数据造假
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黄金,3355空!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 03:51
Group 1 - The recent firing of the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics raises concerns about the politicization of data collection, particularly regarding the July CPI data [1] - There have been significant revisions to non-farm payroll data, with over 800,000 jobs being revised downward last year, indicating a pattern of over-reporting by approximately 60,000 jobs each month [1] - The non-farm payroll figures for June were revised from 147,000 to 14,000, and for May from 144,000 to 19,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [1]
美国经济数据造假实锤?中国等这个机会已经太久,美国想翻身难了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 03:55
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data, which has shaken global markets and raised concerns about the reliability of economic statistics [1][3][5] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July added only 73,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, contradicting previous claims of a strong job market [3][5] - The revisions for May and June were drastic, with May's jobs adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating a potential manipulation of data [3][5][9] Group 2 - The sudden drop in employment data has led to a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, with calls for immediate rate cuts emerging [5][11] - The situation presents a unique opportunity for China to adjust its monetary policy in response to the changing global economic landscape [7][11] - Emerging markets are likely to reassess their monetary policies independently of the Federal Reserve, potentially breaking the dependency on the "dollar hegemony" [13][15]
美非农数据造假疯狂,这场面美国人都没见过,难怪中国一直拖延
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 04:19
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market data has been significantly revised downwards, with a total of 258,000 jobs disappearing from the non-farm payrolls over two months, indicating a potential systemic issue with the accuracy of employment statistics [2][4] - The U.S. government has a history of releasing favorable employment data to boost market confidence, only to later revise these figures downward, which has raised concerns about the integrity of the data [4][6] - The recent employment data revisions have led to negative implications for President Trump's administration, as he faces pressure to address the weak job numbers and has called for the dismissal of key economic officials [4][6] Group 2 - The job growth reported in June, which showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, was misleading as the majority of new positions were in government, education, and healthcare, while retail and manufacturing sectors showed little to no growth [6][7] - The current economic situation in the U.S. presents a dilemma for monetary policy, where both raising and lowering interest rates could lead to significant risks for the economy [6] - In the context of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the U.S. appears anxious and is employing various strategies, while China maintains a stable and patient approach, suggesting a potential delay tactic from the Chinese side [7]
特朗普关税大棒刚落地,美股崩盘数据造假,美国经济要翻车?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 14:32
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant market reaction to Trump's new tariff policy, which was initially touted as a way to reshape global trade but resulted in a market crash and negative economic indicators [1][3]. - Trump's administration announced tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 12 economies, including China and the EU, with a specific 40% penalty on goods routed through third countries [1]. - Following the announcement, major U.S. stock indices experienced sharp declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.23%, Nasdaq falling 2.24%, and S&P 500 decreasing by 1.6%, indicating a widespread market sell-off [3]. Group 2 - The U.S. labor market data released showed a disappointing increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data were revised downwards, indicating a troubling trend [4]. - Trump's response to the market downturn included attacking Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and suggesting a lack of independence for the Fed, which raised concerns about the administration's approach to economic policy [4]. - The dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director amid claims of manipulated data has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that this undermines the credibility of economic statistics and reflects a desperate attempt to shift blame for poor economic performance [7].