Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - **Net Positions and Total Positions**: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - **Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc**: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with reduced positions [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,780 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,649 dollars/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 111,405 lots, an increase of 19,848 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,815 lots, an increase of 38 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 110,868 lots, an increase of 5,745 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 209,914 lots, an increase of 1,944 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 24.65 dollars/ton, up 2.24 dollars/ton. The import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 7,719 tons, down 1,024 tons; LME zinc inventory was 125,900 tons, down 325 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 33,400 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [1] News - Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar without mentioning an attack on energy infrastructure. Trump thanked Iran for "advance notice" and said Iran's response was "very weak", causing a plunge in crude oil prices. Trump said that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire to be implemented in stages, and Iranian officials confirmed the acceptance of the cease - fire to the media. Israeli media reported that Israel informed Iran that it sought to end the conflict within "a few days" [2] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, with the range of [- 2,2], representing a neutral view [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to below 150,000 tons. The TC this week remained flat compared with last week. The zinc mine output in China will increase seasonally from May to June, and the processing fee still has room to rise. The demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the easing of tariff policies has limited boost to zinc downstream. The spot market's concern about smelter maintenance has eased, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the expectation of mine - end increment still exists, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and a short - position allocation strategy should be adopted [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures (2506, 2507, 2508) are presented. For example, the 2507 contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%, and the open interest increased by 1,439 to 123,007 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract showed a decline. The LME zinc inventory decreased significantly. The TC remained stable, and the zinc mine output is expected to increase seasonally. The demand side is in the transition period, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions**: On May 28, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions are reported. In the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,865 - 22,970 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, it was 22,875 - 22,980 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, it was 22,790 - 22,930 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, it was 22,790 - 22,965 yuan/ton. Different brands have different premium quotes relative to different contracts [8][9]. - **Premium Changes**: The premium quotes of different brands in different regions and trading periods are detailed. For example, in the Shanghai market, the second - trading - period premium of ordinary domestic zinc to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, the premium of 0 zinc to the 2506 contract was 200 - 230 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2507 contract was 445 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report mentions various data sources such as Wind and SMM, and shows figures related to the zinc market, including the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE's inter - month spread, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided text [13][15].

Group 1 - Report Title: Zinc: Refinery Disturbances on the Rise, but Sustainability May Be Limited [1] - Analyst: Mo Xiaoxiong, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019413, Email: moxiaoxiong@gtht.com [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,185 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - London Zinc 3M Electronic Disk Closing Price: 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30% [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Trading Volume: 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots [1] - London Zinc Trading Volume: 8,813 lots, an increase of 488 lots [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Open Interest: 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots [1] - London Zinc Open Interest: 212,114 lots, a decrease of 866 lots [1] - Shanghai 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M Premium: -23.51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.01 US dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc Premium: 370 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Import Bill of Lading Premium: 150 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Ingot Spot Import Profit and Loss: -604.23 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.22 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01: 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Continuous Three Import Profit and Loss: -1,071.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.68 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Futures Inventory: 1,774 tons, unchanged [1] - LME Zinc Inventory: 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - 1.0mm Hot - Dipped Galvanized Coil Tax - Included Price: 4,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 73,325 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 Zinc Alloy Price: 73,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,725 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Oxide ≥99.7% Price: 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - News: After Trump postponed 50% tariffs, the EU said that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance quickly." The trade commissioner said on Monday that he had a "good call" with US officials [2] - Zinc Trend Intensity: 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is under pressure at the upper level [1] - China's social retail sales growth slowed down in April, industrial added - value increased, fixed - asset investment had a low overall growth rate, and real estate showed a pull - back feature [2] - The zinc trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,455 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,686 dollars/ton, down 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 126,096 lots, an increase of 7,907 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 5,141 lots, a decrease of 872 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 85,560 lots, a decrease of 8,786 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 223,679 lots, a decrease of 4,336 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 230 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 16.15 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1,701 tons, a decrease of 474 tons; LME zinc inventory was 160,800 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - China's social retail sales in April increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1%, the fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4%, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is short - term macro support for zinc. The US inflation has cooled, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021, but "New Fed Wire" warns that the tariff impact on inflation will appear in the next few months [1][2] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,325 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,669 dollars/ton, up 0.51% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 170,560 lots, down 59,350; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 6,024 lots, down 689 [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 112,035 lots, down 5,995; the open interest of LME Zinc was 220,039 lots, up 1,926 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 330 yuan/ton, down 100; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 27.37 dollars/ton, down 1.24 [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 1,600 tons, down 303; LME Zinc inventory was 167,950 tons, down 1,900 [1] - **Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,220 yuan/ton, up 25; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 100 [1] 3.2 News - US inflation has cooled, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021. "New Fed Wire" warns that the tariff impact on inflation will appear in the next few months [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, with the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral trend [2]

