硫磺行业专家电话会 20251113 摘要 国际硫磺市场供应紧张，外盘价格高企，国内价格随之上涨。主要受中 亚炼厂检修、俄乌冲突影响，国际供应缺口扩大，预计短期内难以改善， 价格易涨难跌。关注俄罗斯供应恢复情况对市场的影响。 国内硫磺产能主要集中在中石化普光气田和浙江石化，总产能约为 1,680 万吨。下游需求主要来自磷肥行业（占比 52%），其次是商用硫 酸、己内酰胺和钛白粉。新能源行业对硫磺的需求占比约为 3%。 目前国内固体硫磺贸易港口库存约 223 万吨，液体库存近 5 万吨，总库 存约 228 万吨。新增产能方面，国内外项目较少且进展缓慢，预计 2026 年硫磺市场仍将处于供应偏紧状态，价格维持高位。 2025 年冶炼烟气制酸总产能为 6,009 万吨，硫铁矿制酸总产能为 2,535 万吨，多个新增项目计划投产。部分企业可能转向直接采购冶炼 酸而非自行用硫磺制酸，具体取决于经济性和环保成本。 高企的硫磺价格给磷肥生产企业带来巨大成本压力，大部分企业处于亏 损状态。由于化肥涉及民生，价格传导不畅，生产企业被动接受高价硫 磺。关注企业是否会转向使用其他替代品如冶炼酸。 Q&A 今年硫磺行业的供需情况如何 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit across various business segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 31.663 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.254 billion yuan, up 26.84% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.05%, and a net profit of approximately 1.286 billion yuan, which is a 4.04% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The company experienced strong growth in its industrial control business, with overall revenue growth driven by demand from the new energy sector and emerging industries such as machine tools and semiconductors [2]. - The general automation segment saw a revenue increase of 20%, while the automotive and rail transit segment grew by 38%, and the elevator business remained flat with a 0% growth [2]. - Specifically, the automotive revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 14.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 38% year-on-year increase, with Q3 2025 automotive revenue estimated at 5.38 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's non-recurring gains and losses significantly decreased in Q3 2025, amounting to approximately 0.069 billion yuan, down by 1.01 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to reduced fair value changes in equity investments [3]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 increased by 14% to 1.217 billion yuan, while the overall net profit grew by 4% to 1.286 billion yuan due to the decline in non-recurring gains [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 5.44 billion yuan and 6.64 billion yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 39.4x for 2025 and 32.3x for 2026 [4]. - The target price has been raised by 6.7% to 80 yuan, reflecting a 1% upside potential compared to the current stock price [4].

Core Viewpoint - CATL, a leading player in the global new energy industry, reported impressive financial results for Q3 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit [1]. Financial Performance - The operating revenue for the reporting period reached 1,041.86 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.90% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 185.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.21%, with an average daily profit of 2.23 billion yuan [1][2]. - The net profit margin for the period was 19.1%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 806.6 billion yuan, up 19.60% year-on-year [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, total assets reached 896.08 billion yuan, a 13.91% increase from the end of the previous year [2]. Inventory and Investment - Inventory increased by 34.05% to 80.21 billion yuan, attributed to the growth in business scale [2]. - Investment income rose to 52.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.46%, due to improved net profits from associated companies [2]. Market Position - In the domestic power battery market, CATL maintained its leading position with a cumulative installation volume of 210.67 GWh, holding a market share of 42.75% [3]. - The overall domestic power battery installation volume for the first nine months was 493.9 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.5% [2][3].

- The report discusses the overall performance of the four major stock index futures, with the CSI 500 futures showing the largest increase of 3.83% and the SSE 50 futures showing the smallest increase of 1.00%[3] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH futures showing the largest decrease of -24.59% and the IC futures showing the smallest decrease of -5.41%[3] - The basis levels for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are provided, with the IF and IM discounts deepening, the IC discount narrowing, and the IH discount turning into a premium[3] - The cross-period spread rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are given, with the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts' cross-period spread rates being at the 45.80%, 49.70%, 60.20%, and 40.00% percentiles since 2019, respectively[3] - The report mentions that there are no opportunities for positive or negative arbitrage in the IF main contract based on the closing prices[4] - The dividend forecast indicates that the dividends for the main contracts of the four major index futures have minimal impact on the September main contracts' points[4] - The market sentiment has improved, with the IH basis turning from a discount to a premium and the total open interest of the four major index futures increasing, with the IC showing the most significant increase[4][13] - The report includes a detailed explanation of the calculation methods for index futures arbitrage, including the formulas for positive and negative arbitrage returns[46] - The dividend estimation method is explained, which involves predicting the dividend points based on historical dividend patterns and the current EPS and payout ratio[47][48]

