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下一个“黑天鹅”会是11月5日吗?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-04 10:39
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could significantly reshape presidential power and economic policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Legal Basis and Implications - The core of the judicial confrontation revolves around the Trump administration's invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) from 1977, which grants the president broad powers in response to a "national emergency" [2] - The tariffs implemented on April 2 have raised the effective tariff rate on consumer goods in the U.S. to 17.9%, the highest level since 1934 [2] Group 2: Government's Position - The White House expresses confidence in the legality of the tariffs, with trade advisor Peter Navarro providing three main arguments: trade deficits represent an "unusual and extraordinary" external threat, the IEEPA does not explicitly exclude tariffs as a "emergency" tool, and these tariffs will undergo periodic congressional review [3] Group 3: Legal Community's Perspective - The mainstream legal opinion, including many conservative scholars, argues that the government's legal basis is weak, with a high likelihood of losing the case, primarily based on the "major-questions doctrine" which requires explicit congressional or constitutional authorization for significant economic and political actions [4][5] Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Consequences - The outcome of the Supreme Court case is viewed as a "Damocles sword" over Wall Street, with potential for two drastically different futures depending on the ruling [6] - If the tariffs are deemed illegal, the White House may need to refund billions in tariffs, impacting fiscal policy, and the unilateral economic strategy of the Trump administration could be fundamentally undermined [7] - Conversely, a ruling in favor of the Trump administration would greatly expand presidential power, allowing for unilateral economic decisions without congressional approval, potentially leading to market volatility if negative economic indicators coincide with a loss [9]
应对美方“威胁” 马杜罗拟宣布紧急状态
Xin Hua She· 2025-09-30 08:17
Core Points - Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced plans to declare a national state of emergency in response to perceived threats from the U.S. following military actions against Venezuelan vessels under the pretext of combating drug trafficking [1][2] - Maduro has initiated consultations for this declaration, emphasizing constitutional measures to protect the Venezuelan people and maintain peace and stability [1] - The Venezuelan Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, stated that Maduro signed an "external turmoil decree" granting him special powers to act in defense and security matters [1][2] Summary by Sections - **Military Actions and U.S. Involvement** - The U.S. has deployed multiple warships in the Caribbean near Venezuela, claiming to have destroyed several "drug trafficking boats" and killed numerous "drug traffickers" [2] - In August, the U.S. offered a $50 million reward for information leading to the capture of Maduro, citing allegations of drug trafficking [2] - **Venezuelan Government Response** - The "external turmoil decree" allows the President to deploy armed forces, take control of public institutions, and manage critical infrastructure such as the oil and gas industry [1] - This decree, once enacted, will enable the government to implement citizen safety plans [1] - According to Venezuelan law, the special powers granted to Maduro will last for 90 days, with the possibility of a 90-day extension [1]
特朗普“调兵”孟菲斯 威胁宣布“国家紧急状态”
Xin Hua She· 2025-09-16 13:55
新华社北京9月16日电继首都华盛顿特区后,美国总统特朗普15日又以"打击犯罪"为由,宣布向田纳西 州孟菲斯市派遣国民警卫队。 同日,华盛顿特区市长缪丽尔·鲍泽表示拒绝与联邦移民执法部门合作。特朗普威胁说,若该市犯罪率 再次上升,可能"宣布国家紧急状态",并再次接管首都警力。 特朗普:复制在华盛顿的"成功" 据多家美国媒体报道,特朗普15日签署命令,成立孟菲斯市安全特别工作组,向当地派遣国民警卫队, 以打击犯罪活动。 特朗普当天在白宫椭圆形办公室与田纳西州共和党籍州长比尔·李共同宣布这一消息。 "我们现在正在派遣大部队。"特朗普说,除了军队,在孟菲斯的行动还将涉及联邦调查局、毒品管制 局、移民与海关执法局等多个联邦机构的官员。他称孟菲斯的工作组将"复制我们在华盛顿取得的成 功"。 特朗普表示,他还考虑将联邦执法人员派到芝加哥、圣路易斯和新奥尔良等城市。"我们将逐步解决所 有问题,就像我们在华盛顿做的那样。" 民主党人:伤害社区和国家 特朗普在社交媒体上发文称,他对华盛顿执法部门的干预改善了当地治安,如果现在移民执法合作停 止,犯罪率可能上升。如果发生这种情况,他将在必要时"宣布国家紧急状态"。 据美媒报道,特朗 ...
