Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The downward momentum of Shanghai zinc has weakened, and the main contract closed at 22,140 yuan/ton with a decrease in positions. The net short position of the top 20 seats decreased. As the price rebounded, downstream purchasing sentiment worsened, and spot prices in three regions declined. The current low social inventory provides support for zinc prices, but with demand entering the off - season and supply increasing in June, the zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, maintaining a short - allocation view [7] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market - For SHFE zinc 2506, the opening price was 22,190 yuan/ton, closing at 22,430 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,485 yuan/ton, a low of 22,190 yuan/ton, a rise of 335 yuan/ton (1.52%), and a position of 2,510 contracts with a decrease of 870 contracts [7] - For SHFE zinc 2507, the opening price was 21,900 yuan/ton, closing at 22,140 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,205 yuan/ton, a low of 21,855 yuan/ton, a rise of 270 yuan/ton (1.23%), and a position of 125,779 contracts with a decrease of 9,292 contracts [7] - For SHFE zinc 2508, the opening price was 21,665 yuan/ton, closing at 21,905 yuan/ton, with a high of 21,965 yuan/ton, a low of 21,665 yuan/ton, a rise of 230 yuan/ton (1.06%), and a position of 90,246 contracts with a decrease of 750 contracts [7] Spot Market - On June 11, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,215 - 22,415 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 22,145 - 22,345 yuan/ton. Quotes in different regions had different premiums or discounts [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,225 - 22,375 yuan/ton, with a premium of 295 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract [8] - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,070 - 22,370 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was traded at 21,770 - 21,960 yuan/ton. The market was at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9] - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,160 - 22,380 yuan/ton, with a premium of 275 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the price was at par with the Shanghai spot [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of June 5, cup rubber is priced at 44.70 THB/kg (+0.15), while latex remains at 56.00 THB/kg (0) [1] - The purchasing price for Yunnan rubber water is 12,900 CNY/ton (0), and Hainan fresh latex is 13,700 CNY/ton (0) [1] - In the Shanghai market, full latex is priced at 13,500 CNY/ton (-100), and Thai standard in the Qingdao bonded area is at 1,690 USD/ton (-10) [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.05%, down 8.46 percentage points month-on-month and 16.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Full steel tire sample enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 55.65%, down 5.15 percentage points month-on-month and 5.94 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.84 days, down 0.38 days month-on-month and up 12.80 days year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for full steel tire sample enterprises is 41.87 days, down 0.09 days month-on-month and down 3.48 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export Data and Market Trends - In the first five months of 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 629,672 tons, a 7.9% increase from 583,437 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - In May alone, the export volume increased by 23.2% year-on-year but decreased by 9.6% month-on-month [2] - The increase in exports is driven by farmers shifting from cocoa to rubber due to stable income [2] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia's heavy rainfall continues to impact supply output, but expectations for increased supply are anticipated post-rain [2] - Tire companies are experiencing a decline in production due to maintenance schedules, leading to a decrease in inventory levels, although year-on-year inventory remains high [2] - Short-term macroeconomic recovery is expected to drive a rebound in rubber prices, but with supply increasing and demand weak, prices are likely to remain under pressure [2]