Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in China regarding the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products aim to address the "involution" competition in the new energy sector, promoting healthier industry development and supporting the global green transition [1][3]. Export Tax Rebate Changes - Starting April 1, 2026, China will fully cancel the 9% export tax rebate for 249 photovoltaic-related products, marking the first complete cancellation since 2013 [2]. - The export tax rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will be completely eliminated [2]. - The adjustments are intended to combat the adverse effects of low-price competition and to ensure that the export tax rebate does not inadvertently subsidize foreign buyers [4][10]. Industry Competition and Regulation - The photovoltaic industry has been experiencing severe "involution" competition, leading to declining export prices and profit losses for domestic companies [4]. - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association has indicated that the current practices have transformed the export tax rebate into a subsidy for foreign markets, increasing the risk of international trade disputes [4]. - Recent measures include strengthening antitrust regulations and promoting self-discipline within the industry to mitigate irrational competition [5][8]. Industry Self-Regulation Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been actively promoting self-regulation in the battery sector, including organizing meetings to discuss industry competition and development [6][7]. - Regulatory bodies are focusing on enhancing market supervision, optimizing capacity management, and ensuring product quality to foster a healthier competitive environment [7][8]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to lead to a rationalization of export prices and a reduction in trade friction, ultimately benefiting the industry's long-term health [10][12]. - The focus is shifting towards technological innovation and quality improvement, with an emphasis on developing high-value products such as high-efficiency photovoltaic cells and long-duration energy storage batteries [12].

Core Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver hold a critical position in the global economic landscape, combining commodity, financial, and monetary attributes. The Chinese government aims to enhance the quality of the gold industry through a three-year development plan from 2025 to 2027, addressing issues such as resource security and technological capabilities [3][6]. Group 1: 2025 Precious Metals Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of gold globally, with a production of 377.24 tons and consumption of 985.31 tons in 2024, maintaining its leading position for 18 and 12 consecutive years, respectively [6][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have outlined nine core areas for high-quality development in the gold industry, focusing on enhancing resource security and technological innovation [6][9]. - By 2027, the gold resource security capacity is expected to increase by 5%-10%, with gold and silver production projected to grow by over 5% [6]. Group 2: 2025 Taxation Environment and Compliance - The report emphasizes tax compliance as a core focus, providing insights into the tax policy environment and regulatory trends affecting the precious metals industry [4]. - The introduction of a new tax management model for gold aims to establish compliance standards and enhance regulatory oversight, particularly in export tax refunds [3][4]. Group 3: Tax Risk Observations in 2025 - Some companies have exploited the high value and liquidity of gold to engage in fraudulent activities, such as fictitious invoicing and manipulating material ratios to qualify for export tax refunds [10][11]. - Notable cases include a company that fraudulently claimed export tax refunds amounting to 17.28 million yuan by misrepresenting the gold content in products [15][19]. Group 4: 2026 Tax Environment Analysis - The implementation of the new VAT law in 2026 will further tighten export tax refund management, standardizing penalties for late submissions and clarifying responsibilities for entrusted exports [30][31]. - The tax authorities are set to enhance oversight through digitalization and data analysis, aiming to improve compliance and reduce tax evasion [35][36]. Group 5: New Gold Tax Policy and Compliance Risks - The new gold tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, introduces a classification management model based on the purpose of gold usage, differentiating between investment and non-investment purposes [40][41]. - Companies must now report any changes in the intended use of gold to the exchange, which will help mitigate risks associated with tax fraud and invoice manipulation [51][52]. Group 6: Export Tax Refund Risks for Precious Metal Products - The evolution of export tax refund policies for precious metals has shifted from lower refund rates to stricter controls, with significant implications for compliance and tax planning [55][56]. - The tightening of regulations aims to prevent tax fraud related to precious metals, with a focus on ensuring that companies adhere to the legal requirements for export refunds [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - **Tin**: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - **Silver**: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - **Gold**: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - **Benzene Styrene**: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - **Apples**: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - **Jujubes**: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - **Eggs**: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - **Oils**: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]