特朗普指责华盛顿市长助长犯罪风险,称必要时将宣布国家紧急状态并启动联邦接管程序
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 06:23
(责任编辑:宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月15日|美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文称,"在担任美利坚合众国总统期间,我所领导的 联邦政府已全面介入处理华盛顿特区这一国家首都曾面临的严重犯罪困境。通过有效干预,这座原本位 列全美乃至全球最危险、凶案频发的城市,在短短数周内已转变为最安全的城市之一。然而,在激进左 翼民主党人的压力下,多年来纵容首都暴力犯罪泛滥的市长穆丽尔·鲍泽近日通知联邦政府,大都会警 察局将终止与移民及海关执法局(ICE)在驱逐危险非法移民方面的合作。若允许此决定生效,犯罪潮必 将卷土重来。在此我向华盛顿特区的居民和企业郑重承诺:请勿担忧,我坚定与你们同在,绝不容许这 种情况发生。必要时我将宣布国家紧急状态并启动联邦接管程序!" ...
特朗普威胁将宣布全国紧急状态
第一财经· 2025-09-15 06:02
据CCTV国际时讯,美国东部时间今天(9月15日)凌晨,美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上 发帖威胁称,在华盛顿市长鲍泽通知联邦政府"华盛顿特区大都会警察局不会就非法居住或进入美国的 个人信息与美国移民与海关执法局合作"后,他将在必要时宣布美国全国进入紧急状态,并对华盛顿特 区进行全面联邦管制。 特朗普在帖文中称:"在本人作为美国总统的主持下,联邦政府已全面介入华盛顿特区这一犯罪重灾 区。我国首都已从全美乃至全球最危险、凶杀案最猖獗的城市之一,在短短数周内转变为最安全的城市 之一。这座城市的餐厅、商铺和企业如今人潮涌动,呈现一派繁荣景象,数十年来首次实现近乎'零犯 罪率'。这番转变令人欣慰。但如今在激进左翼民主党人的压力下,常年纵容暴力犯罪侵蚀首都的缪里 尔·鲍泽市长竟通知联邦政府,大都会警察局将不再配合移民与海关执法局驱逐危险非法移民。如果我 放任此事,犯罪浪潮必将卷土重来。特向华盛顿特区居民和企业郑重承诺:请勿担忧,我与你们同在, 绝不容许此事发生。必要时我将宣布国家紧急状态并实施联邦管制!!!" ...
特朗普诉至最高法院要求维持全球关税,万亿美元贸易战将迎终局裁决
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-04 06:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's request for the U.S. Supreme Court to uphold his global tariff policy, which could significantly impact international trade and grant him new leverage over the global economy [1][3]. Economic Implications - This case is one of the largest the Supreme Court has ever handled in terms of economic stakes, with a potential outcome that could halve the current average effective tariff rate of 16.3% and require the U.S. to refund billions in tariffs [3]. - The tariffs in question include those implemented on April 2, which represent the largest increase in U.S. import taxes since 1930, raising the average applicable tariff rate to its highest level in over a century [6]. Legal Context - The Supreme Court is being asked to expedite the review process, with oral arguments scheduled for early November, potentially leading to a ruling by the end of the year [5]. - The legal challenge stems from a ruling by a federal appeals court that determined Trump could not impose large-scale import taxes under the 1977 law intended for national emergencies [3][8]. Presidential Authority - The case will test the limits of presidential power regarding national security and economic emergencies, as the law does not explicitly grant the authority to impose tariffs [8][9]. - The Constitution assigns tariff authority to Congress, raising questions about whether this power has been delegated to the President [9]. Implications for Trade Agreements - A ruling against Trump could disrupt preliminary trade agreements he has made with various countries and affect ongoing diplomatic negotiations [4][6].
