二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 11 日 棉花：暂无新驱动，期价回调 20260111 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 1 月 9 日当周，ICE 棉花冲高回落，主要跟随中国棉花价格波动，周初中国棉花期货和现货价格 大涨，内外棉价差大幅扩大，推动部分资金买入 ICE 棉花期货，ICE 棉花期货一度上冲至 65.76 美分/ 磅；下半周随着中国棉花期货回落、美棉周度出口数据不佳、以及美元走强，ICE 棉花期货也出现回落， 回到 64.5 美分/磅附近。 国内棉花期货和现货价格冲高回落，一方面受到整体商品市场情绪变化影响，另一方面也是基本面缺 乏新的驱动造成的。郑棉期货 05 合约最高触及 15095，现货价格一度超过 8 月份的高点，目前国内的棉 花供应还是很充足的，而下游的需求处于淡季，所以单纯从供需情况来看是要明显较 8 月份宽松的，另外 距离春节也还有一段时间，因此短期内下游并没有追高意愿；另外内外棉价差扩大也引发了一些进口棉和 纱增加的担忧；此外，市场关于 2026 年新疆棉花种植面积下降的预期，由于近期的一些会议上并没有进 一步 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7260 | 5110 | 3803 | 6514 | 432.2 | | 涨跌 | -56 | -34 | -44 | -50 | -3.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.76% | -0.89% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -36 | -44 | -194 | -54 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -36 | -187 | -70 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -8 | ...

郑棉盘整积蓄能量 涨势仍未结束 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年12月19日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 研究所 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 郑棉本周偏强震荡，周度涨幅1.19%。ICE期棉小幅震荡，周跌幅0.17%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 1、现货价格 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,000.00 70,000.00 100,000.00 90,000.00 120,000.00 30,000 80,000 130,000 180,000 230,000 280,000 330,000 ...

研究所 郑棉向上突破 整体偏强运行 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年12月12日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 郑棉本周走强，周度涨幅0.95%。ICE期棉小幅震荡，周涨幅0.01%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,000.00 70,000.00 100,000.00 90,000.00 30,000 80,000 130,000 180,000 230,000 280,000 330,000 380,000 430,000 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10月份进口棉花9万吨，同比减少2万吨。 研究所 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price decline of 2.08% on November 21, with a current price of 14.60 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 35.11 billion CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 67.397 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion CNY [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 50,100, a decrease of 28.96% from the previous period, with an average of 47,780 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 40.76% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Market Activity - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.78%, but has declined by 7.18% over the last five trading days [1] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.4667 million shares, and new entrant Penghua CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and although exports are not significantly affected in the near term, the long - term outlook is positive. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year [23]. - In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. Summary by Catalog 1.江阴地区短纤工厂调研情况汇总 1.1 近期内需和销售订单情况 - Short - fiber factories reported that recent domestic demand was generally good. In November, the demand situation was significantly better than in previous years. The market was dominated by rigid - demand purchases, and there was relatively little speculative demand. Differentiated products such as color - spun, cationic, and recycled black silk were in high demand and had tight supply. Enterprises were optimistic about the continuation of this peak season, expecting it to last until December or mid - to - late December [8]. 1.2 近期出口需求情况以及公司海外布局情况 - The export demand of short - fiber enterprises remained stable, with an export proportion generally between 20% - 30%. Main export markets included Europe, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. Short - fiber enterprises were cautious about overseas layout and mainly focused on market expansion. They were confident about next year's exports [9]. 1.3 近期工厂的开工和利润 - Short - fiber factories maintained a high operating rate, basically at full capacity. Current processing profits were generally good, and enterprises optimized cash flow by configuring differentiated products. Some enterprises might be more active in annual long - term contract negotiations or reduce the contract scale [10]. 1.4 当前原料库存情况 - The current raw material inventory of short - fiber factories was relatively stable. The difference mainly came from the procurement model. Some PTA inventories were maintained at 7 - 10 days, and MEG inventories were about 10 days. Raw material procurement was mainly through contracts, with a contract ratio of about 50% - 60% [11]. 1.5 当前成品库存情况 - The overall finished - product inventory was at a low level. Standard product inventories were generally controlled within 7 - 10 days, and some enterprise inventories of certain models dropped to single - digit levels. Non - standard product inventories were relatively high, but the overall pressure was not large [12]. 1.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were relatively optimistic about the short - term market, but had different views on the demand after December. They expected the export market to maintain stable growth next year, but also needed to pay attention to the impact of polyester capacity expansion in regions such as India and Indonesia [14]. 2. 江浙织造、家纺企业调研情况汇总 2.1 近期内需和销售情况 - The recent domestic demand of polyester terminals was differentiated, with clothing performing better than home textiles, knitting better than weaving, and texturing better than fabric - making. The terminal demand was mainly domestic, with good demand for autumn and winter clothing and ammonia - spandex super - soft home clothes, while the demand for traditional home textile categories was relatively weak. Seasonal orders recovered from mid - October to November, but the sustainability of new orders was insufficient [15]. 2.2 近期开工和利润情况 - Most enterprises had a high operating rate for different reasons. In terms of profit, texturing showed a month - on - month recovery, the grey fabric sector was basically at the break - even point, and fabric profits were generally average. Enterprises tried various methods to make up for comprehensive profits [16]. 2.3 近期出口需求情况以及海外布局情况 - After the new tariff negotiation, some foreign trade shipments improved, but there was no surge in textile and clothing exports. Enterprises were actively seeking overseas development opportunities, but overseas projects still faced uncertainties [17]. 2.4 企业当前的原料和库存情况 - Raw material procurement was relatively cautious, mainly spot purchases for immediate use. The raw material inventory cycle was mostly 15 - 30 days, and some enterprises stocked up until mid - November [20]. 2.5 企业当前的成品库存情况 - The inventory levels of enterprises were differentiated. Most enterprises had low physical inventories, significantly lower than during the trade war in the first half of the year. Some enterprises reduced inventory through production cuts and price reductions [21]. 2.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were cautious about the pre - holiday market and expected to consider early holidays in mid - January to control inventory. In the long term, factors such as intensified domestic competition and tariff policy fluctuations would continue to pressure the industry [22]. 3. 总结与展望 - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and exports are expected to improve in the long term. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year. The resilience of the terminal is stronger than the market expected. It is not recommended to bet against demand too early [23]. - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation result has not brought obvious export growth, the overall export tariff has dropped to more than 30%, and the long - term tax rate expectation is relatively stable, which is beneficial to exports in the long run [24]. - The fiber sector has high operating rates, low inventories, and neutral profits, and can maintain its operation. In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. 4. 附录：调研信息汇总表 - The appendix provides detailed information on the surveyed enterprises, including their general situation, recent operating and profit conditions, domestic demand and sales, export demand, raw material and finished - product inventory, overseas layout, and outlook for future market conditions [35][38]

