jis 加安期货 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/2/25 | 品种 | | 类别 | 指标 | 1/26 | 2/11 | 2/12 | 2/13 | 2/24 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 13265 | 13020 | 12715 | 12505 | 13140 | 635 | 120 | | | | | 持つ量 | 91654 | 24037 | 21758 | 14990 | 14886 | -104 | -9151 | | | | STIT | 成交量 | 747469 | 198743 | 127485 | 152173 | 106030 | -46143 | -92713 | | | | | 仓単数量 | 27520 | 36910 | 36910 | 39310 | 39870 | 560 | 2960 | | | | | 虚实比 | 16.65 | 3.26 | 2.95 | 1.91 | 1.87 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Report Core Content BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on January 22 was 12,270, with a daily increase of 355 and a weekly increase of 455 compared to January 16 [4]. - The open interest on January 22 was 96,682, with a daily increase of 2,956 and a weekly increase of 1,035 [4]. - The trading volume on January 22 was 182,757, with a daily increase of 54,699 and a weekly increase of 19,636 [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity on January 22 was 26,920, with a daily increase of 1,290 and a weekly increase of 590 [4]. - The long - short ratio on January 22 was 17.96 [4]. Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber on January 22 was - 420, with a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 322 [4]. - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber on January 22 was - 70, with a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 505 [4]. - The spread between 02 - 03 contracts on January 22 was - 80, with a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4]. - The spread between 03 - 04 contracts on January 22 was - 20, with a daily increase of 20 and no weekly change [4]. - The spread between RU - BR on January 22 was 3,580, with a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 440 [4]. - The spread between NR - BR on January 22 was 465, with a daily decrease of 235 and a weekly decrease of 465 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 22 was 11,850, with a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The Transfar market price on January 22 was 11,850, with a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on January 22 was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on January 22 was 1,220, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on January 22 was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit on January 22 was - 601, with a daily decrease of 157 and a weekly decrease of 232 [4]. - The import profit on January 22 was - 845, with a daily increase of 202 and a weekly decrease of 682 [4]. - The export profit on January 22 was 1,240, with a daily decrease of 176 and a weekly increase of 430 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 22 was 10,050, with a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 325 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on January 22 was 9,850, with a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on January 22 was 9,600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - The CFR China price on January 22 was 1,180, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 40 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit data was unavailable [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit on January 21 was 2,712 (data for January 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 21 was 960 (data for January 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The import profit on January 22 was 414, with a daily increase of 301 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4]. - The export profit on January 22 was - 1,059, with a daily decrease of 88 and a weekly increase of 1,547 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on January 20 was 338 (data for January 21 and 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The ABS production profit data was mostly unavailable [4]. - The SBS production profit on January 20 was - 755 (data for January 21 and 22 was unavailable) [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Core Views - For methanol, with the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Some plants are shutting down or planning production cuts, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran stabilizes. Methanol has difficulty moving up or down, and the MTO profit caps the upside. Unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [1]. - For plastics, the market shows a volatile trend in the futures, stable spot prices, and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply is expected to be moderately pressured [2]. - For PP, the market is stable in the futures, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has slightly declined. The supply is expected to be moderately pressured in the 05 and subsequent periods [3]. - For PVC, the basis is improving, and the trading volume is average this week. The overall inventory is moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short - term, the seasonal production resumes, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: The price of动力煤期货remains unchanged at 801, and the西北 - folded price has a daily change of -25 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: Iran's conflict continues to ferment. Some MTO plants are shutting down or reducing production, waiting for the normal situation in Iran to restart. The MTO profit restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [1]. Plastics - **Price Data**: The price of东北亚乙烯has a daily change of -30, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -28. The two - oil inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are decreasing [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The futures market is volatile, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The oil - based and coal - based profits are deteriorating, and the social inventory is increasing [2]. PP - **Price Data**: The price of山东丙烯remains unchanged, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -14. The basis is stable [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The futures market is stable, the basis is weak, and the import and export profits are negative. The supply is temporarily stable in January, and the inventory is moderately high [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: The price of西北电石remains