Economic Data - The US Redbook retail sales increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with a four-week moving average of 6.5%, surpassing the previous value of 6.1%, indicating robust consumer spending [7][9] - March new home sales were annualized at 724,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 7.4%, marking the highest growth rate in 11 months [7][8] - March existing home sales were annualized at 4.02 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%, the lowest growth rate in 28 months [7][8] - Initial jobless claims for the third week of April were 222,000, in line with expectations, with a four-week moving average of 220,000, showing a downward trend [8][11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 2.7, with a 13-week moving average of 2.5, indicating an overall upward trend [8] Market Sentiment - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) reported 398 points, with a seven-day moving average of 418 points, significantly down from a previous high of 703 [12][13] - Retail investor sentiment showed that 55.6% were bearish on the market, while 21.9% were bullish, with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.39, a decrease from the previous value of 0.45 [12][15] - The Fear and Greed Index improved from 'extreme fear' to 'fear', closing at 35 points, with notable improvements in volatility metrics [12][17] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets rose by 3.9% last week, with developed markets up 4.1% and emerging markets up 2.7%, with the US stock market leading globally [16] - Gold's upward momentum has slowed, with a weekly increase of 0.1%, while Bitcoin surged by 11.7%, making it the best-performing asset class for the week [16] Industry Performance - Among 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 32 saw gains, with significant increases in the automotive, semiconductor, and electrical equipment sectors [19] - The software services sector had the highest estimated daily fund strength at approximately $133.5 billion, indicating strong investor interest [26] S&P 500 Valuation - As of now, 180 companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q1 2025 earnings, with overall EPS exceeding expectations by 10.0%, higher than the five-year average of 8.8% and the ten-year average of 6.9% [10] - The S&P 500 PE (TTM) stands at 24.7 times, at the 34.2 percentile, slightly above the ten-year average of 24.5 times [10] - Forward PE increased from approximately 20.0 times to 20.8 times, a rise of about 4.0%, while Forward EPS slightly decreased from $265 to $264, a decline of about 0.4% [10]

市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，于4月18日下降至低点，数值为0.1。本周市场情绪指标在接近0轴处开始向上反弹，回升至0.5，数值较上周五(4/18)上升0.4，模型转多，市场 情绪有所缓和。 本周A股市场提示市场情绪有一定修复，较上周明显发生变化的指标有科创50成交占比、主力买入力量和期权波动率。主力流出速率减缓和VIX指标体现的恐慌程度减弱是本 周市场情绪回升的主要原因。 科创50成交占比、行业涨跌趋势性、主力买入力量和PCR结合VIX，分别代表了市场风险偏好程度下降，市场情绪不确定性增强，主力流出速度 减缓和期权市场恐慌情绪缓和。其他指标维持和上周一致的判断。 资金当前对成长高估值板块观点不确定性较强。 自上周科创50成交占比指标快速下跌至下轨以下后，本周科创50成交占比指标仍在持续下降。本周主力资金持续从科创板块 流出，累计净流出超过32亿人民币。 投资者信心逐渐恢复，市场的活跃度和投资者参与度都有了明显提升。 除了看到主力资金本周流出科创板，主力资金本周在全A仍然呈现净流出的态势，但流出速度较上周有 所减缓，主力流出主力买入力量指标有所回升。从主力资金净流出绝对量看，主力资金本周累计净流出超过370亿 ...