Group 1 - DigitalOcean Holdings Inc. (NYSE:DOCN) is recognized as one of the best performing new tech stocks, with analysts raising price targets due to the success of its AI assistant, Clawdbot [1] - Bank of America increased its price target for DigitalOcean to $72 from $60, reflecting the company's strong position in the early stages of agentic AI adoption [1] - Barclays also raised its price target for DigitalOcean to $63 from $49, citing a favorable setup for software in 2026 amid stable macro and IT spending [2] Group 2 - Piper Sandler raised DigitalOcean's price target to $50 from $47, indicating a cautious outlook due to limited visibility and the need for the company to exceed growth projections [3] - DigitalOcean operates a cloud computing platform providing on-demand infrastructure and platform tools for developers across various regions, including North America, Europe, and Asia [4]

Core Insights - AppFolio reported a strong performance in Q4 and full-year 2025, with revenue of $248 million for the quarter and $951 million for the year, reflecting year-over-year increases of 22% and 20% respectively [3][4][6] - The company is positioned for continued growth in 2026, with guidance of $1.10 to $1.12 billion in revenue and a non-GAAP operating margin of 25.5% to 27.5% [6][17] Revenue Composition - Value-added services revenue reached $185 million in Q4, a 20% increase year over year, contributing to a full-year total of $722 million, up 19% [1] - Subscription services revenue was $56 million in Q4, up 17% year over year, with a full-year total of $211 million, also up 17% [2] Unit Growth and Customer Metrics - AppFolio managed approximately 9.4 million units across 22,096 customers at the end of Q4, marking an 8% increase in units and a 6% increase in customers year over year [7][8] - The company added over 500,000 units in the second half of 2025, with premium tier adoption exceeding 25% [5][8] AI Strategy and Product Expansion - The company is focusing on an "AI-native performance platform," integrating AI capabilities into workflows, with 98% of customers using at least one AI feature [5][10] - New product offerings include Realm-X "Performers" and Realm-X Flows, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [12] Customer Outcomes and Services - AppFolio's Resident Onboarding Lift service, co-created with Second Nature, aims to enhance the move-in experience and generate revenue opportunities [14] - Customer feedback indicates high satisfaction, with 96% of new customers reporting improved business performance after switching to AppFolio [14] Margins and Expenses - The non-GAAP operating margin for Q4 was 24.9%, up from 20.2% in the prior year, while the full-year margin was 24.7%, slightly down from 25.2% in 2024 [15] - Cost of revenue was 36% of revenue in Q4, a decrease from 37% year over year, with overall operating expenses as a percentage of revenue remaining stable at 38% for the full year [16]

Core Viewpoint - Richtech Robotics Inc. faced a significant decline in share price, dropping over 20% in intraday trading on January 29, 2026, following allegations of misrepresentation regarding its collaboration with Microsoft and missing its 10-K extended filing deadline [1][4]. Group 1: Allegations and Investigations - Hunterbrook Media published a report accusing Richtech Robotics of mischaracterizing its collaboration with Microsoft and failing to meet its 10-K filing deadline, which had already been extended by fifteen days in December 2025 [2][3]. - Gibbs Mura is investigating a potential securities class action lawsuit against Richtech Robotics, focusing on whether the company violated federal securities laws by providing false or misleading statements to investors [1][2]. Group 2: Details of the Collaboration and Filing Issues - On January 27, 2026, Richtech Robotics announced a "hands-on collaboration" with Microsoft through Microsoft's AI Co-Innovation Labs, aimed at developing agentic AI in robotic systems. However, Hunterbrook Media claims that Microsoft denied any partnership, stating that Richtech Robotics is merely a customer involved in a standard customer engagement without commercial elements [3]. - Richtech Robotics filed an NT 10-K notification of late filing in December 2025, which extended its 10-K filing deadline to January 13, 2026. The company ultimately filed the 10-K seven days after this extended deadline, on January 20, 2026. This delay raises questions about whether Richtech Robotics received a deficiency notice from NASDAQ and failed to disclose it publicly as required [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses