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大越期货国债期货早报-20250604
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 3, the bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising slightly, and most treasury bond futures closing down. The inter - bank market funds were balanced and loose, and the weighted average interest rates of major repurchase transactions declined. The Sino - US tariff war is a long - term process, and short - term changes are unlikely to significantly affect bond market expectations. Domestic factors such as this month's liquidity, certificate of deposit rates, and government bond supply need to be monitored [3]. - The 5 - month manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. In April, government bond issuance helped the growth rate of social financing scale continue to accelerate, and the central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements. After the shock of the suspension of the tariff war was quickly released and the reserve requirement and interest rate cuts were implemented, the funds remained loose. With the central bank's continued use of quantitative tools, the bond market's continuous adjustment momentum remains [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The T2509 contract had a closing price of 108.685, a decline of 0.03%, a trading volume of 96,000, an open interest of 285,750, and a daily decrease of 1,142 positions. The TF2509 contract had a closing price of 105.960, a decline of 0.04%, a trading volume of 79,600, an open interest of 219,680, and a daily increase of 5,684 positions. The TS2509 contract had a closing price of 102.352, a decline of 0.04%, a trading volume of 54,900, an open interest of 171,028, and a daily increase of 5,667 positions. The TL2509 contract had a closing price of 119.45, an increase of 0.03%, a trading volume of 96,300, an open interest of 148,128, and a daily decrease of 780 positions [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - On June 3, the People's Bank of China conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 375.5 billion yuan [3]. 3. Basis Analysis - The basis of the TS main contract was - 0.0741, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The basis of the TF main contract was - 0.0175, also indicating a discount of the spot to the futures, which was bearish. The basis of the T main contract was 0.0230, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish. The basis of the TL main contract was 0.41130, indicating a premium of the spot to the futures, which was bullish [3]. 4. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4]. 5. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all trading above their 20 - day moving averages, and the 20 - day moving averages were all upward, which was bullish [4]. 6. Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5].