Core Viewpoint - The discussion led by Professor Lin Yifu emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, countering the "China collapse theory" with data and insights on growth prospects and structural reforms [2][3]. Economic Growth and Development - From 1978 to 2024, China's average annual GDP growth rate is 8.3%, making it the only major economy without a systemic financial crisis during this period [2]. - By 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to exceed $13,000, nearing the World Bank's high-income threshold [2]. - Lin Yifu categorizes China's development into two phases: the first focused on heavy industry, which laid the foundation but caused efficiency losses, and the second, post-1978, which shifted to labor-intensive industries, enabling rapid industrialization [2]. Reform and Innovation - The dual-track system is presented as a rational choice during the transition period, balancing economic stability with market development [2]. - China's gradual reform approach has created a 40-year growth miracle, contrasting with the "shock therapy" faced by many transitioning economies [2]. Future Growth Potential - Using a model based on the 2019 Sino-U.S. technology gap, China is expected to maintain an 8% growth potential until 2035, with actual growth rates projected between 5% and 6% [3]. - By 2049, even with a reduced potential of 6%, actual growth rates of 3% to 4% are still anticipated [3]. - Key supporting factors for this growth include an annual influx of 11 million university graduates, a large domestic market of 1.4 billion people, and a comprehensive industrial system [3]. Strategic Outlook - Lin Yifu envisions a future where China's GDP reaches half of the U.S. level, fundamentally altering the technology dependency dynamics between the two nations [3]. - He advises maintaining strategic focus amidst current trade tensions, asserting that China's innovation capabilities will ultimately strengthen its economic position [3]. Structural Challenges and Solutions - To address consumption challenges, Lin Yifu suggests increasing the share of resident income, enhancing social security, and promoting common prosperity [4]. - The integration of new urbanization and rural revitalization strategies is expected to unleash significant domestic demand potential [4]. Academic Perspective - Lin Yifu's balanced approach combines rational analysis of achievements with acknowledgment of structural issues, reflecting an objective academic stance [5]. - The ongoing dialogue and updates to his work illustrate the commitment to understanding and navigating the complexities of the Chinese economy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of US tariff policies on Chinese exports is significant but not as severe as some institutions predict, due to China's large economic scale and policy flexibility [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - China's export to the US reached $524.656 billion in 2024, accounting for 14.65% of total exports [2]. - The government is implementing policies to boost domestic consumption, such as subsidies for replacing old appliances and a $200 billion plan by JD.com to support domestic sales [2]. - There is a need to enhance consumer willingness to spend, which is currently hindered by unstable income expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Dynamics - Investment remains a key driver of economic growth, particularly in technology innovation and industrial upgrading, contrary to the view that China should shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth [2][3]. - China's actual consumption potential is not fully realized, necessitating a wider range of quality products and improved market confidence to stimulate spending [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - China has maintained an average growth rate of 9.7% for 16 years until 1995 and 8.3% from 1995 to 2024, with a per capita GDP of $13,445 in 2024, nearing high-income status [3][4]. - Unless a global economic crisis akin to the 1929 stock market crash occurs, achieving a 5% growth rate remains highly probable, with potential for 5.3% growth without US tariff influences [3][4]. Group 4: Structural Advantages and Reform - The key to China's sustained high growth post-reform is the continuous improvement of productivity and the emergence of new productive forces through technological innovation [4][5]. - China's gradual dual-track reform has allowed it to maintain stable growth, contrasting with other countries that faced stagnation or crises after market reforms [5].