11月21日，桐昆股份盘中下跌2.08%，截至10:03，报14.60元/股，成交1.73亿元，换手率0.49%，总市值 351.10亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 桐昆股份所属申万行业为：石油石化-炼化及贸易-其他石化。所属概念板块包括：破净股、中盘、融资 融券、增持回购、MSCI中国等。 截至9月30日，桐昆股份股东户数5.01万，较上期减少28.96%；人均流通股47780股，较上期增加 40.76%。2025年1月-9月，桐昆股份实现营业收入673.97亿元，同比减少11.38%；归母净利润15.49亿 元，同比增长53.83%。 分红方面，桐昆股份A股上市后累计派现32.03亿元。近三年，累计派现3.41亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，桐昆股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股3592.21万股，相比上期增加946.67万股。鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A （014942）位居第八大流通股东，持股2527.48万股，为新进股东。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第 九大流通股东，持股2450.55万股，相比上期减少48.23万股。汇丰晋信新动力混合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and although exports are not significantly affected in the near term, the long - term outlook is positive. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year [23]. - In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. Summary by Catalog 1.江阴地区短纤工厂调研情况汇总 1.1 近期内需和销售订单情况 - Short - fiber factories reported that recent domestic demand was generally good. In November, the demand situation was significantly better than in previous years. The market was dominated by rigid - demand purchases, and there was relatively little speculative demand. Differentiated products such as color - spun, cationic, and recycled black silk were in high demand and had tight supply. Enterprises were optimistic about the continuation of this peak season, expecting it to last until December or mid - to - late December [8]. 1.2 近期出口需求情况以及公司海外布局情况 - The export demand of short - fiber enterprises remained stable, with an export proportion generally between 20% - 30%. Main export markets included Europe, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. Short - fiber enterprises were cautious about overseas layout and mainly focused on market expansion. They were confident about next year's exports [9]. 1.3 近期工厂的开工和利润 - Short - fiber factories maintained a high operating rate, basically at full capacity. Current processing profits were generally good, and enterprises optimized cash flow by configuring differentiated products. Some enterprises might be more active in annual long - term contract negotiations or reduce the contract scale [10]. 1.4 当前原料库存情况 - The current raw material inventory of short - fiber factories was relatively stable. The difference mainly came from the procurement model. Some PTA inventories were maintained at 7 - 10 days, and MEG inventories were about 10 days. Raw material procurement was mainly through contracts, with a contract ratio of about 50% - 60% [11]. 1.5 当前成品库存情况 - The overall finished - product inventory was at a low level. Standard product inventories were generally controlled within 7 - 10 days, and some enterprise inventories of certain models dropped to single - digit levels. Non - standard product inventories were relatively high, but the overall pressure was not large [12]. 1.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were relatively optimistic about the short - term market, but had different views on the demand after December. They expected the export market to maintain stable growth next year, but also needed to pay attention to the impact of polyester capacity expansion in regions such as India and Indonesia [14]. 2. 江浙织造、家纺企业调研情况汇总 2.1 近期内需和销售情况 - The recent domestic demand of polyester terminals was differentiated, with clothing performing better than home textiles, knitting better than weaving, and texturing better than fabric - making. The terminal demand was mainly domestic, with good demand for autumn and winter clothing and ammonia - spandex super - soft home clothes, while the demand for traditional home textile categories was relatively weak. Seasonal orders recovered from mid - October to November, but the sustainability of new orders was insufficient [15]. 2.2 近期开工和利润情况 - Most enterprises had a high operating rate for different reasons. In terms of profit, texturing showed a month - on - month recovery, the grey fabric sector was basically at the break - even point, and fabric profits were generally average. Enterprises tried various methods to make up for comprehensive profits [16]. 2.3 近期出口需求情况以及海外布局情况 - After the new tariff negotiation, some foreign trade shipments improved, but there was no surge in textile and clothing exports. Enterprises were actively seeking overseas development opportunities, but overseas projects still faced uncertainties [17]. 2.4 企业当前的原料和库存情况 - Raw material procurement was relatively cautious, mainly spot purchases for immediate use. The raw material inventory cycle was mostly 15 - 30 days, and some enterprises stocked up until mid - November [20]. 2.5 企业当前的成品库存情况 - The inventory levels of enterprises were differentiated. Most enterprises had low physical inventories, significantly lower than during the trade war in the first half of the year. Some enterprises reduced inventory through production cuts and price reductions [21]. 2.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were cautious about the pre - holiday market and expected to consider early holidays in mid - January to control inventory. In the long term, factors such as intensified domestic competition and tariff policy fluctuations would continue to pressure the industry [22]. 3. 总结与展望 - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and exports are expected to improve in the long term. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year. The resilience of the terminal is stronger than the market expected. It is not recommended to bet against demand too early [23]. - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation result has not brought obvious export growth, the overall export tariff has dropped to more than 30%, and the long - term tax rate expectation is relatively stable, which is beneficial to exports in the long run [24]. - The fiber sector has high operating rates, low inventories, and neutral profits, and can maintain its operation. In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. 4. 附录：调研信息汇总表 - The appendix provides detailed information on the surveyed enterprises, including their general situation, recent operating and profit conditions, domestic demand and sales, export demand, raw material and finished - product inventory, overseas layout, and outlook for future market conditions [35][38]

