The semiconductor sector is swimming in red ink today, and ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) is one of the primary culprits. The stock is down 6% to trade at $641.56, after the Dutch-based chipmaker reported a lackluster sales forecast. For the second quarter, ASML expects sales between 7.2 and 7.7 billion euros, lower than the 7.8 billion forecast.CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement: "The recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynami ...

韩国财政部：尽管美国暂停对等关税90天，但不确定性依然很高。 ...

"4月2日"大限将至，美股的平稳走势似乎显露出，投资者正在押注明确的贸易政策有助于稳定市场。 隔夜美股主要股指有所回落，但远未达到市场预期经济走向衰退时的程度。虽然标普500指数较2月份创 下的历史高点下跌约8%，但在过去两天已经回升，延续了几周前从低点反弹的趋势。 投资者之所以保持相对乐观，主要基于几点理由： 相信特朗普不会坚持任何会严重拖累经济增长的关税政策。 认为除非看到更明显的经济衰退信号，否则不会押注衰退风险。 相信更多关于特朗普关税计划的信息将减少市场的不确定性。 值得注意的是，虽然市场表现出乐观情绪，但是华尔街大行仍难掩忧心。并且即便更多关税信息正在得 到确定，市场也承认依旧难以把握特朗普政府真正的政策意图，有分析认为关税的"不确定性"可能成为 特朗普团队的谈判筹码。 此前摩根士丹利分析曾认为，4月2日或许不会带来市场期待的确定性，建议关注两个关键问题：公告是 否能明确关税政策，将其从未知变为已知；以及关税增加会否进一步恶化经济前景。 市场困境：特朗普到底想要什么？ 投资者面临的一个重大难题是他们仍不清楚特朗普对关税的真实意图。 如果关税确实旨在筹集大量收入并推动制造商在美国建立生产基地，那么进 ...

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The core viewpoint indicates that major central banks are maintaining their current interest rates amidst increasing uncertainty regarding tariffs, with only the European Central Bank (ECB) implementing a rate cut [2][14] - In the observation period from February 8 to March 23, 2025, among 26 major economies, 7 experienced rate cuts and 1 an increase, while the US, Japan, and the UK kept rates unchanged [2][19] - The Federal Reserve maintained its target federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, reflecting a cautious stance due to heightened economic uncertainty [13][19] Global Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have fluctuated significantly, with market predictions for a potential cut in May reaching around 50% due to economic indicators falling short of expectations [3][19] - Following the release of better-than-expected employment and inflation data in mid-March, the likelihood of a rate cut in May dropped to approximately 20% [3][19] - The European and UK rate cut expectations remain relatively stable, with a 60% probability of a cut in the Eurozone by April 2025 [19] China's Interest Rate Position - China's real interest rates rebounded from 2.2% in January to a range of 3%-3.1% in February-March 2025, positioning it among the highest globally [4][28] - The increase in real interest rates is attributed to the seasonal effects of inflation dissipating post-Spring Festival [4][28] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve decided to slow down its balance sheet reduction, primarily due to disturbances in the Treasury General Account (TGA) caused by the debt ceiling issue [5][33] - As of March 19, 2025, the Fed's reserve balance expanded by approximately $68.3 billion, despite a total balance sheet reduction of $2.04 trillion [5][34] - The liquidity in the repurchase market has returned to a more relaxed state, with the SOFR-EFFR spread turning negative, indicating improved liquidity conditions [8][41] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the US Treasury market has shown increased volatility, but the market remains stable without significant liquidity risks [10][47] - The Libor-OIS spread has widened, indicating a slight increase in liquidity premium, although it has not reached alarming levels [11][50] - Credit risk premiums have seen a slight increase since March 2025, influenced by rising geopolitical uncertainties and tariff concerns [12][53]

特朗普关税策略引发全球经济动荡，其"不确定性"或为极大化谈判筹码。 过去一周来，尽管受到美联储决议和大量期权到期的影响，标普、纳斯达克和罗素指数均小幅上涨，释放出"逐渐恢复正常"的信号。 不过，高盛交易员Mike Washington在最新的报告中指出： "虽然本土仓位受到的上行风险可以说大于下行风险，但在投资者扫清4月2日关税障碍以及对第一季度盈利有更清晰的解读之前，风险情绪仍将逐 日升温。" 此前， 见闻君曾分析指出 ，许多投资者将4月2日视为"恐慌巅峰日 " 。大摩、美银等机构也纷纷发出预警，认为全球投资者远未做好做空美国或全球股票 的准备，并预计华尔街的波动性可能至少持续到2025年下半年。 当前，有政策观察人士认为，4月2日是一个重要的时间节点——一旦跨过这一天，有了确定性，市场会平静下来。 4月2日后，市场真的可以高枕无忧了吗？ 关税的"不确定性"或成特朗普团队的谈判筹码 随着4月2日的"关税大限"即将来临，全球金融市场正在消化特朗普可能实施的大规模关税政策所带来的不确定性。 然而，据媒体报道援引经济学家和政策观察家分析， 这种不确定性很可能不是偶然，而是特朗普团队的刻意策略，旨在为未来谈判创造最 ...