1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the "strong reality + weak expectation" scenario, copper prices lack a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand may lead to pressure on the real demand side in Q3. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to have a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity [2]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Otherwise, the price center may shift downward. The long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to have a weak - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the market. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand expectation, the strategy is to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term range. The strategy is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The price of other copper products also shows different degrees of increase or decrease [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,530 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 119,550 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,650 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [2]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory was 12.96 million tons, down 12.25% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory was 6.43 million tons, up 7.71% week - on - week [1]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.40 million tons, up 1.31% week - on - week; LME inventory was 33.8 million tons, down 0.59% day - on - day [2]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.78 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week; LME inventory was 12.3 million tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [7]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory was 25,693 tons, up 0.30% week - on - week; LME inventory was 203,928 tons, down 0.11% day - on - day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.42 million tons, up 0.64% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts were 11.29 million tons, down 0.32% day - on - day [13]. - **Tin**: SHEF inventory (weekly) was 6965 tons, down 2.00% week - on - week; social inventory was 8845 tons, down 1.12% week - on - week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total lithium carbonate inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear and smooth trend. Fundamental realities limit price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices will likely fluctuate. Q3 may face pressure on the real demand side, and the US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum prices are expected to have high - level wide - range oscillations, with the main reference range of 19600 - 20600 [4]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the mine - end growth rate fails to meet expectations and downstream consumption shows super - expected performance, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. In a pessimistic scenario, the price center may shift down. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach in the medium - to - long - term, with the main reference range of 21500 - 23000 [6]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to have a weakly oscillating adjustment, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upward price space [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly, with the main operating range of 12300 - 13000. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm [10]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but considering the pessimistic demand expectations, a short - selling approach can be taken at 260000 - 265000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 10.87%. The import loss widened to 2522 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and imports increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes, with SHFE warehouse receipts dropping by 94.43% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 21950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The import loss widened to 643 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 119500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The production cost of electrolytic nickel from different sources decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35350 tons, and imports increased by 8.18% to 8832 tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons. Imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 261800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons. Multiple inventories decreased [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 20050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of lithium - bearing ore decreased slightly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72080 tons, and demand increased by 4.83% to 93960 tons. Total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile state, with the subsequent logic switching between strong reality and weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are changing and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Steel mill maintenance has increased, leading to a continuous decline in the terminal consumption of iron ore, weakening the positive effects on the demand side. Overseas miners are actively shipping, resulting in a large supply pressure. The fundamentals of iron ore are continuously weakening, putting pressure on the ore price. - The relative positive factors are that the demand remains at a high level with good real - world performance, and the futures price is deeply discounted, resulting in significant downward resistance. The subsequent logic will still switch between strong reality and weak expectations, and the ore price is expected to maintain a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production [2].

Report Title - 202505 Crude Oil Outlook Report: Superposition of Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, and Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance [1] Report Date - May 21, 2025 [2] Report Author - Xiao Yu, Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016296 [2] 1. Review Summary 1.1 4 - Month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - **4 - Month Main View**: In a sharply deteriorating macro - atmosphere, OPEC+ not only did not resist but accelerated production increases. The $70 support level for Brent crude oil became an insurmountable resistance level. With continued macro - turmoil, market confidence was increasingly fragile, and a bearish view was maintained [7]. - **Market Review**: Sino - US trade negotiation results drove a limited market rebound, and subsequent changes in US - Iran negotiations were the main factor causing short - term oil price fluctuations [8]. 1.2 5 - Month Main View - **Fundamentals**: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectations, with a long - term bearish outlook. OPEC+ accelerating production increases may become the norm, and the relationship between US and Iranian crude oil is the biggest short - term market disturbance factor [9]. - **Non - fundamentals**: The US has entered a general tariff suspension period, but future pressure remains [9]. - **May Conclusion**: With OPEC+'s signal of accelerating production increases becoming clearer and long - term macro - pressure still existing, oil prices tend to be weak in the medium and long term. However, currently, crude oil is in a seasonally strong reality state, and with the outcome of Iranian crude oil still to be determined, the short - term market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [9]. 