1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On November 27, the BR12 main contract price was 10,400, up 40 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the持仓量 was 58,829, down 4,201 from the previous day and 9,418 from the previous week; the trading volume was 82,482, down 46,614 from the previous day and 84,873 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 15,450, up 70 from the previous day and 3,420 from the previous week; the long - short ratio was 19.04, down 1 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The 12 - 01 spread was - 52, up 5 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week; the 01 - 02 spread was 5, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; the RU - BR spread was 4,880, up 45 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was 1,805, unchanged from the previous day [4] - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 10,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,325, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 856, up 26 from the previous day and 103 from the previous week; the import profit was - 707, up 5 from the previous day and 205 from the previous week; the export profit was 1,637, down 5 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7,200, down 25 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 7,000, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the Yangtze ex - factory price was 7,100, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; CFR China was 820, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A, the carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,814, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the import profit was 288, down 22 from the previous day and 420 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,071, up 232 from the previous day and down 978 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,363, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit was - 302, unchanged from the previous day and up 85 from the previous week [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 27, 2025 [3] Key Information on BR Futures Data - BR主力合约(12): Price on November 26 was 10360, up 90 from the previous day and down 160 from October 27 [4] - Holdings: On November 26, it was 63030, down 5705 from the previous day and 8982 from October 27 [4] - Trading Volume: On November 26, it was 129096, up 15027 from the previous day and 15792 from October 27 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On November 26, it was 15380, up 2880 from the previous day and 3350 from October 27 [4] - Virtual - Real Ratio: On November 26, it was 20.49, down 7 from the previous day and 9 from October 27 [4] Basis and Spread - Cis - Butyl Basis: On November 26, it was 40, down 190 from the previous day and 40 from October 27 [4] - Butyl County Basis: On November 26, it was 490, down 190 from the previous day and 140 from October 27 [4] - 12 - 01 Spread: On November 26, it was - 30, unchanged from the previous day and October 27 [4] - 01 - 02 Spread: On November 26, it was 5, down 10 from the previous day and 15 from October 27 [4] - RU - BR Spread: On November 26, it was 4835, down 20 from the previous day and up 105 from October 27 [4] - NR - BR Spread: On November 26, it was 1805, down 75 from the previous day and up 5 from October 27 [4] Spot Prices and Profits - Shandong Market Price: On November 26, it was 10400, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from October 27 [4] - Transfar Market Price: On November 26, it was 10250, down 50 from the previous day and 200 from October 27 [4] - Qilu Factory Price: On November 26, it was 10400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from October 27 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: On November 26, it was 1325, unchanged from the previous day and down 55 from October 27 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: On November 26, it was 1600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from October 27 [4] - Spot Processing Profit: On November 26, it was 831, down 177 from the previous day and up 121 from October 27 [4] - Import Profit: On November 26, it was - 712, down 100 from the previous day and up 43 from October 27 [4] - Export Profit: On November 26, it was 1642, up 87 from the previous day and down 152 from October 27 [4] Key Information on BD Spot Prices - Shandong Market Price: On November 26, it was 7225, up 75 from the previous day and down 315 from October 27 [4] - Jiangsu Market Price: On November 26, it was 7025, up 75 from the previous day and down 275 from October 27 [4] - Yangzi Factory Price: On November 26, it was 7100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from October 27 [4] - CFR China: On November 26, it was 820, up 20 from the previous day and 50 from October 27 [4] Profits - Ethylene Cracking Profit: Data for November 26 was not available [4] - C4 Extraction Profit: Data for November 26 was not available [4] - Butylene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit: On November 26, it was - 1789, up 75 from the previous day and down 275 from October 27 [4] - Import Profit: On November 26, it was 310, down 85 from the previous day and 652 from October 27 [4] - Export Profit: On November 26, it was - 1302, down from the previous day and 1060 from October 27 [4] - Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit: On November 26, it was 1363, up 50 from the previous day and down 38 from October 27 [4] - ABS Production Profit: On November 26, it was - 359, down 58 from the previous day [4] - SBS Production Profit: On November 26, it was - 302, up 40 from the previous day and 82 from October 27 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has recovered, with sufficient overall supply. The downstream continues to purchase at low prices, putting pressure on the negotiation focus of the spot market. Some industry players expect a reduction in the mainstream supply price. Before the National Day holiday, downstream demand for stockpiling is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels [8] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - Market review: The price of the cis - butadiene rubber market in Shandong, China, fluctuated weakly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's main sales companies were reduced by 200 yuan/ton in total. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Affected by downstream low - price purchases, the negotiation focus of the spot market is under pressure. Some industry players expect a price cut. The inventories of enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased slightly. Before the National Day holiday, downstream stockpiling demand is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fell by 1.08% this week [12] - As of September 19, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 70 [18] - As of September 19, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week [21] - **Spot Market** - As of September 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of September 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of September 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 599.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.56 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [28] - As of September 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from last week [31] - **Production and Profit of Cis - Butadiene Rubber** - In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month [34] - As of September 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.56% from last week [34] - As of September 18, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan/ton from last week [37] - **Inventory** - As of September 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,720 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [41] - As of September 19, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons from last week [41] - **Downstream** - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. Most tire enterprises maintained last week's production level, and some enterprises still faced shortages. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders were in the concentrated production period, which supported the overall operation [44] - In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Recently, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. The previously shut - down devices have not yet resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Next week, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the cautious sentiment of downstream and the production and sales pressure of downstream, the purchase in the market may be cautious, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly this week. Some large semi - steel tire enterprises had about a week of maintenance arrangements, which dragged down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The shutdown sample enterprises of all - steel tires resumed work, and the current device production schedule has returned to the level before the shutdown, driving up the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. As the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, there is still a small room for the capacity utilization rate to increase, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, which will drag down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - The short - term of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cost supports supply price; previous shutdown devices not fully recovered; inventory declining; next week some devices to restart, supply to increase; downstream purchase cautious, finished product inventory to rise; tire capacity utilization rate with small fluctuations, overall order average, production control to continue [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided except for the topic of "Position Analysis of the Top 20 Holders of Cis - Butadiene Rubber" [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 15, the spread between September and October of butadiene rubber was - 5 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of August 15, the warehouse receipt of cis - butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, an increase of 0 tons compared with last week [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 14, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,1800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, the basis of butadiene rubber was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3.2.3 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 14, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 571 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 825 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, an increase of 0.33% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with last week [31] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month; as of August 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 3.65% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 14, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 30,440 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 23,450 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,990 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%; from January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [48]