投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 1.92 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 1340 亿元。政治局会议指出 2026 年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策和 ...

持续扩大内需和优化供给需要更加积极有为的宏观政策予以支撑。会议指出将继续实施更加积极的财政 政策。在财政资金使用上，需把"投资于物和投资于人"紧密结合在一起。"投资于物"意味着加强重点领 域财力保障，全力支持高水平科技自立自强、建设现代化产业体系、推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型 等。"投资于人"则聚焦加强民生保障，财税资源将优先保障教育、社会保障等基本公共服务，加大对普 惠养老和育儿支持体系的财政补贴与税收激励力度。 一方面，大力提振消费，激活高品质消费需求仍是关键。重点培育新业态、打造新场景，将有效降低居 民消费成本与企业创新门槛，激发市场对智能化、绿色化、高品质产品和服务的需求，为强大国内市场 注入持续的内生动力。此外，还应加大对服务消费领域的支持力度，如对养老托育、文化旅游、健康体 育等给予补贴支持或发放消费券，促进服务市场增量扩围。近年来以旧换新政策取得了积极成效，未来 在对家电、汽车等传统耐用消费品支持的基础上，可考虑将政策支持范围进一步扩充至智能家居、低碳 建材等更广泛的商品类别。 另一方面，着力扩大有效投资，夯实内需增长基础，也是当务之急。"十五五"时期，一批国家重大战略 实施和重点领域安全能力建 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。这是中央经济工作会议的前瞻会议， 为明年中国经济发展确定方向。 2025年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经 济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年 奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。 "从会议来看，宏观政策操作仍以宽松为基调，但体现出显著的政策'效能'大于政策'规模'的特征。"远 东资信研究院副院长张林告诉《华夏时报》记者。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟也在解读会议内容时对《华夏时报》记者表示，稳中求进的表述指向 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，经济增速目标设置在5%左右的概率较大。 宏观政策微调 "十四五"时期，我国在复杂严峻的内外环境中迎难而上，为"十五五"时期的发展奠定了坚实的基础。 不过，中国人 ...

2026年政策延续偏松,但重视"跨周期"及"提质增效" 12月8日，新华社发布政治局会议通稿。通稿提及"宏观政策更加积极有为"，"继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策",表明2026年整体基调延续积极,不过细节表述也有变化: 一是,经济工作表述新增"提质增效"。 图说金融(20251209) : 二是,提及"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度",政策可能兼顾短期及中长期。 由此,我们对2026年财政及货币政策看法是: 固定收益组 程小庆 邮箱: chengxiaoging@citicsf.com 从业资格号: F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 从业资格号:F03105230 投资咨询号:Z0021341 固定收益组 张 陆 邮箱: zhanglu2@citicsf.com 固定收益组 甘 青 邮箱: ganqing@citicsf.com 从业资格号:F03124127 投资咨询号:Z0023461 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相 ...

回顾:以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1223亿元7天期逆回购操作,操 作利率1. 40%,投标量1223亿元,中标量1223亿元。当日1076亿元逆回购到 期,据此计算,单日净投放147亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期,其中周一至周五分别 到期1076亿元、1563亿元、793亿元、1808亿元、1398亿元。中共中央政治 局会议指出,明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实提升宏观经济治理效能。其中, 货币政策延续适度宽松的基调。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/12/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DROO1 | 1.30 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘继续收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 | | | | | 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出， | | | | | 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 | | | | | 松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， | | | | | 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 | | | | | 2、海关总署最新数据显示，2025 年 11 月中国出口汽车 81.8 万辆；1-11 月累计出 | | | | | 口 733.1 万辆 ...

