Report Overview - The report is a synthetic rubber morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 31, 2026 [2][3] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On March 30, the closing price of the BR main contract was 17,725, a daily decrease of 115. The open interest was 87,205, a daily decrease of 14,951. The trading volume was 800,879, a daily decrease of 278,976. The warrant quantity was 48,800, a daily decrease of 950. The long - short ratio was 8.93, a daily decrease of 1 [4] - The basis of BR (compared to spot) was 275, a daily increase of 115. The 05 - 06 spread was 100, a daily decrease of 65. The 06 - 07 spread was 235, a daily decrease of 20. The RU - BR spread was - 1,185, a daily increase of 145. The NR - BR spread was - 3,880, a daily increase of 225 [4] Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 900. The Transfar market price was 18,050, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 850. The Qilu ex - factory price was 18,500, unchanged from the previous day and the week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 250. CFR Southeast Asia was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 352 [4] Profit Situation - The spot processing profit was - 2,662, a daily increase of 102. The import profit was - 850, a daily increase of 3. The export profit was 1,677, a daily decrease of 3 [4] BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 18,100, a daily decrease of 100, with a weekly increase of 100. The Jiangsu market price was 18,100, unchanged from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 200. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and the week [4] - CFR China was 2,580, a daily decrease of 20, with a weekly increase of 280 [4] Profit Situation - The ethylene cracking profit was 17 (data for March 27, data for March 30 was not available). The carbon - four extraction profit data for March 30 was not available. The butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was 6,150, a daily decrease of 210, with a weekly decrease of 80 [4] - The import profit was - 2,201, a daily increase of 159. The export profit was - 345, a daily increase of 343 [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was - 13, a daily decrease of 100. The ABS production profit data for March 30 was not available. The SBS production profit was - 1,655, a daily decrease of 120 [4] Data sources for the report are Mysteel and Wind [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report date: March 12, 2026 [3] - Data sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Information Futures - BR main contract closing price on March 11: 15,615, daily change of 680, weekly change of 1,790 [4] - Open interest on March 11: 26,320, daily change of 1,578, weekly change of -6,650 [4] - Trading volume on March 11: 274,647, daily change of -23,558, weekly change of -1,815 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on March 11: 46,320, daily change of 1,070, weekly change of 5,080 [4] - Long - short ratio on March 11: 2.84 [4] - Butadiene rubber basis on March 11: -615, daily change of -280, weekly change of -190 [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on March 11: -315, daily change of -180, weekly change of -190 [4] - 02 - 03 spread on March 11: -245, daily change of -280, weekly change of -102 [4] - 03 - 04 spread on March 11: -1,030, daily change of -392, weekly change of -932 [4] - RU - BR spread on March 11: 1,565, daily change of -615, weekly change of -1,350 [4] - NR - BR spread on March 11: -1,895, daily change of -645, weekly change of -1,605 [4] Spot - Shandong market price on March 11: 15,000, daily change of 400, weekly change of 1,600 [4] - Chuanhua market price on March 11: 15,000, daily change of 500, weekly change of 1,600 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on March 11: 15,600, daily change of 400, weekly change of 2,200 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on March 11: 1,750 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on March 11: 1,925, daily change of 25, weekly change of 25 [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on March 11: -1,888, daily change of 145, weekly change of -1,460 [4] - Import profit on March 11: 907, daily change of 266, weekly change of 1,486 [4] - Export profit on March 11: -443, daily change of -232, weekly change of -1,294 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Information Spot - Shandong market price on March 11: 14,400, daily change of 250, weekly change of 3,000 [4] - Jiangsu market price on March 11: 15,250, daily change of 950, weekly change of 4,050 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on March 11: 15,000, daily change of 0, weekly change of 3,700 [4] - CFR China on March 11: 1,800, daily change of 0, weekly change of 480 [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit on March 10: 51 [4] - C4 extraction profit on March 10: 6,100 [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit: 1,850 [4] - Import profit on March 11: 1,112, daily change of 1,012, weekly change of 380 [4] - Export profit on March 11: -3,583, daily change of -41, weekly change of -1,990 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on March 11: -425, daily change of 400, weekly change of -950 [4] - ABS production profit: Data not available [4] - SBS production profit on March 11: -870, daily change of 0, weekly change of -360 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 15,000 in the short - term [7] - The cost support for butadiene rubber remains strong due to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. With high capacity utilization, increasing downstream demand, and upcoming plant maintenance, spot - end inventory is expected to decline significantly. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy**: The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 13,500 - 15,000 range [7] - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared this week, with spot prices ranging from 12,100 - 14,100 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is strong. With high capacity utilization, downstream demand is increasing. After the Spring Festival, downstream procurement demand has gradually picked up, and the negotiation focus has risen. With some plant maintenance in late March, spot - end inventory is expected to decline. However, the Middle East conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 15.71% [12] - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in a summarized form in the content - **Inter - month Spread**: As of March 6, the 4 - 5 spread of butadiene rubber was 105 [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 6, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 18,930 tons, an increase of 390 tons from last week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Price**: As of March 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from last week [27] - **Basis**: As of March 5, the butadiene rubber basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of March 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 774.