20260227申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 申银万国期货研究所 黄莹(执业编号：F3053602；投资咨询编号：Z0015364） huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 5301 | 5285 | 5251 | 14.37 | 13.95 | 14.28 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 5267 | 5248 | 5244 | 14.56 | 13.96 | 14.28 | | | 涨跌 | 34 | 37 | 7 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0 | | 期 | 涨跌幅% | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.13 | -1.30 | -0.07 | 0.00 | | 货 | 持仓量 | 137901 | 462071 | 2012 | 33363 | 203988 | 137480 | | 市 | 成交量 | 51265 | 341075 ...

中新网四川新闻2月26日电(陈扬善 周媛 许明扬)人勤春来早，马年奋蹄疾。24日，农历马年开工第一 天，当很多人还沉浸在春节的余韵中，乐至县各大工业企业已经"满血复活"，吹响了复工复产的"集结 号"。实地探访多家企业，扑面而来的不是节后的慵懒，而是机器轰鸣、干劲十足的繁忙景象。 工人对产 品进行装箱打包。许明扬 摄 "今年是马年，寓意奔跑和跨越，我们也是铆足了劲儿！"四川星马重工常务副总刘永彪的声音里透着信 心。他告诉记者，目前40余名一线工人已到岗，正精神饱满地赶制订单。 为啥这么拼？因为订单实在太多了！"我们的智能施工升降机技术领先，市场认可度很高，目前的订单 已经排到了6月份！"刘永彪透露。 为了应对源源不断的订单，企业在开年第一天就同步启动了"抢人"大战。"我们正在紧锣密鼓地进行工 人招聘，预计还要再招50人左右！"刘永彪表示，新的一年，企业将坚持以科技创新为引擎，严把质量 关，以硬核智造助力地方工业提质增效，奋力实现全年发展目标。 作为乐至县纺织产业的代表，四川联友纺织工业有限公司的生产车间同样是一片热火朝天。 四川星马 重工机械有限公司工人工作现场。许明扬 摄 从智能装备制造到传统纺织产业，大家正 ...

截至发稿，闫冬累计任职时间6年345天，现任基金资产总规模217.96亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 456.3%， 任职期间最差基金回报-41.27%。 从桐昆股份十大流通股东角度 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 数据显示，鹏华基金旗下1只基金位居桐昆股份十大流通股东。鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A （014942）三季度新进十大流通股东，持有股数2527.48万股，占流通股的比例为1.05%。根据测算，今 日浮盈赚取约2931.87万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 2月24日，桐昆股份涨5%，截至发稿，报24.34元/股，成交3.92亿元，换手率0.69%，总市值584.22亿 元。 鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A（014942）成立日期2022年3月8日，最新规模1.16亿。今年以来 收益9.61%，同类排名1182/5580；近一年收益49.39%，同类排名877/4297；成立以来收益1.3%。 资料显示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hangmin Co., Ltd. (stock code: 600987), primarily engages in indirect exports, accounting for approximately 60% of its business, with direct clients being fabric traders rather than end clothing brands [1] Group 1 - The company has established a supply chain system by integrating into the networks of internationally recognized brands through factory verification based on overseas customer demands [1]

研究所 郑棉转为窄幅震荡 节前资金流出 ——国信期货棉花周报 2026年2月6日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 郑棉本周小幅震荡，周度跌幅0.61%。ICE期棉偏弱震荡，周跌幅2.09%。 1、现货价格 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 2026年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 本周棉花价格指数回落。3128指数较上周下跌171元/吨，2129指数较上周下跌158元/吨。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30, ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures fluctuated following the price of Chinese cotton, rising at the beginning of the week and falling later. The report maintains the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and waits for the determination of phased support [1][2][17] - It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [2][17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 64.30, high price 65.76, low price 64.24, close price 64.48, change 0.47, change rate 0.73%, trading volume 152,672 lots, trading volume change 76,763 lots, open interest 171,048 lots, open interest change -6,364 lots [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 14,600, high price 15,095, low price 14,515, close price 14,675, change 90, change rate 0.62%, trading volume 2,666,762 lots, trading volume change 1,519,133 lots, open interest 848,986 lots, open interest change -11,739 lots [5] - Cotton Yarn Main Continuous: Open price 20,590, high price 21,200, low price 20,500, close price 20,690, change 105, change rate 0.51%, trading volume 57,242 lots, trading volume change 20,545 lots, open interest 16,816 lots, open interest change -2,774 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton futures rose and then fell this week, mainly following the price of Chinese cotton. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in Chinese cotton futures and spot prices widened the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, driving some funds to buy ICE cotton futures, which once reached 65.76 cents per pound. In the second half of the week, as Chinese cotton futures fell, the weekly US cotton export data was poor, and the US dollar strengthened, ICE cotton futures also declined, returning to around 64.5 cents per pound [1][5] - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,900 tons, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. The total signing volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.5425 million tons, accounting for 59% of the annual forecasted export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 710,400 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [6] - India: The import tariff on cotton has been restored since January 1, 2026, with a comprehensive tax rate of 11%, causing the cotton price to rise [7] - Brazil: In December, the export volume of raw cotton reached 452,000 tons, setting a new monthly export record. From July to December, the export volume of raw cotton was 1.532 million tons, an 11% increase from the same period last year and a 28% increase from the same period in the previous production season. As of January 3, the national cotton planting progress was about 31%, about 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [8] - Pakistan: The export demand for yarn has improved. The total cotton output this year is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The domestic cotton market trading is light, and the supply of high - quality cotton is tight. The price and demand in the domestic yarn market have shown a mild recovery [8] - Bangladesh: In December, the export value of ready - made garments was $3.23 billion, a 3% increase from November but a 14% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative export value in the first six months of this fiscal year was $19.4 billion, a 3% decrease from the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year. The textile mills are still under pressure due to energy supply shortages, high raw material costs, and low corporate profits [9][10] Domestic Cotton Situation - The price of domestic cotton futures and spot first rose and then fell. The trading volume of cotton spot improved compared with last week. The one - price of cotton spot first rose and then fell with Zhengzhou cotton, and the sales basis of spot remained stable