中国证券报 ·提振消费服务民生财政政策将更加积极 今年以来，积极财政政策持续发力，政策效应不断释放。中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议提出，明年 经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。专家表 示，下一步，财政政策将延续积极取向，在提振消费方面，除综合运用财政补贴、贷款贴息等政策工具 外，还将着力"投资于人"，把更多资金资源用于服务民生，针对公共服务的短板弱项精准施策，激发消 费动能。 ·"赚一天亏两天" 理财净值波动引投资者热议 "买入就亏损，还不能赎回""赚一天亏两天""在封闭期跌了怎么办"……近期，社交平台上关于银行理财 产品收益波动的讨论持续升温。部分理财产品净值近期为何出现回撤？投资者该如何应对？记者调研发 现，此次理财市场扰动主要源于12月以来债券市场的调整。业内人士普遍认为，当前债市调整属短期现 象，基本面与政策面未出现显著利空，投资者无需过度恐慌，锚定长期价值、匹配自身需求才是理性之 举。 ·A股市场资金面回暖跨年行情有望徐徐展开 新华财经北京12月9日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下： 12月8日，A股市场放量上涨，深证成指涨逾1%，创业板指涨逾2%。整个 ...

| 1、央行公告称，12月8日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1223亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1223 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 亿元，中标量1223亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1076亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放147亿元。 | | | | 2、中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续 | | 实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 | | 度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持 | | | | 改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 | | 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化 | | 解重点领域风险。 | | | | 3、12月3日，中共中央在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就今年经济形势和明年经济工作听取各民主党派中央、全国工 | | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/9 星期二 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 4574.40 | 4557.00 | 4535.80 | 4487.80 | | 前日收盘价 4613.20 | 4597.40 | 4576.00 | 4529.00 | | 涨跌 35.00 沪深300 | 38.20 | 36.40 | 37.40 | | 涨跌幅 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.83 | | 成交量 76082.00 | 7171.00 | 31206.00 | 6069.00 | | 持仓量 1328 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the economic situation and market trends of various commodities. It points out that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, aiming to promote stable economic development and improve quality and efficiency. The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and macro - economic indicators [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on Taiwan, emphasizing that Asian neighbors and the international community should remain vigilant and urging Japan to reflect on its actions [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and highlighting the importance of people's livelihood and economic planning [6]. - **Industry News**: From January to November, the sales revenue of the mobile communication equipment retail industry and the household appliance retail industry increased by 20.3% and 26.5% respectively year - on - year, and the sales revenue of new energy passenger cars increased by 19.1% year - on - year [6]. II. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.35%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.87%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 2.16%, and LME copper increased by 0.09% on December 8 compared with December 7 [7]. III. Morning Comments on Major Commodities - **Financial Commodities** - **Stock Index**: Before the policies of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and funds may be more cautious. After the policies are clear, market risk appetite is expected to increase [8]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term Treasury bond futures prices remain weak due to factors such as the expected increase in policy introduction, the reduction of demand for long - term Treasury bonds, and the impact of new fund sales regulations [2][9][10]. - **Energy and Chemical Commodities** - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse. The US labor market shows signs of stagnation, and the sanctions on Russian oil companies may have only a short - term impact on supply [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is expected to be weak in the short term. The domestic methanol plant operating rate has increased, and the coastal inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level [12]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weak, and demand supports the stable operation of the all - steel tire industry [13]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are in a low - level oscillation process. The downstream demand is stable, but market sentiment is affected by the weakness of crude oil and other commodities [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market is cautious. The adjustment effect of the glass supply side needs time, and the supply - demand digestion pressure of soda ash increases [15][16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Although precious metals are weakly volatile in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and central bank gold purchases [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mining supply disruptions [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but market sentiment needs to be concerned [19]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term aluminum price may face a correction. The long - term supply limitation and low inventory support the aluminum price, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current price of lithium carbonate has a high risk of chasing up. In the long term, it is recommended to take a bullish approach after a correction [21][22]. - **Black Commodities** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The demand for coking coal and coke is affected by the expected reduction in iron - making production, but policy expectations may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. The market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the low inventory level of steel mills and the obvious discount of the futures price support the price [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the positive macro - expectations and the stability of raw material prices support the price [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The protein meal is expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is accelerating, and the domestic supply expectation is sufficient, which puts pressure on the price [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are running weakly. The palm oil production recovery is lower than expected, but inventory accumulation may limit the upside. The arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply shortage expectation of rapeseed oil [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The international sugar price is affected by the production and export situation of Brazil and India, while the domestic supply pressure is increasing seasonally [29]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but the upside space may be limited [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract of container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline further. The market is affected by factors such as the supply - demand relationship and the potential resumption of shipping in the Red Sea [31].