中金研究 美联储9月降息25个基点，符合市场预期。美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降 息存在较大分歧。往前看，由于就业数据过于疲软，我们预计联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越高，货币宽松空 间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞 胀"困境。 点击小程序查看报告原文 本次会议前，市场对于美联储降息有很高期待，由于劳动力市场疲软，投资者普遍认为美联储现在必须出手，以防止就业数据进一步下滑。 我们认为美联储较好回应了市场的关切，但也保持了克制。 首先，从政策立场看，美联储如期降息，并将就业放缓作为降息的理由。货币政策声明称， 决策者认为"就业方面的下行风险有所上升"，尽管他们也认为"通胀水平有所回升，且依然偏高"[1]。换句话说，就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的顾 虑，成为政策调整的直接推动力。 然而，市场此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现。 从投票结果来看[2]，本周二刚刚就任理事的米兰投下了反对票，因其主张应降息50个基点，这符合市场 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Bullish reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93 in Q2, significantly exceeding the average analyst estimate of $0.03 [1] - The company achieved adjusted revenue of $57 million in Q2, slightly below the estimate of $60.7 million [1] - Bullish expects adjusted Ebitda for Q3 to be between $25 million and $28 million, a substantial increase from $8.1 million in Q2 [3] Group 2: Trading Volume and Market Activity - The trading volume for Bullish surged to $179.6 billion in Q2, up from $133.0 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - For the upcoming quarter, Bullish anticipates trading volume to range between $133.0 billion and $142.0 billion [2] Group 3: Stock Performance and Regulatory Approval - Bullish's stock price increased by 44% from its IPO price of $37, currently trading at $53.54 [3] - The firm secured a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, a crucial regulatory approval for expansion in the U.S., leading to a 4.5% increase in post-market trading [4] Group 4: Market Trends - Crypto prices experienced significant growth from April to June, with Bitcoin rising by 30%, making it the best-performing major asset globally [5] - The CoinDesk20 Index, which tracks the broader crypto market, increased by 23% during the same period [5]

Core Insights - Defiance has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on "basis trading" strategies, one linked to Bitcoin and the other to Ethereum [1] Group 1: ETF Details - The proposed ETFs will allow investors to engage in a strategy that capitalizes on the price differences between the spot market and futures contracts, aiming for stable returns while minimizing exposure to significant price volatility [1] - The trading codes for the ETFs are set to be "NBIT" for the Bitcoin-related fund and "DETH" for the Ethereum-related fund [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Bitcoin ETF will purchase shares of Bitcoin spot funds, such as BlackRock's IBIT, and short Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1] - Expected returns from the Bitcoin ETF will derive from the price differences between the two markets, influenced by factors such as volatility and demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are expected to enter a "ballistic phase" following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, despite potential short-term volatility and pullbacks [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to implement its first rate cut of the current cycle to alleviate pressure on consumers and businesses [1]. - This pivot may lead to increased liquidity, potentially driving equity markets higher, although initial reactions may not reflect the longer-term trend [2]. Economic Disconnection - There is a growing disconnect between financial markets and the real economy, with stock indices, particularly the S&P 500, rising due to trends like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency enthusiasm [3]. - Despite market optimism, the labor market is showing signs of strain, including declining job openings, rising unemployment, and increasing consumer stress due to the cost of living [3][4]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts at large financial institutions may be misinterpreting the current situation by focusing on asset prices and monetary policy rather than the struggles of ordinary households [4]. - A recession is viewed as inevitable, despite the short-term market exuberance that may follow the Fed's rate cut, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the optimism on Wall Street compared to the challenges faced by Main Street [4][5].

格隆汇9月17日｜加密交易平台Bullish盘初走高，现涨超4%，公司获纽约BitLicense牌照，将扩展美国 市场。 ...

Macro Dynamics - The Chinese Foreign Ministry commented on the recent postponement or cancellation of concerts by Korean artists in China, indicating that China does not oppose healthy cultural exchanges between China and South Korea [2] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced the establishment of five industry standardization technical committees, including those for automotive circulation and pharmaceutical circulation [3] Financial Data - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August 2025, the securities transaction stamp duty reached 118.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7% [4] - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from September 1 to 14 totaled 732,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, while the cumulative retail sales for the year reached 15.497 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9% [5][6] Market Performance - On September 17, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% and the ChiNext Index up 1.95%. The total trading volume was approximately 23,767.46 billion yuan [9] - The financing balance of the two markets increased by 22.54 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 1,205.86 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 1,162.11 billion yuan [10] Company News - Xinhua Insurance reported a cumulative original insurance premium income of 158.086 billion yuan from January to August 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21% [8] - Tempus Co., Ltd. announced that its stock will resume trading on September 18, 2025, after a significant price increase, but noted uncertainties regarding control changes and potential risks of a rapid decline in stock price [13] - Peak's chairman denied reports of a company-wide salary reduction, stating that the overall reduction was less than 10% and not applicable to all employees [14] - Mindray Medical responded to rumors of a potential secondary listing in Hong Kong, confirming that it would rely on official announcements for information [15]

