1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped slightly by 2 percentage points to 50% compared to the previous period. Most of the trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, while only a few indicator quantiles such as fund divergence, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, policy spread, and commodity price ratio increased to varying degrees. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - transaction thermometer reading dropped to 50% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 2 percentage points to 50%. Most trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, with the 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropping 12 and 3 percentage points respectively, the full - market turnover rate quantile dropping 12 percentage points, and the institutional leverage quantile dropping 6 percentage points. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The decline in the listed company wealth - management purchase volume and stock - bond price ratio quantiles was also significant, at 35 and 29 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund's ultra - long - term bond purchase volume [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) were in the neutral range, and 8 (40%) were in the cold range. The full - market turnover rate and listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rose from the cold to the neutral range. In terms of different types of indicators: - **Trading heat**: The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropped 12, 12, 6, and 3 percentage points respectively, and only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The average trading heat quantile dropped 1 percentage point [5]. - **Institutional behavior**: The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume and fund divergence quantiles rose 20 and 14 percentage points respectively, while the listed company wealth - management purchase volume quantile dropped 35 percentage points. The average institutional behavior quantile was basically flat compared to the previous period [5]. - **Spread**: The market spread rose 1 percentage point, and the policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points. The average spread quantile rose 3 percentage points [5]. - **Price ratio**: The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 29 percentage points, and the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points. The average price ratio quantile dropped 6 percentage points [5]. 3.2.1. The full - market turnover rate dropped to the cold range - In trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 17%. The full - market turnover rate quantile dropped 12 percentage points from the neutral to the cold range. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points to 67% and remained in the neutral range [6]. 3.2.2. The quantile of listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped significantly - In institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 38%, 25%, and 38% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantile rose 20 percentage points to 57% and moved from the cold to the neutral range [7]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points - The policy spread slightly dropped 1bp to 3bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread narrowed 1bp to 49bp, the agricultural development - state development spread remained at 0bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread also remained at 2bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 17bp, and its quantile slightly rose 1 percentage point to 62%, remaining in the neutral range [8]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly - All price - ratio - related indicators were in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped 29 percentage points to 0%, the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points, and the real - estate and consumer - goods price ratio quantiles remained the same as the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose 4 percentage points to 50%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35%. The trading heat index mean rose significantly, while the institutional behavior, spread, and price - ratio index means changed with different trends [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. This period, the micro - trading thermometer reading rebounded to 50% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" continued to rise 4 percentage points to 50%. The trading heat index mean rebounded 20 percentage points, with TL/T long - short ratio, market turnover rate, and institutional leverage percentile values rising 14, 47, and 53 percentage points respectively. Meanwhile, the percentile values of money tightness expectation, stock - bond ratio, and policy spread decreased 22, 17, and 13 percentage points respectively. High - congestion indicators include 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate, institutional leverage, fund duration, and fund ultra - long bond buying volume [3][15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 7 (35%), in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30%), and in the cold range decreased to 7 (35%). The market turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, and institutional leverage moved from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][20]. - **Trading heat**: The 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate remained at 100%. The 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, TL/T long - short ratio, market turnover rate, and institutional leverage percentile values rebounded 5, 14, 47, and 53 percentage points respectively, and the trading heat index mean rose 20 percentage points [5][20]. - **Institutional behavior**: The percentile values of fund duration, allocation strength, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rebounded slightly, while those of fund divergence and money tightness expectation decreased 4 and 22 percentage points respectively. The institutional behavior index mean decreased 1 percentage point [5][20]. - **Spread**: The market spread rebounded 4 percentage points, and the policy spread dropped 13 percentage points. The spread index mean decreased 4 percentage points [5][20]. - **Price - ratio**: The percentile values of stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate price - ratios decreased 17, 5, and 6 percentage points respectively, and the price - ratio index mean decreased 7 percentage points [5][20]. 3.2.1. The institutional leverage percentile value rebounded 53 percentage points - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 67%, neutral to 38%, and cold decreased to 25%. The market turnover rate percentile value rose 47 percentage points to 55% and moved to the neutral range, and institutional leverage rose 53 percentage points to 96% and moved to the over - heated range [6][21]. 3.2.2. The money tightness expectation percentile value decreased 22 percentage points - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 38%, neutral decreased to 38%, and cold decreased to 25%. The percentile values of fund divergence, money tightness expectation, and listed company wealth - management buying volume decreased 4, 22, and 4 percentage points respectively, while those of allocation strength and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rebounded 10 and 8 percentage points respectively [7][25]. 3.2.3. The policy spread percentile value dropped 13 percentage points - The 3 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, the policy spread widened from 1bp to 4bp, and the percentile value dropped 13 percentage points to 41%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread narrowed 4bp to 51bp, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread was flat at 0bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened 2bp. The average spread narrowed slightly from 18bp to 17bp, and its percentile value rose 4 percentage points to 60%, still in the neutral range [8][31]. 3.2.4. All price - ratio percentile values declined - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained 100%. The stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate price - ratio percentile values declined 17, 5, and 6 percentage points respectively [9][35].

