Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation continues. The MA2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 2200 - 2280 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2219 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 693078 lots, up 57587 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 86589 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7834, unchanged [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia is 2130 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the East - Northwest spread is 290 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 201 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 268 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 265 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.57 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.1 dollar [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 39.24 tons, up 5.44 tons; in South China ports is 14.5 tons, up 1.98 tons; the import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 249600 tons, down 53100 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.97%, up 4.91% [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 49.78%, down 2.74%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.36%, up 0.75%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.82%, up 1.47%; the MTBE operating rate is 65.01%, down 2.18%; the olefin operating rate is 82.81%, down 1.09%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 462 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 28.06%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.41%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.52%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.61%, up 0.11% [2] 3.7. Industry News - As of April 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 30.98 tons, down 0.26 tons (0.82%); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 30.27 tons, up 2.83 tons (10.30%); the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 53.74 tons, up 7.42 tons; the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 83.69%, up 0.88% [2] 3.8. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - Zinc market shows strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term sideways movement [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - Shanghai Zinc main contract closing price was 22,550 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1] - LME Zinc 3M electronic trading closing price was 2,654 dollars/ton, up 0.32% [1] Trading Volume - Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 103,421 lots, down 46,370 lots [1] - LME Zinc trading volume was 4,307 lots, down 1,166 lots [1] Open Interest - Shanghai Zinc main contract open interest was 114,582 lots, down 3,301 lots [1] - LME Zinc open interest was 206,210 lots, down 1,121 lots [1] Premiums and Discounts - Shanghai 0 Zinc premium was 165 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M premium was - 35.72 dollars/ton, down 0.99 dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc premium was 455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [1] - Import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc premium was 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc ingot spot import profit and loss was - 60.8 yuan/ton, down 46.49 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01 was 240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc continuous third - month import profit and loss was - 681.26 yuan/ton, up 23.18 yuan/ton [1] Inventories - Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 2,429 tons, down 427 tons [1] - LME Zinc inventory was 177,550 tons, down 1,775 tons [1] Other Prices - 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil tax - included price was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 31,125 tons, up 1,600 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy price was 31,125 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc oxide ≥99.7% price was 21,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News and Trend News - US economic data was poor, US Treasury yields hit a three - week low. US dollar index rebounded; British pound fell from a three - year high; offshore RMB once rose more than 300 points and broke through 7.26, hitting a more than three - week high [2] Trend - Zinc trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Report title: Zinc: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Oscillating Adjustment [1] - Date: April 28, 2025 [1] 2. Market Data - **Prices and Volume**: - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,750 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 2.20% [2]. - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 203,216 lots, an increase of 22,864 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 5,473 lots, an increase of 471 lots [2]. - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 122,427 lots, a decrease of 2,657 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 205,242 lots, an increase of 1,055 lots [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: - The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 175 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -34.73 dollars/ton, down 1.3 dollars/ton [2]. - The spot premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 255 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -160.33 yuan/ton, down 53.36 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between ZN00 and ZN01 was 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc continuous - three contract was -759.37 yuan/ton, up 6.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: - The futures inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 3,185 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 180,050 tons, a decrease of 2,250 tons [2]. - The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 29,575 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons [2]. - **Related Product Prices**: - The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 29,575 yuan/ton, down 2,125 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. News and Forecast - **Macro News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles and releasing incremental reserve policies as needed. The signal of "employment is the bottom line" was released [3]. - **Company News**: On April 25, 2025, Hindustan Zinc, the world's third - largest zinc producer, reported a jump in fourth - quarter profits due to increased production and rising zinc prices. The domestic zinc price in the March quarter rose about 17.5% due to increased demand from the Indian construction and manufacturing industries. The company expects domestic zinc demand to reach 926,000 tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, and its metal production in the March quarter reached a record high of 310,000 tons [3]. - **Price Forecast**: Despite the expected supply surplus, zinc and lead prices are expected to remain resilient [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4]