Group 1 - Citic Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January 2024, despite mixed employment data in November [1] - The report highlights that the November non-farm payrolls were weaker than expected, influenced by government employees opting for "delayed resignation" plans [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable, leading the Fed to consider its policy rate as "well positioned" [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities notes that the current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, with mid-to-long term capital inflows accelerating into the market [2] - The capital market is exhibiting a "healthy bull" trend, driven by wealth management transformation, international business expansion, and financial technology empowerment [2] - The sector is positioned for both defensive and offensive strategies amid the current market conditions [2] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities emphasizes the importance of consumer sector strategies in the absence of technology sector momentum, suggesting a focus on high-low rotation logic [3] - The report indicates a decline in consumer growth rates, with expectations for policy support as highlighted in the central economic work conference [3] - The dividend sector has seen a cumulative decline of 5.95% since November 14, with historical data suggesting limited potential for further declines [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market's willingness to chase technology stocks has decreased, leading to a focus on the high-low rotation logic in the consumer sector as of December [1] - Economic data from November indicates a slowdown in consumer growth, with the central economic work conference prioritizing "demand-led growth" as a key task for 2026, suggesting potential policy support [1] - The dividend sector has seen a decline of 5.95% since November 14, and historical data since 924 suggests that the potential for further decline may be limited [1] Group 2 - The new energy sector remains a solid investment logic, although it has not shown significant recovery since a sharp drop on November 21, indicating it is also a direction worth monitoring [1]

Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]