Sabre Corporation's new whitepaper titled "The Secure AI Advantage: Governance and Trust in Travel Technology," which emphasizes the need for trust in the travel industry as it transitions to intelligent automation and agentic AI [1][2]. Group 1: Trust and Security in AI - The travel industry is at an inflection point where the systems that can transform travel also require a reimagined approach to security [2]. - Trust must be integrated into the data, identity, and verification processes of AI systems, as autonomy without trust is deemed unusable [3]. - Sabre advocates for a mindset shift in the industry, asserting that AI's full potential can only be unlocked if trust is designed, demonstrated, and durable [3][4]. Group 2: Sabre's Technological Strategy - Sabre's technology strategy is anchored in the philosophy that trust is a core tenet of infrastructure, not just a feature [4]. - The company has modernized its infrastructure through a collaboration with Google Cloud, enabling enterprise-grade AI with embedded security [5]. - The SabreMosaic platform and the Sabre IQ AI Layer provide customers with AI that includes guardrails, lineage, and accountability [5]. Group 3: Implementation and Future Directions - Moving over 50 petabytes of data to the cloud was a significant milestone for Sabre, laying the foundation for safe and autonomous AI systems [6]. - The whitepaper concludes with five tips for other companies to enhance security in the agentic era and invites the industry to participate in its global Agentic U roadshow [6]. - Sabre aims to lead with transparency and set a higher standard for responsible AI, helping partners embrace the future of travel confidently [7].

Group 1: AI Chatbot Market Dynamics - OpenAI's ChatGPT currently holds 68% of the AI chatbot market, a decrease from 87.2% a year ago, while Google's Gemini has rapidly increased its market share to 18.2% from 5.4% in January 2025 [2] - The competition in the generative AI chatbot space is intensifying, particularly with the success of Gemini [1] Group 2: Investment and Valuation Trends - SoftBank is in discussions to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI's latest funding round, which could elevate OpenAI's valuation to approximately $830 billion [2] - Anthropic has raised its revenue forecast for 2026 by 20% to $55 billion, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector [3] Group 3: Emergence of Agentic AI - 'Agentic AI' represents a new wave of AI technology capable of achieving complex goals with minimal human oversight, exemplified by the Clawdbot (now Moltbot) [5] - The rise of agentic AI is causing traditional software stocks to face selling pressure as investors anticipate disruption [5] Group 4: Corporate Investments and Stake Valuations - Zoom has seen its shares surge following its $53 million investment in Anthropic, with its stake now valued at least $2 billion [4] - Other major tech companies, including Amazon, also hold stakes in Anthropic, reflecting the growing interest in AI technologies [4]

Seagate Technology Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Seagate Technology (STX.O) - **Industry**: IT Hardware - **Market Cap**: $84,018 million - **Current Stock Price**: $371.76 (as of January 27, 2026) - **Price Target**: Increased from $372.00 to $468.00, with a bull case of $600.00 [2][3][9] Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: $2.83 billion for F2Q26, exceeding Morgan Stanley estimates by 1% and consensus by 3% [11] - **Gross Margin**: 42.2%, outperforming estimates by 100bps and 130bps [11] - **Operating Margin**: Expected to approach mid-thirties percentage in the upcoming quarter [11] - **EPS**: Increased to $3.40 +/- $0.20 for the March quarter, with FY27 EPS revised to $26.00 from $20.80 [9][10] Core Insights - **Demand Drivers**: Strong demand for HDDs driven by data center storage needs, particularly in video, agentic AI, and multi-modal applications [5][9] - **Pricing Power**: Strengthening pricing environment due to supply-demand imbalance, with expectations for further pricing tailwinds into CY27 [9][12] - **HAMR Technology**: The ramp-up of Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology is accelerating, with significant growth expected in shipments of the Mozaic 3 and Mozaic 4 platforms [10][15] - **Market Outlook**: The HDD cycle is expected to remain strong, with supply constraints leading to favorable pricing dynamics [9][12] Earnings Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Driven by Edge IoT revenue, which was 14% above estimates, while Data