Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.87%, and 14,570 yuan/ton at night with a night - time increase of 0.07%. CY2603 closed at 20,605 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56%, and 20,575 yuan/ton at night with a night - time decrease of 0.15%. ICE US Cotton 3 closed at 64.3 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.06%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 537,129 lots, a decrease of 127,069 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,139,140 lots, a decrease of 10,656 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 10,923 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 20,870 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5,212, an increase of 127 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 3,973, an increase of 211. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 2, an increase of 17 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.78%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.79%. The price in Shandong was 15,581 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.01%. The price in Hebei was 15,564 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.03%. The 3128B index was 15,543 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.01%. The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 72.75 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.07% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish. The basic price quotes were basically the same as the basis price quotes. The mainstream lower - selling basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF05 + 900 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North - South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 with impurity within 3 in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly in the range of CF05+1500 - 1600 for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and the trading was average. Recently, the price of cotton yarn has risen slightly, but the weak downstream demand has blocked the price increase transmission, and the profit of yarn mills has been under continuous pressure. There is a game between the year - end pressure of selling goods for cash and the rising raw material cost. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market are still dull, and the grey fabric price is difficult to follow the increase. Currently, textile mills have insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered orders [2] - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose and then fell for the third consecutive day. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, the market is concerned about the US cotton export sales data to be released on Thursday [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information available on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The cotton futures price is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,140 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 308,398 lots, a decrease of 144,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,123,245 lots, an increase of 7,199 lots. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume was 8,895 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,262 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.02 cents/pound with an increase of 0.64% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 4,001, an increase of 170. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, an increase of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 9 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,985 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,246 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 0.00 cents/pound, a decrease of 72 cents or 100.00% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall transaction of domestic cotton spot was relatively active. The fixed - price trading continued to improve, while the point - price trading was relatively sluggish. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4130/30B with impurity within 3.5 were mostly above 15,000 yuan for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B with impurity within 3 were at 15,100 - 15,150 yuan (public standard) for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight increase, and the sales were differentiated. Driven by the continuous rise in the upstream cotton price, the overall quotation of cotton yarn was firm. High - count combed yarn was the main force for price increases and had good sales, while the price of low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) was stable due to inventory accumulation. The downstream weaving market was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with no obvious intention to replenish stocks. The weak demand dragged down the overall transaction. Although the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provided phased support for medium - and low - count yarns, it was difficult to change the overall off - season pattern [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, affected by the weakening of the US dollar [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that cotton will maintain a volatile trend. The fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak, and the current market is mainly influenced by market sentiment [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,460 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 13,495 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,725 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 19,805 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 63.93 cents/pound with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 295,438 lots, an increase of 27,671 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 945,741 lots, an increase of 14,640 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 20,225 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 20,948 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 1,259 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,221, an increase of 74. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 17, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 27 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,376 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,363 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 14,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03%. The 3128B index was 14,796 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.03%. The international cotton index M was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan or 0.04% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases and having weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes are stable, and the spot sales basis is also stable. The current cotton outbound freight by truck has increased steadily. The freight from Northern Xinjiang's Kuitun to Shandong's Heze is about 665 yuan/ton, and from Southern Xinjiang's Aksu to Shandong's Heze is about 695 yuan/ton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall trading of pure - cotton yarn is average, with stable quotes and a downward - shifting transaction focus. Some high - count combed yarn prices have increased steadily. Recently, textile enterprises are mainly delivering previous orders, with few new orders. Small and medium - sized textile enterprises produce as