Core Insights - 21Shares has launched two new physically backed crypto ETPs, reaching a total of 50 listed ETPs in Europe, solidifying its position as the largest issuer in the market [1][3][2] - The company manages over $11 billion in assets under management (AUM), demonstrating the scale and resilience of its product offerings [2][3] Company Overview - 21Shares is recognized as one of the leading providers of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs), offering the largest suite of physically backed crypto ETPs globally [4] - Founded to enhance accessibility to cryptocurrency for investors, 21Shares aims to bridge traditional finance with decentralized finance [4] New Product Launches - The 21Shares Artificial Superintelligence Alliance ETP (AFET) provides exposure to a decentralized AI ecosystem, while the 21Shares Raydium ETP (ARAY) offers access to Raydium, a leading decentralized exchange protocol [6] - These new ETPs are designed to democratize access to innovative sectors within the crypto economy [6]

目前硅谷楼市中，每四笔交易中就有一笔是以全现金完成。 美国房地产市场的低迷态势仍在延续，但硅谷地区却上演着火热景象。 根据全美住房建筑商协会（NAHB）9月16日发布的数据，九月份房屋建筑商信心指数持续徘徊于低 位。该月有65%的建筑商提供了某种形式的购房优惠，报告降价的建筑商比例达到39%，为疫情以来的 最高水平。 然而，硅谷却呈现出截然不同的景气度。"我有时与得克萨斯州等地的同行交流，当我提到硅谷的房屋 成交价始终高于挂牌价时，他们都感到难以置信。"美国房产经纪公司Compass经纪人、硅谷房地产经 纪人协会全球商业理事会主席马克·王（Mark Wong）告诉第一财经记者。 "硅谷最不缺的就是现金买家" 尽管美国房地产市场整体趋于停滞，湾区尤其是硅谷的住房市场却依然价格高企。根据房地产信息提供 商Realtor.com，在旧金山，购房者需年收入达到26.3万美元才可负担中位价房屋，圣何塞的这一门槛更 是高达37万美元。 深耕北加州市场二十年的加州佩隆居地产（Pellego）合伙人甄勇斌（Barry Zhen）向第一财经记者举例 称："距离硅谷约一小时车程的都柏林（Dublin），2024年人口流入增长率高 ...

在特朗普对英国进行国事访问之际，微软、英伟达、谷歌、Salesforce等科技巨头官宣加码英国投资。 9月16日，英国科学创新与技术部在一份声明中表示，英国与美国达成一项里程碑式的"科技繁荣协 议"。未来美国科技巨头将在英国为人工智能系统、量子计算计划和其他科技项目投入超过310亿英镑 （423亿美元）。 微软将在英国投资300亿美元 微软周二表示，计划在2025年至2028年间在英国投资300亿美元，其中包括155亿美元的额外资本投入和 151亿美元的本地运营投资。这是该公司在英国最大的财务承诺。 微软称，这笔投资将推动其建设英国"最大规模的超级计算机"，该项目将配置超过2.3万块先进GPU芯 片，并与英国云计算公司Nscale合作完成。 微软总裁布拉德·史密斯在周二的电话会议中表示，他对英国的态度近年来有所转变。他曾在2023年批 评英国监管机构试图阻止微软以690亿美元收购动视暴雪。该交易后来获得英国竞争监管机构的批准。 史密斯说："我并不是每天都对英国的商业环境保持乐观。"但他补充道，"我对英国政府过去几年的举 措感到非常鼓舞。" "就在几年前，由于当时的监管环境，以及还没有这种规模的AI投资需求，这 ...

在特朗普对英国进行国事访问之际，微软、英伟达、谷歌、Salesforce等科技巨头官宣加码英国投资。 9月16日，英国科学创新与技术部在一份声明中表示，英国与美国达成一项里程碑式的"科技繁荣协议"。未来美国科技巨头将在英国为人工智能 系统、量子计算计划和其他科技项目投入超过310亿英镑（423亿美元）。 微软将在英国投资300亿美元 微软周二表示，计划在2025年至2028年间在英国投资300亿美元，其中包括155亿美元的额外资本投入和151亿美元的本地运营投资。这是该公司 在英国最大的财务承诺。 微软称，这笔投资将推动其建设英国"最大规模的超级计算机"，该项目将配置超过2.3万块先进GPU芯片，并与英国云计算公司Nscale合作完成。 微软总裁布拉德·史密斯在周二的电话会议中表示，他对英国的态度近年来有所转变。他曾在2023年批评英国监管机构试图阻止微软以690亿美元 收购动视暴雪。该交易后来获得英国竞争监管机构的批准。 谷歌表示，未来两年将在英国投入约68亿美元用于AI、研发和相关工程。 史密斯说："我并不是每天都对英国的商业环境保持乐观。"但他补充道，"我对英国政府过去几年的举措感到非常鼓舞。" "就在 ...