1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the fourth consecutive meeting. It is expected to cut rates twice this year, hinting at an increased risk of stagflation. Geopolitical risks, uncertain tariff policies, and delayed rate cuts are suppressing market risk appetite [5]. - Supply: In June, bauxite prices fluctuated. The overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products [5]. - Demand: The previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand [5]. - Inventory: Last week, both the LME market and domestic social inventories continued to decline, indicating that the market demand is not weak in the off - season [5]. - View: Entering June, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products. On the demand side, the previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand. Currently, domestic social inventories are at a long - term low. Under the dual effects of capacity constraints and stable demand, aluminum prices still have upward potential in the medium term [5]. - Strategy: For Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy operations, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips. The reference support level for Shanghai Aluminum 2508 is 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - Macro factors such as Fed's rate - decision, geopolitical risks, and tariff policies affect market risk appetite [5]. - Supply side has capacity - related situations in alumina and electrolytic aluminum, along with import trends [5]. - Demand varies in different industries like photovoltaic, real estate, white goods, and new energy [5]. - Inventory shows a downward trend in both LME and domestic social inventories [5]. - The view is that aluminum prices have medium - term upward potential, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and China's aluminum ingot import profits [9][10]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of bauxite and its concentrates were 85.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. In May, imports were 17.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.4%. In 2024, China imported 158.767 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. Guinea and Australia were the main sources. There are also many potential incremental projects in Guinea with a total expected increment of 62 million tons [20][22]. - **Alumina**: By May 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry was 2,879.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 153.6 yuan/ton from the previous month. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.4%, and cumulative exports were 11.723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.4% [28][33][34]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of March 2025, China's built - in electrolytic aluminum capacity was 45.172 million tons, and the operating capacity reached 43.85 million tons. In May 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,333 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The average profit was about 3,717 yuan/ton. In May 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In May 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 2.232 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 10.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 0.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 215.6%. On June 20, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 342,900 tons. As of June 19, 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 450,000 tons [39][43][46][50][56][57]. 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloy**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In May, production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [65]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [72]. - **Imports and Exports of Aluminum Products**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 16.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and exports were 24.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecasts, photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecasts, new energy vehicle sales forecasts, China's real estate market situation, new energy vehicle production, and power project investment, as well as China's automotive and photovoltaic aluminum consumption forecasts [83][87][92][97][102]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global primary aluminum production in 2025 will be 73.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. There are detailed production and demand data for different regions and years from 2021 to 2027E, showing supply - demand balances in different periods [105][106][107]. - **Aluminum Industrial Chain Structure**: No detailed text description provided, but presumably related to the overall industrial chain of aluminum from bauxite to downstream products.

Core Viewpoint - The conference organized by Jinrui Futures in Foshan focused on the evolving global trade landscape, trends in the copper and aluminum markets, and the application of financial derivatives in the non-ferrous metal industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The non-ferrous metal industry in South China is facing challenges such as supply-demand structural adjustments and increased price volatility due to the rise of the new energy industry [1]. - There has been a decline in non-ferrous metal inventories in Guangdong province, with spot and futures premiums reaching new highs, indicating tight supply expectations [2]. - The expected decline in imported copper will accelerate the decrease in domestic electrolytic copper inventories [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The growth in investment in the power sector is expected to support copper prices, although the construction industry is unlikely to provide positive feedback for copper consumption in the short term [2]. - The aluminum market is experiencing limited supply growth as electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaches its ceiling, while demand remains relatively weak [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Derivatives - The development of the over-the-counter derivatives business in China is progressing well, with increasing participation and transaction volumes in copper options [2]. - The risk management subsidiary of Jinrui Capital plays a crucial role in enhancing the risk management capabilities of the non-ferrous metal industry and supporting its international development [2].

Group 1 - The battle between the new energy industry and traditional industries is intensifying, with electric vehicles rapidly capturing market share due to their environmental benefits, efficiency, and lower travel costs [1] - Lithium batteries, essential for electric vehicles, have applications beyond the automotive sector, initially being used in 3C digital products and expanding due to environmental policies [1] - The company Baoli Lion has launched a "one-stop lithium battery assembly franchise" project to assist aspiring entrepreneurs in entering the lithium battery market [1] Group 2 - Baoli Lion has extensive experience in the lithium battery assembly and recycling industry, having started research on this technology over 15 years ago and developing environmental equipment and a strong engineering team [1] - The franchise project requires minimal space and can be operated by 1-2 people, making it accessible for entrepreneurs, often referred to as a "home-based dream project" [2] - The demand for lithium batteries is significant across various sectors, including communications, medical devices, military, and aerospace, driven by their lightweight, high energy storage, and long lifespan [2]

长江商报记者注意到，伴随着新能源行业的快速发展，华汇智能的经营业绩呈高速增长趋势。但在上下 游，华汇智能均存在集中度高的情况。2024年前九月，公司前五大客户销售收入占当期营业收入的比例 为98.12%。 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐佳 高端智能装备制造商广东华汇智能装备股份有限公司（以下简称"华汇智能"）已接受北交所的首轮IPO 审核问询。 日前，北交所对华汇智能发出审核问询函，对公司客户稳定性、募投项目必要性、经营业绩等多个方面 展开详细问询。 在客户集中度高的情况下，监管部门要求华汇智能说明其向湖南裕能销售收入较高的原因及合理性，以 及与万润新能等客户合作稳定性。 按照计划，华汇智能拟募集资金4.59亿元，全部投入到东莞市华汇新能源智能装备研发生产项目。 然而，从产能利用率来看，2024年前九月，公司两大产品纳米砂磨机、机械密封产品的产能利用率均不 足60%。公司募投项目建设的合理性和必要性存疑。 上下游集中度双高 资料显示，华汇智能成立于2010年6月，2023年7月完成股份制改制，2024年6月在新三板挂牌。2025年3 月，北交所正式受理了华汇智能的首发申请，并在近日对公司发出首轮监管问询函。 ...