Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton market is affected by multiple factors including domestic demand, international supply - demand changes; domestic cotton spot trading is cold, and the US cotton market shows fluctuations due to supply - demand adjustments [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session decline of 0.63%; CY2509 closed at 19,770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% and a night - session decline of 0.35%; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.25%. Trading volume and open interest of CF2509 decreased, while CY2509's open interest increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 to 10,769, and effective forecasts increased by 14 to 364; cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 2, and effective forecasts increased by 2 to 2 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Domestic spot prices showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling. For example, Shandong's price rose by 54 yuan/ton (0.36%), and Hebei's price rose by 59 yuan/ton (0.40%), while the international cotton index M decreased by 0.08% [1] - **Spread Data**: CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton; the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Overall trading was cold, spinners' purchasing willingness was weak, and sales basis was firm. Different regions had different basis quotes, such as 2024/25 southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 mostly quoted at CF09 + 1100 - 1300 [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: Spinners raised yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan, but sales followed slowly. In the traditional off - season, fabric mills replenished stocks on a need - to - basis, and traders' speculative demand was insufficient. Spinners' operating rates continued to decline, and market confidence was low [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton 12 first fell and then rose. Due to poor weekly sales data, it once hit a one - and - a - half - month low. After the USDA released the June supply - demand report, it rebounded as the USDA lowered the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast to 14 million bales (from 14.5 million bales in the May report) and raised the 2024/25 US cotton exports to 11.5 million bales (from 11.1 million bales in the May report), reducing the 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton declined by over 2% in the week ending May 16, pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and favorable weather in major US cotton - growing areas. The domestic textile industry's operation is stable, but the downstream confidence is weak, with开机率 decreasing due to poor profits and limited new orders. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly driven by market optimism from Sino - US talks, but there is a risk of decline if Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to drop. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 67.61, High at 68.89, Low at 64.75, Close at 65.14, Down 1.58 or 2.37%, Volume 120,492 lots, Volume Change 19,586 lots, Open Interest 113,188 lots, Open Interest Change 7,367 lots - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 12,945, High at 13,480, Low at 12,920, Close at 13,390, Up 440 or 3.40%, Volume 1,295,371 lots, Volume Change 487,287 lots, Open Interest 572,606 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,478 lots - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open at 19,205, High at 19,855, Low at 19,160, Close at 19,620, Up 400 or 2.08%, Volume 32,098 lots, Volume Change 9,847 lots, Open Interest 20,605 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,578 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and good weather in major US cotton - growing areas, ICE cotton declined. For the 2024/25 old - crop, USDA raised US cotton exports by 200,000 bales, but less than expected. The estimated ending stocks of 4.8 million bales pressured the July contract. For the 2025/26 new - crop, with a 11.7% year - on - year decrease in area and a 15.2% abandonment rate, production is expected to reach 14.5 million bales, and ending stocks will increase by 400,000 bales to 5.2 million bales [1][5] - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 27,700 tons, up 86% week - on - week and 2% above the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 74,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week and 5% below the four - week average. The total signed sales of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton reached 2.6296 million tons, accounting for 109% of the annual forecasted exports. The cumulative export shipments were 1.997 million tons, accounting for 76% of the total annual signed volume. New flower pre - sales were poor, and Pakistan continued to cancel contracts due to weak domestic demand [6] - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In February, cotton imports decreased month - on - month, and so did the exports of cotton yarn and textile clothing. As of April 30, the Cotton Corporation of India sold about 200,000 bales of cotton, reducing its inventory to 7 million bales. The arrival volume this season has reached 27.5 million bales. The daily arrival volume is about 27,000 bales, mostly from Maharashtra. In February, raw cotton imports were 49,126 tons, down 17% from January but higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first seven months of this season reached 439,237 tons, mainly from Australia and the African Franc Zone. In February, raw cotton exports were 37,651 tons, down 8% from the previous month and 69% from February 2024. Bangladesh is the main destination. Cotton yarn exports in February were 92,100 tons, slightly lower than in January and 8% lower than in February 2024. The total cotton yarn exports in the first seven months of this year were 625,064 tons, 8% less than in the same period of 2023/24. Textile exports in February were $2.05 billion, down 6% month - on - month but slightly higher than in February 2024 [8] - **Brazil**: Recent trading was light. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 3.905 million tons, mainly due to the increased planting area in Bahia. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton has been sold through primary channels. Farmers are hesitant to sell at current prices. In Mato Grosso, about 16% of the 2026 - season production has been sold. In April, raw cotton exports were 239,145 tons, similar to March and last year. Turkey is the largest buyer, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. The cumulative exports from July to April exceeded 2.55 million tons, more than in the same period of 2023/24 [9] - **Pakistan**: Cotton demand is low. Favorable weather has promoted sowing, but water shortages in some areas of Sindh still hinder field operations. In Punjab, sowing progress is faster than last year, exceeding 60% of the planned target, while in Sindh, the sowing completion rate is 33%. The local cotton market is inactive. Ginning mills are eager to clear inventory, but few spinning mills are willing to buy due to low profits [10] - **Australia**: Cotton exports in March were low. The production report is good, with an expected output of about 5.5 million bales, potentially the highest since 2022/23. However, untimely rainfall during the critical growth period may affect cotton quality, and the market is closely watching the early grading results [10] - **Bangladesh**: Cotton imports in April remained stable. Many spinning mills have good orders and replenishment needs, but difficulties in opening letters of credit still hinder transactions. In April, cotton imports were 148,449 tons, slightly up month - on - month and 12% up year - on - year. African Franc Zone cotton is the main import source, followed by Brazilian and Indian cotton. The total imports in the first nine months of 2024 were 1.25 million tons, up 16% year - on - year [11] - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operation Rates**: As of the week ending May 16, India's textile enterprises'开机率 was 75.5%, Vietnam's was 66%, and Pakistan's was 59% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly in the week ending May 16, but spot transactions became lighter. After Sino - US tariff withdrawals, although some orders returned and backlogged orders were re - shipped, new orders were limited. The profit of downstream industries deteriorated as the price increase of cotton yarn and grey cloth was less than that of cotton, leading to low willingness to replenish raw materials [1][2][12] - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 16, the registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton were 11,548 lots, and the forecasted warehouse receipts were 365 lots, totaling 11,913 lots, equivalent to 500,346 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, 11,015 were Xinjiang cotton and 533 were local cotton [12] - **Downstream Market**: The transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the week. The prices of 40 - 60 count cotton yarns increased by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. The profit of inland spinning mills was slightly negative, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills was good. Spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory first increased and then decreased, currently at a moderately low level, and the开机率 was stable. The overall situation in the all - cotton grey cloth market improved slightly. After the Sino - US joint statement, some traceable orders returned, but the overall order volume recovery was not obvious. The inventory of grey cloth remained high, and the开机率 of weaving mills was about 50%. Weaving mills were not willing to buy cotton yarn and mainly purchased as needed [13][14] 3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises'开机率 (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises'开机率 (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are weak. Without new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or major changes in US trade agreements, the upward momentum of ICE cotton is insufficient. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly due to market optimism. If Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to decline, Zhengzhou cotton futures may fall. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [20]