Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current sentiment in the pig market is weak, with a phase of inventory reduction. The north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, group sales of piglets have decreased, and there is evidence of inventory accumulation from the recent pressure of fat pig sales. The official piglet numbers confirm the inventory, leading to a weakening of expectations. There is a possibility of a phase of weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and the far - month spread currently deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. Long - term, it is advisable to continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 are 13,355 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,690 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 13,360 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the pig 2507 contract, the trading volume is 5,426 lots (down 1,545 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 27,030 lots (down 704 lots from the previous day); for the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 14,313 lots (down 7,885 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 78,680 lots (down 663 lots from the previous day); for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 3,176 lots (down 1,047 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 32,179 lots (up 315 lots from the previous day) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507, 2509, and 2511 contracts are 1,395 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), 1,060 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 1,390 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The 7 - 9 spread is - 335 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 9 - 11 spread is 330 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. The strength levels are classified as weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the inventory destocking slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, the supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with destocking. The long - spread arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. Pay attention to the inflection point from destocking to stockpiling, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The long - spread arbitrage at home and abroad can be held. [3] - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored. [4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but there is macro - positive support. The short - spread arbitrage can be rolled over and held. [5] - For lead, the lead price fluctuates and rises this week. It is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [7] - For tin, the tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. [9] - For lithium carbonate, the price oscillates and declines. In the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price may still oscillate weakly in the long - term. [11] Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Situation**: The domestic inventory shows an inflection point this week. The spot premium in North China remains weak, and the overall selling pressure is high. The demand has strong current reality but weak expectations. [1] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 19.17 to 15.52. [1] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 2.82 to 1.42. [1] Zinc - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The supply side has a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side has general domestic demand elasticity and a slight recovery in European demand. [3] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 27 to - 32. [3] Nickel - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. [4] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 194 to - 202. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: The supply may be reduced passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, the cost of ferronickel is under pressure, and the inventory in Xifu area accumulates slightly. [5] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25. [5] Lead - **Market Situation**: The lead price fluctuates and rises this week. The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. [7] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 6,825 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 4 to - 18. [6] Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. The supply side has some production cuts in China, and the demand side has limited elasticity. [8] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 19 to - 56. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The social inventory begins to be depleted. [9] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 135, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 85. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price oscillates and declines. The production increases, the inventory accumulation slows down, and the downstream demand has mixed signals. [11] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 800, and the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 800. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory decline slope of copper may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the month - spread, follow - up upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1] - With the easing of the global trade tension and the decline in inventory, the aluminum price is expected to rebound. The month - spread positive arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2] - For zinc, pay attention to the turning point from inventory decline to accumulation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [5] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [8] - Lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically [10] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the medium - long term [14] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term, and there may be short - term replenishment demand from downstream [16] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 430, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 150, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,712. The LME inventory decreased by 5,275 [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelters were eager to sell under the high monthly spread, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80, the domestic alumina price increased by 30, and the Shanghai aluminum social inventory decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [1][2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots was large from January to March. The demand in May is expected to decline slightly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 975 [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic demand has general elasticity, and the export can be maintained. Overseas demand in Europe has slightly recovered [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,924 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level. The overall demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [6][7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of raw materials was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall consumption was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7][8][9] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot import profit decreased by 45.78, and the LME inventory decreased by 10 [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The African Alphamin mine has resumed production, and the supply of domestic raw materials is still disturbed. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 165, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Some factories have cut production, and the downstream demand for organic silicon and polysilicon is declining. The overall supply and demand have reached a tight balance, and the social inventory has started to decline [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 300, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 40 [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production has increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The downstream demand is in a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term [16]