Report Title - The report is titled "Thermal Coal: Supply and Demand Tend to Weaken, Coal Prices Rise Slightly" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand of thermal coal tend to weaken, and coal prices rise slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and subsequent market supply - demand changes need to be closely monitored [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - **产地价格**：大同南郊动力煤Q5500为568元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降56元/吨；鄂尔多斯伊金霍勒旗电煤Q5500为531元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降39元/吨；榆林烟煤末Q6000为595元/吨，环比涨3元/吨，同比降58元/吨 [2] - **港口价格**：秦港山西产Q5500为607元/吨，环比涨5元/吨，同比降63元/吨；秦港山西产Q5000为525元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降56元/吨；秦港山西产Q4500为750元/吨，环比涨1元/吨，同比降60元/吨 [2] - **海外价格**：印尼FOB Q3800为49.5美元/吨，环比持平，同比降0.5美元/吨；澳大利亚FOB Q5500为74.6美元/吨，环比持平，同比降4.4美元/吨 [2] - **1月长协价格**：港口Q5500为684元/吨，环比降10元/吨，同比降9元/吨；山西Q5500为540元/吨，环比降8元/吨；陕西Q5500为483元/吨，环比降13元/吨；蒙西Q5500为453元/吨，环比降7元/吨 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **期货研究** - 1月28日港口市场价格坚挺，上游报价小幅探涨，下游询盘少、接受度不高，成交价格重心提升慢。煤矿价格上涨、港口发运倒挂、电厂日耗高位支撑上游挺价，但下游需求未明显改善，预计价格上涨空间有限。产地动力煤市场稳中偏强，部分煤矿停产致供应收紧，终端及站台刚需补库，大集团和港口价格上扬带动贸易商拉运情绪，推动价格上行 [3] - 2025年12月全国原煤产量环比增2.40%，同比降1.0%，是2025年7月以来连续第六个月同比下降，但环比连续第二个月增长。12月日均产量1410万吨，较11月减13万吨，较去年同期减5.6万吨。2025年全年累计原煤产量483178万吨，同比增1.2% [3] - 2025年12月全国进口煤炭5859.7万吨，同比增11.94%，环比增33.01%。进口煤超预期是因印尼出口关税政策调整致海外供应商“抢出口”，以及年末国内供应收紧、内贸煤价格下跌使海外煤有进口优势 [3][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is 1 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal industry has a long - term expectation of a loose supply of thermal coal without capacity control policies. Even during the peak winter season, downstream users are cautious in purchasing. Considering the support during the peak season and the anti - involution policy, the thermal coal price is expected to remain in a narrow range in February [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In the week of January 16th, the capacity utilization rate of 462 thermal coal mines nationwide was 90.6%, with a daily average raw coal output of 5.467 million tons, returning to the level of mid - December. After entering the new year, some coal mines that had stopped production due to achieving annual targets resumed production, and the coal mines in the production areas were operating stably as the Spring Festival holiday had not yet arrived [4] - In the first two weeks of January, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 13.252 million tons, with a daily average arrival volume of 1.104 million tons. This was a month - on - month decrease compared to the daily average arrival volume of 1.317 million tons in December but a 13.8% year - on - year increase [4] Demand Side - In late January, affected by the cold wave, the temperature in coastal cities dropped sharply, and the daily coal consumption of power plants increased [4]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests an overall "oscillating" stance for the medium - term view of the thermal coal spot market. The price increase of domestic thermal coal has narrowed this week and stabilized again. Due to warmer temperatures in coastal cities in mid - January, the demand for residential heating has declined. Although the temperature will drop significantly in late January, as of now, coal stocks at ports and downstream power plants are sufficient, resulting in a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Inventory Data - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [4]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim region was 2705.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, with the maximum temperature in some areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang returning above 20°C, leading to a decline in residential heating demand [4]. - As of now, coal stocks at ports and downstream power plants are sufficient, and the coal market atmosphere is weak, with prices remaining low [4]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, and non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable. However, due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the thermal coal market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with overall supply stability, slow logistics, ongoing inventory reduction in intermediate links, and weak demand suppressing prices [1] - The price trend for thermal coal shows a clear divergence, with long-term contract prices declining month-on-month while spot prices have slightly increased but with narrowing gains [2][3] - The long-term contract price for 5500 kcal thermal coal is reported at 684 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton from the previous month, with various floating price indicators also showing declines [2][3] Group 2 - Domestic coal supply remains stable, with major production areas continuing to resume operations, leading to a steady increase in output, while imports have become a significant supplement to supply [6][7] - In December 2025, coal imports reached 58.597 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, marking a significant recovery and contributing to market supply during the peak winter demand season [7] - The logistics segment is under pressure, with port operation efficiency limited by adverse weather conditions, resulting in a decrease in coal outflow [10] Group 3 - Weak demand is identified as the primary factor suppressing coal prices, with reduced operating rates in downstream industries and lower demand for residential heating due to warmer temperatures [11] - The outlook for the market suggests that upcoming cold weather and increased heating demand may provide temporary support for thermal coal prices [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price rally has narrowed and stabilized again. The price of thermal coal will maintain