1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is expected to increase, with some regenerative enterprises in Anhui planning to resume production and an expected increase in imported lead arrivals. The production of primary lead is expected to have limited growth in the short - term. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and cautious procurement. The overall demand is in a slow recovery stage. It is recommended to short - sell lead at high prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract is 17,615 yuan/ton, up 455 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,995 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is 50 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 115,683 lots, up 27,111 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,686 lots, down 958 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 23,734 tons, down 1,243 tons. The SHFE inventory is 41,701 tons, up 1,785 tons; the LME lead inventory is 244,125 tons, down 3,175 tons. The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 17,125 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 17,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract is - 490 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 39.73 dollars/ton, down 0.04 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,396 yuan, down 75 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,070 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 39,100 tons, up 1,800 tons [2] Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is down 90 dollars/kiloton. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 5,600 tons, down 5,100 tons. The global lead ore output is 379,900 tons, down 16,000 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,991.07 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49.68 million units, up 1.925 million units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other electrical cells is 1,978.98 points, down 23.88 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.333 million vehicles, up 157,000 vehicles [2] Industry News - Some regenerative enterprises in Anhui plan to resume production, and the supply is expected to pick up. The lead concentrate processing fee is currently stable, but the production rhythm of some smelters has changed greatly. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the primary lead operating rate fluctuates slightly. The supply of waste batteries is still tight, and the recycling merchants are reluctant to sell. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and the enterprises that stopped production in Anhui in October will resume production one after another [2] Viewpoint Summary - The supply of lead is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The overall demand is in a slow recovery stage, and it is recommended to short - sell lead at high prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with lead futures showing significant price movements and positive market sentiment driven by various factors including inventory levels and production rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 23, lead futures opened at 17,160.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 17,760.00 CNY, marking a 3.12% increase [1] - The lead market is characterized by a strong performance, with expectations for continued upward movement in the short term [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Lead ore port inventories have increased, while lead concentrate treatment charges (TC) have stabilized, maintaining high operating rates for primary lead smelting [1] - The supply of recycled lead is tightening, with a recovery in profits for recycled lead smelting, leading to increased weekly operating rates [1][2] - Domestic and foreign lead inventories are on the rise, indicating a slowdown in demand [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers are experiencing a decline in inventory levels, with battery factory stocks dropping to 19.7 days and dealer inventories to 39.7 days, alleviating pressure on finished goods [1] - Despite the traditional peak season for battery production, demand remains cautious, with a slow recovery observed in the overall market [2] - Emerging storage demand is showing positive trends, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional demand sectors [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement outlines adjustments to the value-added tax (VAT) policy for wind power generation and nuclear power, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, aiming to promote renewable energy and support the nuclear power sector [1][9]. Summary by Sections Wind Power VAT Policy - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a VAT policy of immediate collection and 50% refund will be implemented for taxpayers selling electricity products generated from offshore wind power [1][9]. Nuclear Power VAT Policy - Nuclear power plants that officially commenced commercial operations before October 31, 2025, will continue to follow the existing VAT regulations as per the 2008 notice [1][9]. - For nuclear power plants approved but not yet operational by October 31, 2025, a VAT policy of prior collection and subsequent 50% refund will apply for ten years starting from the month after they begin commercial operations [1][9]. - Nuclear power plants approved after November 1, 2025, will not be eligible for the prior collection and subsequent refund VAT policy [1][9]. Policy Consistency - Any existing regulations inconsistent with this announcement will be superseded by this announcement, and previous notices regarding wind power VAT policy will be abolished effective November 1, 2025 [2][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Metal Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Conditions on October 20 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Trading Volume**: RB2601 closed at 3045 yuan/ton with a -0.03% change, trading 1,232,540 lots; HC2601 closed at 3215 yuan/ton with a -0.12% change, trading 539,570 lots; SS2512 closed at 12595 yuan/ton with a -0.16% change, trading 124,780 lots [5] - **Position Changes**: RB2601's open interest increased by 1,609 lots; HC2601's increased by 7,152 lots [5] - **Fund Flows**: RB2601 had a 0.15 - billion - yuan inflow; HC2601 had a 0.28 - billion - yuan inflow [5] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: Some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices declined. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Hefei dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Zhengzhou dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - Rebar 2601 contract's daily KDJ indicator showed a golden cross, and hot - rolled coil 2601's was close to a golden cross. Both contracts' daily MACD green bars narrowed [8] 4. Market Outlook 4.1 News and Policy - Trump's attitude towards China - US trade tariffs softened, which eased market concerns. He will meet with China in about two weeks and is optimistic about the negotiation. The US Treasury Secretary also said the meeting may lead to a broader trade agreement [9][10] 4.2 Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: In the past 6 weeks, the weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly but remained high; weekly demand rebounded from the lowest since late February but was lower than the end - September level; social inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly from the highest since mid - April [10] - **Raw Materials**: In the past 2 weeks, iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills and imported sintered powder ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills dropped significantly; in the past 4 weeks, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased by 2.2% on top of a 3.7% increase in the previous 4 weeks, and arrivals increased by 11.9% after a 1.4% decrease in the previous 4 weeks; coke profit was briefly positive and then turned negative, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1; steel mills reduced coke inventories after the holiday; coking coal prices remained firm [11] 4.3 Forecast - Steel demand has seasonal improvement, but trade conflicts remain uncertain. Steel futures prices are expected to be more volatile, with a possible first - decline - then - rebound trend. Attention should be paid to market expectations before China - US trade negotiations, raw material prices after most steel mills' profits turn negative, and the impact of low temperatures on terminal demand [11] 5. Industry News - **Economic Growth**: The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the Q3 GDP growth slowdown to international trade protectionism and domestic economic structural adjustment [12] - **Policy Adjustment**: The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration adjusted the VAT policy for wind power generation and nuclear power [13] - **Production Data**: From January to September 2025, national coke production was 377.16 million tons (up 3.5% YoY), pig iron production was 645.86 million tons (down 1.1% YoY), crude steel production was 746.25 million tons (down 2.9% YoY), and steel production was 1.10385 billion tons (up 5.4% YoY). In September, national coal production was 411.51 million tons (down 1.8% YoY), and industrial power generation was 826.2 billion kWh (up 1.5% YoY) [13] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan (down 13.9% YoY), construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters (down 9.4% YoY), new commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters (down 5.5% YoY), and sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan (down 7.9% YoY) [13] - **Railway Transport**: In the first three quarters of 2025, national railway freight volume was 3.912 billion tons (up 2.8% YoY) [14] - **Corporate Performance**: Baotou Steel's semi - annual asset - liability ratio in 2025 decreased by 0.42 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and financial expenses decreased by 6.29% YoY [14] - **International Trade**: In September 2025, China exported 6.4 million tons of steel plates (down 6.1% YoY) and 1.68 million tons of steel bars (up 25.0% YoY). In September, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 48.5673 million tons (down 0.48% YoY, up 9.58% MoM) [14] 6. Data Overview - The report presents various steel - related data charts, including prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [16][17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply scale of the polysilicon industry remains large, with partial corporate production cuts falling short of expectations, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory and increasing supply - side pressure [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with sluggish demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers, and narrowing industry gross margins [2]. - The European market has high inventory, suppressing import demand, while the US tariff policy's loosening only drives the growth of energy - storage system exports, which cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side [2]. - If supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices. Polysilicon prices have started to decline, mainly affected by market sentiment. With some factories planning to stop production in the dry season, the market sentiment's feedback needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,340 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the main position volume is 56,806 lots, down 11,421 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,490 yuan, up 35 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,775 yuan/ton, down 2,135 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 175 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,565 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the spot price is 9,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons, and the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69.857 million kilowatts, up 3.475 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units, and the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Affected by recent meetings and the electricity price during the wet/dry season, some polysilicon bases in Southwest China have gradually reduced raw - material input and are expected to completely stop production from late October to early November, with the involved production capacity being about 320,000 tons/year [2]. - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments have adjusted the value - added tax policy for wind power generation and other industries [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent adjustments in the value-added tax (VAT) policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability for operators in these sectors [9][10]. - It notes the competitive pricing results for electricity in Xinjiang and Gansu, with Xinjiang's prices nearing the upper limit of the bidding range, suggesting a favorable environment for renewable energy operators [8]. - The report discusses the decline in global LNG prices, with China's comprehensive LNG import price reaching a four-year low, which could benefit domestic gas companies [12][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's mechanism electricity bidding results show a scale of 36 billion kWh for solar and 185 billion kWh for wind, with prices at 0.235 CNY/kWh and 0.252 CNY/kWh respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][8]. - The VAT policy changes will eliminate the 50% VAT refund for onshore wind from November 1, 2025, while maintaining it for offshore wind until the end of 2027 [9][10]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, China Nuclear Power, and Longyuan Power due to their stable growth prospects [11]. 2. Gas Sector - Global gas prices have shown slight declines, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, reflecting a 2.90% weekly drop [12][15]. - China's LNG import price has dropped to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021, driven by lower oil prices affecting long-term contracts [27][29]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and economic recovery may enhance profitability [29]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt-for-equity swaps and the increasing stability of returns for green energy operators, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Hongcheng Environment [11]. - It highlights the ongoing rise in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with several rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance in the coming years [41].

