Core Viewpoint - The Dutch government's seizure of the Chinese semiconductor company Nexperia has led to a global chip supply crisis, particularly affecting the European automotive industry, which is struggling with supply chain disruptions due to the refusal of Nexperia's European division to supply wafers to its Chinese counterpart [1][6]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruption - Nexperia's European customers are seeking alternative solutions to bypass the dispute between its European and Chinese operations, referred to as a "temporary patch," which involves purchasing silicon wafers directly from the European factory and shipping them to China for final packaging [1][3]. - The automotive sector is experiencing significant pressure due to chip shortages, impacting production for major companies like Volkswagen, Bosch, Continental, and Honda [3][4]. Group 2: Alternative Solutions - Nexperia (China) is exploring alternative wafer sources, including domestic Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, to mitigate supply chain disruptions [4][6]. - Other potential solutions being considered include sourcing similar chips from companies like Onsemi and STMicroelectronics [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Diplomatic Context - The Dutch government has frozen Nexperia's assets and intellectual property for one year, which has exacerbated the supply chain crisis and drawn criticism from China [6][7]. - Dutch officials acknowledge the importance of predictable supply chains and are seeking diplomatic dialogue with China to resolve the issues surrounding Nexperia [7][8].

Investment Rating The provided documents do not contain information about the industry investment rating. Core Views - The A - share market showed a downward adjustment, with high - dividend sectors performing strongly and technology - related industries experiencing pullbacks. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - The central bank's bond - buying scale was lower than expected, and Treasury bond futures are likely to be volatile in the short term. It is advisable to go long on Treasury bonds on dips and consider positive arbitrage strategies [5][6]. - Due to tightened liquidity and a stronger US dollar, precious metals prices dropped. In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but in the short term, they will fluctuate widely [7][8][9]. - The container shipping index (European route) is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [11][12]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices are affected by a strong US dollar and are expected to be weak in the short term but supported in the medium - to - long - term by supply - demand contradictions; alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile; aluminum prices will fluctuate widely; zinc prices will be volatile and slightly strong in the short term; tin prices will maintain a high - level shock; nickel prices will fluctuate within a range; stainless steel prices will be weakly volatile; and lithium carbonate prices will be weakly adjusted [12][17][20][25][28][32][35][38]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to test support levels, and the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils can be continued; iron ore prices are under pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be bullish in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to go long on dips [41][44][47][51]. - For agricultural products, meal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments; pig prices are weakly volatile; corn prices are in a low - level shock; and sugar prices are in a bottom - level shock [54][57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market opened lower and weakened. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined. High - dividend sectors were strong, while technology - related industries pulled back. It is recommended to wait and see as the market direction is unclear [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The central bank's bond - buying scale in October was lower than expected, and the bond market may enter a waiting stage. It is advisable to go long on Treasury bonds on dips and consider positive arbitrage strategies [5][6]. Precious Metals - The US government shutdown and potential changes in tariffs have tightened market liquidity, causing the US dollar to strengthen and precious metals prices to drop. In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but in the short term, they will fluctuate widely. Gold and silver prices both declined, with gold closing at $3931 per ounce, down 1.72%, and silver at $47.13 per ounce, down 1.89% [7][8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The spot quotes of container shipping vary among different shipping companies. The SCFIS and SCFI indices show different trends. The global container shipping capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US shows different performances. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 2000 points, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The strong US dollar suppresses copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the production of refined copper may decline slightly in November. The demand for copper has strong resilience. Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short term but supported in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract is expected to find support at 84000 and face resistance at 86500 [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market continues to test the support level of 2750. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose strongly recently but then pulled back. The supply may be affected by environmental protection in winter, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot trading of aluminum alloy is cold at high prices, and the supply of raw materials is tight. The demand shows a mild recovery. The price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level shock. The supply is expected to increase with limited amplitude, and the demand is average. The LME has a risk of short - squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots may open intermittently. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 22300 - 23000 [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The tin price maintains a high - level shock. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows a structural differentiation. The price is expected to be adjusted on dips, and it is recommended to go long on dips [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price shows a downward trend. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable in some sectors but weak in others. The inventory is high overseas and slightly decreasing in China. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price is weakly volatile. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [35][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is weakly adjusted. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is more optimistic than expected. The trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 76000 - 82000 [38][39][40]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to test support levels. The supply of iron elements is loose, and the profit of steel has declined. The inventory of steel is decreasing, but the winter storage pressure of plates is high. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has fallen back. The supply shows a pattern of decreased shipping and increased arrival, and the demand has weakened. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract on rallies and conduct positive arbitrage between the 1 - 5 contracts [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price is volatile. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has weakened. The inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48][50]. - **Coke**: The coke price is volatile. The third - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and the cost is supported by coking coal. The demand has weakened, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meals**: The meal price is undergoing high - level adjustments. The domestic soybean meal price has been lowered, and the market is waiting for further details of Sino - US trade. The supply of soybeans and soybean meal in China is high, but the cost support is strong [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is weakly volatile. The market supply is loose, and the secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined. The overall planned slaughter volume in November will slow down, which may boost the pig price to some extent [57][58]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure exists, and the selling pressure has not been realized. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. In the long - term, the corn market will be in a tight - balance pattern [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is in a bottom - level shock. The international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is under pressure but relatively resistant to decline. The spot market trading is not active [62].