十五五开局

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2025年7月政治局会议学习:“十四五”收官,“十五五”开局
Bank of China Securities· 2025-07-31 02:32
Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, contributing significantly to economic performance[3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[3] - The need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy was highlighted, including accelerating government bond issuance and promoting a decline in social financing costs[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption, particularly through recently introduced childcare subsidies[4] - Focus on effective investment and the implementation of policies to optimize market competition and regulate local investment attraction behaviors[4] Risk Management - Key areas for risk prevention include addressing risks in the real estate sector, managing local government debt, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets[4] - The report identifies several external risks, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic expectations[3] Strategic Outlook - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will focus on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a critical transition period for economic strategy[2] - The meeting acknowledged the complex and changing development environment, emphasizing the need to leverage domestic advantages while adapting to external challenges[2]