unchanged, and the主力 futures price has a daily change of -30. The basis has a daily change of +30 [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The basis is improving, the trading volume is average, and the overall inventory is moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR Futures Data - BR主力合约收盘价: 1月15日为12190元，日度变化 -60元，周度变化175元 [4] - 持仓量: 1月15日为99183手，日度变化 -1393手，周度变化72844手 [4] - 需求量: 1月15日为150035，日度变化 -26996，周度变化48814 [4] - 成交量: 12月17日为181436 [4] - 仓单数量: 1月15日为26330，日度变化0，周度变化2000 [4] - 虚实比: 1月15日为18.83，日度变化0，周度变化13 [4] - 顺丁基差: 1月15日为 -190，日度变化60，周度变化 -125 [4] - 丁苯基差: 1月15日为110，日度变化110，周度变化 -75 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data - 02 - 03月差: 1月15日为 -60，日度变化 -30，周度变化 -10 [4] - 03 - 04月差: 1月15日为 -35，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -12 [4] - RU - BR价差: 1月15日为3805，日度变化 -105，周度变化 -210 [4] - NR - BR价差: 1月15日为660，日度变化 -105，周度变化 -275 [4] Spot Price Data - 山东市场价: 1月15日为12000元，日度变化0，周度变化50元 [4] - 传化市场价: 1月15日为11950元，日度变化0，周度变化50元 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 1月15日为12100元，日度变化0，周度变化200元 [4] - CFR东北亚: 1月15日为1450美元，日度变化0，周度变化35美元 [4] - CFR东南亚: 1月15日为1675美元，日度变化0，周度变化40美元 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润: 1月15日为 -273元，日度变化 -77元，周度变化 -384元 [4] - 进口利润: 1月15日为75元，日度变化7元，周度变化 -211元 [4] - 出口利润: 1月15日为603元，日度变化 -7元，周度变化222元 [4] Other Spot and Profit Data - 山东市场价（另一品种）: 1月15日为9875元，日度变化75元，周度变化425元 [4] - 江苏市场价: 1月15日为9650元，日度变化0，周度变化400元 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 1月15日为9550元，日度变化0，周度变化450元 [4] - CFR中国: 1月13日为1140美元 [4] - 乙烯裂解利润: 1月15日为 -33元，日度变化3元，周度变化9元 [4] - 碳四抽提利润: 1月14日为2648元 [4] - 进口利润（另一品种）: 1月13日为190元 [4] - 出口利润（另一品种）: 1月15日为 -1188元，日度变化240元，周度变化1493元 [4] - 丁苯生产利润: 1月15日为663元，日度变化 -25元，周度变化 -225元 [4] - ABS生产利润: 1月15日为 -871元，日度变化0，周度变化 -28元 [4] - SBS生产利润: 1月15日为 -215元，日度变化 -30元，周度变化 -220元 [4]

Group 1: Methanol - The domestic methanol market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operating rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which suppresses the upside potential of methanol. [2] - Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may open up the upside potential. [2] Group 2: Plastics - The futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with the North China - East China price difference at -80, a decrease of 30, and the South China - East China price difference at 50, an increase of 50. [4] - Crude oil prices are oscillating. Oil - based production profits are deteriorating, and coal - based production profits are also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. [4] - Upstream coal chemical industry is reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventory has increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the neutral level year - on - year. [4] - From the supply side, the supply growth rate of standard products is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, and there are few maintenance plans in January. The full - density production has recovered. Looking at the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is neutral, and the supply - demand balance sheet for LL still faces significant pressure. [4] Group 3: PP - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The East China basis is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly month - on - month. [6] - In the domestic regional price difference, the North China - East China price difference is -70, an increase of 35, and the South China - East China price difference is 100, a decrease of 30. [6] - In terms of upstream profits, oil - based production profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230 compared to the previous period, and the PHD operating rate has remained stable this week. Downstream BOPP and plastic weaving profits have improved. [6] - On the supply side, the number of temporary maintenance plans has increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Downstream buyers have replenished inventory at low prices for the holiday. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while the coal chemical industry and social inventory are increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a neutral level. Looking at the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than neutral. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation. [6] Group 4: PVC - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for the ethylene method is 575, and for the calcium carbide method is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. [8] - Coal prices are 600, unchanged from the previous period, and semi - coke prices are 820, also unchanged. Semi - coke profits are poor, and calcium carbide profits are also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry with purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The calcium carbide - ethylene price is stable. [8] - Upstream production has remained stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous period. This week, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of the ethylene method is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. [8] - Upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period. PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons, and in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly higher than neutral, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. [8] - Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, seasonal production has recovered. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, export volume this year is relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. Comprehensively, the medium - and long - term outlook for PVC is still poor. [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO开工. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. There are expected to be 2 - 3 Venezuelan ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The upside of methanol is limited because other downstream sectors are weak, but if oil prices boost other sectors, the upside may be unlocked [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina (two - oil) is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so focus on the commissioning of new plants [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are reducing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventories of mid - and upstream are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of high - grade caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 801 | 2210 | 2193 | 2345 | 2450 | 2315 | 2430 | 258 | 320 | 1 | - 25 | - | | 2026/01/05 | 801 | 2233 | 2205 | 2350 | - | 2315 | 2448 | 258 | 320 | 25 | - 2 | - | | 2026/01/06 | 801 | 2275 | 2248 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2450 | 266 | 322 | 22 | 10 | - | | 2026/01/07 | 801 | 2285 | 2250 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2443 | 268 | 322 | 8 | 0 | - | | 2026/01/08 | 801 | 2230 | 2220 | 2340 | - | 2345 | 2448 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | |日度变化| 0 | - 55 | - 30 | - 10 | - | 0 | 5 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 745 | 6300 | 6575 | 8325 | 6850 | 740 | 786 | 231 | 6472 | - 170 | 63 | 11353 | | 2026/01/05 | 745 | 6300 | 6625 | 8700 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 281 | 6449 | - 180 | - | 11350 | | 2026/01/06 | 745 | 6400 | 6625 | 8775 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 285 | 6579 | - 160 | - | 11324 | | 2026/01/07 | 745 | 6480 | 6625 | 8800 | 6900 | 765 | 786 | 68 | 6642 | - 160 | - | 11540 | | 2026/01/08 | - | 6480 | 6700 | 8925 | 6950 | - | - | - | 6628 | - 160 | - | 11365 | |日度变化| - | 0 | 75 | 125 | 50 | - | - | - | - 14 | 0 | - | - 175 | [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 5680 | 710 | 6140 | 6110 | 6060 | 6394 | 765 | 820 | - 9 | 6348 | - 200 | 63 | 15445 | | 2026/01/05 | 5730 | 710 | 6210 | 6165 | 6120 | 6460 | 765 | 830 | - 16 | 6330 | - 150 | - | 15445 | | 2026/01/06 | 5770 | 710 | 6180 | 6185 | 6120 | 6506 | 765 | 830 | - 19 | 6423 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/07 | 5770 | 710 | 6240 | 6230 | 6180 | 6534 | 770 | - | - | 6486 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/08 | 5800 | 710 | 6315 | 6283 | 6250 | 6534 | - | - | - | 6484 | - 200 | - | 15465 | |日度变化| 30 | 0 | 75 | 53 | 70 | 0 | - | - | - | - 2 | 0 | - | 0 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 2300 | 717 | 4600 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 126 | - | - | - 260 | | 2026/01/05 | 2300 | 715 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 139 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/06 | 2300 | 715 | 4660 | - | - | 4230 | 640 | 69 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/07 | 2350 | 715 | 4730 | - | - | 4330 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/08 | 2400 | 715 | 4710 | - | - | 4350 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | |日度变化| 50 | 0 | - 20 | - | - | 20 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [3] Report Content BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On December 16, the BR main contract (12) was at 10,930, up 85 from the previous day and 355 for the week [4]. - Open interest reached 101,056, an increase of 3,013 from the previous day and 20,510 for the week [4]. - Trading volume was 140,807, a decrease of 69,256 from the previous day but an increase of 13,815 for the week [4]. - Warehouse receipt quantity remained at 19,180, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 160 for the week [4]. - The long - short ratio was 26.34, up 1 from the previous day and 5 for the week [4]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 180, down 85 from the previous day and 125 for the week [4]. - The butadiene basis was 270, down 85 from the previous day and 175 for the week [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was - 25, up 5 from the previous day and down 10 for the week [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was - 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 for the week [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,240, down 115 from the previous day and 370 for the week [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,455, down 60 from the previous day and 210 for the week [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 10,750, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 for the week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,650, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 for the week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,700, up 100 from the previous day and 100 for the week [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,350, up 25 from the previous day and 25 for the week [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and for the week [4]. Profit - Spot processing profit was 543, up 92 from the previous day but down 259 for the week [4]. - Import profit was - 503, down 199 from the previous day but up 26 for the week [4]. - Export profit was 1,280, unchanged from the previous day and down 199 for the week [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 7,850, down 90 from the previous day and up 450 for the week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 7,625 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,550, unchanged from the previous day and up 350 for the week [4]. - CFR China was 870, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 for the week [4]. Profit - Ethylene cracking profit was N/A [4]. - C4 extraction profit was N/A [4]. - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,259, up 375 [4]. - Import profit was 547, up 25 from the previous day and 311 for the week [4]. - Export profit was - 1,287, down 22 from the previous day and up 226 for the week [4]. Production Profit - Styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,288, up 100 from the previous day and down 163 for the week [4]. - ABS production profit was N/A [4]. - SBS production profit was - 465, unchanged from the previous day and down 45 for the week [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 15, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Data - Price: On December 12, it was 10720, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 205 [4] - Holdings: On December 12, it was 89834, with a daily change of 2844 and a weekly change of 62380 [4] - Trading Volume: On December 12, it was 123845, with a daily change of -31953 and a weekly change of 61026 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On December 12, it was 19180, with a daily change of -140 and a weekly change of 1860 [4] - Virtual - Real Ratio: On December 12, it was 