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures closed higher with fluctuations. For example, CF2601 opened at 13,535 yuan/ton, closed at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2605 opened at 13,545 yuan/ton, closed at 13,615 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2609 opened at 13,715 yuan/ton, closed at 13,785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [7] - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton had various prices and basis quotes [7] - Pure cotton yarn trading was mediocre. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were weaker than the previous two weeks. The grey fabric market had poor production and sales, with no large orders and difficult access to export orders [8] Operation Suggestions - In the domestic market, Xinjiang seed cotton procurement is approaching the end, with short - term driving forces weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and low - basis transactions are good. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is rigid demand. From November 10, 2025, the import tariff rate of US cotton quota will drop from 26% to 11%. The overall trading center is expected to move up slowly with fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of alternative delivery goods for cotton futures starting from the 2026/27 production year. For out - of - range color grades due to natural variation during the re - evaluation period, the premium and discount will refer to the "2025 November Saw - ginned Fine - staple Cotton Quality Price Difference Table" issued by the China Cotton Association [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, and various price spreads and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Short fiber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 6180.00 yuan, with a current price of 6168.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.82% [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Short fiber production load has risen to approximately 95.4%, indicating a high level. A 250,000-ton short fiber plant in Fujian is undergoing maintenance for two weeks, affecting 1.4D cotton-type short fiber production [1] - Demand side: Sales of direct-spun polyester short fibers show a significant disparity, with an average production and sales rate of 67%. Downstream operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang show varying load rates: 81% for texturing, 69% for weaving, and 78% for dyeing. Raw material inventory levels at terminal factories are lower by 3-7 days and higher by 15-25 days [1] - Overall, the supply remains at a high level while demand is average, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation, although cost support is weak [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Southwest Futures predicts that short fiber prices will fluctuate in line with cost movements [1] - Ruida Futures anticipates that short fiber prices will follow the volatility of crude oil prices, influenced by the U.S. government's plan to replenish strategic petroleum reserves by 1 million barrels [1] - Current production of polyester short fibers in China stands at 164,900 tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.16%. The average operating rate in the pure polyester yarn industry is 73.35%, showing a slight increase [1] - As of October 16, the inventory levels for polyester short fiber factories in China are 6.11 days, a decrease of 1.47 days from the previous period, while physical inventory is at 13.40 days, down by 1.19 days [1]

Group 1 - The company, Taihua New Materials (603055.SH), primarily produces nylon filament, fabric, and functional finished fabrics [2] - The company also sells a small amount of engineering plastic-grade chips generated during the polymerization process [2]