Core Viewpoint - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down in June, but overall remains stable in the first half of the year, contributing to economic stability within a reasonable range [1][2][3] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Trends - Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, down from 5.6% in the first five months [1] - Broad infrastructure investment growth, including power and water supply, was approximately 8.9% in the first half, a decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous five months [1] - June saw a significant slowdown in narrow infrastructure investment growth to about 2%, the slowest since August of the previous year [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment - The slowdown in infrastructure investment growth is attributed to weather disturbances, low funding availability, and a significant drop in construction material prices [2] - Long-term trends indicate a shift in funding allocation towards more effective innovation and technology sectors, reducing the impact of government debt on traditional infrastructure investment [2][3] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Funding - Fiscal spending has shifted towards social welfare and technology, with infrastructure-related expenditures showing a slight decline [3] - Government bond issuance has been front-loaded, with cumulative financing of 7.6 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of approximately 4.3 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - The issuance of super long-term special bonds and local government special bonds is set to accelerate in the second half of the year, with approximately 0.75 billion yuan in super long-term bonds and 2.24 trillion yuan in new special bonds expected [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to address capital shortages for project construction, with estimates around 500 billion yuan [5] - Experts suggest that incremental policies may include increasing government borrowing to stimulate infrastructure investment [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from July 7th to July 11th, 2025. It shows that the overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, while different sectors have different trends, such as a decline in real estate sales, an increase in infrastructure investment growth rate, and a narrowing increase in export growth rate [1][9]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.6 points (previous value was 126.5 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value was also an increase of 5.2 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value was 4.8%) [1][9]. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.9 (previous value was 125.8), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value was also an increase of 4.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate drops to 57.1% from 59.0% [1][9][15]. Real Estate Sales: Property Transactions Decline - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 44.0 (previous value was 44.1), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value was also a decrease of 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters, down from 37.8 million square meters [1][9][29]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 119.3 (previous value was 119.0), with a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points (previous value was an increase of 3.0 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 32.7%, up from 31.7% [1][9][39]. Export: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value was 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.4 points (previous value was an increase of 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The CCFI index drops to 1314 points from 1343 points [1][9][45]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Decline - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.6 (previous value was 119.5), with a year - on - year increase of 2.1 points (previous value was an increase of 1.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. Passenger car manufacturers' retail is 39,660 units, down from 95,374 units; wholesale is 38,757 units, down from 154,429 units [1][9][57]. CPI: Fruit Prices Continue to Decline - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value was - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.3 yuan/kg, down from 7.4 yuan/kg [1][9][65]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value was 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,769 US dollars/ton, down from 10,047 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,587 US dollars/ton, down from 2,598 US dollars/ton [1][9][74]. Transportation: Flight Numbers Continue to Rise - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.8 (previous value was 128.6), with a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value was an increase of 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) is 14,401 flights, up from 13,985 flights [2][10][87]. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.8 (previous value was 160.6), with a year - on - year increase of 9.5 points (previous value was an increase of 9.6 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The soda ash inventory is 185.6 million tons, up from 178.9 million tons [2][10][93]. Financing: 6M State - owned Joint - stock Bank Draft Rediscount Rate Decreases - The financing high - frequency index is 231.5 (previous value was 230.9), with a year - on - year increase of 29.5 points (previous value was an increase of 29.4 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The 6M state - owned joint - stock bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91%, down from 1.01% [2][10][103].

二季度5.2%左右的GDP增速或为后续政策提供足够的腾挪空间。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 现在国内经济大致可以分为三条主线，一是贸易摩擦下的出口，二是政策刺激下的投资和消费，三是经济真实的内生动力。 中美贸易摩擦缓和，出口暂 时进入"抢出口2.0"阶段，二季度经济的 真实成色和韧性值得关注。 第一，补贴内外消费增速分化，服务消费增速逐渐回落，显示内生性消费动能变化不大。 1-4月社零累计同比4.7%，其中限额以上"以旧换新"类商品消费同比增长7.2%，拉动社零增长1.1个百分点左右，除"以旧换新"外的商品零售同比增长 4.3%，拉动社零增长3.7个百分点。统计局表示，一季度"以旧换新"拉动社零增长1.6个百分点，则非补贴类商品拉动社零3个百分点左右。 限额以上零售企业更受益于补贴政策， 2024年9月-2025年4月（补贴期间），限额以上零售同比增速3.9%，超过2024年1-8月2.3%的增速水平。 限额以下零售增速在补贴前后增速分别为4.1%、3.9%，并未发生明显变化。 服务消费增速低于去年。 服务消费的报复式反弹结束，增速从2023年的20%逐渐回落至2024年的6.2%和2025年4月的5. ...