Center revenue was slightly below expectations [11] - **Non-GAAP Net Income**: Reported at $702 million, representing a net margin of 24.8%, beating estimates [11] - **Future Guidance**: Management guided for revenue of $2.90 billion +/- $100 million for the March quarter, indicating a 3% quarter-over-quarter growth at the midpoint [11] Investment Thesis - **Overweight Rating**: The stock is rated as Overweight due to strong demand growth, pricing power, and technological advancements [22] - **Long-term Growth**: The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing data growth and AI-driven storage demand, with expectations for multi-year earnings growth [22] - **Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected HDD demand growth and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [31] Additional Insights - **Capacity and Shipments**: Nearline HDD capacity is fully accounted for in CY26, with demand visibility extending into CY27 [12] - **Margin Expansion**: Gross margins are expected to expand to 50%+ levels, driven by pricing actions and a favorable product mix [21] - **CSP Qualifications**: All major US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) have qualified on Mozaic 3, with increasing qualifications for Mozaic 4 expected [15] This summary encapsulates the key points from Seagate Technology's earnings call, highlighting the company's strong performance, market dynamics, and future outlook.

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-29 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20260128：公积金改革可以撬动多少消费？ 核心观点：公积金改革可以释放多少消费潜力？公积金改革释放消费潜 能的主要途径在于降低居住成本，节省更多资金用于消费。通过三条具体 路径降低居住成本。一是租房提取扩容，通过降低门槛和放松限额，我们 预计长期可增加提取 3214 亿元；二是拓展使用范围，比如允许提取公积 金用于装修、物业费及水电燃料费，我们预计可盘活存量资金 1803 亿元； 三是进一步降低贷款利率，假设下调 0.5 个百分点，可节省利息支出约 134 亿元。三项合计可释放约 5151 亿元资金，按 70%的消费倾向计算， 理论上可拉动 3606 亿元消费，提升居民消费增速 0.7 个百分点。 风险提 示：（1）改革内容和推进节奏不及预期，目前公积金更多用于住房消费， 要拓展到其他居住领域，如物业费、装修等，大多还是地区性政策。（2） 如果其他因素出现变化，改革对消费的实质影响可能没有那么大。（3）房 地产市场出现新的变化。 宏观深度报告 20260128："雨 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue and adjusted gross profit (AGP) declined approximately 7% and 4% year-over-year, respectively [32][39] - The AGP decline was primarily driven by a 13% year-over-year decline in Global Forwarding's AGP due to a significant drop in ocean rates [32][39] - Personnel expenses in Q4 were $337 million, including $15.2 million of restructuring charges, while excluding these charges, personnel expenses were down 8.2% year-over-year [33][34] - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 18.1%, with a full-year tax rate of 18.7% expected to be in the range of 18%-20% for 2026 [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North American Surface Transportation (NAST), truckload volume rose approximately 3% year-over-year, while LTL volume increased approximately 0.5% year-over-year, reflecting market share gains [14][32] - Global Forwarding expanded gross margins by 100 basis points year-over-year through improved revenue management [7] - NAST AGP margin improved by 20 basis points year-over-year despite market pressures [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Cass Freight Shipment Index declined year-over-year for the thirteenth consecutive quarter, marking the lowest Q4 reading since the financial crisis of 2009 [4] - Spot market costs for truckload capacity spiked during the last five weeks of Q4 due to seasonal capacity decline and winter storms [4][17] - Dry van load-to-truck ratios increased to approximately 10 to 1, compared to 6 to 1 during the same period in 2024 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on controlling what it can, including providing differentiated service and solutions, executing with discipline, and continuously improving its business model [5][8] - The Lean AI strategy aims to enhance automation and improve customer outcomes while maintaining industry-leading operating margins [9][30] - The company is committed to building a scalable model that leverages AI to drive automation across its operations [9][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macro environment in Q4, including weak global freight demand and rising costs [4][32] - The company remains confident in its ability to execute strategic initiatives and improve operating leverage when freight demand eventually increases [9][22] - Management emphasized the importance of their lean operating model in navigating market challenges and driving sustainable growth [42][43] Other Important Information - The company generated $305.4 million in cash from operations in Q4 and ended the quarter with approximately $1.49 billion of liquidity [39][40] - The company returned approximately $207.7 million of cash to shareholders in Q4 through share repurchases and dividends [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide perspective on Q1 and AGP growth? - Management noted that December was challenging due to ocean rate normalization and that cost pressures carried into January, but they remain committed to demonstrating outperformance in Q1 [50][51] Question: What are the expectations for operating margins in NAST for 2027? - Management indicated they are on a good trajectory to reach mid-cycle margins of 40% for NAST, with decisions on margin expansion versus growth to be made based on market conditions [53][54] Question: How does the company balance headcount reductions with maintaining service quality? - Management stated that headcount is not a KPI and emphasized engineering the business to focus on customer service while optimizing organizational structure [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 subscription revenues reached $3.466 billion, growing 19.5% year-over-year in constant currency, exceeding guidance by 150 basis points [31] - Free cash flow margin for the full year 2025 was 35%, up 350 basis points year-over-year, and total free cash flow was $4.6 billion, up 34% year-over-year [38] - Operating margin was 31%, 100 basis points above guidance, driven by top-line outperformance and operational efficiencies [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net new ACV growth accelerated both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with 244 deals greater than $1 million in net new ACV closed in Q4 [33] - Emerging product areas, including Now Assist, Workflow Data Fabric, Raptor, and CPQ, all outperformed in Q4 [31] - Now Assist surpassed $600 million in ACV, tracking well towards a $1 billion-plus target for 2026 [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transportation and logistics led growth with net new ACV growing over 80% year-over-year, followed by business and consumer services at over 70% [32] - The public sector, including federal and state/local, showed significant growth, with global government business up 80% year-over-year [60][61] - The number of customers contributing $20 million or more in ACV rose over 30% year-over-year [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the AI-defining enterprise software company of the 21st century, focusing on integrating AI into workflows for business reinvention [14] - ServiceNow's strategy includes opportunistic M&A to expand into a larger total addressable market (TAM), now beyond $600 billion [12] - The company emphasizes organic growth, having achieved significant milestones without relying on M&A for revenue [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand environment, noting that customers are looking for platforms that deliver positive ROI and simplify operations [48][49] - The company anticipates 20% subscription revenue growth for 2026, with a strong pipeline and increasing customer demand for integrated AI solutions [10][39] - Management highlighted the importance of AI in driving efficiencies and improving operational resilience across customer deployments [36] Other Important Information - The company announced a $5 billion share repurchase authorization, with an immediate $2 billion accelerated share repurchase program [14][39] - Monthly active users grew 25%, indicating strong engagement with the platform [9] - The company is integrating new acquisitions, Armis and Veza, into its existing platform to enhance security and operational capabilities [74] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the tailwinds and headwinds in the demand environment? - Management noted that while there are legacy systems that burden companies, there is a strong demand for platforms that deliver cross-functional AI capabilities, leading to a robust pipeline [48][49] Question: How did the federal business perform in Q4? - Despite the government shutdown, the federal business saw significant deals and a strong pipeline, with public sector growth expected to continue into 2026 [60][61] Question: What is the outlook for gross margins? - Management indicated that while there are temporary headwinds due to strategic moves towards hyperscalers, overall margins are expected to improve as these deals scale [65]

ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 28, 2026 05:00 PM ET Speaker2Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q4 and full year 2025 ServiceNow earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withd ...