1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. It is expected that zinc prices will stabilize and adjust. Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. The demand side is affected by the real - estate sector, but there are some bright spots in the automobile and home - appliance sectors. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,270 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is expected to open. The traditional peak season effect is dull, and the real - estate sector is a drag, while the automobile and home - appliance sectors have some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has continued to decline. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA60 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the price of Shanghai Zinc futures rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 1.02% from September 25, 2025. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 3,014 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.08% from October 3, 2025 [8]. - **Net Position and Total Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 65 lots, an increase of 8,155 lots from September 25, 2025. The total position of Shanghai Zinc was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 23,090 lots or 9.68% from September 25, 2025 [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of October 10, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,340 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton or 1.73% from September 25, 2025. The spot discount was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 66.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.62 US dollars/ton from October 2, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons or 4.65% from October 3, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase of 8,940 tons or 9.12% from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 136,100 tons, an increase of 800 tons or 0.59% from September 25, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In July 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0762 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. In August 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 467,301.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% and a year - on - year increase of 30.83% [31][32]. - **Supply - side - Global**: According to ILZSG data, in July 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75,300 tons or 6.7%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,100 tons or 0.87%. The global refined zinc surplus was 30,200 tons, compared with a deficit of 35,000 tons in the same period last year. According to WBMS, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [37][38]. - **Supply - side - Domestic**: In August 2025, the zinc output was 651,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc output was 4.836 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In August 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.59%, and the export volume was 310.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.57% [41][44]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to August 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of domestic major enterprises was 853,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.36%. In August 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 42,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%, and the export volume was 335,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%. The housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94%. The funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 6.431803 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 885.679 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: In August 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year [58]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In August 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator output was 70.1891 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 199.6462 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%. The production volume was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [65].

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 09 月 26 日 锌：下方支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 国 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22045 | 0.85% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2922.5 | 1.14% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 158280 | 48547 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10392 | 1957 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 131286 | -10581 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 217087 | 1804 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -55 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 40 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The low PPI in the US since June has strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The domestic fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it will take time for the consumer side to improve. The inflection point of social inventory reduction has not appeared, and Shanghai zinc fluctuates in the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US PPI hit a new low since June, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing the US dollar to fall. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The 09 - 10 spread was -65 yuan/ton. In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. The refined zinc output in September was slightly adjusted down but is still expected to be above 600,000 tons. The logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the galvanizing start - up rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The inventory in Tianjin has decreased slightly, while the inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has increased. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions has increased by 0.21 million tons to 15.42 million tons. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons. The concern about overseas refined zinc supply has caused a spot premium, and the 0 - 3B has strengthened to $23.01/ton, supporting LME zinc [7]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,265 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,325 - 22,385 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,195 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,205 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first trading period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Anning was at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, and Jiulong was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,150 - 22,240 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,200 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,110 - 22,170 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,980 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 40 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Zijin was at a discount of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated at a low level, with a weekly change of +0.07% and an amplitude of 1.76%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the expansion speed of the US ISM Services PMI reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and still high prices. The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed down significantly to 54,000 people, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with the obvious increase in sulfuric acid prices, the profits of smelters have been further repaired, and the production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various places have been gradually released, and the resumption of production of previously overhauled capacities has accelerated the supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not large, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has shown a stable and rising trend. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to a low level, but downstream enterprises have maintained the action of purchasing on demand, with a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has slightly increased at a low level. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, which provides support for zinc prices [4]. - Technically, the position has increased while the price has fallen, and the short - selling sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,000 mark [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long lightly on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated at a low level this week, with a weekly change of +0.07% and an amplitude of 1.76%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic indicators in the US show mixed signals. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is still in the off - season transition. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere is rising [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, Shanghai Zinc futures prices were weak, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.07% from August 29, 2025. As of September 4, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 2,838 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton or 1.83% from August 29, 2025 [7]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Traders**: As of September 5, 2025, the net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai Zinc was - 11,394 lots, a decrease of 3,473 lots from August 29, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 226,104 lots, an increase of 2,413 lots or 1.08% from August 29, 2025 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of September 5, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025 [15]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,060 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.18% from August 29, 2025. The spot discount was 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of September 4, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was 16.21 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.51 US dollars/ton from August 28, 2025 [21]. - **Inventories**: As of September 4, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 54,750 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons or 5.6% from August 28, 2025. As of September 5, 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 87,032 tons, an increase of 1,052 tons or 1.22% from last week. As of September 4, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 138,300 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons or 6.47% from August 28, 2025 [24]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In June 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0814 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [30]. - **Supply Side - Global Refined Zinc Supply**: According to ILZSG data, in June 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26,300 tons or 2.22%; global refined zinc consumption was 1.1837 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31,100 tons or 2.7%; the global refined zinc gap was 27,200 tons, compared with a surplus of 30,200 tons in the same period last year. According to the WBMS report, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [35][36]. - **Supply Side - Refined Zinc Production**: In July 2025, zinc production was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [39]. - **Supply Side - Refined Zinc Imports**: In July 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%; the export volume of refined zinc was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [42]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to July 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.92%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%; the export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [45]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [50][51]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [56]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In July 2025, refrigerator production was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator production was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, air - conditioner production was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [60]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In July 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [63].