Group 1 - The introduction of a 25-year corporate income tax starting in 2026 raises concerns about inflated tax liabilities for companies like Amazon due to unrecognized expenses such as commissions, delivery fees, advertising fees, and VAT [1] - The tax authority's regulations, specifically the State Administration of Taxation Announcement No. 28 of 2018 and the response from the National Tax Service, confirm the recognition of certain expenses for tax deductions [1] - There are practical challenges associated with using the 9810 model for cross-border e-commerce, particularly regarding the deductibility of commissions and advertising expenses, which are limited under current tax laws [1] Group 2 - Companies can consider alternative strategies to simplify tax reconciliation with the tax bureau, such as export tax rebates, ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) filings, consolidated financial statements, and establishing local Hong Kong stores without the primary aim of tax avoidance [2] - The current Q4 tax reporting season has led to misinformation regarding the necessity of reporting data for companies without substantial operations, particularly concerning customs declarations [6] - The treatment of value-added tax (VAT) as non-taxable income for companies without substantial operations is highlighted, emphasizing that only companies with actual operations are required to report and pay taxes accurately [7]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 2026-01-21，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于160600元/吨，收于166740元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化 7.26%。当日成交量为376418手，持仓量为427928手，前一交易日持仓量415351手，根据SMM现货报 价，目前基差为-5880元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单28656手，较上个交易日变化975手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价155000-162000元/吨，较前一交易日变化6000元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价152000-158000元/吨，较前一交易日变化6000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2120美元/吨，较 前一日变化60美元/吨。近日碳酸锂利好消息不断，对价格反弹起到推动作用。供应端江西锂云母问题 仍在持续操作；需求端受 4 月出口退税率下调影响，下游抢出口与补库共振，磷酸铁锂厂家取消春节检 修满负荷生产，贸易商捂货加剧现货流通偏紧；同时社会库存虽微增但可流通现货少、期现联动走强， 昨日涨停后多头信心提振、资金情绪助推，再叠加加拿大给予中国电动车进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors including changes in export tax policies, demand weakness, and production capacity dynamics, leading to a complex outlook for 2026. Group 1: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the Chinese manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index rose to expansion territory, boosting macroeconomic sentiment and leading to a rebound in PVC futures prices to 5000 yuan/ton [1] - In 2025, the actual PVC production capacity increased by 2.08 million tons to a historical high of 29.62 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.55% [2] - The global PVC capacity expansion is slowing down, with only a few new projects expected in 2026, which may alleviate the pressure of overcapacity [2] Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The real estate sector remains in a slow recovery phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment and construction metrics, leading to weak demand for PVC [3] - As of mid-January, PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week-on-week to 1.1441 million tons, indicating high inventory levels and significant destocking pressure [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2025, PVC exports reached 3.8232 million tons, a 46.09% year-on-year increase, with India being the largest export destination [4] - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for PVC, effective April 1, 2026, will increase export costs by approximately 520 yuan/ton, potentially reducing price competitiveness in Asian markets [4] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The overall profitability of PVC and caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, with recent declines in caustic soda prices and increasing cost support for PVC [5] - The market fundamentals are weak, with seasonal demand decreasing before the Spring Festival and social inventory continuing to rise [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The container shipping index (European route) is currently in a temporary consolidation phase, influenced by factors such as the accelerating decline of spot prices and the uncertainty in geopolitical situations. The market is affected by different factors in terms of supply (capacity), demand, and geopolitical risks, leading to different outlooks for various contracts. [1][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European route) showed weak consolidation. The main contract 2604 closed at 1112.6 points, with a 77 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 1.44%. The secondary main contract 2606 closed at 1317.4 points, with a 273 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 0.33%. [1][9] 3.2 Capacity Analysis - The shipping schedules on the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Overall, the capacity from 1/26 - 3/1 remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending sailing. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. [10] - The Spring Festival suspension of shipping was mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 TEU, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively. The capacity pressure after the festival was relatively higher. [10] 3.3 Geopolitical Situation - The instability in Iran has increased, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the East Coast of the United States and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans. After the market closed yesterday, CMA CGM decided to divert east - bound vessels on the FAL1, FAL3, and MEX routes around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal. [11] 3.4 Demand Side - On January 8, 2026, China adjusted the export VAT rebate policy. The export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled from April 1, 2026, and the export rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027. This may lead to 2 - 5 TEU of transportation demand for European routes and 4 - 7 TEU for European - Mediterranean routes being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush for shipping is expected to occur from late February to March. However, it is unlikely to change the oversupply situation in March. [12] 3.5 Spot Freight Rates - The FAK average in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. The Maersk's European base container prices in the 5th and 6th weeks decreased by about $700/FEU in total. Different alliances and shipping companies also had varying degrees of price adjustments. [13] 3.6 Contract Analysis - For the 2602 contract, the valuation may be around 1700 points, and it is expected to have narrow - range position - reducing fluctuations in the future. - For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal positive impact from the rush of photovoltaic and battery product shipments in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April. It is recommended to consider rolling short positions in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points. - For the 2606 contract, the short - term influencing factor is the resumption rhythm. If it fails to resume in June, it may be a relatively good long - position contract. It may have a small premium in the short - term and remain in a consolidation phase in the medium - term. It should be treated with a wide - range consolidation strategy. - For the 2610 contract, the upper pressure level refers to the settlement price of 1161 points for the 2510 contract. Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the peace negotiations in Gaza and the geopolitical situation in Iran. [14][15] 3.7 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral position. [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's technological advancement and competitive advantages rely on continuous R&D investment and the hard work of entrepreneurs, rather than on fiscal subsidies [1] - Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has adhered to WTO rules and has submitted eight central-level and six local-level subsidy policy reports, reflecting the country's actual situation [1] - The Chinese government is committed to regulating fiscal subsidies and will conduct a special rectification of local fiscal subsidies by 2025, addressing any violations and promoting orderly competition [1] Group 2 - In September 2025, China will implement a domestic product policy for government procurement, effective January 1, 2026, which emphasizes equal treatment of all suppliers without discrimination based on ownership or other unreasonable conditions [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for solar products starting April 1, 2026, and a phased cancellation for battery products, aimed at promoting efficient resource use and reducing environmental pollution [2] - This policy adjustment is intended to guide reasonable industrial structure adjustments, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and support high-quality economic development [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].

庄英宏说，在光伏组件价格非常低的情况下，很多原先不具备投建光伏项目的地区也开始出现需求。 1月8日，财政部、国家税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》（下称"公告"），宣布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退 税，自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。公告还附录 了光伏等产品249项、电池产品22项。 出口退税是指在国际贸易中，对已经报关离境的产品，由税务机关将它在出口前再生产和流通环节中已征收的增值税和消费税返还给出口企业的一种制度。 出口越多，企业拿到的出口退税越多。 政策调整后，市场开始推演政策调整带来的影响。博达新能品牌与市场管理中心负责人庄英宏预测，2026年，部分光伏海外光伏市场会"直接消失"，因为希 腊等国家的光伏项目内部收益率只有不到6%，出口退税全面取消大概会影响2.25%的内部收益率。 博达新能长期向海外销售光伏组件，销售业务主要分布在美国地区，生产基地在越南、柬埔寨、埃及等海外地区。 根据Infolink调研，受到出口退税以及银价成本上升原因，组件厂家在报 ...