Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea is in a stage of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity, and its price center in 2026 will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. In the first half of 2026, corresponding to the peak agricultural demand season, exports are likely to be suspended, and the urea market will fluctuate according to the demand rhythm. In the second half of the year, export policies will be relied on to relieve the domestic supply pressure, and the price trend will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has an expectation of price increase during the domestic demand peak season, probably starting one month before the Spring Festival in 2026, with the top - end range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try to buy far - month contracts [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is in a weak and stalemate state. The current urea market is mainly in a narrow - range rebound and then a stalemate, with an overall oscillating trend, but the bottom - end range may continue to rise [11][17]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The urea market is in a supply - surplus stage due to new capacity release. In 2026, the price center will decline but be supported by export policies. The 05 contract has a price - increase expectation during the domestic demand peak season, likely starting one month before the 2026 Spring Festival, with a top - end range of 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try buying far - month contracts [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 month spread should be in a reverse - arbitrage position. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to operate in a weak and oscillating manner. The UR2601 is expected to trade in the range of 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and to conduct reverse - arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong due to peak - season demand expectations [14]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse - arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [14]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: None [15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter - storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL has issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons (800,000 tons on the west coast and 700,000 tons on the east coast), with a bid - closing date of January 2, 2026, and a validity period until January 16, and the latest shipping date of February 20 [16]. - **Negative Information**: As of this week, the domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices of Shandong Union and Jiangsu Linggu will gradually resume, while some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan are expected to have concentrated maintenance. The domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly after a narrow - range upward fluctuation. If the maintenance expectation is fulfilled, the domestic daily urea production is likely to drop to around 200,000 tons [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's urea production this week is 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,400 tons or 2.93%. Next week, China's weekly urea production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, continuing to increase. There are no plans for plant shutdowns in the next cycle, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise firmly over the weekend, with an increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of small and medium - sized granules in the main regions are between 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the news of the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender, the market sentiment is strong, but the downstream resistance is emerging. The short - term market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [19]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. The demand from compound fertilizer and industrial sectors is weak, and the price - driving force is limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern [20]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [26]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton. They can also buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a 50% and 50% hedging ratio for buying put options and selling call options respectively, and corresponding entry ranges [26]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 75% hedging ratio and an entry range [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal data on the production cost and profit of urea production methods such as fixed - bed, water - coal slurry gasification, etc., but specific profit - related analysis is not elaborated [27][28][31]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea, reflecting the production - side situation [36][37][38]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi of urea, as well as the total inventory of ports and inland areas [39][40][41]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on the capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, production profit, and market price of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine, reflecting the downstream market situation [45][46][47]. 4.5 Spot Sales and Production Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the average sales and production of urea in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, etc., reflecting the spot - market sales and production situation [69][70][71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high, and there is an expectation that inventory may rise after the end of the environmental protection warning. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up of compound fertilizers has decreased slightly this week, and the short - term enterprise device start - up rate may fluctuate slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1740 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 196,387 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,506 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 10,750 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 318 lots [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1730, 1710, 1720, 1730, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0, 30, 10, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 390 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 13.8 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%; the daily output is 195,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons. The export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 39.37%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25%; the melamine start - up rate is 58.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.31%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4382,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 13.334 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 325,000 tons, or 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of urea decreased slightly this week due to new device overhauls, but is expected to increase slightly considering short - term malfunctions of enterprises. Agricultural demand is in a short - term off - season, with some reserve demand for replenishment, especially in the Northeast. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer decreased slightly due to environmental warnings in some areas, and its capacity utilization rate is expected to decline steadily. Affected by market sentiment, urea factories' order intake improved and inventory continued to decline. After the end of environmental warnings, urea output is expected to rise and inventory may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton, down 2734 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 187,367 lots, up 8318 lots, and the net position of the top 20 was - 24,111 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts were 10,432 sheets, down 100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei was 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan, it was 1680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Shandong, it was 1710 yuan/ton, with Jiangsu down 10 yuan/ton and Shandong unchanged; in Anhui, it was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 25 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 390 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 138,000 tons, up 15,000 tons; enterprise inventory was 1.1797 million tons, down 54,500 tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points; the daily output was 195,100 tons, down 2800 tons. Urea exports were 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons; the monthly output was 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 39.37%, down 1.25 percentage points; the melamine start - up rate was 58.55%, down 3.31 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 140 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 36 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 30,500 tons, down 1700 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, down 110,800 tons from last week, a 9.39% decrease. As of December 18, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 138,000 tons, up 15,000 tons, a 12.20% increase, with exports being shipped to ports steadily. As of December 18, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3659 million tons, down 19,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term urea factory order receipts have improved, and there is a possibility of further destocking due to partial reserve restocking and factory delivery requirements. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily due to environmental warnings in some areas and limited new orders. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, with destocking mainly in North, Northeast, and Northwest China, and there is still a destocking trend in the short - term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,721 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread is 16 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,137 (the meaning of this change value needs further clarification). The main contract's open interest is 179,049 lots, an increase of 9,875 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 21,377. The exchange warehouse receipts are 10,532, a decrease of 349 [3]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remain unchanged, and the price in Jiangsu is up 20 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 13.8 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared to the previous week; the enterprise inventory is 117.