关注扩大内需政策接续 ——1 1 月经济数据解读 2025 证 12 证 15 证 ⚫ 核心观点： 11 证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证 1-11 证证 GDP 证证证证证证 4.9% 证11 证证证证证证证证证证 4.8% 证证证 4.9% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证 证证 证证证证证证证证 11 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1.3% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1-11 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 -2.6% 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2026 证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 ⚫ 消费：商品 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月13日 宏观经济周报 2026 总量为结构让位 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | --- | | 0755-22940456 | 0755-81982035 | | lizn@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980516060001 | S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师：王奕群 | 证券分析师：董德志 | | | 021-60933158 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cndongdz@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980525110002 | S0980513100001 | | 基础数据 | | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | -1.70 | | --- | --- | | 社零总额当月同比 | 2.90 | | 出口当月同比 | 5.90 | | M2 | 8.00 | 本周，中央政治局会议与中央经济工作会议为 2026 年经济工作定调，释放 出政策重心从"总量增长"向"结构优化"转换的清晰信号。 政策总基调出现微妙而关键的表述变化， ...

记者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 根据各地披露的发债信息，11月地方新增专项债发行规模预计为4922亿元，较上月增长了超 2000亿元。与此同时，11月用于偿还存量债务的地方再融资债券（又称特殊再融资债券）发行 规模为1767亿元，较上月增长了超1300亿元。 11月新增专项债和特殊再融资债券规模大幅攀升的背后，在于5000亿元地方债结存限额的加快 发行。10月17日，财政部相关负责人表示，从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地 方，支持地方化解存量政府投资项目债务、消化政府拖欠企业账款、部分省份项目建设等。其 中，3000亿元用于化债，2000亿元用于稳投资。 8月以来，贵州、海南、辽宁、广东、福建、安徽、浙江、江苏、湖北、重庆、山东等诸多省 份，都分得一定规模的额度，相继发行了特殊再融资债券。比如11月28日，广东还将发行一批 再融资债券，包括再融资专项债和再融资一般债，规模总计约22亿元，募集资金投向为"偿还 存量债务"。 12月份仍有一定额度的再融资债券有待发行。从目前披露信息来看，仅12月1日和12月2日， 内蒙古、山西、宁波还将发行一批特殊再融资债券，规模合计约278亿元。 化债无疑是今年地方债的 ...

Group 1 - Germany established a groundbreaking infrastructure fund worth €500 billion to address economic challenges, marking the largest investment project in decades [1] - A survey conducted by the German-Chinese Chamber of Commerce and KPMG revealed that 40% of Chinese enterprises in Germany see new business opportunities from this fund, with key focus areas being digitalization (51%), energy (48%), and electric vehicles (35%) [1] - Despite the interest, only 15% of surveyed Chinese companies are seeking partnerships in Germany, and 10% plan to participate in public tenders, citing high labor costs and regulatory barriers as major challenges [1] Group 2 - The infrastructure fund's implementation has been slow, with reports indicating that funds are being misallocated rather than used wisely, raising concerns about trust in fiscal policy [2] - Among Chinese companies looking to invest in Europe, 41% plan to expand their operations, with 21% choosing Germany as their preferred destination, followed by Hungary (18%) and Poland (12%) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from October 6th to October 10th, 2025. The national high - frequency fundamental index shows an expanding year - on - year increase, while the bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged. Different sectors have different trends, such as a slight decline in real - estate sales, an expanding increase in infrastructure investment, etc. [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Total Index - The national high - frequency fundamental index is 128.1 points (previous value: 128.0 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.9 points (previous increase: 5.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The bull - bear signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value: 5.0%). [1][8][9] Production - The high - frequency industrial production index is 127.3 (previous value: 127.2), with a year - on - year increase of 5.5 points (previous increase: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The electric - furnace operating rate slightly declined, with the current rate at 59.6% (previous value: 60.3%). [1][8][14] Real - Estate Sales - The high - frequency real - estate sales index is 42.3 (previous value: 42.4), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous decrease: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The land premium rate of large and medium - sized cities increased, with the current rate at 4.8% (previous value: 1.9%), while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased to 11.4 million square meters (previous value: 25.7 million square meters). [1][9][22] Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency infrastructure investment index is 121.8 (previous value: 121.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.1 points (previous increase: 7.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average pig - iron output slightly declined to 241.5 tons (previous value: 241.8 tons). [1][9][36] Export - The high - frequency export index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous increase: 1.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index continued to decline to 1015 points (previous value: 1087 points), and the RJ/CRB index decreased to 299.3 points (previous value: 300.3 points). [1][9][39] Consumption - The high - frequency consumption index is 120.6 (previous value: 120.5), with a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous increase: 3.5 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The daily average box office of movies slightly declined to 14,803 million yuan (previous value: 15,858 million yuan). [1][9][50] CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast remains at 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%). The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline to 18.