投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节后累库成交乏力，BR震荡偏弱运行 行情回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-3-2 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节后累库成交乏力，B R震荡偏弱运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 12 15 1 27% 76 25 3 28 -0 35% 81 74 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 ...

7200 ono 500 2000 400 1500 300 AM 1000 200 500 100 0 -100 8/1 7/1 10/1 \ 111 12/1-h 5/1 9/1 -500 -200 -1000 -300 -1500 -400 2023 -2025 -2023 -2024 2024 - 2025 -2026 2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 9/1/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 -2021 -2022 2025 =2023 -2024 ·2026 -2021 -2022 ·2026 -2023 2024 2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 9/1 5/1 10/1 3/1 4/1 8/1 12/1 6/1 AN / ...

l js 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/2/26 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 1/27 | 2/13 | 2/24 | 2/25 | 2/25 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 13045 | 12505 | 13140 | 13045 | 13045 | 0 | 540 | | | | 持つ量 | 79495 | 14990 | 14886 | 10540 | 10540 | 0 | -4450 | | | 需可 | 成交量 | 749819 | 152173 | 106030 | 98487 | 98487 | 0 | -53686 | | | | 仓単数量 | 28120 | 39310 | 39870 | 39870 | 39870 | 0 | 560 | | | | 虚实比 | 14.13 | 1.91 | 1.87 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 0 | -1 | | | | 顺丁基差 | -245 | -22 | -340 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 3, 2026 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On February 2, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,900, a daily decrease of 490 and a weekly decrease of 145; the position was 39,702, a daily decrease of 13,679 and a weekly decrease of 39,793; the trading volume was 437,309, a daily decrease of 235,411 and a weekly decrease of 312,510; the warrant quantity was 28,310, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly increase of 190; the long - short ratio was 7.01, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 7 [4]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 300, a daily increase of 390 and a weekly increase of 145; the 02 - 03 spread was - 105, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 65; the 03 - 04 spread was - 35, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly decrease of 50; the RU - BR spread was 3080, a daily increase of 110 and a weekly decrease of 80; the NR - BR spread was 25, a daily increase of 180 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4]. - **Spot Price Data**: The Shandong market price was 12,750, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 50; the Transfar market price was 12,700, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 50; the Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Northeast Asia was 1625, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 75; CFR Southeast Asia was 1825, a daily increase of 40 and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was - 211, a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly increase of 154; the import profit was - 497, a daily decrease of 780 and a weekly decrease of 619; the export profit was 944, a daily increase of 444 and a weekly increase of 546 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price Data**: The Shandong market price was 10,550, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200; the Jiangsu market price was 10,400, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 300; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,500, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 300; CFR China was 1270, with a weekly increase of 20 [4]. - **Profit Data**: The ethylene cracking profit data was incomplete, with the last available data on January 30 at - 29; the carbon four extraction profit data was incomplete; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1740, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 370; the import profit was 285, a daily decrease of 193 and a weekly decrease of 442; the export profit was - 866, a daily increase of 168 [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 663, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 388; the ABS production profit data was incomplete; the SBS production profit was - 1105, a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 165 [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report date: January 28, 2026 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Analysis Futures Market - On January 27, the closing price of the BR main contract was 13,045, a daily decrease of 220 and a weekly increase of 1,130 [4] - The open interest was 79,495, a daily decrease of 12,159 and a weekly decrease of 14,231 [4] - The trading volume was 749,819, a daily increase of 2,350 and a weekly increase of 621,761 [4] Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity was 28,120, a daily increase of 600 and a weekly increase of 2,490 [4] - The long - short ratio was 14.13, a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4] Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -145, a daily increase of 220 and a weekly increase of 120 [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 155, a daily increase of 220 and a weekly increase of 70 [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was -40, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 15 [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was 15, a daily decrease of 25 [4] Price and Profit - The RU - BR spread was 3,160, a daily increase of 195 and a weekly decrease of 670 [4] - The NR - BR spread was 40, a daily increase of 220 and a weekly decrease of 660 [4] - The Shandong market price was 12,900, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,250 [4] - The Transfar market price was 12,900, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,300 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,300 [4] - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,550, with no daily or weekly change [4] - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,750, with no daily or weekly change [4] - The spot processing profit was -265, a daily increase of 306 and a weekly increase of 179 [4] - The import profit was 222, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly increase of 1,269 [4] - The export profit was 310, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 1,105 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Analysis Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 