【编者按】 这是我们连续第五年推出"识局"特别策划。 每年广州两会期间，南方都市报都会邀请市局委办"一把手"回顾过往、展望将来，既交发展成绩单，也 谈发展新思路。这一策划已经成为政府回应期待、解读局势、凝聚共识的重要载体。 过去五年，广州发动产业与创新"双引擎"，以"识局"之智，实现跨越与突破。今年是"十五五"的开局之 年，如何承接"十四五"之成绩，为奔赴下一个五年开好局、起好步，尤为重要。 新鲜出炉的2026年广州市政府工作报告，围绕"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，着眼于今年之可 为，部署了深入挖掘内外需潜力、加快建设"12218"现代化产业体系、统筹推进教育科技人才一体发 展、持续深化重点领域改革等十个方面的重点工作。 这将带来怎样的新期待和新变化？"识局"邀请了二十位市局委办的"一把手"，解读广州2026年的新局 势，展望"十五五"时期的预期目标和实现路径。 当前财政收支"紧平衡"成为常态。广州财政如何优化资金配置，确保钱花在"刀刃"上？"核心理念是优 化排序、打破固化"，今年广州市两会期间，市财政局党组书记、局长姚露接受南都专访。 他表示，过去一年，广州完善支出预算分类排序机制，优化市级支出体系 ...

Group 1 - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance domestic demand and drive high-quality development [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5%, indicating significant resilience despite multiple challenges [7][8] - The number of stocks priced over 100 yuan in the A-share market reached a historical high of 222, with notable technology companies dominating the list [5] Group 2 - The Supreme People's Procuratorate announced a crackdown on financial fraud and market manipulation to ensure the safety of the capital market [4] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining attention, with successful satellite launches and expectations of industry growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [10] - Positive announcements include Pingzhi Information winning a 4.89 billion yuan computing project, while negative announcements involve Western Gold's major shareholder reducing its stake by 1% [11][16]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences on January 20 to discuss economic-related topics, focusing on the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference and the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic and social development [1]. Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The morning press conference at 10 AM will feature Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, who will discuss the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit and the efforts to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The press conference will also include a Q&A session for journalists to inquire about specific measures and strategies related to economic policy [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Role - The afternoon press conference at 3 PM will have Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, presenting on the role of proactive fiscal policy in driving high-quality economic and social development [1]. - Similar to the morning session, this conference will also provide an opportunity for journalists to ask questions regarding fiscal measures and their expected impact on the economy [1].

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences on January 20, 2026, both related to the economy [1][4] - The morning press conference will feature Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, discussing the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit and promoting a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The afternoon press conference will include Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, who will introduce the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic and social development [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission will discuss the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference and the promotion of a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan during a press conference on January 20 [1] - The Ministry of Finance will introduce the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic and social development in a separate press conference on the same day [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses two important press conferences scheduled for January 20, focusing on economic matters [2][3][6] - The first press conference will feature Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, discussing the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit and promoting a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The second press conference will have Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, explaining the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic and social development [6]

Core Viewpoint - The infrastructure investment growth rate in China has experienced a rare decline in 2025, marking the first drop since 2014, with a total fixed asset investment of approximately 48.5 trillion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Trends - In 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2%, contrasting with previous years of high growth [1] - The growth rate of infrastructure investment has shown a "high at the beginning, low at the end" pattern, aligning with the overall economic growth pace, influenced by tight local finances and limited quality project reserves [2][1] - The monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2025 started at 5.8% in Q1 but slowed to 4.6% in H1 and further to 1.1% in Q3, ultimately resulting in an annual decline [1] Group 2: Funding Sources and Fiscal Policy - The main sources of funding for infrastructure investment include self-raised funds, national budget funds, domestic loans, foreign investment, and other funds, with a significant reduction in net financing from local government bonds due to strict regulations [3] - In 2025, the general public budget expenditure for infrastructure investment saw a decline, with agricultural, forestry, and water expenditures down 13.6%, and urban and rural community expenditures down 8.3% [3] - The fiscal expenditure structure is optimizing, with increased spending on social welfare sectors like education and healthcare, indicating a shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people," which may not immediately reflect in infrastructure investment but supports long-term human capital development [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The 2026 economic outlook is expected to improve, with a projected GDP growth of 5.0% and a focus on stabilizing investment, increasing central budget investment, and optimizing local government bond usage [4] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant national projects entering the preparatory phase, suggesting that once funding is secured, these projects can drive economic growth [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated early projects for 2026, with a total investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the modern infrastructure system [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools to enhance their effectiveness [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting high-quality economic development and maintaining ample liquidity [2] - Recent measures include eight policy actions from the central bank, indicating room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2] Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand - "Expanding domestic demand" is prioritized in China's economic agenda, with multiple ministries focusing on boosting consumption [3] - The Ministry of Finance highlights the importance of supporting a strong domestic market and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption [3] - The National Business Work Conference emphasizes the creation of the "Buy in China" brand and the development of new growth points in service consumption [3] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Mitigation - Risk prevention is a key focus across various ministries, with the People's Bank of China addressing financial risks in key sectors [4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to effectively manage risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, focusing on both existing and new risks [4] - The National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Conference stresses stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures [4]

Core Insights - Zhejiang's general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 886.51 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, with tax revenue contributing 717.28 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase, accounting for 80.9% of the total budget revenue [1] - The province is committed to supporting technological innovation, with significant investments in major projects and platforms, including 3.351 billion yuan for provincial laboratories and 1.750 billion yuan for over 400 major technology projects [1] - A proactive fiscal policy is emphasized to stabilize and improve the economy, with a total funding guarantee exceeding 600 billion yuan for 2025, including 104.28 billion yuan from provincial funds [1] Economic Policies - Zhejiang is implementing the "Two New" policy to boost domestic demand, allocating 1.546 billion yuan for a consumption upgrade program, while also enhancing its open platforms to include offshore trade tax incentives [2] - The province is focused on optimizing the business environment for the private sector, with 99.3% of projects funded by the "4+1" special fund being private, and 80% of government procurement contracts awarded to small and micro enterprises [2] Social Welfare - In 2025, social welfare spending in Zhejiang is set at 952.996 billion yuan, making up 76.4% of the general public budget expenditure, continuing a trend of over two-thirds of budget spending directed towards social welfare for 22 consecutive years [2] - Specific allocations include 8.5 billion yuan for basic pension insurance and 2.637 billion yuan for childcare subsidies, alongside improvements in education and healthcare funding [3] Future Outlook - As 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Zhejiang's fiscal strategy will align with the "4+1" requirements and the provincial government's overall work deployment, aiming for decisive progress and a vibrant economic landscape [3]

Core Insights - The meeting held on January 16 summarized the fiscal work of the province for 2025 and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, analyzing the current fiscal economic situation and planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The province's fiscal work has successfully completed its expected goals, significantly enhancing its fiscal strength during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1 - The provincial fiscal system focused on key areas such as political agency construction, implementation of proactive fiscal policies, scientific fiscal management, and risk prevention, achieving all target tasks for 2025 [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize principles such as ecological priority, green development, and ensuring safety while preventing risks, providing solid fiscal support for achieving socialist modernization alongside the nation [1] Group 2 - For 2026, the focus will be on maintaining a stable yet progressive work approach, with "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" as the main line of work to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy [1] - The province aims to implement more proactive fiscal policies, strengthen financial support for major strategic tasks, promote green and low-carbon transformation, and improve people's livelihoods while preventing fiscal operation risks [1]