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 19.3 yuan/kg). [2][9][57] PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The crude - oil price slightly declined, with the Brent crude - oil futures settlement price at 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel), while the copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price is 10,718 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10,358 US dollars/ton), and the LME aluminum spot settlement price is 2,753 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,685 US dollars/ton). [2][9][60] Transportation - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.5 (previous value: 131.3), with a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points (previous increase: 9.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined to 3,097 million person - times (previous value: 3,550 million person - times). [2][9][72] Inventory - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.4 (previous value: 162.3), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.6 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic - aluminum inventory declined to 13.6 million tons (previous value: 18.8 million tons). [2][9][78] Financing - The high - frequency financing index is 239.2 (previous value: 238.6), with a year - on - year increase of 30.2 points (previous increase: 30.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The net financing of local government bonds is negative, with a value of - 246 billion yuan (previous value: 632 billion yuan). [2][9][89]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate sector is characterized as a "three low" industry (low price-to-book ratio, low positioning, low attention), suggesting that the valuation gap will eventually close [3][5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant challenges, with broad infrastructure investment growth declining by 1.9% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the first negative growth in two years [6][9] - The construction investment growth rate in July 2025 was negative 5.1%, indicating a severe decline in local government-funded projects and highlighting fiscal difficulties [6][9] Key Points and Arguments - Real estate stocks are not to be viewed pessimistically; the market is in a phase of orderly expansion, and the sector's win rate is high due to its low valuation metrics [3][5] - In July 2025, real estate investment fell by 17.1%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3%, both showing significant declines and marking a critical turning point [11] - The cash flow situation in the real estate market has improved compared to last year, with financing costs and completion rates showing strength, suggesting potential recovery in construction data in the second half of the year [2] - The introduction of special bonds and government debt in July has significantly increased, aiding in resolving real estate debt issues and enhancing macroeconomic stability [7] Notable Companies and Their Performance - Companies like Vanke, JinDi, Longfor, and New Town are identified as having high elasticity due to improved competitive dynamics [8] - Service-oriented companies such as Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc, and China Overseas Property are also highlighted for their dividend performance in the mid-year reports [8] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include Oriental Yuhong and Henkel Group, which are expected to perform well due to improved market conditions [19] Risks and Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-year reports for construction companies are anticipated to be risky, with potential for lower-than-expected performance due to increased receivables and declining revenues [13][16] - Despite short-term risks, there is potential for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly for companies with mineral resource attributes, such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway [14] - The cement industry is projected to face a demand decline of 4.5% for the year, with July's demand down by 5.6% [17] Additional Insights - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved fundamentals and reduced price wars, which may lead to enhanced profitability [18] - The western region's infrastructure projects are expected to significantly impact the building materials industry, with strong demand and funding availability [24] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions cautiously in anticipation of potential volatility following the mid-year report disclosures [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the acceleration in the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds, which is significantly supporting infrastructure investment and overall economic growth [1][2]. - From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year-on-year, contributing 43.0% to total investment growth, which is 6.0 percentage points higher than the first half of the year [1]. - As of August 15, approximately 28,369 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, representing a 39.7% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. Group 2 - The issuance efficiency of new special bonds has improved, with over 2.8 trillion yuan issued this year, surpassing 64% of the annual target, which is higher than the 52% of the previous year [2]. - The funds from the bonds are primarily directed towards infrastructure and real estate sectors, indicating a focus on stabilizing the economy and boosting domestic demand [2]. - The third quarter is expected to be a peak period for bond issuance, with projections that new local government bonds will accelerate and be largely utilized by the end of the year [3].

