Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream is destocking, and the social inventory is flat. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The LD is weak. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and focus on the commissioning of new devices [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production arrangement is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. Pay attention to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2235 to 2253, the South China spot price increased from 2255 to 2250, the Lunan converted - to - futures price remained at 2505 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 3, the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480 on most days with a 5 - point increase on September 2, the Hebei converted - to - futures price decreased by 30 points on September 3, the Northwest converted - to - futures price increased from 2655 to 2658, the CFR China price remained at 259 on most days with a 1 - point increase on September 2, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322. The import profit increased from 1 to 16, the main contract basis increased from - 140 to - 135, and the MTO profit on the disk remained at - 1237 [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on most days. The North China LL price remained at 7170 on September 1 - 3 after a decline, the East China LL price decreased from 7350 to 7285, the East China LD price decreased from 9625 to 9600, the East China HD price decreased from 7550 to 7430, the LL US dollar price remained at 860, the LL US Gulf price remained at 840. The import profit decreased from - 150 to - 218, the main futures price decreased from 7358 to 7247, the basis decreased from - 140 to - 100, the two - oil inventory remained at 65, and the warehouse receipt remained at 8263 on September 2 - 3 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6550 on most days with a 30 - point increase on September 1. The Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP price decreased from 6920 to 6885, the North China PP price decreased from 6983 to 6928, the Shandong powder price decreased from 6830 to 6780, the East China copolymer price decreased from 7190 to 7140, the PP US dollar price remained at 860, the PP US Gulf price remained at 980. The export profit increased from - 22 to - 14, the main futures price decreased from 7020 to 6954, the basis remained at - 90 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 1, the two - oil inventory decreased from 67 to 65, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 14055 to 13802 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300 on September 1. The Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 on September 1. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased from 4780 to 4760, the ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in South China remained at 5450, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in the Northwest decreased from 4500 to 4470 on September 2. The import US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710, the export profit increased from 481 to 523, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356, the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [8].

Report Title - Benzene Ethylene Weekly Report: EB: Supply-demand margin weakens, inventory stops falling, focus on raw material resonance opportunities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although there is a strong expectation of OPEC+ production increase, the macro - environment is stable, and the peak season boosts, so oil prices maintain a volatile trend. On the pure benzene side, both domestic supply and demand increase, but supply increases more than demand. Due to the non - opening of the America - Asia arbitrage window and the successive return of maintenance devices in Japan and South Korea, high imports are expected to continue. The destocking of pure benzene port inventory is difficult, with relatively large year - on - year pressure, which drags down the styrene price. For styrene, weekly supply increases while demand decreases. Some upstream devices will resume production in June, and some downstream sectors enter the off - season. There are pressures in terms of profit and inventory on the 3S side, so it is difficult to effectively drive the styrene price. Styrene inventory stops falling and accumulates this week, and is expected to enter a volatile stage, mainly focusing on the absolute year - on - year level. Currently, the estimated valuation of styrene is still high. Considering the fundamentals of pure benzene, the valuation regression probably requires a downward correction of styrene. Therefore, maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, pay attention to raw material resonance opportunities in terms of rhythm, and be vigilant against macro risks [3] Strategy Recommendations Futures Strategy - Maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near - month contract at 7400 [4] Option Strategy - Sell EB2507 - C - 7500 [4] Summary by Directory Pure Benzene 2025 Production and Investment Plan - Multiple companies in different provinces have plans for pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong has a 100 - million - ton pure benzene production plan from 2024Q4 - 2025 and a 50 - million - ton styrene production plan in 2025Q1 [6] 2025 May - July Device Dynamics - Many companies' devices have maintenance plans from May to July 2025, such as Hubei Jin'ao's device, which stopped for maintenance on March 11 and is expected to restart in mid - May [8] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - From May to July 2025, the planned new pure benzene production capacity is about 1.33 million tons/year, and the downstream new production capacity is about 400,000 tons/year. The planned pure benzene shutdown involves a production capacity of 4.46 million tons/year, and the downstream shutdown production capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. The net supply reduction is about 239,000 tons, and the net demand reduction is about 341,000 tons. Overall, inventory is expected to accumulate [9] Price and Profit - The prices of pure benzene in different regions and the price differences between different regions are presented in the report. The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low [15] Downstream Situation - The weighted downstream operating rate of pure benzene has recently declined slightly. The styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43] Styrene and Its Downstream Spot and Futures - The spot price, basis, and monthly spread of styrene are presented in the report [53] Supply - The monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit of styrene are shown. Asia has multiple styrene device exits, and China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70] Inventory - Styrene port inventory has stopped falling and continued to accumulate [71] Downstream Situation - The 3S production capacity growth rate is high, intensifying industry competition. The estimated weekly styrene consumption converted from 3S production has decreased. The downstream prices have weakened, and the profits are under pressure. The high - production inventory is higher year - on - year, indicating possible demand transmission resistance. After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand should focus on subsidy stimulation [76][81][92]