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period has rebounded to 34%, a 5 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The turnover rates of 1Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased, while that of 10Y treasury bonds decreased. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio also increased by 13 percentage points. The percentile values of institutional leverage, allocation disk strength, market spread, and listed company wealth management purchase volume increased slightly. The percentile values of fund divergence, stock - bond ratio, and real estate ratio decreased by 14, 10, and 10 percentage points respectively. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio [14]. Group 2: Proportion of Indicators in Different Zones - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone remains at 15%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated zone remains 3 (15%), the number in the neutral zone increased to 4 (20%), and the number in the cold zone decreased to 13 (65%). The 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rate rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped from the over - heated zone to the cold zone [19]. Group 3: Transaction Heat Indicators - The average percentile value of transaction heat increased significantly. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio increased by 13 percentage points, driving the average percentile value of transaction heat up by 21 percentage points [4]. - In the transaction heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral zone remained at 17%, and the proportion in the cold zone dropped to 50%. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 21 and 86 percentage points respectively. The latter rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, while the former remained in the neutral zone [22]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average percentile value of institutional behavior decreased by 2 percentage points. The percentile values of fund divergence and fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume decreased by 14 and 10 percentage points respectively [4]. - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral zone rose to 25%, and the proportion in the cold zone remained at 63%. The percentile value of the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped by 10 percentage points to 61% and moved from the over - heated zone to the neutral zone [26]. Group 5: Spread Indicators - The average percentile value of spreads increased slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread increased by 8 percentage points, and the policy spread decreased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 13bp, and its percentile value decreased by 5 percentage points to 10%, remaining in the cold zone. The credit spread narrowed by 4bp to 50bp, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread widened slightly by 1bp to -1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread remained basically flat at 2bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed slightly from 18bp to 17bp, and its percentile value increased by 8 percentage points to 63%, remaining in the neutral zone [7]. Group 6: Ratio Indicators - The average percentile value of ratios decreased by 5 percentage points. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values both decreased by 10 percentage points [4]. - All ratio - related indicators are in the cold zone. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values decreased by 10 percentage points, the commodity ratio percentile value increased slightly by 1 percentage point, and the consumer goods ratio percentile value remained at 0% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 31% compared to the previous period, and the indicator quantile value further declined in the cold range. Most indicator quantile values decreased, with only a few showing a slight increase [14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 31% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 31%, and the indicator quantile value further declined in the cold range. Only the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the whole - market turnover rate, the allocation disk strength, and the commodity price ratio quantile value increased slightly, while the rest decreased. For example, the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped 23 percentage points, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped 37 percentage points [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the hot range dropped significantly to 5% - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 1 (5% of the total), the number in the neutral range increased to 8 (40% of the total), and the number in the cold range increased to 11 (55% of the total). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and the money tightness expectation all dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range [19]. - The average quantile of various indicators declined. In trading heat, the trading heat average quantile dropped 8 percentage points; in institutional behavior, the institutional behavior average quantile dropped 7 percentage points; in spreads, the spread average quantile dropped 6 percentage points; in price ratios, the price ratio average quantile remained the same as the previous period [19]. 3.2.1. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped to the neutral range - Among the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 17%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 33%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped 23 percentage points and moved from the over - heated range to the neutral range, while the TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate increased 17 and 15 percentage points respectively [21]. 3.2.2. The allocation disk strength increased slightly due to insurance buying - Among the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying and the money tightness expectation dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range [23]. 3.2.3. The market and policy spread quantile values both declined - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 14bp, and its quantile value dropped 6 percentage points to 6%, remaining in the cold range. The credit spread, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 4bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively, and the average spread widened from 18bp to 21bp, with its quantile value dropping 7 percentage points to 48%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value continued to decline slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value dropped 2 percentage points, the commodity price ratio quantile value increased 2 percentage points, and the real - estate price ratio quantile value changed little [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market this period has increased by 2 percentage points to 43%. Except for trading heat, the average quantile of other indicators has risen. The decline in the average quantile of trading heat is mainly due to the different degrees of decline in the quantile values of relative turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio. The indicators with a relatively large increase in value include fund divergence, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, real estate price ratio, and policy spread [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 10%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, 2 are in the over - heated range (10%), 11 are in the neutral range (55%), and 7 are in the cold range (35%). Some indicators have changed their ranges [3][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has increased by 2 percentage points to 43% compared with the previous period. Except for trading heat, the average quantile of other indicators has risen. The decline in the average quantile of trading heat is due to the decline in the quantile values of relative turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio, while indicators such as fund divergence, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, real estate price ratio, and policy spread have increased significantly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 2 are in the over - heated range (10%), 11 are in the neutral range (55%), and 7 are in the cold range (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, the allocation disk strength has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, the policy spread and stock - bond price ratio have risen from the cold range to the neutral range, and the institutional leverage has risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range [3][19]. 