｜2025年12月17日 星期三｜ NO.1 中信证券：预计美联储将在明年1月暂停降息 12月17日，银河证券指出，当前环境下，中长期资金加速入市，市场活跃度维持高位，资本市场展现 出"健康牛"态势，财富管理转型、国际业务拓展、金融科技赋能均有望成为行业提升ROE驱动力。当前 板块估值处于历史低位，防御反弹攻守兼备。 NO.3 华西证券：科技轮动缺位时，关注消费板块高低切逻辑 12月17日，中信证券研报称，2025年11月美国新增非农就业人数和失业率均超预期。10月新增非农就业 人数大幅减少，原因是部分接受"延迟辞职"方案的美国联邦政府雇员退出了工资单，导致政府部门拖累 整体读数。鲍威尔给非农"官方打折"，11月新增非农就业谈不上强劲。"低招聘"延续，但"低裁员"在10 月和11月有所变化。不过就12月美股公司提到"Job Cuts"的次数来看，裁员规模并未恶化。若12月失业 率不继续上升，则预计美联储仍会认为政策利率"well positioned"。中信证券维持此前观点，预计美联 储将在明年1月暂停降息。 NO.2 银河证券：证券板块估值处于历史低位 12月17日，华西证券研报指出，对于股市而言，科技轮动 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 有投资者在互动平台向寿仙谷提问："请问近两年是否出口欧盟国家？" 针对上述提问，寿仙谷回应称："您好！感谢您的关注！目前，公司已进驻阿里国际站和亚马逊平台， 尚未实现产品直接出口欧盟国家。公司如有国际业务重大进展，将严格按规定及时履行信息披露义务， 敬请关注公司公告。谢谢！" 作者：公告君 ...

| 序号 证券代码 证券简称 | | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [区间首日] 本年初 [区间尾日] 最新收盘日 | | | 11 | 399975.SZ 证券公司 | [単位] % ↑ | 2.0366 | | 2 000001.SH 上证指数 | | | 16.3715 | | 3 399001.SZ 深证成指 | | | 27.8629 | | 4 399006.SZ 创业板指 | | | 49.8417 | 注：券商ETF被动跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，该指数基日为2007.6.29，发布于2013.7.15。中证全指证 券公司指数2020~2024年年度涨跌幅分别为16.55%、-4.95%、-27.37%、3.04%、27.26%。指数成份股构 成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。 然而上周五到本周一的涨势，以及今日的活跃表现，再度引发了市场对券商板块投资机会的热议。作 为"牛市旗手"的券商板块能否再度爆发？ 分析认为，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标将持续定调板块未来走向，流动性适度 宽松环境延续 ...

人民财讯12月10日电，银河证券认为，国家"稳增长、稳股市"、"提振资本市场"的政策目标将持续定调 证券板块未来走向，流动性适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素 共同推动证券板块景气度上行。当前环境下，中长期资金加速入市，市场活跃度维持高位，资本市场展 现出"健康牛"态势，财富管理转型、国际业务拓展、金融科技赋能均有望成为行业提升ROE驱动力。当 前板块估值处于历史低位，防御反弹攻守兼备。建议关注综合实力强劲的头部券商，以及在财管、自 营、跨境等业务领域具备差异化竞争优势的券商。 ...

中国经济网北京12月5日讯 据北交所网站消息，北京证券交易所上市委员会定于2025年12月12日下 午14时召开2025年第43次审议会议，届时将审议广东美亚旅游科技集团股份有限公司（简称"美亚科 技"）的首发事项。 截至招股说明书签署日，伍俊雄、陈培钢、陈连江、蔡洁雯为公司的共同实际控制人。其中，伍俊 雄直接持有美亚科技30.13%的股权，并通过广州旅商投资合伙企业（有限合伙）控制美亚科技3.36%的 表决权；陈培钢直接持有美亚科技23.01%的股权；陈连江直接持有美亚科技6.02%的股权；蔡洁雯直接 持有美亚科技3.77%的股权。 上述各方中，伍俊雄与陈连江为夫妻关系，陈培钢与蔡洁雯为夫妻关系，陈连江与陈培钢为兄妹关 系；其中伍俊雄担任公司董事长，陈培钢担任公司董事、总经理，蔡洁雯、陈连江均未在公司任职，不 参与公司日常运营。 (责任编辑：魏京婷) 美亚科技拟在北交所上市，拟募集资金35,999.41万元，分别用于智能化泛商旅业务及管理系统研发 项目、国际业务拓展及业务系统开发建设项目、品牌宣传及营销渠道建设项目、补充流动资金。 美亚科技的保荐机构是广发证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人陈胜圳、郭国。 截至招股 ...

