瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 目录 行情回顾：本周原料端刚需买盘跟进后价格走高，成本面支撑超预期走强及生产利润压缩带动现 货市场行情上探。山东市场顺丁橡胶价格延续上探，现货价格区间在10250-11000元/吨。中石化 化销及中石油主要销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶出厂价格累计上调300元/吨，中石油西南出厂价格累计 上调400元/吨。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升。本周开工逐步恢复，货 源流转情况略显一般，生产企业库存有所增量，现货端月度计划陆续执行，但市场成交跟进一般， 贸易企业货权库存亦有增量。现货端流通资源及国内生产装置负荷较高局面下，供应压力仍处于 较高水平。需求方面，本周轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，国内轮胎企业产能利用率 偏弱运行，进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存 停限产现象。 策略建议： br2602合约短线预计在10650-11400区间波动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market provides some support for the price of butadiene rubber. With the influence of external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has slowly moved up [9]. - Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Although the inventory of some previously shut - down production enterprises has decreased significantly, most production enterprises still face high shipment pressure. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has increased slightly. In the short term, the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [9]. - The resumption of production by previously shut - down tire enterprises has led to a week - on - week increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - Market review: The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market supports the price of butadiene rubber. With external news, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has moved up. The price of butadiene rubber in Shandong market has slightly increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [9]. - Market outlook: Production capacity has recovered, production enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, trading enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and both are expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand side has a week - on - week increase in capacity utilization rate, but the increase is limited, and some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.73% [13]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of December 12, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [20]. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 12, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, an increase of 1,220 tons from last week [23]. Spot Market - Spot price: As of December 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in Shandong market was 10,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of December 11, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 11, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 554.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 745 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of December 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons from last week [34]. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In November 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of December 11, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of December 12, the domestic social inventory of butadiene rubber was 31,950 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons from last week [44]. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [47]. - Tire export volume: In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [50]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [3] BR Main Contract Data - **Price**: On November 11, it was 10240; on December 5, 10410; on December 9, 10450; on December 10, 10605; on December 11, 10710, with a daily change of 105 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Open Interest**: On November 11, it was 82041; on December 5, 30197; on December 9, 76409; on December 10, 80546; on December 11, 86990, with a daily change of 6444 and a weekly change of 56793 [4] - **Trading Volume**: On November 11, it was 89151; on December 5, 65443; on December 9, 111045; on December 10, 126992; on December 11, 155798, with a daily change of 28806 and a weekly change of 90355 [4] - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: On November 11, it was 12610; on December 5, 13320; on December 9, 17320; on December 10, 19020; on December 11, 19320, with a daily change of 300 and a weekly change of 6000 [4] - **Virtual-to-Physical Ratio**: On November 11, it was 32.53; on December 5, 11.34; on December 9, 22.06; on December 10, 21.17; on December 11, 22.51, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 11 [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 160; on December 5, 40; on December 9, 50; on December 10, -22; on December 11, -60, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of -100 [4] - **Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Basis**: On November 11, it was 560; on December 5, 540; on December 9, 550; on December 10, 445; on December 11, 490, with a daily change of 45 and a weekly change of -50 [4] BR Basis/Spread/Inter-Variety Data - **02 - 03 Spread**: On November 11, it was -52; on December 5, -30; on December 9, -20; on December 10, -15; on December 11, -20, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 10 [4] - **03 - 04 Spread**: On November 11, it was -50; on December 5, -50; on December 9, -45; on December 10, -12; on December 11, -15, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 35 [4] - **RU - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 4855; on December 5, 4655; on December 9, 4535; on December 10, 4610; on December 11, 4475, with a daily change of -135 and a weekly change of -180 [4] - **NR - BR Spread**: On November 11, it was 1885; on December 5, 1635; on December 9, 1630; on December 10, 1665; on December 11, 1560, with a daily change of -105 and a weekly change of -75 [4] BR Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10400; on December 5, 10450; on December 9, 10500; on December 10, 10550; on December 11, 10650, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 200 [4] - **Chuanhua Market Price**: On November 11, it was 10250; on December 5, 10400; on December 9, 10400; on December 10, 10500; on December 11, 10580, with a daily change of 80 and a weekly change of 180 [4] - **Qilu Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 10200; on December 5, 10600; on December 9, 10600; on December 10, 10600; on December 11, 10600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [4] - **CFR Northeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1400; on December 5, 1300; on December 9, 1325; on December 10, 1325; on December 11, 1325, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - **CFR Southeast Asia**: On November 11, it was 1685; on December 5, 1575; on December 9, 1600; on December 10, 1600; on December 11, 1600, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 25 [4] BR Profit