10,750, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly increase of 1,050 [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,700, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly increase of 1,150 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,200 [4] - The CFR China price was 1,270, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 90 [4] Profit - The ethylene cracking profit data was unavailable [4] - The carbon four extraction profit was 3,794 (data for January 26, subsequent data unavailable) [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 2,160, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 1,200 [4] - The import profit was 570, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly increase of 457 [4] - The export profit was -1,670, a daily increase of 303 [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 275, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 63 [4] - The ABS production profit data was unavailable [4] - The SBS production profit was -1,270, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 215 [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources: Mysteel, Wind [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [3] - Data Source: Mysteel, Wind [8] Key Points 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on January 26 was 13,265, with a daily increase of 335 and a weekly increase of 1,680 [4]. - The open interest on January 26 was 91,654, a daily decrease of 35,722 and a weekly increase of 652 [4]. - The trading volume on January 26 was 747,469, a daily increase of 390,791 and a weekly increase of 641,385 [4]. - The warrant quantity on January 26 was 27,520, a daily increase of 600 and a weekly increase of 3,190 [4]. - The long - short ratio on January 26 was 16.65, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 2 [4]. Basis, Spread, and Inter - variety Spread - The butadiene rubber basis on January 26 was - 365, a daily decrease of 135 and a weekly decrease of 330 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis on January 26 was - 65, a daily change of 0 and a weekly decrease of 380 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread on January 26 was - 100, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 45 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread on January 26 was 40, a daily increase of 70 and a weekly increase of 80 [4]. - The RU - BR spread on January 26 was 2,962, a daily decrease of 420 and a weekly decrease of 1,070 [4]. - The NR - BR spread on January 26 was - 180, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly decrease of 1,145 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 26 was 12,900, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 1,350 [4]. - The Transfar market price on January 26 was 12,900, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 1,450 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on January 26 was 12,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,000 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,550 on January 26, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1,750 on January 26, with no daily or weekly change [4]. Profit Situation - The spot processing profit on January 26 was - 571, a daily increase of 149 and a weekly decrease of 231 [4]. - The import profit on January 26 was 206, a daily increase of 219 and a weekly increase of 1,346 [4]. - The export profit on January 26 was 325, a daily decrease of 191 and a weekly decrease of 1,171 [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 26 was 11,050, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 1,250 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on January 26 was 10,900, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 1,600 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on January 26 was 10,800, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 1,400 [4]. - The CFR China price on January 26 was 1,250, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 70 [4]. Profit Situation - The carbon - four extraction profit was 3,228 (data for January 23, subsequent data is N/A) [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 26 was 2,310, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 1,600 [4]. - The import profit on January 26 was 914, a daily decrease of 179 and a weekly increase of 1,046 [4]. - The export profit data has many N/A values and cannot be accurately summarized. 3. Other Product Production Profits - The styrene - butadiene production profit on January 26 was 275, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 275 [4]. - The ABS production profit data has many N/A values and cannot be accurately summarized. - The SBS production profit on January 26 was - 1,270, a daily increase of 190 and a weekly decrease of 730 [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Report Core Content BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on January 22 was 12,270, with a daily increase of 355 and a weekly increase of 455 compared to January 16 [4]. - The open interest on January 22 was 96,682, with a daily increase of 2,956 and a weekly increase of 1,035 [4]. - The trading volume on January 22 was 182,757, with a daily increase of 54,699 and a weekly increase of 19,636 [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity on January 22 was 26,920, with a daily increase of 1,290 and a weekly increase of 590 [4]. - The long - short ratio on January 22 was 17.96 [4]. Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber on January 22 was - 420, with a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 322 [4]. - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber on January 22 was - 70, with a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 505 [4]. - The spread between 02 - 03 contracts on January 22 was - 80, with a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4]. - The spread between 03 - 04 contracts on January 22 was - 20, with a daily increase of 20 and no weekly change [4]. - The spread between RU - BR on January 22 was 3,580, with a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 440 [4]. - The spread between NR - BR on January 22 was 465, with a daily decrease of 235 and a weekly decrease of 465 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 22 was 11,850, with a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The Transfar market price on January 22 was 11,850, with a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on January 22 was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on January 22 was 1,220, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on January 22 was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit on January 22 was - 601, with a daily decrease of 157 and a weekly decrease of 232 [4]. - The import profit on January 22 was - 845, with a daily increase of 202 and a weekly decrease of 682 [4]. - The export profit on January 22 was 1,240, with a daily decrease of 176 and a weekly increase of 430 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 22 was 10,050, with a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 325 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on January 22 was 9,850, with a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on January 22 was 9,600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - The CFR China price on January 22 was 1,180, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 40 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit data was unavailable [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit on January 21 was 2,712 (data for January 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 21 was 960 (data for January 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The import profit on January 22 was 414, with a daily increase of 301 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4]. - The export profit on January 22 was - 1,059, with a daily decrease of 88 and a weekly increase of 1,547 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on January 20 was 338 (data for January 21 and 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The ABS production profit data was mostly unavailable [4]. - The SBS production profit on January 20 was - 755 (data for January 21 and 22 was unavailable) [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: January 21, 2026 [3] Report Core Content 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On January 20, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,585, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 665 [4]. - The open interest was 91,002, a daily decrease of 3,182 and a weekly decrease of 9,574 [4]. - The trading volume was 106,084, a daily decrease of 8,713 and a weekly decrease of 70,947 [4]. - The warrant quantity was 24,330, a daily decrease of 1,700 and a weekly decrease of 2,000 [4]. - The long - short ratio was 18.70, with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 0 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -32, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 215 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 315, a daily decrease of 180 and a weekly increase of 315 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was -25, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -40, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,035, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly increase of 125 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,050, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,550, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 450 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 11,450, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 500 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 400 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,550, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit was -340, a daily decrease of 99 and a weekly decrease of 144 [4]. - The import profit was -1,140, a daily decrease of 144 and a weekly decrease of 1,208 [4]. - The export profit was 1,496, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 886 [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 300 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 350 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,550, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - The CFR China price was 1,180, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was -23 on January 19, and data for January 20 was not available [4]. - The C4 extraction profit was 2,742 on January 19, and data for January 20 was not available [4]. - The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 710, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 280 [4]. - The import profit was -132, a daily decrease of 96 and a weekly decrease of 919 [4]. - The export profit was -758, a daily increase of 223 and a weekly increase of 1,926 [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 438, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 250 [4]. - The ABS production profit data after January 17 was not available [4]. - The SBS production profit was -645, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 60 [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report date: January 20, 2026 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - Closing price of BR main contract on January 19: 11,605, with a daily change of -210 and an interval change of -395 [4] - Open interest on January 19: 94,184, with a daily change of -1,463 and an interval change of -1,134 [4] - Trading volume on January 19: 114,797, with a daily change of -48,324 and an interval change of -15,374 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 19: 26,030, with a daily change of -300 and an interval change of -300 [4] - Long - short ratio on January 19: 18.09, with no daily or interval change [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - Butadiene rubber basis on January 19: 160, with a daily change of 160 and an interval change of 195 [4] - Styrene - butadiene rubber basis on January 19: 495, with a daily change of 60 and an interval change of 345 [4] - 02 - 03 spread on January 19: 5, with a daily change of 5 and an interval change of 10 [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 19: -30, with a daily change of -10 and an interval change of -10 [4] - RU - BR spread on January 19: 4,140, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of 165 [4] - NR - BR spread on January 19: 1,050, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of 210 [4] Spot - Shandong market price on January 19: 11,700, with a daily change of -50 and an interval change of -200 [4] - Transfar market price on January 19: 11,550, with a daily change of -150 and an interval change of -300 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 19: 11,700, with a daily change