needed, with little inventory pressure and good sales. Some large - scale textile enterprises have a decline in the production - sales ratio, a slight increase in inventory, and a certain reduction in the operating rate. High - quality yarns such as pure Australian cotton in traceability orders are selling well, and some manufacturers are rushing for exports [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly affected by market sentiment, and the fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the cotton industry as expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,615 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.59% and a night - session close at 13,630 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. CY2601 closed at 19,820 yuan/ton with a 0.13% daily increase and a night - session close at 19,890 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.07 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease [1] - **Transaction and Position Data**: CF2601 had a trading volume of 381,948 lots, an increase of 133,555 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 943,370 lots, an increase of 23,742 lots. CY2601 had a trading volume of 12,268 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 25,021 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 2,752 warehouse receipts, an increase of 182, and 1,377 valid forecasts, a decrease of 40. Cotton yarn had 6 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 12 valid forecasts, a decrease of 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.41%. The price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.05%. The 3128B index was 14,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local low - basis cotton spot transactions remained good, and the supply of low - basis spot goods gradually increased. Different grades of northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton had different basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with significant regional differentiation. Xinjiang textile enterprises reported smooth sales and good orders for medium - and high - count yarns, while the mainland market had a weak trading atmosphere, and some enterprises slightly reduced prices to clear inventory [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices. However, due to the improvement in international economic and trade relations, the market expected an improvement in global and US cotton demand, and ICE cotton was more resilient than in October [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Xinjiang region's new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The outer - market US cotton is running weakly, and short - term cotton may continue to be under pressure, but the downside space may be limited. Be cautious about chasing short positions in case of sharp drops [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Price Changes - On October 15, compared with October 14, domestic cotton futures CF01 rose 5 points to 13270 with a 0.04% increase; CF05 rose 10 points to 13330 with a 0.08% increase; CF01 - 05 decreased 5 points to - 60. In domestic cotton spot, the price in Xinjiang decreased 85 points to 14513 with a - 0.58% change; in Henan, it decreased 113 points to 14755 with a - 0.76% change; in Shandong, it decreased 82 points to 14676 with a - 0.56% change. Xinjiang - main continuous basis decreased 90 points to 1243 [3] Yarn Futures and Spot Price Changes - Domestic棉纱 futures CY rose 35 points to 19325 on October 15 compared with October 14, with a 0.18% increase. The domestic棉纱 spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20440 with a 0.00% change [3] Outer - market Cotton Price Changes - CT (USD/ lb) remained at 63 with a 0.00% change; the arrival price decreased 0.1 to 73.30 with a - 0.14% change; the US cotton spot 1% quota pick - up price decreased 18 to 12833 with a - 0.14% change; the sliding - duty pick - up price decreased 6 to 13872 with a - 0.04% change [3] Spread Data Changes - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) increased 30; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) increased 12; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) decreased 64 [3] Market Situation in Different Regions - In Xinjiang, the new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is between 6 - 6.15 yuan/kg, and in southern Xinjiang, it is between 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The one - price sales quotation of ginning factories is between 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3] Outer - market Situation - The outer - market US cotton is running weakly. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of US cotton - related data is suspended, the recession concern deepens, and there is no news about the Sino - US tariff negotiation, which drags down the US cotton price [3]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF01 + 1500, and the pre - sale basis of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang double 29 cotton was mostly above CF01 + 900 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and spinning mills sold at market prices. Cotton yarn prices were generally stable with a slow downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market maintained shipments, and grey fabric prices were stable. Overseas, U.S. cotton had a slightly lower good - to - excellent rate, an increased drought coverage in cotton - growing areas, and improved weekly export data, but overall it was in a weak and volatile range. Domestically, the purchase price of cottonseed was generally stable, but new cotton acquisition was slow due to local hail and rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Demand - side inventory was still decreasing steadily, but overall demand was weaker than the same period last year. In the short term, with limited new cotton supply, it would be weak under the pressure of a potential bumper harvest after the festival [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the latest survey by the China Cotton Association, the estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD - CNY exchange rate, and USD - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) is in a range - bound adjustment. Seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement has increased, and market trading has improved. Although textile mills are still in losses, the losses have narrowed. Before the new cotton is listed, ZCE cotton may fluctuate around the expected opening price of seed cotton, with limited upside and downside in the short - term [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The low basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint (3129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce. More quotes are above CF09 + 1200, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low basis is in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450. Some CF01 contract quotes are the same, also for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - **Domestic Downstream Market**: The seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement and stocking have increased, and market trading has improved. Textile mills' losses have narrowed, but the operating rate has not recovered. Inland textile mills maintain a low operating rate, and inventory has decreased. The price of pure - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, downstream inquiries and sales have not improved continuously, and the overall trading atmosphere is still weak. The overall operating rate of weaving factories has increased slightly, and inventory has slowly declined [7] - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (53% the previous week, 42% the same period last year); the boll - setting rate was 73% (65% the previous week, 83% the same period last year, 80% the five - year average); the full - boll rate was 13% (8% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, 16% the five - year average); the budding rate was 97% (93% the previous week, 98% the same period last year, 98% the five - year average). The short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound situation [8] - **Domestic Market Outlook**: As the new cotton listing period approaches, the expected output of new cotton is stable with a slight increase. The downstream industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, the operating rate of textile mills has remained stable, and the grey fabric end is still dominated by small orders. The overall demand has improved slightly compared with the previous period. The recent market rumor that the pre - purchased price of seed cotton in northern Xinjiang is about 6.3 yuan/kg has put pressure on the market [8] 2. Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from September 1, 2026, for the warehouse receipts registered in the following cotton delivery warehouses, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the adjusted standards. For the warehouse receipts registered before September 1, 2026, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the original standards [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][19][26]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton is 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is still in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce, and most quotes are above CF09+1200. The basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09+1450, with a small amount lower than this price, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved as the peak season approaches. Low-price resources have decreased, and the trading center has slightly increased, but market operations remain cautious. Downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large-scale restocking actions. The all-cotton grey fabric market has shown little improvement, with only partial sales slightly better. Currently, fabric mills still have few orders, and the inquiry and trading situation in the domestic market has not improved significantly, while only a small number of export orders have been placed [7]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's Tuesday supply and demand report, due to a significant reduction in the planting area, the US cotton production and ending stocks are far lower than market expectations, and bullish sentiment has been quickly released. Without weather speculation, the market is closely watching the subsequent export sales data for the 2025/26 season to verify the actual demand intensity after the USDA's production cut. In the short term, the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - In the domestic market, the China Cotton Association's survey of cotton growth and expected production in July shows that the total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. There are still some differences in the expected opening price of new cotton. Ginners expect it to be 6 yuan/kg or lower, while farmers mostly expect it to be around 6.5 yuan/kg. Some post-point pricing resources of new cotton have started pre - sales, with the basis of 41 double 29 - grade resources around 850 - 1000 yuan/ton. The downstream market has shown a marginal improvement. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics, and the sales of cotton yarn have also improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. With the weakening of external market support, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the China Cotton Association surveyed the cotton growth situation and expected production. The national cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The expected yield per mu is 153.8 kg, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the Zhengzhou cotton futures spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][18][30]

Report Title - New Crop's High-Yield Expectation Limits the Increase of Cotton Futures Price [1] Core View - The new crop's high-yield expectation restricts the increase of cotton futures prices. The cotton market shows a complex situation with different trends in various aspects such as futures prices, spot trading, and market demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 14,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.07% and a night - session closing price of 14,120 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change; CY2511 closed at 20,195 yuan/ton with a 0.90% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 20,185 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.7 cents/pound with a - 1.08% daily change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 645,549 lots, an increase of 329,664 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 784,336 lots, an increase of 34,927 lots; the trading volume of CY2511 was 10,265 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 19,810 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,006, a decrease of 81, and the effective forecast was 281, a decrease of 1; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, with an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,142 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a 0.66% increase; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase; the 3128B index was 15,188 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; the international cotton index M was 75.93 cents/pound, an increase of 2 cents/pound with a 2.21% increase [2] - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot Situation - The spot trading of cotton slightly improved, but the improvement was limited. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and the spot basis was generally stable. Different regions had different basis ranges for cotton sales [2][3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises' Situation - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slightly improved, with increased sales. Spinning mills raised their quotes, and the price center of cotton yarn slightly increased. The all - cotton grey fabric market was partially better, but the overall improvement was limited, with only small orders being traded. Downstream inquiries and orders recovered moderately. Dyeing mills' orders were average, and some expected an improvement in September orders. The loom factory's operating rate recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level remained high but showed a downward trend [2][3] US Cotton Situation - The ICE cotton futures slightly declined yesterday. After two consecutive days of increases, ICE cotton had a technical adjustment. However, the significant downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast in the USDA's August supply - demand report is expected to support the ICE cotton futures [2][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]