Data - **Spot Processing Profit**: On November 11, it was 1086; on December 5, 906; on December 9, 905; on December 10, 802; on December 11, 775, with a daily change of -28 and a weekly change of -132 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was -1366; on December 5, -442; on December 9, -579; on December 10, -529; on December 11, -428, with a daily change of 102 and a weekly change of 14 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was 2297; on December 5, 1401; on December 9, 1522; on December 10, 1479; on December 11, 1390, with a daily change of -89 and a weekly change of -11 [4] BD Spot Data - **Shandong Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6975; on December 5, 7200; on December 9, 7250; on December 10, 7400; on December 11, 7525, with a daily change of 125 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - **Jiangsu Market Price**: On November 11, it was 6850; on December 5, 7050; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7250; on December 11, 7350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 300 [4] - **Yangzi Ex - factory Price**: On November 11, it was 6900; on December 5, 7100; on December 9, 7200; on December 10, 7200; on December 11, 7200, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100 [4] - **CFR China**: On November 11, it was 790; on December 5, 850; on December 9, 860; on December 10, 860; on December 11, 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10 [4] BD Profit Data - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: On November 11, it was -88; on December 5, -64; on December 9, -62; on December 10, -61 [4] - **Carbon - four Extraction Profit**: On November 11, it was -134; on December 5, 172; on December 9, 276; on December 10, 304 [4] - **BD Overall Profit**: On November 11, it was -1824; on December 5, -1764; on December 9, -1614; on December 10, -1634; on December 11, -1534, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 230 [4] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, it was 346; on December 5, 108; on December 9, 186; on December 10, 236; on December 11, 337, with a daily change of 101 and a weekly change of 229 [4] - **Export Profit**: On November 11, it was -982; on December 5, -1192; on December 9, -975; on December 10, -1019; on December 11, -1036, with a daily change of -17 and a weekly change of 156 [4] Other Production Profit Data - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 1175; on December 5, 1538; on December 9, 1450; on December 10, 1450; on December 11, 1450, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -88 [4] - **ABS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was 56; on December 5, -697 [4] - **SBS Production Profit**: On November 11, it was -90; on December 5, -332; on December 9, -420; on December 10, -420; on December 11, -420, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -82 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 10, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12): Price on 12/9 was 10,450, down 65 from the previous day and 125 from the previous week [4] - 持仓量: On 12/9, it was 76,409, up 48,955 from the previous day and 37,423 from the previous week [4] - 成交量: In Germany, on 12/9, it was 111,045, up 48,226 from the previous day and down 11,618 from the previous week [4] - 仓単数量: On 12/9, it was 17,320, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,870 from the previous week [4] - 虚实比: On 12/9, it was 22.06, up 14 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] Basis and Spread - 顺丁基差: On 12/9, it was 50, with a daily change not provided and up 125 from the previous week [4] - 丁本县差: On 12/9, it was 520, up 115 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01: On 12/9, it was 20, up 10 from the previous day and 85 from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02: On 12/9, it was -20, down 5 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR: On 12/9, it was 4,535, down 15 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR: On 12/9, it was 1,630, up 80 from the previous day and 120 from the previous week [4] Spot - 山东市场价: On 12/9, it was 10,500, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - 传化市场价: On 12/9, it was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: On 12/9, it was 10,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR东北亚: On 12/9, it was 1,325, up 25 from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR东南亚: On 12/9, it was 1,600, up 25 from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - 现货加工利润: On 12/9, it was 702, down 51 from the previous day and 179 from the previous week [4] - 进口利润: On 12/9, it was -579, down 190 from the previous day and 199 from the previous week [4] - 出口利润: On 12/9, it was 1,522, up 167 from the previous day and 176 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - 山东市场价: On 12/9, it was 7,250, down 50 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week [4] - 江苏市场价: On 12/9, it was 7,200, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4] - 扬子出厂价: On 12/9, it was 7,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4] - CFR中国: On 12/9, it was 860, unchanged from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week [4] Profit - 乙烯裂解利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - 碳四抽提利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润: On 12/9, it was -1,614, down 50 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [4] - 进口利润: On 12/9, it was 186, down 44 from the previous day and 369 from the previous week [4] - 出口利润: On 12/9, it was -975, up 39 from the previous day and 396 from the previous week [4] Production Profit - 丁苯生产利润: On 12/9, it was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 88 from the previous week [4] - ABS生产利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - SBS生产利润: On 12/9, it was -420, unchanged from the previous day and down 85 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources include Mysteel and Wind [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report date: December 3, 2025 [3] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Data Futures Data - BR main contract (12): Price on December 2 was 10,685, with a daily change of 375 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - Open interest: On December 2, it was 45,603, a daily decrease of 3,201 and a weekly decrease of 17,427 [4] - Trading volume: On December 2, it was 171,287, a daily increase of 47,471 and a weekly increase of 42,191 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity: On December 2, it was 15,490, a daily decrease of 350 and a weekly increase of 110 [4] - Virtual - to - physical ratio: On December 2, it was 14.72, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] Basis and Spread Data - Butadiene rubber (BR) basis: - 275 on December 2, a