Core Points - Datang New Energy's stock dropped over 3%, currently at HKD 2.52 with a trading volume of HKD 64.6341 million [1] - The company reported a cumulative power generation of 25,890,603 MWh by September 30, 2025, an increase of 11.68% compared to 2024 [1] - Wind power generation reached 21,840,558 MWh, up 7.40% year-on-year, while solar power generation increased by 42.22% to 4,050,045 MWh [1] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the 50% VAT refund policy for onshore wind power effective November 1, 2023 [2] - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a 50% VAT refund policy will be applied to offshore wind power products [2] - Analysts suggest that the removal of the VAT refund for onshore wind indicates its technological maturity and competitive cost, eliminating the need for special tax support [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Datang New Energy's stock has declined over 3% following the announcement of its power generation results and changes in tax policies affecting wind power [1] - As of September 30, 2025, Datang New Energy reported a cumulative power generation of 25,890,603 MWh, an increase of 11.68% compared to 2024 [1] - The wind power generation reached 21,840,558 MWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.40%, while solar power generation was 4,050,045 MWh, showing a significant increase of 42.22% compared to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the 50% VAT refund policy for onshore wind power starting November 1, 2023 [2] - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a 50% VAT refund policy will be implemented for offshore wind power products, indicating a shift in tax incentives from onshore to offshore wind energy [2] - Analysts suggest that the removal of the tax incentive for onshore wind power indicates its technological maturity and competitive cost, reducing the need for special tax support [2]

Core Points - The announcement outlines adjustments to the value-added tax (VAT) policy for wind power generation and nuclear power plants in China, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [1][6] - A 50% VAT immediate refund policy will be implemented for taxpayers selling electricity generated from offshore wind power [1][6] - Existing nuclear power plants that commenced commercial operations before October 31, 2025, will continue to follow previous VAT regulations, while newly approved nuclear plants after this date will not benefit from the VAT refund policy [1][6] Summary by Sections Wind Power - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a 50% VAT immediate refund policy will apply to electricity products generated from offshore wind power [1][6] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power plants that are officially operational before October 31, 2025, will adhere to existing VAT regulations as per the 2008 notice [1][6] - For nuclear power plants approved before October 31, 2025, but not yet operational, a VAT refund policy will apply for 10 years post-commercial operation, with a 50% refund on paid VAT [1][6] - Nuclear power plants approved after November 1, 2025, will not be eligible for the VAT refund policy [1][6] Regulatory Changes - The announcement supersedes previous regulations that are inconsistent with it, specifically the 2015 notice on wind power VAT policy, which will be abolished starting November 1, 2025 [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration introduces a new VAT policy for offshore wind power products, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, allowing a 50% VAT refund for taxpayers selling self-produced electricity from offshore wind power [1][2]. Summary by Sections VAT Policy for Offshore Wind Power - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a 50% VAT refund policy will be implemented for taxpayers selling self-produced electricity generated from offshore wind power [1]. Nuclear Power Tax Policy - Nuclear power units that officially commence commercial operation before October 31, 2025, will continue to follow existing VAT regulations as per previous notifications. For nuclear power units approved before this date but not yet operational, a VAT refund policy will apply for 10 years post-commercial operation, with a 50% refund on paid VAT [1]. - Nuclear power units approved after November 1, 2025, will not be eligible for the VAT refund policy [1]. Repeal of Previous Regulations - The announcement states that existing regulations inconsistent with this new policy will be superseded, and previous notifications regarding wind power VAT policies will be abolished starting November 1, 2025 [2].