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 137.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 140 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of March 6, the butadiene weekly capacity utilization rate was 76.28%, an increase of 0.99% from last week, and the port inventory was 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week [33] 3.3.2. Butadiene Rubber Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In February 2026, butadiene rubber production was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. As of March 5, the domestic butadiene rubber weekly capacity utilization rate was 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week [36] - **Production Profit**: As of March 5, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton from last week [39] - **Inventory**: As of March 6, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 43,420 tons, a decrease of 10,050 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week [43] 3.3.3. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. The Middle East conflict may limit the increase in capacity utilization [46] - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January - December 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [49]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: March 6, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Key Points 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) 1.1 Futures Information - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the BR main contract on March 5 was 14,210, with a daily increase of 385 and a weekly increase of 1,510 [4]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on March 5 was 34,953, with a daily increase of 1,983 and a weekly increase of 28,010 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on March 5 was 344,886, with a daily increase of 68,424 and a weekly increase of 292,767 [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The warehouse receipt quantity on March 5 was 41,340, with a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 1,470 [4]. - **Virtual - Physical Ratio**: The virtual - physical ratio on March 5 was 4.23, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3 [4]. 1.2 Basis and Spread Information - **Butadiene - BR Basis**: The butadiene - BR basis on March 5 was - 210, with a daily increase of 215 and a weekly decrease of 110 [4]. - **Styrene - Butadiene - BR Basis**: The styrene - butadiene - BR basis on March 5 was - 110, with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly decrease of 410 [4]. - **02 - 03 Spread**: The 02 - 03 spread on March 5 was - 30, with a daily increase of 110 and a weekly decrease of 340 [4]. - **03 - 04 Spread**: The 03 - 04 spread on March 5 was - 60, with a daily increase of 35 and a weekly increase of 10 [4]. - **RU - BR Spread**: The RU - BR spread on March 5 was 2,345, with a daily decrease of 570 and a weekly decrease of 2,080 [4]. - **NR - BR Spread**: The NR - BR spread on March 5 was - 840, with a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 1,995 [4]. 1.3 Spot Information - **Shandong Market Price**: The Shandong market price on March 5 was 14,000, with a daily increase of 600 and a weekly increase of 1,400 [4]. - **Chuanhua Market Price**: The Chuanhua market price on March 5 was 13,900, with a daily increase of 500 and a weekly increase of 1,350 [4]. - **Qilu Factory Price**: The Qilu factory price on March 5 was 13,400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 400 [4]. - **CFR Northeast Asia**: The CFR Northeast Asia price on March 5 was 1,725, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 25 [4]. - **CFR Southeast Asia**: The CFR Southeast Asia price on March 5 was 1,900, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. 1.4 Profit Information - **Spot Processing Profit**: The spot processing profit on March 5 was - 899, with a daily decrease of 471 and a weekly decrease of 793 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit on March 5 was 72, with a daily increase of 652 and a weekly increase of 1,106 [4]. - **Export Profit**: The export profit on March 5 was 281, with a daily decrease of 269 and a weekly decrease of 784 [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) 2.1 Spot Information - **Shandong Market Price**: The Shandong market price on March 5 was 12,450, with a daily increase of 1,050 and a weekly increase of 2,150 [4]. - **Jiangsu Market Price**: The Jiangsu market price on March 5 was 12,450, with a daily increase of 1,250 and a weekly increase of 2,300 [4]. - **Yangzi Factory Price**: The Yangzi factory price on March 5 was 12,200, with a daily increase of 900 and a weekly increase of 2,000 [4]. - **CFR China**: The CFR China price on March 5 was 1,380, with a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 105 [4]. 2.2 Profit Information - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit on March 5 was not available, and previous data showed a decreasing trend [4]. - **C4 Extraction Profit**: The C4 extraction profit on March 5 was not available, and previous data showed a decreasing trend [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit on March 5 was 1,553, with a daily increase of 821 and a weekly increase of 1,410 [4]. - **Export Profit**: The export profit on March 5 was - 2,677, with a daily decrease of 1,119 and a weekly decrease of 1,906 [4]. 3. Other Product Profit Information - **Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit**: The styrene - butadiene production profit on March 5 was 213, with a daily decrease of 313 and a weekly decrease of 950 [4]. - **ABS Production Profit**: The ABS production profit on March 5 was - 308, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - **SBS Production Profit**: The SBS production profit on March 5 was - 1,305, with a daily decrease of 795 and a weekly decrease of 700 [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: February 27, 2026 [3] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On February 26, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,700, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly increase of 195 compared to January 28 [4]. - The open interest was 6,943, a daily decrease of 3,597 and a weekly decrease of 8,047 [4]. - The trading volume was 52,119, a daily decrease of 46,368 and a weekly decrease of 100,054 [4]. - The warrant quantity was 39,870, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 560 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -100, with a daily increase of 145 and a weekly decrease of 45 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 300, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 45 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was 310, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 365 