格隆汇11月28日丨洁雅股份(301108.SZ)公布，为满足业务发展需要，深化与海外客户的合作关系，推 进国际业务发展布局，铜陵洁雅生物科技股份有限公司全资子公司洁雅生物科技（厦门）有限责任公司 （简称"洁雅厦门"）以自有资金35万美元在新加坡设立全资公司，主要从事贸易批发业务。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 1: Core Online Travel Platform - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [1] - In the transportation ticketing segment, revenue reached 2.2 billion yuan, up 9% year-over-year, driven by deep insights into user demand and a continuous enhancement of value-added products and services, with international ticket sales growing rapidly [1] - The accommodation booking segment generated 1.58 billion yuan in revenue, a 15% year-over-year increase, benefiting from a significant rise in high-quality hotel room nights and improved brand recognition among high-value users in lower-tier cities [1] - Other revenue sources totaled 820 million yuan, a 35% year-over-year increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and 1,500 hotels in preparation as of September 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Vacation Business and User Performance - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 900 million yuan in Q3 2025, a decline of 8% year-over-year, largely due to security issues in Southeast Asia [2] - The company saw a steady increase in paid user numbers, with an average monthly paid user count of 47.7 million, up 2.8% year-over-year, and an annual paid user count of 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-over-year, with total service users growing by 7.3% to 2.02 billion [2] - As of September 30, 2025, over 87% of registered users lived in non-first-tier cities in China, with more than 70% of new paid users from WeChat in Q3 2025 coming from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in lower-tier markets, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in these markets, international business expansion, and user growth driven by online and offline traffic [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.5 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 2.9 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively, leading to diluted EPS of 1.3, 1.4, and 1.6 yuan, and corresponding P/E ratios of 15.7, 14.2, and 12.3 [2] - The target market value for the company in 2026 is set at 60.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 28 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB [1] Recent Events - Trip.com Group has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey increased by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings up by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's bookings surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings increased by approximately 30%. Popular destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with significant growth in Europe, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices remained stable [2] - International business: Trip.com reported a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holiday. There is a growing diversity in tourism demand, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as in remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the U.S. [3]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan [1] - The company benefited from robust travel demand during the peak season, with both domestic and international markets showing healthy growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, driven by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, supported by strong growth in international air bookings [1] - Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, growing 3% year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines [1] - Business travel management revenue was 756 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year, as more companies adopted this service [1] International Business Performance - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60%, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor [2] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year, with strong growth also observed in Europe and the U.S. [2] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2] Demographic Trends - Demand from both senior and young travelers is strong, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity [3] - The number of users in the "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences [3] - Young travelers are increasingly driven by experiential tourism, with significant revenue growth in this segment due to events like concerts [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve revenues of 61.56 billion yuan, 70.78 billion yuan, and 80.36 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5% respectively [3] - Projected net profits for the same period are 31.92 billion yuan, 20.58 billion yuan, and 23.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively [3] - Ctrip's domestic business advantages and potential growth in international markets suggest long-term investment value, with a target PE of 20.5X for 2026 [3]

Core Insights - Major securities firms have held earnings briefings for Q3 2025, addressing key topics such as M&A, international business, digital transformation, and performance fluctuations [1] Group 1: Performance Fluctuations - Despite an overall market recovery, some securities firms reported performance fluctuations in Q3 2025, raising investor concerns [2] - Huatai Securities reported Q3 2025 revenue of 10.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.183 billion yuan, down 28.11% year-on-year [2] - Huatai Securities' CEO explained that excluding a one-time gain from subsidiary disposal in 2024, Q3 2025 revenue would have increased by 98%, with a 389% year-on-year growth in net profit after adjustments [3] Group 2: Strategic Focus on Investment - Investors questioned why招商证券's proprietary investment returns lagged behind other leading firms, prompting the firm to emphasize its focus on asset allocation and market conditions [4] - 招商证券 plans to enhance fixed income investments by identifying structural opportunities in the domestic bond market and expanding overseas bond investments [4] Group 3: M&A and Restructuring - The market is closely watching the progress of M&A and restructuring among securities firms, supported by regulatory encouragement [5] - 国泰海通证券's chairman stated that the firm is actively integrating business, management, and systems in compliance with regulatory requirements [5] - 中信证券's chairman highlighted that M&A can effectively consolidate market resources and enhance competitiveness, indicating a balanced approach to internal and external growth strategies [5] Group 4: International Business Expansion - Several firms are prioritizing international business development, with 中信证券 aiming to leverage favorable external market conditions to expand its international footprint [6][7] - 光大证券 is focusing on enhancing its wealth management capabilities in Hong Kong and improving cross-border financing and research capabilities [7] - 中国银河证券 plans to strengthen its overseas subsidiaries' management and maintain its core market position in Southeast Asia [7] Group 5: Adapting to Industry Challenges - In light of the current challenges in the investment banking sector, firms are adapting their strategies to overcome headwinds [8] - 中信证券 is prioritizing functional roles to support national strategies and enhance services for key clients in technology innovation [8] - 中信建投 is focusing on a matrix layout to capture opportunities in various markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and REITs [8]