作为国民经济与产业发展的"指南针"，"十五五"规划正进入关键政策窗口期。如何理解"十五五"规划的 路线图？宏观施政方面又将迎来哪些积极的新信号？ 10月23日，党的二十届四中全会闭幕，本次会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划的建议》，并发布了《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》（以下简 称"公报"）。 全会指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，在基本实现社会 主义现代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位。 为更深刻理解全会最新部署，南都湾财社特推出《洞见"十五五"》系列专访。中信建投证券首席经济学 家黄文涛在接受专访时，围绕"十五五"时期的历史定位与发展环境关系、"新质生产力"纳入规划框架的 价值导向、"有效市场+有为政府"的政策协同变化，以及五年规划总体思路演变等核心问题展开深入解 读，为把握"十五五"规划核心要点与政策方向提供专业视角。 中长期发展目标坚定 南都·湾财社：《建议》明确了"十五五"时期的历史定位，同时对未来五年我国发展环境作出了判断， 您是如何理解这一定位与环境判断的关系？ 黄文涛：《建议》明确"十五五"时期的历史定 ...

Group 1 - The recent news about the Beijing Civil Affairs Bureau's decision to legally dissolve the "China Low Altitude Economy Alliance" highlights the growing concern over "involution" competition within the low-altitude economy sector, which is seen as a strategic emerging industry with significant potential [1] - The dissolution is viewed as a critical first step in addressing the chaotic competition in the low-altitude industry, signaling the authorities' commitment to optimizing the industry ecosystem and curbing unhealthy competition practices [1] - Various industries, including both emerging sectors like photovoltaics and traditional sectors like coking and landscaping, have faced similar issues of "involution," characterized by excessive price competition and low-level repetitive construction, leading to overcapacity and thin profit margins [1] Group 2 - The persistent issue of "involution" competition is closely linked to resource misallocation and distorted market mechanisms, where companies focusing on short-term gains through price wars neglect quality and service improvements, resulting in inefficiency [2] - Governments that create "policy depressions" without considering local industry foundations and resource endowments contribute to homogenized industry layouts and resource waste, further exacerbating the problem [2] - Effective governance of "involution" competition requires a multi-faceted approach, emphasizing the need for a collaborative market environment that combines effective markets with proactive government intervention [2] Group 3 - To combat "involution" competition, it is essential to optimize the business environment, which involves reducing costs while increasing value, encouraging businesses to move away from zero-sum price wars and reliance on subsidies [3] - The focus should shift from resource-driven competition to innovation-driven growth, allowing businesses to unlock innovation, quality, and brand advantages [3] - The governance approach has evolved from merely preventing "involution" competition to actively regulating low-price disorderly competition, reflecting a systematic and legal framework for long-term management of the issue [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted approach to address "involutionary" competition, advocating for a collaborative market environment that combines an effective market with proactive government intervention [1][2][3]. Group 1: Issues in the Low Altitude Economy - The recent action by the Beijing Civil Affairs Bureau to dismantle the "China Low Altitude Economy Alliance" is seen as a significant step towards regulating the low altitude industry and addressing "involutionary" competition [1]. - The low altitude economy is identified as a strategic emerging industry that has attracted considerable capital interest, but has also been subject to exploitation by organizations misrepresenting themselves as industry associations [1]. - The article highlights that many industries, including both emerging sectors like photovoltaics and traditional sectors like coking and landscaping, have faced similar issues of excessive competition and resource waste [1]. Group 2: Root Causes of Involutionary Competition - The persistence of "involutionary" competition is linked to resource misallocation and distorted market mechanisms, where companies focus on short-term gains through price wars rather than improving product quality [2]. - Local governments that create "policy depressions" without considering local industry foundations contribute to homogenized industry layouts and resource wastage [2]. - The inadequacy of market mechanisms fosters an environment conducive to "involutionary" competition, which can stifle innovation and sustainable development in industries [2]. Group 3: Strategies for Governance - To effectively govern "involutionary" competition, a combination of strategies is necessary, focusing on creating a synergistic market environment through unified national market construction and regulatory recognition [2][3]. - Improving the business environment requires reducing costs while increasing value, encouraging businesses to shift from price wars to innovation-driven growth [3]. - The governance approach has evolved from merely preventing "involutionary" competition to implementing systematic and legal measures to regulate low-price disorderly competition [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of non-governmental forces, particularly venture capital, in driving technological innovation and industrial upgrades, rather than solely relying on government funding [1][2] - It discusses the role of government in establishing industrial guidance funds and providing tax incentives to encourage private investment in technology [2][3] - The article highlights the need for a high-quality, law-based business environment to foster the emergence of leading enterprises and industry clusters, including unicorns and specialized small and medium enterprises [3][4] Group 2 - It mentions the concept of "effective market + proactive government," suggesting that while the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation, the government should also play a supportive and limited role [3][4] - The article points out that the government should not directly select support targets but rather create conditions for potential leading enterprises to emerge organically [3] - It stresses the necessity of a rational approach to government support, ensuring that it complements market dynamics rather than distorts them [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion led by Professor Lin Yifu emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, countering the "China collapse theory" with data and insights on growth prospects and structural reforms [2][3]. Economic Growth and Development - From 1978 to 2024, China's average annual GDP growth rate is 8.3%, making it the only major economy without a systemic financial crisis during this period [2]. - By 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to exceed $13,000, nearing the World Bank's high-income threshold [2]. - Lin Yifu categorizes China's development into two phases: the first focused on heavy industry, which laid the foundation but caused efficiency losses, and the second, post-1978, which shifted to labor-intensive industries, enabling rapid industrialization [2]. Reform and Innovation - The dual-track system is presented as a rational choice during the transition period, balancing economic stability with market development [2]. - China's gradual reform approach has created a 40-year growth miracle, contrasting with the "shock therapy" faced by many transitioning economies [2]. Future Growth Potential - Using a model based on the 2019 Sino-U.S. technology gap, China is expected to maintain an 8% growth potential until 2035, with actual growth rates projected between 5% and 6% [3]. - By 2049, even with a reduced potential of 6%, actual growth rates of 3% to 4% are still anticipated [3]. - Key supporting factors for this growth include an annual influx of 11 million university graduates, a large domestic market of 1.4 billion people, and a comprehensive industrial system [3]. Strategic Outlook - Lin Yifu envisions a future where China's GDP reaches half of the U.S. level, fundamentally altering the technology dependency dynamics between the two nations [3]. - He advises maintaining strategic focus amidst current trade tensions, asserting that China's innovation capabilities will ultimately strengthen its economic position [3]. Structural Challenges and Solutions - To address consumption challenges, Lin Yifu suggests increasing the share of resident income, enhancing social security, and promoting common prosperity [4]. - The integration of new urbanization and rural revitalization strategies is expected to unleash significant domestic demand potential [4]. Academic Perspective - Lin Yifu's balanced approach combines rational analysis of achievements with acknowledgment of structural issues, reflecting an objective academic stance [5]. - The ongoing dialogue and updates to his work illustrate the commitment to understanding and navigating the complexities of the Chinese economy [5].