overall [11] - As of January 9, there were 7,388 registered warehouse receipts and 2,299 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,687 receipts, equivalent to 406,854 tons [11] - The prices of cotton yarn and grey cloth increased, but the trading volume was average. The market for pure cotton yarn was mainly for rigid demand. The demand for high - count combed yarn was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. The price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the increase could only cover 50% - 60% of the increase in cotton price. The opening rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, and the inventory accumulated; the opening rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained high, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. The price of the full - cotton grey cloth market increased, but the actual trading was difficult to follow up [12] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., with data sources from mysteel and tteb [14][15][16] 4. Operational Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and wait for the determination of phased support. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to remain in a high - level volatile market supported by cost, and it is recommended to hold long spreads. PTA is also in a high - level volatile market driven by cost, and long spreads operation should be maintained. MEG has limited upside space and faces medium - term pressure, and short spreads operation is advised [1][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7260, 5110, 3803, 6514, and 432.2 respectively, with daily changes of - 56, - 34, - 44, - 50, and - 3.9, and daily change rates of - 0.77%, - 0.66%, - 1.14%, - 0.76%, and - 0.89% [2] - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 894 dollars/ton, 5097 yuan/ton, 3678, 530.12 dollars/ton, and 60.98 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 363.88, 361.63, 120.64, 43.68, and - 4.34 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - **PX**: As of January 4, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 80.9% [2] - **PTA**: The PTA load was 78.1%. Dushan Energy's 250 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 120 - million - ton plant restarted at a low load, and Weilian Chemical's 250 - million - ton plant increased its load [3] - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan stopped for catalyst replacement at the end of December 2025, with an expected duration of about 2 weeks. A 615,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Kuwait plans to stop for maintenance on January 9, with an expected maintenance duration of about one month. As of January 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.73% (a 1.58% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 75.86% (a 0.51% decrease from the previous period) [3][4] - **Polyester**: The operating load of large domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn at around 75% (starting from January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 3.28 million tons). As of Sunday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of less than 40% as of 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% as of 3 pm [4] 3.3 Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - **Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 74%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms dropped to 59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of dyeing remained at 69% [5] - **Raw Material Stockpiling**: Terminal factories mainly consumed raw material stocks this week, and raw material purchases were mainly for new orders. The raw material purchase volumes of terminal factories varied widely. Currently, the stockpiles of production factories are concentrated between 1 - 3 weeks, and some with more stockpiles still have 1 - 2 months' worth [5] - **Orders and Prices**: New orders in the weaving sector remained weak, with some foreign trade and spring - summer new orders being slightly followed up. The inventory of grey fabric continued to accumulate. The prices of conventional grey fabric varieties declined locally, and the nominal cash - flow losses of grey fabric widened [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, while that of MEG is 0 [6] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: With strong cost support, long spreads should be held. After the US air - strike on Venezuela on January 3, oil prices are expected to rise in the short - term, supporting the valuation of PX. The 1 - million - ton plant of Fujia Dahua restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for its planned start - up in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate is 88%. For domestic PTA plants, the processing fee of the 05 contract on the futures market has risen to over 300 yuan/ton. The 2.5 - million - ton plant of Xin Fengming Phase 1 and the 1.2 - million - ton plant of Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate is expected to remain at around 78% [6] - **PTA**: In a cost - driven market, the bullish pattern is difficult to disprove for now, and long spreads operation should be maintained. The situation of PTA domestic plants is the same as that mentioned for PX. The profits of polyester filament factories have been declining, leading to a decrease in operating enthusiasm, but the current decline in polyester operating rate is not significant. Coupled with the large - scale export of PTA to India in December, the PTA segment is still in a state of continuous inventory reduction [6][7] - **MEG**: Although it is affected by the rising valuation of oil and coal prices in the short - term, its medium - term trend remains weak, and short spreads operation is recommended. The domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level of 73.73%. The 200,000 - ton plant of Guangxi Huayi restarted. Overseas, plants in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons), Kuwait (530,000 tons), and Iran (400,000 tons) are under maintenance. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline marginally in January - February. The operating rate of polyester plants is 90.8%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is decreasing. The polyester load is expected to drop from 89% in January to 84% in February [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton is not over yet, and it is accumulating energy during the consolidation period [2] - In the short - term, with the support of increasing positions, there may still be room for Zhengzhou cotton to rise. In the medium - term, it is highly probable that the center of Zhengzhou cotton price will move up [53] - The short - term upside of US cotton remains under pressure, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [53][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a relatively strong oscillation this week, with a weekly increase of 1.19%. ICE cotton futures had a slight oscillation, with a weekly decrease of 0.17% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 114 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As a large amount of new cotton was launched on the market, the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage, and the commercial inventory of cotton in the second half of November was 4.6836 million tons [19][20] 3.1.4 Downstream Inventory Situation - In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28] 3.1.5 Yarn Price - This week, the yarn price increased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn was raised by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 751. The number of warehouse receipts was 3619, and the effective forecast was 3949, with a total of 7568 [37] 3.1.7 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only the data source of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price was provided [41] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of November 27, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 135,900 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 4500 bales [43][47] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 23.7%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 22.5%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 9.9%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.0%. The total proportion of drought - affected areas (D1 - D4) was 34.0% [50] 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) 3.2.1 Domestic Market - This week, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly around 14,000 yuan/ton, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. From the perspective of inspection data, the amount of inspected cotton has reached about three - quarters of the expected output, with a year - on - year increase of more than 600,000 tons. Currently, the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton price may face significant hedging pressure, but in the medium - term, it is likely that the center of gravity will move up [53] 3.2.2 International Market - The international market oscillated within a narrow range. The US cotton sales were not ideal, the Chinese market maintained a small - scale signing volume, and the overall shipment process remained stable. The weak export data had a certain suppressing effect on the US cotton trend. In India, the launch of new cotton accelerated, the purchase by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) increased, the export volume rebounded significantly, and the textile and clothing exports rebounded month - on - month. However, the upward trend of domestic cotton prices in India may not last. Macroscopically, concerns about the US recession increased, and the short - term upside of US cotton remained under pressure [53] 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through upwards this week. With the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, Zhengzhou cotton may challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark despite facing upward pressure [56]. - Internationally, the market fluctuated narrowly. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report was bearish, and U.S. cotton's weekly export data was weak. Short - term U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zhengzhou cotton strengthened this week with a weekly increase of 0.95%, while ICE cotton fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.01% [11]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose 16 yuan/ton and the 2129 index rose 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [16]. - **Import Situation**: In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [21]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the second half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [22]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained flat, while the prices of carded 32 - count and combed 40 - count cotton yarns increased by 30 yuan/ton [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: This week, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts plus forecasts increased by 1,062, with 2,967 warehouse receipts and 3,585 valid forecasts, totaling 6,552 [40]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of November 13, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current year increased by 187,600 bales, and for the next year, it was 17,600 bales [47]. - **U.S. Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 33.8%, with different drought levels having different coverage percentages [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic market: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's planting area, although it faces upward pressure [56]. - International market: U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term due to a bearish USDA report and weak export data [56].

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price decline of 2.08% on November 21, with a current price of 14.60 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 35.11 billion CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 67.397 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion CNY [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 50,100, a decrease of 28.96% from the previous period, with an average of 47,780 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 40.76% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Market Activity - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.78%, but has declined by 7.18% over the last five trading days [1] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.4667 million shares, and new entrant Penghua CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF [3]