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Oil prices declined weakly during the domestic holiday. Brent 07 contract dropped 3.8% compared to the closing on April 30. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue in July. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Precious metals fluctuated widely during the May Day holiday. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but it's advisable to wait for a pullback before layout [3]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. The 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil spot is at a discount, and the ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil spot shows a strong spread [21]. - Asphalt is expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. However, with improved supply - demand, the BU crack spread is expected to be volatile and strong [22]. - LPG has support in the overseas market due to chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure as PDH plants enter maintenance. The price is expected to be volatile [23]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated during the holiday. LME copper inventories dropped to 197,700 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased to 146,500 short tons. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum prices may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range due to uncertain demand in the off - season [5]. - Alumina production has decreased, but capacity may resume. The price is expected to be volatile, and it's advisable to short on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are weak. With expected imports and weak downstream consumption in the off - season, it's advisable to short on rallies [7]. - Lead prices are weak due to high inventories. The spot import window may open after the holiday, and the price is expected to range between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel prices are at the end of a rebound. Observe for new short - building opportunities [9]. - Tin prices declined due to weak Korean manufacturing and concerns about demand. Hold short positions against 265,000 [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a downward channel. Hold short positions as supply is elastic and inventories are increasing [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure. Supply - demand structure is poor with slow production resumption and weak demand in the photovoltaic and organic silicon industries [12]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to follow the downward trend of the photovoltaic industry. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but inventories are rising slightly [13]. Group 3: Ferrous Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are volatile. Rebar demand improved, and inventories decreased. Hot - rolled coil supply - demand stabilized, and inventories continued to decline. Pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy implementation [14]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. Supply is increasing seasonally, and domestic port inventories are rising. Pay attention to the pressure when iron - water production peaks [15]. - Coke's second price increase was rejected. Inventories remain high, and pay attention to steel exports [16]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Production is gradually recovering, but inventories are high, and downstream procurement is for rigid demand [17]. - Silicomanganese prices are under pressure. Inventories are increasing, and it's advisable to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, but inventories are rising. Short on rallies [19]. Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices may decline after the holiday. Supply is sufficient, and pay attention to export dynamics [24]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [25]. - Styrene prices face increasing supply - demand contradictions. Costs are weakening, and production is expected to increase while demand is weak [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are volatile and weak. Demand is weak, and inventories increased during the holiday, but supply pressure may ease with more maintenance [27]. - PVC and caustic soda prices: PVC may be low - level volatile due to weak domestic demand. Caustic soda's profitability improved, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PX and PTA prices are driven by oil prices. Supply is contracting, but polyester industry's centralized production cuts are a potential risk [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are weak. Supply is temporarily contracting, but short - term imports are high, and the price is affected by oil prices [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials. Pay attention to trade frictions and terminal orders after the holiday [30]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are volatile. The US soybean planting season is important. The domestic supply pattern will shift from tight to loose. Soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic soybean supply pattern will change [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: The supply of rapeseed meal may ease in the long - term. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [36]. - Corn prices are volatile. Port inventory pressure decreased, and downstream starch production increased. Pay attention to market divergence [38]. - Hog prices are stable during the holiday. Future supply is expected to increase, and pay attention to the decline in spot prices [39]. - Egg prices are expected to be weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand will be weak in the off - season and during the rainy season [40]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rebounded, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and external demand is under pressure [41]. - Sugar prices are volatile. Brazil's new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and pay attention to weather in Guangxi [42]. - Apple prices are volatile. Spot sales are good, and inventory is low. Pay attention to new - season production [43]. Group 6: Others - Container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile and weak. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract is affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks [20]. - Wood prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - Pulp prices are weak. Inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The fundamental situation remains weak [45]. - Stock index futures may recover in the short - term following the improvement of global risk appetite. The market style may shift to technology - growth [46]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. Manufacturing expansion slowed, and risk appetite recovered [47].

Group 1: Report Core View - Zinc market shows strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term sideways movement [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - Shanghai Zinc main contract closing price was 22,550 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1] - LME Zinc 3M electronic trading closing price was 2,654 dollars/ton, up 0.32% [1] Trading Volume - Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 103,421 lots, down 46,370 lots [1] - LME Zinc trading volume was 4,307 lots, down 1,166 lots [1] Open Interest - Shanghai Zinc main contract open interest was 114,582 lots, down 3,301 lots [1] - LME Zinc open interest was 206,210 lots, down 1,121 lots [1] Premiums and Discounts - Shanghai 0 Zinc premium was 165 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M premium was - 35.72 dollars/ton, down 0.99 dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc premium was 455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [1] - Import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc premium was 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc ingot spot import profit and loss was - 60.8 yuan/ton, down 46.49 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01 was 240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc continuous third - month import profit and loss was - 681.26 yuan/ton, up 23.18 yuan/ton [1] Inventories - Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 2,429 tons, down 427 tons [1] - LME Zinc inventory was 177,550 tons, down 1,775 tons [1] Other Prices - 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil tax - included price was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 31,125 tons, up 1,600 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy price was 31,125 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc oxide ≥99.7% price was 21,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News and Trend News - US economic data was poor, US Treasury yields hit a three - week low. US dollar index rebounded; British pound fell from a three - year high; offshore RMB once rose more than 300 points and broke through 7.26, hitting a more than three - week high [2] Trend - Zinc trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the zinc market, stating that zinc is in a range - bound consolidation. The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 2.20% [1]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 149,791 lots, a decrease of 53,425 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 5,473 lots, an increase of 471 lots. The position of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 117,883 lots, a decrease of 4,544 lots; the position of LME Zinc was 207,331 lots, an increase of 2,089 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 165 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The LME CASH - 3M premium was - 34.73 dollars/ton, down 1.3 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures was 2,856 tons, a decrease of 329 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 179,325 tons, a decrease of 725 tons [1]. News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and the US have not conducted consultations or negotiations on tariff issues [2].