daily decrease of 225 [4] - Styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) basis: - 275 on December 2, a weekly decrease of 175 [4] - 12 - 01 spread: - 25 on December 2, a weekly decrease of 25 [4] - 01 - 02 spread: - 15 on December 2, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4] - RU - BR spread: 4675 on December 2, a daily decrease of 265 and a weekly decrease of 160 [4] - NR - BR spread: 1545 on December 2, a daily decrease of 315 and a weekly decrease of 260 [4] Spot and Price - related Data - Shandong market price: 10,500 on December 2, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - Transfar market price: 10,400 on December 2, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price: 10,600 on December 2, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: 1325, no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: 1600, no daily or weekly change [4] Profit Data - Spot processing profit: 110 on December 2, a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 181 [4] - Import profit: - 592 on December 2, a daily increase of 100 [4] - Export profit: 1600 on December 2, a daily decrease of 87 and a weekly decrease of 107 [4] Group 3: Other Product Data SBR Data - Shandong market price: 7500 on December 2, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 275 [4] - Jiangsu market price: 7250 on December 2, a daily increase of 225 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price: 7100, no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR China: 820, no daily change and a weekly increase of 20 [4] - Ethylene cracking profit: Data not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit: - 1564 on December 2, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 225 [4] - Import profit: 547 on December 2, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 77 [4] - Export profit: - 1154 on December 2, a daily decrease of 196 and a weekly decrease of 418 [4] - SBR production profit: 1563 on December 2, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] BD - Related Profit Data - C4 extraction profit: Data not available [4] - ABS production profit: Data not available [4] - SBS production profit: - 302, no daily or weekly change [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On November 27, the BR12 main contract price was 10,400, up 40 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the持仓量 was 58,829, down 4,201 from the previous day and 9,418 from the previous week; the trading volume was 82,482, down 46,614 from the previous day and 84,873 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 15,450, up 70 from the previous day and 3,420 from the previous week; the long - short ratio was 19.04, down 1 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The 12 - 01 spread was - 52, up 5 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week; the 01 - 02 spread was 5, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; the RU - BR spread was 4,880, up 45 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was 1,805, unchanged from the previous day [4] - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 10,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,325, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 856, up 26 from the previous day and 103 from the previous week; the import profit was - 707, up 5 from the previous day and 205 from the previous week; the export profit was 1,637, down 5 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7,200, down 25 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 7,000, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the Yangtze ex - factory price was 7,100, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; CFR China was 820, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A, the carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,814, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the import profit was 288, down 22 from the previous day and 420 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,071, up 232 from the previous day and down 978 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,363, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit was - 302, unchanged from the previous day and up 85 from the previous week [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 27, 2025 [3] Key Information on BR Futures Data - BR主力合约(12): Price on November 26 was 10360, up 90 from the previous day and down 160 from October 27 [4] - Holdings: On November 26, it was 63030, down 5705 from the previous day and 8982 from October 27 [4] - Trading Volume: On November 26, it was 129096, up 15027 from the previous day and 15792 from October 27 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On November 26, it was 15380, up 2880 from the previous day and 3350 from October 27 [4] - Virtual - Real Ratio: On November 26, it was 20.49, down 7 from the previous day and 9 from October 27 [4] Basis and Spread - Cis - Butyl Basis: On November 26, it was 40, down 190 from the previous day and 40 from October 27 [4] - Butyl County Basis: On November 26, it was 490, down 190 from the previous day and 140 from October 27 [4] - 12 - 01 Spread: On November 26, it was - 30, unchanged from the previous day and October 27 [4] - 01 - 02 Spread: On November 26, it was 5, down 10 from the previous day and 15 from October 27 [4] - RU - BR Spread: On November 26, it was 4835, down 20 from the previous day and up 105 from October 27 [4] - NR - BR Spread: On November 26, it was 1805, down 75 from the previous day and up 5 from October 27 [4] Spot Prices and Profits - Shandong Market Price: On November 26, it was 10400, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from October 27 [4] - Transfar Market Price: On November 26, it was 10250, down 50 from the previous day and 200 from October 27 [4] - Qilu Factory Price: On November 26, it was 10400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from October 27 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: On November 26, it was 1325, unchanged from the previous day and down 55 from October 27 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: On November 26, it was 1600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from October 27 [4] - Spot Processing Profit: On November 26, it was 831, down 177 from the previous day and up 121 from October 27 [4] - Import Profit: On November 26, it was - 712, down 100 from the previous day and up 43 from October 27 [4] - Export Profit: On November 26, it was 1642, up 87 from the previous day and down 152 from October 27 [4] Key Information on BD Spot Prices - Shandong Market Price: On November 26, it was 7225, up 75 from the previous day and down 315 from October 27 [4] - Jiangsu Market Price: On November 26, it was 7025, up 75 from the previous day and down 275 