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锌:关注LME库存
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on zinc, suggesting to pay attention to LME zinc inventory, and the zinc trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,019.5 dollars/ton, up 0.87%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 164,360 lots, an increase of 62,086 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,135 lots, an increase of 182 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 124,740 lots, a decrease of 7,952 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the premium of LME CASH - 3M was 338.74 dollars/ton, an increase of 43.74 dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -5,664.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 247.52 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 65,529 tons, an increase of 320 tons; LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, a decrease of 600 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 9,850 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 11,581 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,183 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [1] News - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th, with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng leading the Chinese delegation [2] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and the goal of achieving significant leaps in economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [2][3] Trend Strength - The zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]
锌:内外分化
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:25
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report focuses on the zinc market, showing an internal - external differentiation situation. The trend strength of zinc is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,940 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,940.5 dollars/ton, down 0.29% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 91,938 lots, a decrease of 32,328 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,267 lots, a decrease of 7,005 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 87,075 lots, a decrease of 2,837 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 224,550 lots, an increase of 749 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was 129.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,466 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons; LME zinc inventory was 38,300 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,200 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,095 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [1]. News The US intends to extend the suspension period of tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China delaying the implementation of rare - earth export controls. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated its stance on rare - earth export controls and Sino - US economic and trade issues [1].
锌:下方支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:00
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - There is no clear core viewpoint explicitly stated in the content. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 22,045 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,922.5 dollars/ton, up 1.14% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 158,280 lots, an increase of 48,547 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 10,392 lots, an increase of 1,957 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 131,286 lots, a decrease of 10,581 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 217,087 lots, an increase of 1,804 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -55 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the premium of LME CASH - 3M was 40 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures was 56,583 tons, a decrease of 774 tons; the inventory of LME Zinc was 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1]. News - The annualized quarterly rate of the US GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years. The PCE price index was 2.6%. The upward revision was mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports, but inflation pressure was more stubborn than previously estimated [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2][3].
锌:小幅回落
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - Zinc prices showed a slight decline, with the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract down 1.11% to 21,845 yuan/ton, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was up 0.05% to 2,900 dollars/ton [1]. - Multiple Fed officials support shifting the inflation target from 2% to a range - based system, and with Powell's term ending next May, the market anticipates a structural change in the Fed under new leadership [2]. - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract price decreased, while LME Zinc 3M electronic trading price slightly increased. The prices of related zinc products such as hot - dipped galvanized coils, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide also declined [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 15,195 lots to 125,331 lots, and its open interest increased by 9,947 lots to 140,372 lots. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938 lots to 10,805 lots, and its open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc showed different changes, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 9.01 dollars/ton to 45.99 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, while LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. The LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 500 tons to 14,950 tons, and the LME off - warrant (T + 3) increased by 591 tons to 13,727 tons [1]. [News] - Multiple Fed officials including理事米兰, 鲍曼, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic support using an inflation target range instead of the current 2% precise target. The issue is still under discussion within the Fed despite the exclusion in the August five - year policy framework assessment [2].
锌:震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating: Oscillating weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,807 dollars/ton, up 0.05% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 114,993 lots, an increase of 21,819 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 8,014 lots, a decrease of 233 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 107,827 lots, a decrease of 891 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 192,457 lots, an increase of 964 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -4.61 dollars/ton, up 2.89 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 36,213 tons, a decrease of 153 tons; LME zinc inventory was 60,025 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons [1] News - The selection of the Fed Chairperson will be announced in autumn, with 11 potential candidates, and the final 3 - 4 candidates will be recommended after interviews [2] - Next week, the US Congress will have a crucial vote on the Fed's independence, which is highly politicized due to Trump's decision to fire Fed Governor Cook [2]
锌:小幅下跌
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:33
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The zinc market showed a slight decline. The trend strength of zinc is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,205 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,784 dollars/ton, down 0.45%. The prices of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy, Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy, and zinc oxide ≥99.7% all decreased by 100 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 110,478 lots, an increase of 14,740 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 8,911 lots, a decrease of 2,062 lots. The open interest of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 105,576 lots, an increase of 8,821 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 192,766 lots, a decrease of 1,232 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 0 zinc was -40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -10 dollars/ton, down 10.5 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory remained unchanged at 32,538 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants decreased by 1,850 tons to 28,600 tons, and the LME off - warrant (T + 3) decreased by 593 tons to 15,640 tons [1] 2. News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments aim to further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry, including strengthening industrial regulation, curbing low - price disorderly competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self - discipline [2]
锌:价格承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - Zinc prices are under pressure [1] - The zinc trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,848 dollars/ton, up 1.42% [1] - **Volumes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 78,345 lots, down 1,626; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,564 lots, up 58 [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 85,986 lots, down 1,502; the open interest of LME Zinc was 194,301 lots, up 1,359 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -55 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -4.76 dollars/ton, down 1.18 [1] - **Inventories**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 16,192 tons, up 424; LME zinc inventory was 78,475 tons, down 1,075 [1] News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. From January to July, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]
锌:震荡上行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Oscillating upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed analysis of the zinc market's fundamentals, including price, trading volume, open interest, premium/discount, inventory, and related product prices, as well as relevant news and trend strength [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, and LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 2,750 dollars/ton with -0.15% change [1] - **Trading Volume**: SHFE zinc main contract volume was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots, while LME zinc volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 94,254 lots, a decrease of 4,218 lots, and LME zinc open interest was 190,784 lots, an increase of 162 lots [1] - **Premium/Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -20 yuan/ton with no change, and LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -13.16 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.29 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil (tax - included) was 4,395 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,505 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,955 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base. Japan requests the US to correct the tariff implementation [2] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]
锌:震荡下行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Oscillating Downward" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on zinc's fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, premiums, and inventories, and indicates a downward trend for zinc [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Zinc Market Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 1.18% [1] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 105,121 lots, a decrease of 77,539 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 14,107 lots, an increase of 2,308 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 108,084 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 189,343 lots, a decrease of 568 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was -6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.2 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 14,982 tons, a decrease of 76 tons; LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons [1] 2. News - People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that from the first - half financial data, the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was relatively obvious. At the end of June, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.9%, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and RMB loans increased by 7.1% year - on - year [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3]
锌:继续累库
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:01
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc market is continuing to accumulate inventory. The prices of both Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc futures have declined, with the Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price at 22345 yuan/ton, down 1.43%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price at 2795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68% [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price decreased by 1.43% to 22345 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 0.68% to 2795.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main - contract increased by 41252 to 182660 lots, while the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 701 to 8740 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main - contract decreased by 5764 to 110481 lots, and the LME zinc open interest increased by 1164 to 189911 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium increased by 10 to 0 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 1.23 to - 2.69 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 174 to 15058 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4250 to 104800 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US is increasing pressure as the tariff deadline approaches, with multiple countries sending delegations to Washington for negotiations. Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and plans to sign a new executive order on Thursday to impose higher tariffs on countries that fail to reach trade agreements [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook according to the defined range of [-2, 2] where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2][3].