真当中国不会出手?美国这次玩大了!中美局势突然大变,特朗普最担心的情况出现了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 14:26
据新华网消息,近期美国再度调整对中国部分商品关税政策,中美关税博弈持续引发全球关注。自特朗普再次执政以来,对中国发起的关税战便成为国际经 济与政治领域焦点。如今局势突变,特朗普正面临极为棘手的局面。 美国有线电视新闻网评论称,在短短六个月内,特朗普 "重塑了全球贸易格局,颠覆了长达一个世纪的惯例"。一些企业主公开表示,若关税战持续,企业 将被迫裁员甚至倒闭,这将对美国就业市场造成沉重打击,普通民众也将深受其害。美国部分政客也对特朗普的关税政策提出批评,认为其可能导致美国经 济衰退,仅依靠加征关税这一简单粗暴的手段,无法实现美国的繁荣发展,反而可能使美国经济陷入困境。 从经济数据对比来看,特朗普的关税战并未达到预期效果。在关税战背景下,美国经济增长动能受到抑制。美国 6 月贸易逆差虽出现收窄,据美国人口普查 局与商务部经济分析局 8 月 5 日联合公布的数据,2025 年 6 月美国货物和服务贸易逆差为 602 亿美元,比修正后的 5 月 717 亿美元减少 115 亿美元,环比 下降 16%,但这主要是由于内需放缓导致消费品及原材料进口降至新冠疫情以来最低,并非关税政策的积极成效。 与此同时,美国国内通胀压力 ...
国际观察丨政策与权力的双重争斗——特朗普政府的关税官司远未了结
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-06 02:51
新华社北京8月6日电 题:政策与权力的双重争斗——特朗普政府的关税官司远未了结 新华社记者马倩 美国特朗普政府声称将自8月7日起对多国征收高额关税,但其关税政策在国内引发的官司远未了结,美 国国内对白宫关税政策涉嫌违宪违法的质疑声日益高涨。 在美国一家联邦巡回上诉法院近日举行的听证会上,多名法官对特朗普政府是否有权力决定对众多国家 施加大规模、高额关税提出质疑。 美国《纽约时报》说,特朗普政府目前面临十多起涉及关税政策的诉讼,如果败诉将在关税政策上"回 到原点"。美国法律专家认为,这场司法大战既是美国国内的贸易政策之争,也是有关总统权限的权力 之争。 "那项法律根本就没提关税" 上周,华盛顿特区联邦巡回上诉法院举行听证会,围绕特朗普政府对多国征收高额关税的相关做法是否 构成越权违宪展开辩论。 特朗普政府上台后援引美国《国际紧急经济权力法》,以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方式出台 一系列加征关税措施。今年5月,美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普政府此举违法。随后,特朗普政府向联 邦巡回上诉法院提起上诉。 在上周的听证会上,上诉法院多名法官质疑特朗普政府"关税权力"的合法性,认为白宫未能证明,所谓 美国的贸易逆差构成 ...
美国联邦上诉法院提出尖锐质疑,特朗普大部分关税面临严峻法律考验
news flash· 2025-07-31 20:47
Group 1 - The legality of President Trump's broad imposition of global tariffs is being challenged in a federal appeals court [1] - A hearing was held by an 11-judge panel, focusing on the Trump administration's claim that the ongoing trade deficit constitutes a national emergency [1] - The outcome of the court's decision could impact the implementation of higher tariffs set to take effect the following day [1]
美国法庭立大功,关税政策遭制止,不用中方出手,特朗普被催离职
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-02 10:44
Core Viewpoint - A U.S. court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy is invalid, raising questions about presidential authority in trade matters and causing significant market reactions [3][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Context - The tariff policy was announced by Trump on April 2, aimed at addressing perceived unfairness in the global trade system and reducing the trade deficit [5][6]. - The policy imposed varying tariffs on multiple countries, intending to pressure them into renegotiating trade agreements [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs have negatively affected global economic stability, leading to rising costs for U.S. companies, particularly those reliant on exports, and increasing consumer prices [6][8]. - Economists and industry associations have warned that high tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and weaken U.S. competitiveness in international markets [8]. Group 3: Legal and Political Reactions - The court's ruling was based on the U.S. Constitution, which assigns tariff authority to Congress, not the president, and deemed Trump's claims of a national emergency unfounded [9][10]. - Despite the ruling, Trump plans to appeal, indicating a potential prolonged legal battle over the tariff policy [10][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, global markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures showing significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about the potential repeal of the tariffs [11][13]. - A successful repeal could restore confidence in global markets, encouraging multinational companies to increase foreign investments and enhancing capital flow [13].