of -200 and an interval change of -400 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on January 19: 1,550, with a daily change of 100 and an interval change of 100 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on January 19: 1,750, with a daily change of 75 and an interval change of 75 [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on January 19: -241, with a daily change of 129 and an interval change of -226 [4] - Import profit on January 19: -996, with a daily change of -832 and an interval change of -969 [4] - Export profit on January 19: 1,371, with a daily change of 561 and an interval change of 679 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on January 19: 9,550, with a daily change of -175 and an interval change of 25 [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 19: 9,400, with a daily change of -150 and an interval change of 75 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 19: 9,550, with no daily change and an interval change of 350 [4] - CFR China on January 19: 1,180, with a daily change of 20 and an interval change of 75 [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4] - Butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 19: 810, with a daily change of -80 and an interval change of 145 [4] - Import profit on January 19: -36, with a daily change of -304 and an interval change of -502 [4] - Export profit on January 19: -981, with a daily change of 371 and an interval change of 1,772 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 19: 663, with no daily change and an interval change of -288 [4] - ABS production profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4] - SBS production profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: The report gives a rating of "oscillating" for the short - term investment in the synthetic rubber industry, and "long - term bullish" for the long - term [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of butadiene are strong, while the "high - start, high - inventory" situation of butadiene rubber continues. The number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased, and the recent futures volume and price have increased simultaneously. In the short term, the large increase in BR, combined with risk premiums, will lead to a phased adjustment of the futures market. In December, the export volume of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to increase, and the import volume of butadiene will decrease month - on - month. With long - term positive expectations, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to have further upward space [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During this period, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber remained high, and most brand spot resources were sufficient. The pressure on the supply side affected the upward movement of the negotiation center. The mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber increased slightly during the week, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. Traders actively tried to raise prices, but the downstream terminal procurement was negative and the price - pressing was firm. Although the spot price center gradually moved up, the transaction performance was poor [6]. 3.2 Impact Factors 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [missing data] tons (72%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.37%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [missing data] tons (68%), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. In terms of butadiene, Fujian United Petrochemical (180,000 tons) restarted on the 15th, and Hainan Refining & Chemical (130,000 tons) is expected to shut down at the end of the month. The butadiene production is expected to maintain a downward trend. In terms of butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the loads of other butadiene rubber plants are at a high level. The butadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to restart at the end of the month, and the supply will continue to be sufficient [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the market sales became increasingly sluggish, the terminal demand weakened, the channel transactions were sporadic, and the replenishment willingness continued to decrease. The factories launched a certain range of promotions this month, but the market has not yet had a clear guidance. For all - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the stocking willingness was low. Some merchants rushed to complete the annual task volume last month, and the inventory expanded significantly, weakening the ability to continuously purchase. Although some factories have clearly announced the profit - sharing policy for January, the inventory during the period is large, and the existing inventory is mainly digested. Some replenishment willingness is postponed to the middle or late ten days of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.99%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.50%. In terms of butadiene, although the high - price transactions of refineries were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed. Although the market is expected to be strong in the later period, it is in the inventory reduction cycle. In terms of butadiene rubber, the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts have increased significantly [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 365 yuan/ton, in East China is - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 215 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR is 4,020 yuan/ton (12%); the spread between NR - BR is 930 yuan/ton (- 0.53%); the price ratio of BR - SC is - 0.35% [4]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation is 990 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction is 2,680.31 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 237 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.92% [4]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a national - scale network control, which is related to continuous protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers has fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately leave a long position, and be vigilant against the risk of capital profit - taking and callback. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to watch: downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitics [4]