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -70, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly increase of 15 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4425, a daily increase of 230 and a weekly increase of 615 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1155, a daily increase of 220 and a weekly increase of 480 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 12,600, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 12,550, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,700, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,850, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Profitability - The spot processing profit was -106, a daily increase of 106 and a weekly increase of 405 [4]. - The import profit was -1034, a daily decrease of 116 and a weekly increase of 283 [4]. - The export profit was 1066, a daily increase of 98 and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 10,300, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 10,150, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,200, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 100 [4]. - The CFR China price was 1275, with no daily change and the weekly comparison was N/A [4]. Profitability - The ethylene cracking profit was N/A, and previous data showed a range from -21 to -34 [4]. - The C4 extraction profit was N/A, and previous data showed a range from 3154 to 3604 [4]. - The import profit was 143, a daily decrease of 88, and the weekly comparison was N/A [4]. - The export profit was -771, a daily increase of 79 and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. Production Profit - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1163, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 250 [4]. - The ABS production profit was -308, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 139 [4]. - The SBS production profit was -701, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 240 [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: January 21, 2026 [3] Report Core Content 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On January 20, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,585, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 665 [4]. - The open interest was 91,002, a daily decrease of 3,182 and a weekly decrease of 9,574 [4]. - The trading volume was 106,084, a daily decrease of 8,713 and a weekly decrease of 70,947 [4]. - The warrant quantity was 24,330, a daily decrease of 1,700 and a weekly decrease of 2,000 [4]. - The long - short ratio was 18.70, with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 0 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -32, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 215 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 315, a daily decrease of 180 and a weekly increase of 315 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was -25, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -40, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,035, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly increase of 125 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,050, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,550, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 450 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 11,450, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 500 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 400 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,550, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit was -340, a daily decrease of 99 and a weekly decrease of 144 [4]. - The import profit was -1,140, a daily decrease of 144 and a weekly decrease of 1,208 [4]. - The export profit was 1,496, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 886 [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 300 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 350 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,550, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - The CFR China price was 1,180, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was -23 on January 19, and data for January 20 was not available [4]. - The C4 extraction profit was 2,742 on January 19, and data for January 20 was not available [4]. - The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 710, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 280 [4]. - The import profit was -132, a daily decrease of 96 and a weekly decrease of 919 [4]. - The export profit was -758, a daily increase of 223 and a weekly increase of 1,926 [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 438, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. - The ABS production profit data after January 17 was not available [4]. - The SBS production profit was -645, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 60 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,550 - 12,500 in the short - term [7] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained high. The strong demand for raw material butadiene and rumors of some export deals have driven up production costs significantly. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to obvious differences in negotiations. Inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees. Although short - term production profits have been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply - side production cuts yet. Downstream terminals lack the willingness to actively stock up at high prices, and inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to remain high [8] - With the gradual stabilization of the production schedules of overhauled enterprises this week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production schedule of the devices is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to control inventory [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,550 - 12,500 in the short - term [7] - Market review: This week, the butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export deals, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12,100 - 12,300 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Domestic butadiene rubber supply remains high. The cost has increased significantly, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong. Inventories of production and trading enterprises have increased. There are no signs of supply - side production cuts, and downstream terminals lack the willingness to stock up. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased, with semi - steel tire production expected to be stable and all - steel tire production still under control [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [12] - As of January 16, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 60 [19] - As of January 16, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,530 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [22] 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of January 15, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - As of January 15, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - As of January 15, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 556.