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.69%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The daily output is 195,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons. The export volume is 1.2 billion tons, a decrease of 17% [3]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. The destocking was mainly in North, Northeast, and Northwest China. As of December 18, the port inventory was 13.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.20%. The urea production decreased slightly due to new device overhauls, and the production is expected to increase slightly in the future [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term urea factory order receipts have improved, and there may be further destocking. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - New partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. With no planned shutdowns this week and 2 - 4 shutdown plants possibly resuming production, output is expected to increase slightly considering short - term faults [3]. - Agriculture is in a short - term off - season for rigid demand, with recent reserve demand for phased replenishment, and there is still a reserve demand expectation in the Northeast [3]. - Environmental warnings in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places caused a slight decline in compound fertilizer operation, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to decline steadily or slightly [3]. - Urea factories' inventory continued to decline last week. Short - term receipt of orders by urea factories improved, and there may be further destocking. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1698 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 169,174 lots, up 5,318 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 15,240 [3]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 10,881 sheets, down 95 sheets [3]. 现货市场 (Spot Market) - In the spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports increased by 2.5 dollars/ton [3]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 13 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - Port inventory was 13.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons week - on - week [3]. - The urea enterprise operating rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points; the daily urea output was 195,100 tons, down 2,800 tons [3]. - Urea exports were 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output of urea was 6.00033 billion tons, up 129,060 tons [3]. 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 39.37%, down 1.25 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 58.55%, down 3.31 percentage points [3]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 140 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 36 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 30,500 tons, down 1,700 tons [3]. Industry News - As of December 17, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. The destocking was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast and Northwest China [3]. - As of December 18, China's urea port sample inventory was 13.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 12.20%. The port collection was in progress smoothly, and some ports received goods successively [3]. 提示关注 (Points to Note) - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output and operating rate on Thursday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After entering December, the reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily. The continuous demand from the high - operating compound fertilizer industry, appropriate replenishment of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some export orders have led to a continuous decline in urea factory inventories last week. In the short term, the inventories may continue to decline slightly. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, with a change of 1; the 1 - 5 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6518. The main contract's open interest is 81993 lots, a decrease of 15767 lots, and the net position of the top 20 is - 14734. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11214, a decrease of 31 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 347.5 dollars/ton and 387.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 197900 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17. The monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%. The melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons from last week, a 4.36% decrease. As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, a 17.14% increase. As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons, a 0.02% increase [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Daily Report 2025-12-04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, driven by the replenishment of previous reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demand. Considering the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of some gas - head enterprises and the continuous advancement of downstream reserve demand, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 1688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - The position of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 209,271 lots, down 282 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 18,433 lots, up 4,195 lots [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 9,353, up 1,588 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1710, 1680, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Henan and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1690 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 357.5 and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] - The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was - 12 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged; the enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the melamine operating rate was 60.8%, down 1.4% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons or 5.38% [2] - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of container shipping, but the container shipping rhythm is still slow [2] - As of December 4, due to the maintenance of some new urea production devices, the domestic urea output continued to decline. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production next week, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production [2] 3.6 View Summary - The output of urea enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, down 31,900 tons or 2.25% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period [2] - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises continued to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase slightly in the short term. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2] 3.7提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

| | | 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 加之部分出口需求的推进，本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，短期考虑到部分气头企业停车带来的供应减 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 量，而下游储备需求继续推进，预计尿素企业库存有望继续小幅下降。UR2601合约短线预计在1660-1700 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 尿素产业日报 2025-12-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. This week, 4 enterprises' plants are planned to stop, and 4 stopped plants may resume production. Considering short - term malfunctions, production is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand was relatively concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers increased month - on - month, and enterprises are gradually scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the short term [3]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Due to the continued advancement of reserve demand and the restocking of downstream terminals such as compound fertilizers, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. Considering the advancement of reserve demand and partial export shipping expectations, the short - term urea inventory still has a slight de - stocking trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1700 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 219,302 lots, down 426 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,309 lots, down 1429 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts were 7887 lots, down 50 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1710 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, - 10 yuan, and 30 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 357.5 US dollars/ton and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 7 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.3. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, with no change; the enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons; the urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5,871,270 tons, up 132,600 tons [3]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the operating rate of melamine was 60.8%, down 1.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [3]. 3.5. Industry News - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. As of November 27, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, with no change. The overall port arrival rhythm was slow, and the port inventory may increase after the end of legal inspection. As of November 27, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3]. 3.6. Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1665 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 245423 | -3667 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31813 | 1338 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7183 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 8 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 367.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 8.2 | 0.3 企业库存(周,万 ...