Group 1 - The report by Deloitte indicates a steady development trend in the A-share market for the first three quarters of this year, with an increase in both the number of new stocks and financing amounts, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors [1] - Deloitte forecasts that there will be 78 new stocks listed in the A-share market by the third quarter of 2025, raising a total of 771 billion yuan, which represents a 13% increase in the number of new stocks and a 61% increase in total financing compared to the same period last year [1] - The report highlights that the new stock issuance in the A-share market is progressing steadily in line with regulatory policies, demonstrating the strength of the mainland's new stock market as it ranks among the top five globally in new stock financing [1] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, Deloitte anticipates that there will be 66 new stocks listed in the first three quarters of this year, raising 1,823 billion HKD, which is a 47% increase in the number of new stocks and a 228% increase in financing compared to the same period last year [1] - The report also predicts that there will be six large-scale new stock listings in Hong Kong during this period [1] - With the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, it is expected that more overseas funds will seek high-growth investment opportunities in the Asian markets, including mainland China and Hong Kong, providing a favorable environment for large new stock issuances in Hong Kong in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks are rising against the market trend, with China Hongqiao up 4.96% to HKD 25.4, Jiangxi Copper up 4.43% to HKD 25.46, China Aluminum up 3.49% to HKD 7.11, and Luoyang Molybdenum up 3.14% to HKD 12.49 [1] - Changjiang Securities reports that the net profit of the base metals sector is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of CNY 37.644 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 14% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The growth in the first half of 2025 is attributed to a phase of upward resonance in the manufacturing sectors of China and the US, along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in base metal prices [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates that the significant underperformance of the US non-farm payroll data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting makes a rate cut announcement almost certain, with an 80% probability of three rate cuts within the year [2] - The prices of industrial metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories at relatively low levels [2] - The recovery of the Chinese economy, combined with the demand boost from the renewable energy sector, is expected to improve the demand for copper and aluminum [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lianhua Technology (002250) has experienced significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by cost reduction, operational efficiency improvements, and favorable exchange rate gains [1] Group 1: Profit Growth Reasons - The company's profit in the first half of 2025 increased significantly compared to the same period last year due to continuous cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [1] - The utilization rate of the plant protection business improved, and the product structure was adjusted, leading to an increase in gross margin [1] - The pharmaceutical business saw notable growth due to concentrated shipments and substantial exchange rate gains [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Business Developments - The pharmaceutical business growth is attributed to a focus on major clients, with partnerships established with several leading global pharmaceutical companies [1] - The company is actively expanding its client base, particularly targeting strategic and high-viscosity clients [1] - Collaborations have been established with a number of high-quality domestic and international clients [1] Group 3: Plant Protection Business Factors - The company follows a customer-centric strategy, providing a stable supply chain, comprehensive product delivery capabilities, and high-quality services [1] - The UK subsidiary improved its capacity utilization and operational performance in the first half of the year [1] - The UK subsidiary also achieved significant exchange rate gains, enhancing overall performance [1] Group 4: New Energy Project Progress - The company has achieved stable supply and gradual production increases for electrolyte products [1] - New energy products, including main salt products and cathode materials, have achieved stable commercial delivery [1] - The company anticipates that revenue from the new energy business will exceed expectations in 2025 [1] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Strategy - The company is actively monitoring industry trends and developing products in response to customer needs [1] - There is a focus on optimizing services and technology to reduce costs and promote innovation [1] Group 6: Competitive Landscape in India - Indian companies have entered the CDMO field, primarily focusing on generic drug supply chains, with unclear competitiveness in patented drugs [1] - While India has advantages in compliance and labor costs, China possesses a more comprehensive supply chain and a mature waste treatment system [1] - The company believes that maintaining its competitive edge will allow it to sustain market share and profitability despite emerging competitors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Keda Li (002850) is recognized as one of the largest suppliers of precision structural components for power batteries in China, with a strong focus on R&D and manufacturing capabilities in this sector [1] Group 1: Company Positioning - The company has established itself as a core strategic supplier for leading global manufacturers by leveraging its deep technical expertise and manufacturing capabilities in precision structural components [1] - Keda Li has been involved in the R&D and production of precision structural components for power batteries since the early stages of the industry in China [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen strategic cooperation with high-quality leading customers, focusing on technological innovation and capacity expansion [1] - Keda Li aims to provide superior precision structural component solutions for the global new energy industry, contributing to its sustainable high-quality development [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 122 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 19.28 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 60.18% compared to the previous year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.90 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders [1] Group 2 - The total profit increased by 61.29% year-on-year, driven by the continuous expansion into the new energy sector and an increase in order quantity [1] - Key products, including O-rings and shaft seals, saw substantial sales growth, contributing to the overall revenue increase [1] - The company enhanced internal management and invested in automation equipment and production process improvements, leading to increased overall production efficiency and improved gross margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hongyuan Co., Ltd. is enhancing its research and development capabilities through the establishment of a new R&D center, aiming to improve its competitive edge in the electromagnetic wire industry, particularly for high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage transformers [1][2][3] Company Overview - Hongyuan Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of electromagnetic wires, including various types such as paper-wrapped wires, enameled wires, and combination wires, primarily used in high-voltage and large-capacity power transformers [1][2] - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer in the high-voltage electromagnetic wire sector, recognized as a national "Manufacturing Single Champion Enterprise" and a "High-tech Enterprise" [2][3] R&D and Innovation - The company plans to invest significantly in its R&D center to enhance its innovation capabilities and attract high-end technical talent, thereby supporting technological advancements [1][9] - Hongyuan has achieved notable milestones in product development, including the domestically pioneering "ultra-thin combination wire" and "high-temperature self-adhesive enameled combination wire," which meet international performance standards [2][3] Market Position and Opportunities - The electromagnetic wire industry is experiencing growth due to increased investments in power grid projects driven by China's dual carbon goals, creating a favorable market environment for Hongyuan [5][6] - The company has secured a strong market position in ultra-high voltage transformer wires, having completed significant advancements in the application of its products in ultra-high voltage fields [3][4] Financial Performance - Hongyuan's revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.74% from 2022 to 2024, with projected revenues for 2025 expected to range between 247 million and 273 million yuan, indicating robust growth [6][7] - The company reported net profits of approximately 50 million yuan in 2022, with expectations for continued profit growth in the coming years [6] Fundraising and Investment Plans - The company is raising approximately 282 million yuan through a public offering, with funds allocated for projects including the digital upgrade of production lines and the establishment of a production base for special electromagnetic wires for electric vehicles [9][10] - The planned projects aim to enhance production capacity, improve technological processes, and expand the product range to include applications in the electric vehicle sector [9][10]