from October 27 [4] - Yangzi Factory Price: On November 26, it was 7100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from October 27 [4] - CFR China: On November 26, it was 820, up 20 from the previous day and 50 from October 27 [4] Profits - Ethylene Cracking Profit: Data for November 26 was not available [4] - C4 Extraction Profit: Data for November 26 was not available [4] - Butylene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit: On November 26, it was - 1789, up 75 from the previous day and down 275 from October 27 [4] - Import Profit: On November 26, it was 310, down 85 from the previous day and 652 from October 27 [4] - Export Profit: On November 26, it was - 1302, down from the previous day and 1060 from October 27 [4] - Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit: On November 26, it was 1363, up 50 from the previous day and down 38 from October 27 [4] - ABS Production Profit: On November 26, it was - 359, down 58 from the previous day [4] - SBS Production Profit: On November 26, it was - 302, up 40 from the previous day and 82 from October 27 [4] Data Source - Mysteel, Wind [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has recovered, with sufficient overall supply. The downstream continues to purchase at low prices, putting pressure on the negotiation focus of the spot market. Some industry players expect a reduction in the mainstream supply price. Before the National Day holiday, downstream demand for stockpiling is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels [8] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - Market review: The price of the cis - butadiene rubber market in Shandong, China, fluctuated weakly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's main sales companies were reduced by 200 yuan/ton in total. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Affected by downstream low - price purchases, the negotiation focus of the spot market is under pressure. Some industry players expect a price cut. The inventories of enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased slightly. Before the National Day holiday, downstream stockpiling demand is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fell by 1.08% this week [12] - As of September 19, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 70 [18] - As of September 19, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week [21] - **Spot Market** - As of September 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of September 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of September 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 599.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.56 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [28] - As of September 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from last week [31] - **Production and Profit of Cis - Butadiene Rubber** - In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month [34] - As of September 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.56% from last week [34] - As of September 18, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan/ton from last week [37] - **Inventory** - As of September 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,720 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [41] - As of September 19, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons from last week [41] - **Downstream** - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. Most tire enterprises maintained last week's production level, and some enterprises still faced shortages. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders were in the concentrated production period, which supported the overall operation [44] - In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Recently, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. The previously shut - down devices have not yet resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Next week, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the cautious sentiment of downstream and the production and sales pressure of downstream, the purchase in the market may be cautious, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly this week. Some large semi - steel tire enterprises had about a week of maintenance arrangements, which dragged down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The shutdown sample enterprises of all - steel tires resumed work, and the current device production schedule has returned to the level before the shutdown, driving up the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. As the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, there is still a small room for the capacity utilization rate to increase, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, which will drag down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - The short - term of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cost supports supply price; previous shutdown devices not fully recovered; inventory declining; next week some devices to restart, supply to increase; downstream purchase cautious, finished product inventory to rise; tire capacity utilization rate with small fluctuations, overall order average, production control to continue [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided except for the topic of "Position Analysis of the Top 20 Holders of Cis - Butadiene Rubber" [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 15, the spread between September and October of butadiene rubber was - 5 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of August 15, the warehouse receipt of cis - butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, an increase of 0 tons compared with last week [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 14, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,1800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, the basis of butadiene rubber was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3.2.3 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 14, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 571 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 825 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, an increase of 0.33% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with last week [31] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month; as of August 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 3.65% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 14, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 30,440 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 23,450 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,990 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%; from January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [48]