2. Crude Oil Market Analysis 2.1 Near - Month Spreads Indicate Tight Spot Supply and Demand - International crude oil market spreads are above the 0 axis, indicating that current supply and demand can still match. Current market negative factors are mainly concentrated in expectations, such as OPEC+ likely to continue accelerating production increases after July or a possible slowdown in macro - economic growth due to trade frictions [14]. 2.2 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Forward Curve - Although crude oil is in a contango structure in the longer term, the near - end is in a back structure. Near - end premiums mean that downstream needs to pay an additional premium to obtain spot goods. Even at the recent low point of crude oil prices on the morning of May 12, the Nike - shaped forward structure was maintained, reflecting strong reality and weak expectations [17]. 2.3 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in Institutional Monthly Reports - Three major institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) made different adjustments to demand in their May reports but still had a long - term bearish view of the oil market. Most reports believe that non - OPEC+ supply growth has exceeded global demand growth, and OPEC+ is eager to accelerate production increases [18]. 2.4 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Seasonal Peak Demand Period - The third quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for crude oil. Seasonal demand growth in Q3 can slightly offset the negative impact of supply growth. It is expected that the strong reality in the crude oil market will gradually weaken in the middle of the third quarter, and the forward structure will gradually change to a full contango structure [21]. 2.5 Large - Scale Production Increases Benefit Saudi Arabia in the Long Run - Saudi Arabia's economy is closely related to oil prices. Usually, it stabilizes oil prices, but in extreme cases, it promotes large - scale production increases to reshape the market structure. The 2020 large - scale production increase allowed OPEC+ to enjoy high oil prices for nearly 4 years [24]. 2.6 OPEC+ Current Situation and Possible Actions - OPEC+ is facing external pressure from non - OPEC+ production increases and internal contradictions such as member over - production. If internal problems cannot be resolved, it may turn to a unified external stance. The current macro - instability provides an opportunity for production increases [25]. 2.7 OPEC+ Production Increase Plans and Intentions - OPEC+ continued to accelerate production increases in May, and the production quota in June was equivalent to the original plan for October. OPEC+ may quickly increase production before October and gradually cancel voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day if member compliance does not improve. This strategy may be led by Saudi Arabia to gain a larger market share [28]. 2.8 OPEC+ Policy Timeline in 2025 - OPEC+ maintained the original production increase plan on March 3, causing oil prices to fall below $70/barrel. The compensatory production cuts on March 20 showed its willingness to support oil prices. The acceleration of production increases on April 3 was puzzling, and the decision on May 3 clearly showed the organization's determination to increase production [31]. 2.9 Reference: Oil Prices Required to Hit Main Competitors - The average operating cost of old wells in the US is $41/barrel, and that of new wells is $65/barrel. Oil prices below $65/barrel will seriously affect US crude oil production growth, and below $41/barrel will affect existing production [37]. 2.11 Attention to Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance - Iran is willing to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions to lift economic sanctions, but there are still differences between the US and Iran. There are new variables such as Israel's possible attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The outcome of US - Iran negotiations is expected to be limitedly optimistic [43][45]. 2.12 Complex Middle East Situation - Under the combined influence of long - term US sanctions and the Palestine - Israel conflict, Iran's regional influence has been temporarily weakened. There are complex relationships among countries in the Middle East [47]. 2.13 Persistent Macro - Pressure - US confidence and retail sales data have declined, and manufacturing is in a downward trend. Although CPI has decreased, the Fed refuses to cut interest rates due to potential tariff war impacts. The US is in a tariff suspension period, but tariffs may resume after the suspension, adding pressure on oil prices during OPEC+'s production increase period [49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The iron ore market shows a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, with demand falling from a high level and supply remaining high and expected to rise. However, due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. Attention should be paid to the change in hot metal production [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at the MA10 line [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is starting to decline, but the decline is relatively limited, still providing some support for ore prices, yet the upward momentum is weakening. - Port arrivals have dropped to a low level again, leading to a decrease in port inventories. However, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly, reaching the second - highest weekly level this year, and subsequent arrivals are expected to rise. Domestic ore production is also active, and ore supply remains at a relatively high level. - Currently, iron ore demand is falling from a high level, while supply remains high and is expected to increase. The supply - demand pattern is weakening, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large, resulting in a volatile trend for ore prices. Attention should be paid to the change in hot metal production [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market presents a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the ore price continues to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively: short - term is fluctuating, medium - term is fluctuating, and intraday is weakly fluctuating. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The high - level ore demand has slightly declined, providing some support for the ore price, but the concern of reaching the peak has materialized with a weak positive effect. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is also active, resulting in a large supply pressure. Supported by the logic of discount repair, the ore price has rebounded from the low level, but the demand is approaching the peak and the supply remains high, so the fundamental expectation is weakening [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Regarding iron ore 2509, the short - term trend within a week is fluctuating, the medium - term trend from two weeks to one month is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the situation of strong reality and weak expectation with the ore price continuing to fluctuate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The high - level demand has slightly declined, which still supports the ore price, but the concern of reaching the peak has been realized with a weak positive effect. