Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry, specifically the thermal coal market, is experiencing a downward trend since 2025, with prices nearing 2014 lows due to oversupply [1][3] - The market is characterized by a significant increase in coal production, particularly in Shanxi and Xinjiang, but recent environmental inspections and weak demand may lead to a decrease in production [1][5] Key Points Price Trends - As of May 2025, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal has dropped over 150 RMB since the beginning of the year, reflecting a significant decline in market prices [1][3] - The average price for thermal coal is expected to decrease to 650-660 RMB/ton for the year, with potential fluctuations in the second half of the year [4][14] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to April 2025, the cumulative oversupply of thermal coal reached 30.46 million tons, with inventory levels remaining historically high despite some reductions at northern ports [10][11] - Domestic thermal coal supply has increased by over 10 million tons year-on-year, while demand from the thermal power sector has been pressured by the rise of renewable energy sources [9][10] Production Insights - Shanxi aims for a production target of 1.013 billion tons, while Xinjiang's target is 600 million tons, but both face challenges related to market conditions and transportation limitations [6][15] - Environmental inspections have led to some production reductions, but no large-scale shutdowns have occurred [7][25] Import and Export Factors - Import volumes of thermal coal are expected to decrease by 30-50 million tons in 2025, primarily due to reduced imports from Indonesia and Australia [8][19] - The overall supply remains ample, with domestic production compensating for the decline in imports [9][10] Market Predictions - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential improvements in supply-demand balance due to seasonal factors and production adjustments [4][12] - The market may see a slight price increase in the third quarter, but high inventory levels and continued supply could lead to further price declines [13][14] Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has engaged with index institutions to stabilize market pricing, which has contributed to a period of relative price stability [21][22] - Government policies are expected to prevent drastic price declines, with a focus on maintaining production levels despite market pressures [25] Additional Insights - The recent increase in low-calorie coal prices is attributed to high supply and low demand for high-calorie coal, leading to a shift in market dynamics [16][17] - The coal market is currently facing a challenging environment, with potential price drops below 600 RMB likely if demand does not improve and production levels remain high [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The core view is that the power coal price is expected to move sideways. Although positive factors are accumulating as the peak season approaches, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand remains loose, and there is a high possibility of the coal price not rising during the peak season this summer [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price and Market Analysis of Power Coal Spot** - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view is sideways. The core logic is that as the peak season approaches, positive factors for power coal are accumulating, but the overall medium - to - long - term supply - demand remains loose. The domestic coal price is at a low level internationally, leading to a decline in imports. With the arrival of June, the peak summer period is coming, and terminal power plants have some restocking demand, which slightly supports the market sentiment. However, the port inventory is at a five - year high, increasing the possibility of the coal price not rising during the peak season [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal is to oscillate. As the peak season approaches, positive factors for thermal coal are accumulating, but the market is in a stalemate and prices are temporarily stable. The long - term supply - demand pattern of thermal coal remains loose, and there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: With the approaching of the peak season, positive factors for thermal coal are accumulating. On one hand, domestic coal prices are at a low level internationally, leading to a significant decline in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal compared to 2024, resulting in a decrease in imports. On the other hand, as June arrives, China will enter the critical period of peak - summer power consumption, and terminal power plants still have a certain demand for inventory replenishment during the peak season, which slightly supports market sentiment. However, the overall long - term supply - demand pattern of thermal coal remains loose, and current port inventories are at a five - year high, so there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". As the peak season approaches, bullish factors for thermal coal are accumulating, and the market is in a stalemate with prices remaining stable for now. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - **Driving factors for price stability**: Domestic coal prices are at a low level internationally, leading to a significant decline in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal compared to 2024 and a decrease in import volume. In June, China enters the critical period for peak - summer power consumption, and terminal power plants still have some inventory replenishment needs for the peak season, which provides some support to market sentiment [5]. - **Factors restricting price increase**: The overall pattern of medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and the current port inventory is at a five - year high for the same period, increasing the likelihood that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格阶段性止跌企稳，截至 5 月 22 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 613 元 /吨，周环比下跌 9 元/吨。目前，动力煤供应和库存压力依然存在，不过 4 月产量和进口量环比 均有所回落，显示供应端压力暂未进一步增强。相对而言，5 月期间港口库存的快速回升，对煤 价形成较大压制，高库存现状使得今夏旺季不旺的预期持续发酵，拖累价格下行。根据 iFind 统 计，截至 5 月 22 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 3210.5 万吨，较去年同期大幅偏高 645.8 万吨，且 月内库存一度累至 3300 万吨的历史高位。整体来看，当前煤炭市场的利多驱动有三。一是 5 月 政策端频频传来暖风，一定程度上缓和了非电行业的悲观氛围；二是外煤性价比走低，导致进口 量下滑；三是电煤旺季即将到来。不过，当前动力煤仍 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点： 中期观点： 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格阶段性止跌企稳，截至 5 月 22 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 613 元 /吨，周环比下跌 9 元/吨。目前，动力煤供应和库存压力依然存在，不过 4 月产量和进口量环比 均有所回落，显示供应端压力暂未进一步增强。相对而言，5 月期间港口库存的快速回升，对煤 价形成较大压制，高库存现状使得今夏旺季不旺的预期持续发酵，拖累价格下行。根据 iFind 统 计，截至 5 月 22 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 321 ...

动力煤市场供应充足，但电力需求疲软，新能源装机加速，拉尼娜现象 转换导致夏季气温或不及预期，多重因素叠加使得短期内动力煤价格难 有乐观表现，即使企稳也仅是阶段性因素导致，反弹力度有限。 电厂库存偏高，或延续旺季不旺的走势。即使七八月份库存去化，9 月 份可能出现小幅涨价，但难以突破 700 元。整体对全年煤价行情保持谨 慎，预计在较弱状态中震荡。 长协执行条件松动，现货紧缺缓解，煤价定价更市场化。在整体基本面 偏宽松的情况下，非电行业工业需求对煤价的反弹支撑减弱，对工业端 需求带来的季节性涨价持保守态度。 若动力煤价格反弹，幅度可能仅几十元，难以超过 700 元。大反弹需进 口减量、宏观利好、水电下降和极端天气同时出现。贸易商对后市谨慎 悲观，电厂补库积极性不高。 火电表现弱于预期，可能导致达峰时间提前。预计今年是煤价最低的一 年，未来价格或回升。难以复刻 2021-2022 年的周期上行，但全球对 能源安全担忧或支撑煤价。 对话期货专家：如何展望动力煤价格底部及后市走势？ 20250521 摘要 Q&A 动力煤价格近期下跌的原因是什么？短期内动力煤价格底部预计会是多少，什 么时候可能出现？ 今年动力煤价格持 ...

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|动力煤周报 2025-04-27 日耗持续下行，动煤承压偏弱 产地方面，目前冶金化工需求有一定韧性，长协煤发运采购需求稳定，但近期终端有 电厂检修，部分煤矿库存积压，价格弱势下调。短期煤炭价格需求支撑不足，随着天 气逐渐转暖，价格明显缺乏支撑。后期关注非电煤需求的持续性和库存情况。 核心观点 ◼ 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至 4 月 25 日，榆林 5800 大卡指数 521.0 元/吨，周环 比下跌 12.0 元/吨；鄂尔多斯 5500 大卡指数 465.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 9.0 元/吨；大同 5500 大卡指数 532.0 元/吨；周环比下跌 6.0 元/吨。港 ...