23.42, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 15 [4] - Basis and Spread: Various basis and spread data such as cis - butyl basis, styrene - butadiene basis, etc. are provided with their daily and weekly changes [4] Group 3: BR Spot and Profit Data - Spot Price: Shandong market price was 10650 on December 12, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 weekly; different market and factory prices are presented with their changes [4] - Profit: Spot processing profit was 800 on December 12, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -54; import and export profits are also given with their changes [4] Group 4: BD Data - Spot Price: Different market and factory prices are presented with their changes [4] - Profit: Import and export profits, ethylene cracking profit, carbon four extraction profit, etc. are provided, some with incomplete data [4] Group 5: Production Profit Data - Production Profits: Data on butadiene - styrene production profit, ABS production profit, SBS production profit are given, some with incomplete data [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 10, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12): Price on 12/9 was 10,450, down 65 from the previous day and 125 from the previous week [4] - 持仓量: On 12/9, it was 76,409, up 48,955 from the previous day and 37,423 from the previous week [4] - 成交量: In Germany, on 12/9, it was 111,045, up 48,226 from the previous day and down 11,618 from the previous week [4] - 仓単数量: On 12/9, it was 17,320, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,870 from the previous week [4] - 虚实比: On 12/9, it was 22.06, up 14 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] Basis and Spread - 顺丁基差: On 12/9, it was 50, with a daily change not provided and up 125 from the previous week [4] - 丁本县差: On 12/9, it was 520, up 115 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01: On 12/9, it was 20, up 10 from the previous day and 85 from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02: On 12/9, it was -20, down 5 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR: On 12/9, it was 4,535, down 15 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR: On 12/9, it was 1,630, up 80 from the previous day and 120 from the previous week [4] Spot - 山东市场价: On 12/9, it was 10,500, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - 传化市场价: On 12/9, it was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: On 12/9, it was 10,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR东北亚: On 12/9, it was 1,325, up 25 from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR东南亚: On 12/9, it was 1,600, up 25 from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - 现货加工利润: On 12/9, it was 702, down 51 from the previous day and 179 from the previous week [4] - 进口利润: On 12/9, it was -579, down 190 from the previous day and 199 from the previous week [4] - 出口利润: On 12/9, it was 1,522, up 167 from the previous day and 176 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - 山东市场价: On 12/9, it was 7,250, down 50 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week [4] - 江苏市场价: On 12/9, it was 7,200, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4] - 扬子出厂价: On 12/9, it was 7,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4] - CFR中国: On 12/9, it was 860, unchanged from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week [4] Profit - 乙烯裂解利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - 碳四抽提利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润: On 12/9, it was -1,614, down 50 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [4] - 进口利润: On 12/9, it was 186, down 44 from the previous day and 369 from the previous week [4] - 出口利润: On 12/9, it was -975, up 39 from the previous day and 396 from the previous week [4] Production Profit - 丁苯生产利润: On 12/9, it was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 88 from the previous week [4] - ABS生产利润: Data for 12/9 was not available [4] - SBS生产利润: On 12/9, it was -420, unchanged from the previous day and down 85 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Data Source - Data sources include Mysteel and Wind [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the LPG industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices have fallen, the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil LPG price difference has narrowed. Warehouse receipts are 4561 lots (-54). Off - market paper prices have declined while the spread has strengthened, and the ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas has changed little. The domestic chemical sector is relatively strong and civil demand is increasing, but there is expected to be a large amount of arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Weather and oil prices also need attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Daily Changes (2025/11/21 compared to previous day) - Civil LPG: East China 4315 (-10), Shandong 4340 (-20), South China 4550 (+200). Ether - after carbon four 4530 (-40). The lowest delivery location is East China, with a basis of -43 (+0) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109. FEI is 491 (-10) and CP is 485 (-1) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Data and Changes - PG futures: Basis -43 (-57), 01 - 02 spread 109 (-19) [1] - Domestic civil LPG: The price has fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49) [1] - Warehouse receipts: 4561 lots (-54) [1] - Off - market paper: Prices have fallen, and the spread has strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas has changed little. PG - CP is 126 (-2); PG - FEI is 114 (+3). East China arrival, North American and AFEI offshore discounts are flat, and Middle Eastern goods are in short supply with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight has slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to -55 (+11) [1] - Profits and Operating Rates: Shandong PDH - to - propylene profit has slightly recovered; alkylation unit profit has slightly recovered but is still poor; MTBE production profit is volatile and export profit is still good. PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1] - Inventory: Arrivals have increased, external sales have decreased, factory warehouses have slightly accumulated, and port inventories have increased [1]