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 720 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, a decrease of 1.89% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week [33] 3.3.2 Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [36] - As of January 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.68%, an increase of 0.53% from last week [36] - As of January 15, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 721 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton from last week [39] - As of January 16, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,940 tons, an increase of 1,820 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,900 tons, an increase of 550 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from last week [43] 3.3.3 Downstream - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [46] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the raw material increased after the rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened beyond expectations, and the compression of production profit drove the spot market price up. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,250 to 11,000 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and the main sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton in total, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina Southwest increased by 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Most of the previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have gradually restarted, and the domestic production has increased. This week, the operation gradually resumed, but the flow of goods was average, the inventory of production enterprises increased, and the monthly plan on the spot side was gradually implemented, but the market transaction follow - up was average, and the inventory of trading enterprises also increased. With a large amount of circulating resources on the spot side and a high load of domestic production plants, the supply pressure remained high. In terms of demand, tire enterprises arranged production flexibly this week, some enterprises controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises was weak, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises had shutdown and production - limit phenomena [6]. - The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of raw materials increased after rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened, and the spot market price rose. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong continued to rise, and the ex - factory prices of major sales companies increased [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply pressure is high due to the restart of plants and increased inventory, while the demand is weak as tire enterprises face seasonal off - season and production and sales pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,650 and 11,400 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided other than the topic of "Position Analysis of the top 20 in cis - butadiene rubber" [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the spread between contracts 2 and 3 of butadiene rubber was - 25 [16]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of December 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of December 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Prices of Naphtha and Ethylene**: As of December 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 534.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.87 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory of Butadiene**: As of December 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.55%, a decrease of 0.62% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 36,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [32]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: In November 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26%, an increase of 5.57% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of December 18, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of December 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,010 tons, an increase of 2,060 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 27,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,410 tons, an increase of 960 tons from last week [42]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. Enterprises arranged production flexibly, and some controlled production, with the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises being weak [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market provides some support for the price of butadiene rubber. With the influence of external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has slowly moved up [9]. - Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Although the inventory of some previously shut - down production enterprises has decreased significantly, most production enterprises still face high shipment pressure. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has increased slightly. In the short term, the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [9]. - The resumption of production by previously shut - down tire enterprises has led to a week - on - week increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - Market review: The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market supports the price of butadiene rubber. With external news, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has moved up. The price of butadiene rubber in Shandong market has slightly increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [9]. - Market outlook: Production capacity has recovered, production enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, trading enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and both are expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand side has a week - on - week increase in capacity utilization rate, but the increase is limited, and some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.73% [13]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of December 12, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [20]. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 12, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, an increase of 1,220 tons from last week [23]. Spot Market - Spot price: As of December 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in Shandong market was 10,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of December 11, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 11, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 554.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 745 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of December 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons from last week [34]. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In November 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of December 11, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of December 12, the domestic social inventory of butadiene rubber was 31,950 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons from last week [44]. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [47]. - Tire export volume: In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [50]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [3] BR Main Contract Data - **Price**: On November 11, it was 10240; on December 5, 10410; on December 9, 10450; on December 10, 10605; on December 11, 10710, with a daily change of 105 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Open Interest**: On November 11, it was 82041; on December 5, 30197; on December 9, 76409; on December 10, 80546; on December 11, 86990, with a daily change of 6444 and a weekly change of 56793 [4] - **Trading Volume**: On November 11, it was 89151; on December 5, 65443; on December 9, 111045; on December 10, 126992; on December 11, 155798, with a daily change of 28806 and a weekly change of 90355 [4] - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: On November 11, it was 12610; on December 5, 13320; on December 9, 17320; on December 10, 19020; on December 11, 19320, with a daily change of 300 and a weekly change of 6000 [4] - **Virtual-to-Physical Ratio**: On November 11, it was 32.53; on December 5, 11.34; on December 9, 22.06; on December 10, 21.17; on December 11, 22.51, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 11 [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 160; on December 5, 40; on December 9, 50; on December 10, -22; on December 11, -60, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -100 [4] - **Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 560; on December 5, 540; on December 9, 550; on December 10, 445; on December 11, 490, with a daily change of 45 and a weekly change of -50 [4] BR Basis/Spread/Inter-Variety Data - **02 - 03 Spread**: On November 11, it was -52; on December 5, -30; on December 9, -20; on December 10, -15; on December 11, -20, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 10 [4] - **03 - 04 Spread**: On November 11, it was -50; on December 5, -50; on December 9, -45; on December 10, -12; on December 11, -15, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 35 [4] - **RU - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 4855; on December 5, 4655; on December 9, 4535; on December 10, 4610; on December 11, 4475, with a daily change of -135 and a weekly change of -180 [4] - **NR - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 1885; on December 5, 1635; on December 9, 1630; on December 10, 1665; on December 11, 1560, with a daily change of -105 and a weekly change of -75 [4] BR Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10400; on December 5, 10450; on December 9, 10500; on December 10, 10550; on December 11, 10650, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - **Chuanhua Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10250; on December 5, 10400; on December 9, 10400; on December 10, 10500; on December 11, 10580, with a daily change of 80 and a weekly change of 180 [4] - **Qilu Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 10200; on December 5, 10600; on December 9, 10600; on December 10, 10600; on December 11, 10600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **CFR Northeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1400; on December 5, 1300; on December 9, 1325; on December 10, 1325; on December 11, 1325, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - **CFR Southeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1685; on December 5, 1575; on December 9, 1600; on December 10, 1600; on December 11, 1600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] BR Profit Data - **Spot Processing Profit**: On November 11, it was 1086; on December 5, 906; on December 9, 905; on December 10, 802; on December 11, 775, with a daily change of -28 and a weekly change of -132 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was -1366; on December 5, -442; on December 9, -579; on December 10, -529; on December 11, -428, with a daily change of 102 and a weekly change of 14 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was 2297; on December 5, 1401; on December 9, 1522; on December 10, 1479; on December 11, 1390, with a daily change of -89 and a weekly change of -11 [4] BD Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6975; on December 5, 7200; on December 9, 7250; on December 10, 7400; on December 11, 7525, with a daily change of 125 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - **Jiangsu Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6850; on December 5, 7050; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7250; on December 11, 7350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Yangzi Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 6900; on December 5, 7100; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7200; on December 11, 7200, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - **CFR China**: On November 11, it was 790; on December 5, 850; on December 9, 860; on December 10, 860; on December 11, 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10 [4] BD Profit Data - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: On November 11, it was -88; on December 5, -64; on December 9, -62; on December 10, -61 [4] - **Carbon - four Extraction Profit**: On November 11, it was -134; on December 5, 172; on December 9, 276; on December 10, 304 [4] - **BD Overall Profit**: On November 11, it was -1824; on December 5, -1764; on December 9, -1614; on December 10, -1634; on December 11, -1534, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 230 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was 346; on December 5, 108; on December 9, 186; on December 10, 236; on December 11, 337, with a daily change of 101 and a weekly change of 229 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was -982; on December 5, -1192; on December 9, -975; on December 10, -1019; on December 11, -1036, with a daily change of -17 and a weekly change of 156 [4] Other Production Profit Data - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 1175; on December 5, 1538; on December 9, 1450; on December 10, 1450; on December 11, 1450, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -88 [4] - **ABS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 56; on December 5, -697 [4] - **SBS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was -90; on December 5, -332; on December 9, -420; on December 10, -420; on December 11, -420, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -82 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]