Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: decline; Overall: short - term bearish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased as the US President Trump announced on June 23 that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full cease - fire, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and downward pressure on gold prices. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **View**: Short - term: rise; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: rise; Overall: short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, geopolitical conflicts have eased, and market risk appetite has increased. Although nickel's fundamentals were weak last week, short - term macroeconomic improvement may lead to a rebound in non - ferrous metals and a bottom - up recovery of nickel prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Expect crude oil supply and demand to improve in the near term, with prices oscillating strongly due to rising geopolitical risks, but the upward price space is limited due to OPEC+ long - term production increase and trade - war - dragged demand, so it's advisable to operate cautiously and wait and see [3] - Forecast that the decline of coking coal price may slow down as supply pressure eases slightly, but the current supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains a negative factor for the market [5] - Predict that copper prices have support below due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation, but weak demand restricts price increase, so there's no need to be overly bearish on the market [10] - Anticipate that the lithium carbonate market will mainly decline under the loose fundamentals, although the previous price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment [11][12] - Project that urea will continue to decline, but there may be a limited - height rebound at the low level, depending on export and agricultural demand [13] - Forecast that asphalt will oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it's recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [14][15] - Expect PP to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure but improved commodity sentiment [16] - Predict that plastic will oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure but improved overall commodity sentiment [17][18] - Anticipate that PVC will oscillate at a low level, with high supply and weak demand, but improved commodity sentiment [19] - Forecast that soybean oil futures will oscillate weakly in the short term due to supply uncertainty and inventory build - up [20][21] - Predict that domestic soybean meal will run strongly, and it's advisable to go long on far - month soybean meal at low prices [22] - Anticipate that rebar prices will be suppressed in the short term due to sufficient supply, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction [23][24] - Forecast that hot - rolled coils will face downward pressure in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may improve as production cuts and policies take effect [25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July; U.S. drilling number drops, and production is expected to decline; Canadian wildfires halt 350,000 barrels per day of heavy - oil production; EIA raises 2025 global oil inventory increase forecast from 0.4 to 0.8 barrels per day [3] - Demand: U.S. economic data is better than expected, and the market risk preference rebounds, but the pessimistic expectation of the trade - war's impact on the economy persists, and refined - oil demand and inventory data are poor [3] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the near term, but the upward space is limited [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal customs clearance is normal, but domestic mine and coal - washing plant output has declined for weeks, and the total upstream inventory is at a high level [5] - Demand: Coking enterprises have low profits and weak procurement willingness, and the coke inventory is high; steel mill production may decline slightly, and terminal demand is weak [5] - Outlook: The decline may slow down, and it's in a narrow - range oscillation [5] Copper - Supply: Concentrated copper ore port inventory has decreased significantly, and the supply of copper raw materials is tight; smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses [10] - Demand: China's copper imports have decreased, and domestic demand has weakened; downstream copper product industries' operating rates have declined [10] - Outlook: Copper prices have support below due to the Fed rate - cut expectation, but weak demand restricts the increase [10] Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Supply recovery is accelerating, with increased mica production, resumed factory production, and stable overseas output, and inventory is at a high level [11] - Demand: The terminal market is enthusiastic, but the direct downstream battery sector purchases as needed, and the supporting effect is limited [11] - Outlook: The market will mainly decline under loose fundamentals [11][12] Urea - Supply: Daily production remains high, restricting the upward space of the market [13] - Demand: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and downstream inventory removal has stagnated; the melamine operating rate is declining [13] - Outlook: It will continue to decline but may rebound at a low level, and the rebound height depends on exports and agricultural demand [13] Asphalt - Supply: Last week's operating rate increased by 3.6 percentage points to 31.3%, and the June refinery production plan is to increase [14] - Demand: Downstream road - asphalt operating rate decreased to 25.6%, and overall demand is affected by funds [14] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it's recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15] PP - Supply: Downstream operating rate decreased to 50.01%, and enterprise operating rate decreased to 84%; new production capacity is put into operation, and inventory pressure is high [16] - Demand: U.S. tariffs and propane import restrictions affect downstream exports and raw - material supply; downstream recovery is slow [16] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [16] Plastic - Supply: Operating rate increased to 86.5%, and new production capacity has been put into operation; inventory is at a high level [17][18] - Demand: Downstream operating rate decreased to 39.14%, and demand is weak in the off - season; new orders are limited [17][18] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [17][18] PVC - Supply: Operating rate increased to 78.19%, and supply is relatively high; social inventory is still high [19] - Demand: Downstream operating rate has declined slightly, and demand is weak; Indian policies and the real - estate market affect exports and domestic demand [19] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [19] Soybean Oil - Supply: U.S. soybean growing conditions are good, and domestic soybean crushing volume is at a high level, and inventory is increasing [20][21] - Demand: There's no clear macro - guidance, and the market is worried about future supply [20][21] - Outlook: Futures will oscillate weakly in the short term [20][21] Soybean Meal - Supply: U.S. soybean sowing is almost finished, and domestic soybean inventory and crushing volume have increased; meal inventory has increased [22] - Demand: There's no clear macro - guidance, and the market is worried about future supply [22] - Outlook: The domestic market will run strongly, and it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [22] Rebar - Supply: Weekly production decreased by 5.24% to 207.57 tons due to environmental protection and maintenance, but overall supply is still sufficient [23][24] - Demand: New construction projects and infrastructure progress are slow, and demand is in the off - season; inventory removal is slow [24] - Outlook: Prices will be suppressed in the short term [24] Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply: Weekly production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.65 tons, but the total output is at a high level, and supply pressure persists [25] - Demand: Downstream manufacturing demand is divided, and overall demand is weak; inventory is rising [25] - Outlook: It will face downward pressure in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may improve [25][27]

Group 1 - The issuance of actively managed equity funds is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of funds with large fundraising scales and the average issuance scale reaching a new high for the year [1][2] - The first floating rate funds have entered the market, significantly boosting the issuance heat of actively managed equity funds, with the largest fund raised this year being the Dongfanghong Core Value Mixed Fund at 1.991 billion yuan [2][3] - In June, four actively managed equity funds have raised over 1 billion yuan, indicating a structural recovery in the issuance market [2][3] Group 2 - Market sentiment is expected to continue improving due to the alleviation of external disturbances and the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies [4][6] - The market is focusing on high elasticity sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology growth, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [4][5] - The demand for equity assets is anticipated to increase, leading to further recovery in the issuance of actively managed equity funds [6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound in April, with significant decline in volatility in May, and analysts expect a strong oscillation in June, focusing on liquidity, policy implementation, and economic expectations [1] - The A-share market currently exhibits a "strong reality, weak expectation" characteristic, with improved economic data due to policies like "two new, two heavy," "automobile replacement subsidies," and "consumption vouchers" [1] Economic Indicators - In Q1, the net profit growth rate for all A-shares excluding financials was 3.4%, reversing two years of negative growth, indicating clear fundamental support for the index [1] - However, internal demand remains insufficient, and asset price declines pose constraints on economic recovery [1] - April's PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening month-on-month decline, and recent social financing growth primarily relies on government debt issuance, with new RMB loan scales being relatively small [1] Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to maintain basic data without significant decline, while the third quarter will be a critical period to validate the strength of economic recovery [1] - Previously announced government debt quotas may bottom out in Q3, with new policy measures likely to be introduced, making it a key period for index direction [1] Liquidity and Policy Measures - In May, the central bank implemented a series of monetary policies to provide ample liquidity to the market, with significant policies expected to be released by the Shanghai government during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [2] - The economic data from April and May indicates that US-China trade tensions have not fundamentally impacted China's stable economic development, highlighting the resilience of the economy [2] Long-term Investment Trends - Policies are continuously guiding "long money, long investment," with ongoing updates on insurance fund long-term investment reform trials [3] - The inflow of "long money" is expected to stabilize the market and reduce stock market volatility, with public funds projected to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years [3] - The correlation between A-share valuations and medium to long-term RMB loans is significant, particularly for small-cap indices like the CSI 1000, which are notably influenced by liquidity [3] Investment Preferences - Long-term funds tend to have longer holding periods, lower capital costs, and place greater emphasis on the stability of equity assets, benefiting large-cap broad-based indices and dividend low-volatility themes [4]

Core Insights - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks highlights the importance of bilateral economic relations for both countries and the global economy, emphasizing the need for sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial trade relations [2][7] - The statement indicates a commitment to continued dialogue and cooperation, aiming to address economic concerns through open communication and mutual respect [2][7] Group 1: Short-term Market Impact - The recent joint statement serves as a positive signal, alleviating market sentiment and boosting risk appetite, marking a substantial easing of trade tensions since the "reciprocal tariffs" conflict in April [5][9] - Prior to this, the imposition of tariffs as high as 145% and 125% had nearly frozen bilateral trade, significantly impacting supply chain stability, with China's exports to the US dropping by 21.03% year-on-year in April [5][9] - The announcement of a 90-day suspension of new tariffs and the retention of some lower rates is seen as a "cooling" signal, with the Chinese side led by a Vice Premier, indicating a strong commitment to pragmatic negotiations [5][11] Group 2: Medium-term Structural Challenges - Despite the positive tone of the statement, there remain significant structural disagreements, with tariffs unlikely to see substantial reductions in the short term [12][14] - The US has temporarily suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days while retaining a 10% base tariff, indicating that if the 24% tariff is reinstated, the overall tariff level on China could remain above 50% [12][14] - The ongoing competition between China and the US in technology, supply chains, and security suggests that expectations for a systematic reduction in tariffs similar to 2019 are significantly more challenging [12][14] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost risk appetite in the short term, particularly benefiting sectors like the Hang Seng Technology Index and export-oriented industries [13][14] - Focus on high-growth sectors such as engineering machinery, power equipment, nuclear power, and non-ferrous metals, which are likely to benefit from global manufacturing expansion [14] - The Hang Seng Technology sector is anticipated to gain from both the AI thematic investment and the easing of US-China relations, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [14]