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Shanghai zinc led the decline in non - ferrous metals. The main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%. It showed increased volume and open interest, with open interest increasing by 14,140 lots to 118,873 lots. The net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in total open interest increased by 6,418 lots. The fundamentals changed little, with zinc ore processing fees rising continuously and zinc ingot production remaining at a high level. The demand side was supported by policies but was weak in the short term. Production restrictions in North China suppressed galvanized consumption. The pressure of supply - demand surplus was reflected in inventory. Social inventory increased by 0.26 million tons to 14.89 million tons on Thursday. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, the lowest level since May 2023, with a 0 - 3 spread of B18.78. Despite the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and continuous de - stocking at LME, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc could not resonate. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term and may test the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,100 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 21,970 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan or 0.79%, with an open interest of 8,355 lots, down 1,255 lots; for SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,240 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%, with an open interest of 118,873 lots, up 14,140 lots; for SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,280 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,330 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,010 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest of 70,099 lots, up 3,819 lots [7] 2. Industry News - On September 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was 22,120 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 21,910 - 22,110 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par to the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was about 21,980 - 22,170 yuan/ton. Regular brands were quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery, Hualian/Jiulong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton for delivery, and Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 21,930 - 22,170 yuan/ton, that of Zijin was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,880 - 22,090 yuan/ton. Huludao was quoted at 22,570 yuan/ton. Ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Zijin was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Tianjin market was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton to Shanghai market [8] - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,910 - 22,155 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at par to Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the first period, holders quoted a discount of 90 - 45 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, Feilong, and Lanxing; in the second period, the discount was 90 - 55 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in million tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - **Net Positions and Total Positions**: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - **Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc**: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with reduced positions [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,780 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,649 dollars/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 111,405 lots, an increase of 19,848 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,815 lots, an increase of 38 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 110,868 lots, an increase of 5,745 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 209,914 lots, an increase of 1,944 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 24.65 dollars/ton, up 2.24 dollars/ton. The import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 7,719 tons, down 1,024 tons; LME zinc inventory was 125,900 tons, down 325 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 33,400 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [1] News - Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar without mentioning an attack on energy infrastructure. Trump thanked Iran for "advance notice" and said Iran's response was "very weak", causing a plunge in crude oil prices. Trump said that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire to be implemented in stages, and Iranian officials confirmed the acceptance of the cease - fire to the media. Israeli media reported that Israel informed Iran that it sought to end the conflict within "a few days" [2] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, with the range of [- 2,2], representing a neutral view [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to below 150,000 tons. The TC this week remained flat compared with last week. The zinc mine output in China will increase seasonally from May to June, and the processing fee still has room to rise. The demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the easing of tariff policies has limited boost to zinc downstream. The spot market's concern about smelter maintenance has eased, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the expectation of mine - end increment still exists, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and a short - position allocation strategy should be adopted [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures (2506, 2507, 2508) are presented. For example, the 2507 contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%, and the open interest increased by 1,439 to 123,007 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract showed a decline. The LME zinc inventory decreased significantly. The TC remained stable, and the zinc mine output is expected to increase seasonally. The demand side is in the transition period, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions**: On May 28, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions are reported. In the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,865 - 22,970 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, it was 22,875 - 22,980 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, it was 22,790 - 22,930 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, it was 22,790 - 22,965 yuan/ton. Different brands have different premium quotes relative to different contracts [8][9]. - **Premium Changes**: The premium quotes of different brands in different regions and trading periods are detailed. For example, in the Shanghai market, the second - trading - period premium of ordinary domestic zinc to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, the premium of 0 zinc to the 2506 contract was 200 - 230 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2507 contract was 445 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report mentions various data sources such as Wind and SMM, and shows figures related to the zinc market, including the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE's inter - month spread, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided text [13][15].

Group 1 - Report Title: Zinc: Refinery Disturbances on the Rise, but Sustainability May Be Limited [1] - Analyst: Mo Xiaoxiong, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019413, Email: moxiaoxiong@gtht.com [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,185 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - London Zinc 3M Electronic Disk Closing Price: 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30% [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Trading Volume: 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots [1] - London Zinc Trading Volume: 8,813 lots, an increase of 488 lots [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Open Interest: 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots [1] - London Zinc Open Interest: 212,114 lots, a decrease of 866 lots [1] - Shanghai 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M Premium: -23.51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.01 US dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc Premium: 370 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Import Bill of Lading Premium: 150 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Ingot Spot Import Profit and Loss: -604.23 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.22 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01: 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Continuous Three Import Profit and Loss: -1,071.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.68 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Futures Inventory: 1,774 tons, unchanged [1] - LME Zinc Inventory: 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - 1.0mm Hot - Dipped Galvanized Coil Tax - Included Price: 4,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 73,325 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 Zinc Alloy Price: 73,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,725 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Oxide ≥99.7% Price: 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - News: After Trump postponed 50% tariffs, the EU said that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance quickly." The trade commissioner said on Monday that he had a "good call" with US officials [2] - Zinc Trend Intensity: 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]