Economic Performance - In July, China's retail sales growth declined to 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June and below the market expectation of 4.6%[2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell significantly by 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, much lower than the expected 2.7%[3] - Industrial production growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7%, also below the market expectation of 6.0%[5] Sector-Specific Insights - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year in July, worsening from a decline of 11.2% in June[3] - Retail sales of automobiles dropped by 1.5% in July, contrasting with a growth of 4.6% in June[2] - The manufacturing investment growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%[7] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to introduce additional fiscal support of 0.5-1 trillion yuan by the end of September to bolster economic recovery[1] - Recent policies include a nationwide childcare subsidy starting in 2025, which is projected to directly aid consumption[10] - The central bank may implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of September[14]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit of HKD 11.32 billion for the first half of 2025, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in EBITDA by 9% to HKD 56.98 billion [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 240.66 billion, up 3% from HKD 232.64 billion in the same period of 2024 [2][4]. - EBITDA decreased to HKD 56.98 billion from HKD 63.42 billion, reflecting a 9% decline [2][4]. - EBIT also fell to HKD 23.16 billion from HKD 30.96 billion, indicating a significant drop [2][4]. - Basic earnings per share were reported at HKD 0.22, down from HKD 2.66 in the previous year [5]. Port Business Performance - The port business generated revenue of HKD 235.97 billion (approximately RMB 215.73 billion), a 9% increase compared to the first half of 2024 [7]. - EBITDA for the port segment was HKD 87.19 billion, up 10%, while EBIT rose by 12% to HKD 65.08 billion [7]. - Growth in the port business was driven by increased throughput at key ports and a significant rise in storage revenue from Mexico and Europe [7]. Strategic Developments - The company completed a major strategic transaction by merging its UK telecom business with Vodafone UK in May 2025, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [4][5]. - The company is currently in discussions to invite major investors from mainland China to participate in the port business sale, which is anticipated to take longer than initially planned [3][11]. Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company held cash and liquid investments totaling HKD 1,372.68 billion (approximately RMB 1,254.9 billion) [8]. - The total debt amounted to HKD 2,565.89 billion, with a net debt of HKD 1,193.21 billion, resulting in a net debt to total capital ratio of 14.7% [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has increased over 30% year-to-date, closing at HKD 52 on August 14, 2025, with a total market capitalization of nearly HKD 1,992 billion [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points (previous value: 126.9 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.4 points (previous increase: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds was 4.7% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index was 126.3 (previous value: 126.2), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales was 43.4 (previous value: 43.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment was 120.1 (previous value: 120.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase: 4.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded; the high - frequency index for exports was 143.8 (previous value: 143.9), with a week - on - week increase of 3.1 points (previous increase: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption was 119.8 (previous value: 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.7 points (previous increase: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency index for inventory was 161.1 (previous value: 161.1), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The high - frequency index for transportation was 129.6 (previous value: 129.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The high - frequency index for financing was 233.9 (previous value: 233.3), with a week - on - week increase of 29.7 points (previous increase: 29.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [2][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, and financing was constructed, and the Guosheng Fixed - Income Fundamental High - Frequency Index and its sub - items were developed [8]. - During August 4 - 8, 2025, the Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points and an expanding growth rate [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Declined Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate was 63.5% (previous value: 62.8%); the polyester operating rate was 86.2% (previous value: 86.8%); the semi - tire operating rate was 74.4% (previous value: 74.5%); the full - tire operating rate was 61.0% (previous value: 61.1%); the PTA operating rate was 75.9% (previous value: 79.7%); the PX operating rate was 82.4% (previous value: 82.4%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 38.0 tons (previous value: 47.5 tons) [11][13]. Real Estate Sales: Transaction Land Premium Rate Declined - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 17.9 square meters (previous value: 24.4 square meters); the transaction land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.6% (previous value: 9.0%) [22]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declined - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants was 31.7% (previous value: 33.1%) [32]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continued to Decline - The CCFI index was 1201 points (previous value: 1232 points); the RJ/CRB index was 293.6 points (previous value: 301.9 points) [39]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continued to Rise - The daily average movie box office was 24,143 yuan (previous value: 23,068 yuan) [52]. CPI: Vegetable Wholesale Prices Continued to Rise - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.4 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.2 yuan/kg) [59]. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continued to Rise - The ex - works price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton (previous value: 658 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 72 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9613 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9672 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2592 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2596 US dollars/ton) [65]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Remained Stable Overall - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3886 person - times (previous value: 3902 person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights was 14,580 (previous value: 14,562) [77]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increased - The electrolytic aluminum inventory was 19.7 tons (previous value: 18.1 tons); the soda ash inventory was 185.8 tons (previous value: 179.0 tons) [85]. Financing: Local Government Bond Financing Continued to Decline - The net financing of local government bonds was 828 billion yuan (previous value: 2425 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 1973 billion yuan (previous value: 134 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate was 0.7% (previous value: 0.55%); the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate was - 0.9% (previous value: - 1.09%) [93].