3.3. Changes in Different Indicator Categories 3.3.1. Trading Heat Indicators - The average quantile of trading heat indicators has decreased by 7 percentage points. The quantile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y relative turnover rates have decreased by 43 and 10 percentage points respectively, and the quantile value of TL/T long - short ratio has decreased by 6 percentage points. The quantile values of the whole - market turnover rate and institutional leverage have increased by 7 and 11 percentage points respectively. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 17%, the proportion in the neutral range has dropped to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range has risen to 33%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the institutional leverage has risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range [4][5]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average quantile of institutional behavior indicators has increased by 6 percentage points. Only the quantile values of fund duration and allocation disk strength have decreased by 8 and 4 percentage points respectively, while the quantile values of other indicators have increased to varying degrees. The quantile values of listed company's wealth management purchase volume and fund divergence have increased by 21 and 18 percentage points respectively. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range has risen to 63%, and the proportion in the cold range remains at 25%. The allocation disk strength has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [4][6]. 3.3.3. Spread Indicators - The average quantile of spread indicators has increased by 7 percentage points. The market spread and policy spread quantile values have increased by 2 and 12 percentage points respectively. The policy spread has continued to narrow by 4bp to 4bp, and its quantile value has increased by 12 percentage points to 42%, rising from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread has slightly widened by 1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 3bp. The average spread of the three remains basically at 17bp, and its quantile value has increased by 2 percentage points to 44%, remaining in the neutral range [4][7]. 3.3.4. Price Ratio Indicators - The average quantile of price ratio indicators has increased by 7 percentage points. The proportion of indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range has risen to 25%. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value has continued to increase by 7 percentage points to 40%, and the commodity price ratio and real estate price ratio quantile values have increased by 4 and 16 percentage points respectively, still remaining in the cold range [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 1 percentage point to 43%. The proportion of indicators in the overheated range among 20 micro - indicators rose to 20%, those in the neutral range decreased to 30%, and those in the cold range remained at 50%. Different types of indicators showed various changes in their values and ranges [2][3][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period, the reading of the micro - transaction thermometer dropped 1 percentage point to 43% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" decreased by 1 percentage point to 43%. Indicators with larger declines include TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, market and policy spreads, and commodity price ratio. Indicators with larger increases are 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates, with their percentile values rising by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and fund ultra - long bond buying volume [2][14]. 3.2. This period, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 4 are in the over - heated range (20%), 6 in the neutral range (30%), and 10 in the cold range (50%). The ranges of some indicators have changed: stock - bond price ratio and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range; TL/T long - short ratio dropped from the over - heated to the neutral range; 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates rose from the cold and neutral ranges to the over - heated range respectively; allocation disk strength rose from the cold to the neutral range [3][19]. - Transaction heat percentile value increased by 17 percentage points. Except for the TL/T long - short ratio, whose percentile value dropped by 33 percentage points, other transaction heat indicators' percentile values all increased. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates' percentile values increased significantly by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively. The average percentile value of transaction heat increased by 17 percentage points. Among institutional behavior indicators, except for the allocation disk strength whose percentile value increased by 16 percentage points, other indicators' percentile values dropped. The fund duration and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile values decreased by 25 and 51 percentage points respectively, driving the average percentile value of institutional behavior down by 10 percentage points. Market and policy spread percentile values both increased, driving the average spread percentile value down by 12 percentage points. Stock - bond, commodity, and real estate price ratio percentile values all dropped, while the consumer goods price ratio percentile value increased slightly by 9 percentage points, and the average percentile value of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19]. 3.2.1. Relative turnover rate percentile value increased significantly - In transaction heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 33%, in the neutral range remained at 17%, and in the cold range dropped to 50%. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates' percentile values increased by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively, with the former rising from the cold to the over - heated range and the latter from the neutral to the over - heated range. The TL/T long - short ratio percentile value dropped 33 percentage points to 51%, falling from the over - heated to the neutral range [5][21]. 3.2.2. Allocation disk strength continued to rise - Among institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 25%, 50%, and 25% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile value dropped 51 percentage points to 6%, falling from the neutral to the cold range, while the allocation disk strength percentile value increased 16 percentage points, rising from the cold to the neutral range [6][22]. 3.2.3. Policy spread continued to widen under the bond market correction - The bond market corrected comprehensively. The spread between the 3 - year Treasury bond and OMO increased from 6bp to 11bp, and its percentile value dropped 14 percentage points to 22%, still in the cold range. Credit spread, Agricultural Development - China Development spread continued to compress by 6bp and 1bp to 46bp and 10bp respectively, while the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 13bp to - 5bp. The average spread of the three widened by 2bp to 17bp, and its percentile value dropped 10 percentage points to 41%, in the neutral range [7][29]. 3.2.4. Consumer goods price ratio percentile value increased by 9 percentage points - All price - ratio indicators are in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio percentile value dropped 8 percentage points to 36%, falling from the neutral to the cold range. The commodity price ratio percentile value dropped significantly by 19 percentage points to 8%, still in the cold range [8][31].