a low - level operation due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Inventory Data** - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a slight weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton [5]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports around the Bohai Sea was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5]. - **Market Driving Factors** - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, the demand for residential heating declined, and although the temperature will drop significantly again by late January, the coal inventory at ports and downstream power plants is sufficient as of now, leading to a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [5]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price rally narrowed and stabilized this week. The price is expected to remain low due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation" [5]. - **Core Logic**: As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton. In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, reducing residents' heating demand. Although the temperature will drop significantly in late January, port and downstream power plant coal stocks are sufficient as of now. The coal market atmosphere is weak, and prices remain low. This week, main - producing area coal mines maintained normal production. Non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, some coal mines faced increased shipping pressure, and the mine - end atmosphere began to weaken. As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillating". The short - term and medium - term core logic is that downstream demand provides support, leading to a slight increase in port coal prices. The intraday view's core logic is that the domestic thermal coal fundamentals may recover in January, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price and Market Conditions - As of December 31, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, continuing to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton and gradually stabilizing this week [4]. Driving Factors for Price Changes - Before the New Year's Day holiday, thermal coal prices were weakening. The decline was due to high supply and unexpectedly weak demand. With the arrival of the New Year, although some suspended coal mines on the supply side will resume production, coal mines will have concentrated holidays during the Spring Festival, and downstream replenishment demand will be realized. On the demand side, the heating demand of residents in southern coastal cities will further increase in January, driving the coal consumption of power plants to reach the peak of the year [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by the unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. The subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday Viewpoint**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: In December, the domestic thermal coal price continued to weaken, and the decline exceeded expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by the unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. The subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]

Group 1 - The coal market in Q4 2025 is expected to experience a tightening supply-demand balance initially, followed by a shift towards a more relaxed state, with domestic thermal coal prices showing a trend of rising first and then experiencing downward pressure [1][4] - In Q4 2025, the price of thermal coal reached its highest point of the year, with the peak price for Q6000 thermal coal in the Yulin region reaching 680-700 RMB/ton in late November, marking a 16.70% increase from the previous quarter [2][4] - The overall supply of coal is expected to be stable, with a gradual narrowing of the year-on-year decline in coal production, which was reported at 4.4 billion tons from January to November 2025, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [5] Group 2 - Coal inventories at the northern three ports have been accumulating, reaching approximately 29.75 million tons, which is close to historical highs, leading to a relaxed supply-demand situation and downward pressure on port coal prices [7] - Domestic coal imports remained relatively high in Q4 2025, with November imports recorded at 44.05 million tons, influenced by increased demand from power plants and the cost-effectiveness of imported coal compared to domestic sources [9] - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, coal prices are expected to hover at the bottom after a period of decline, with supply stabilizing post-New Year and potential production cuts as the Spring Festival approaches [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of domestic thermal coal has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. The closing price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port on December 25 was 682 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The coal market is dragged down by unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains high, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. Future stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents - **Price and Market Trend**: As of December 25, 2025, the 5500K thermal coal closing price at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan week - on - week, and it continued to be weak after breaking below 700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Driving Logic**: The weak coal market is mainly due to unexpectedly weak demand. The overall pattern of stable supply and weak demand leads to high coal inventories in the industrial chain, resulting in the weak operation of thermal coal prices [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The stabilization of thermal coal prices is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4].