国家统计局最新数据显示，今年前4个月，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比增长5.8%。 国家统计局投资司首席统计师罗毅飞称，这一增速比全部投资高1.8个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为32.6%，比一季度提 高2.3个百分点。其中，水利管理业投资增长30.7%，水上运输业投资增长26.9%，航空运输业投资增长13.9%。 根据粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒测算，如果包含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，今年前4个月广义基础设施投资同比增 长10.9%，明显高于同期固定资产投资增速（4%）。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家认为，今年以来基建投资保持较快增长，得益于地方政府专项债券等资金到位较快，地方加大力 度推动重大项目落地。基建投资较快增长对冲了房地产投资下滑影响，有利于稳投资稳经济。 如果包含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，今年前4个月广义基础设施投资同比增长10.9%，明显高于同期固定资产投资增 速（4%）。 复杂外部形势下，中国经济顶住压力稳定增长，基础设施投资稳定增长显然是一个重要因素。 光大证券首席宏观经济学家高瑞东认为，今年以来财政积极发力，前4个月地方新增专项债发行规模完成全年4 ...

经济复苏的成色和分歧 1-2月二手房成交量继续维持高位， 9大样本城市二手房成交面积同比增长25.9%，显著高于-6.9% 的新房成交面积增速。但是二手房成交的复苏并不全面，其中深圳、杭州的二手房成交同比增长 65.6%、46.8%，苏州、青岛、佛山的二手房成交同比增长2.5%、-0.8%、-3.5%，内部分化较 大。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 年初经济平稳开局。 基于工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比增速，预计1-2月GDP不变价增速在5.2% 左右。而3月前三周的高频数据也显示月度GDP同比有望上行至5.4%左右， 对应1季度GDP同比增速 在5.3%左右 。其中，社零同比增长4%，略超市场预期，也处于2023年以来的区间上沿。 但是金融数据和通胀数据的表现一般。 受有效需求偏弱等因素拖累，1-2月CPI、PPI累计同比分别 为-0.1%、-2.2%；3月价格环比依旧偏弱，基于高频数据预测，3月PPI、CPI同比为-2%、0.6%， 对应一季度GDP平减指数为-0.7%，连续8个季度为负。 依靠政府债发行放量（1-2月政府债累计新增2.4万亿，同比多增1.5万亿），社融同比增速从去年末的 8%上行至2 ...

房地产仍是主要拖累，呈现"量价分化"特征。虽然前两月房地产投资同比增速-9.8%较去年有所 改善，但统计局数据显示新房承压，二手房量增价减的情况仍未改变。新房情况来看，新房销 售面积同比降低5.1%，销售金额同比转负至-2.4%。70个大中城市显示的二手房价格除一线城 市外，环比均转负。这与第三方数据也基本吻合，根据冰山指数数据，全国主要城市的二手房 交易虽然活跃度上升，但三月份周度价格环比逐步转负，显示当前二手房仍然是以价换量的状 态，二手房高成交量能否带来房价的上涨最终仍要观察居民收入预期是否有所改善。1-2月房企 新开工面积下降29.6%，也显示土地市场回暖尚未传导至房企开工端，房企资金面压力仍然存 在。 Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读2025年1-2月经济数据 ？ A： 3月17日，国家统计局公布了2025年1-2月中国经济数据，对此我们解读如下： 经济数据开局平稳，呈现结构性亮点。前两月工业增加值累计同比增长5.9%，超出市场预期， 保持平稳增长，其中高技术制造业增速达9.1%，中国科技制造升级趋势仍强。以旧换新叠加春 节假期拉动消费，社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长4%，较去年12月有所改善，随着新 ...