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level, and domestic ore production is also active, leading to large supply pressure. Supported by the discount repair logic, the ore price has rebounded from the low level. However, the demand is approaching the peak and the supply remains high, so the fundamental expectation is weakening, and the iron - water change should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation continues. The MA2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 2200 - 2280 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2219 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 693078 lots, up 57587 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 86589 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7834, unchanged [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia is 2130 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the East - Northwest spread is 290 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 201 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 268 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 265 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.57 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.1 dollar [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 39.24 tons, up 5.44 tons; in South China ports is 14.5 tons, up 1.98 tons; the import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 249600 tons, down 53100 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.97%, up 4.91% [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 49.78%, down 2.74%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.36%, up 0.75%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.82%, up 1.47%; the MTBE operating rate is 65.01%, down 2.18%; the olefin operating rate is 82.81%, down 1.09%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 462 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 28.06%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.41%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.52%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.61%, up 0.11% [2] 3.7. Industry News - As of April 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 30.98 tons, down 0.26 tons (0.82%); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 30.27 tons, up 2.83 tons (10.30%); the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 53.74 tons, up 7.42 tons; the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 83.69%, up 0.88% [2] 3.8. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - Zinc market shows strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term sideways movement [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - Shanghai Zinc main contract closing price was 22,550 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1] - LME Zinc 3M electronic trading closing price was 2,654 dollars/ton, up 0.32% [1] Trading Volume - Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 103,421 lots, down 46,370 lots [1] - LME Zinc trading volume was 4,307 lots, down 1,166 lots [1] Open Interest - Shanghai Zinc main contract open interest was 114,582 lots, down 3,301 lots [1] - LME Zinc open interest was 206,210 lots, down 1,121 lots [1] Premiums and Discounts - Shanghai 0 Zinc premium was 165 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M premium was - 35.72 dollars/ton, down 0.99 dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc premium was 455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [1] - Import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc premium was 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc ingot spot import profit and loss was - 60.8 yuan/ton, down 46.49 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01 was 240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc continuous third - month import profit and loss was - 681.26 yuan/ton, up 23.18 yuan/ton [1] Inventories - Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 2,429 tons, down 427 tons [1] - LME Zinc inventory was 177,550 tons, down 1,775 tons [1] Other Prices - 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil tax - included price was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 31,125 tons, up 1,600 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy price was 31,125 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc oxide ≥99.7% price was 21,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News and Trend News - US economic data was poor, US Treasury yields hit a three - week low. US dollar index rebounded; British pound fell from a three - year high; offshore RMB once rose more than 300 points and broke through 7.26, hitting a more than three - week high [2] Trend - Zinc trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Report title: Zinc: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Oscillating Adjustment [1] - Date: April 28, 2025 [1] 2. Market Data - **Prices and Volume**: - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,750 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 2.20% [2]. - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 203,216 lots, an increase of 22,864 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 5,473 lots, an increase of 471 lots [2]. - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 122,427 lots, a decrease of 2,657 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 205,242 lots, an increase of 1,055 lots [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: - The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 175 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -34.73 dollars/ton, down 1.3 dollars/ton [2]. - The spot premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 255 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -160.33 yuan/ton, down 53.36 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between ZN00 and ZN01 was 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc continuous - three contract was -759.37 yuan/ton, up 6.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: - The futures inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 3,185 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 180,050 tons, a decrease of 2,250 tons [2]. - The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 29,575 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons [2]. - **Related Product Prices**: - The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 29,575 yuan/ton, down 2,125 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. News and Forecast - **Macro News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles and releasing incremental reserve policies as needed. The signal of "employment is the bottom line" was released [3]. - **Company News**: On April 25, 2025, Hindustan Zinc, the world's third - largest zinc producer, reported a jump in fourth - quarter profits due to increased production and rising zinc prices. The domestic zinc price in the March quarter rose about 17.5% due to increased demand from the Indian construction and manufacturing industries. The company expects domestic zinc demand to reach 926,000 tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, and its metal production in the March quarter reached a record high of 310,000 tons [3]. - **Price Forecast**: Despite the expected supply surplus, zinc and lead prices are expected to remain resilient [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4]