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures closed higher with fluctuations. For example, CF2601 opened at 13,535 yuan/ton, closed at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2605 opened at 13,545 yuan/ton, closed at 13,615 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2609 opened at 13,715 yuan/ton, closed at 13,785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [7] - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton had various prices and basis quotes [7] - Pure cotton yarn trading was mediocre. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were weaker than the previous two weeks. The grey fabric market had poor production and sales, with no large orders and difficult access to export orders [8] Operation Suggestions - In the domestic market, Xinjiang seed cotton procurement is approaching the end, with short - term driving forces weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and low - basis transactions are good. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is rigid demand. From November 10, 2025, the import tariff rate of US cotton quota will drop from 26% to 11%. The overall trading center is expected to move up slowly with fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of alternative delivery goods for cotton futures starting from the 2026/27 production year. For out - of - range color grades due to natural variation during the re - evaluation period, the premium and discount will refer to the "2025 November Saw - ginned Fine - staple Cotton Quality Price Difference Table" issued by the China Cotton Association [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, and various price spreads and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Short fiber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 6180.00 yuan, with a current price of 6168.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.82% [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Short fiber production load has risen to approximately 95.4%, indicating a high level. A 250,000-ton short fiber plant in Fujian is undergoing maintenance for two weeks, affecting 1.4D cotton-type short fiber production [1] - Demand side: Sales of direct-spun polyester short fibers show a significant disparity, with an average production and sales rate of 67%. Downstream operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang show varying load rates: 81% for texturing, 69% for weaving, and 78% for dyeing. Raw material inventory levels at terminal factories are lower by 3-7 days and higher by 15-25 days [1] - Overall, the supply remains at a high level while demand is average, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation, although cost support is weak [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Southwest Futures predicts that short fiber prices will fluctuate in line with cost movements [1] - Ruida Futures anticipates that short fiber prices will follow the volatility of crude oil prices, influenced by the U.S. government's plan to replenish strategic petroleum reserves by 1 million barrels [1] - Current production of polyester short fibers in China stands at 164,900 tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.16%. The average operating rate in the pure polyester yarn industry is 73.35%, showing a slight increase [1] - As of October 16, the inventory levels for polyester short fiber factories in China are 6.11 days, a decrease of 1.47 days from the previous period, while physical inventory is at 13.40 days, down by 1.19 days [1]

Group 1 - The company, Taihua New Materials (603055.SH), primarily produces nylon filament, fabric, and functional finished fabrics [2] - The company also sells a small amount of engineering plastic-grade chips generated during the polymerization process [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decrease in revenue for H1 2025, but managed to achieve a slight increase in net profit, indicating stable overall performance despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.38%. Net profit for the quarter was 486 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.04% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.54% [1]. Product Pricing and Cost Dynamics - The prices of polyester products followed the decline in costs, with major products' prices showing year-on-year decreases: POY at 6,160.30 yuan/ton (-9.99%), FDY at 6,464.69 yuan/ton (-15.90%), DTY at 7,688.11 yuan/ton (-9.07%), and PTA at 4,267.54 yuan/ton (-19.11%) [2]. - The procurement prices for key raw materials were PX at 6,040.91 yuan/ton (-18.92%), PTA at 4,284.51 yuan/ton (-18.06%), and MEG at 4,016.97 yuan/ton (+0.71%) [2]. Strategic Expansion - The company successfully expanded into the coal sector by acquiring high-quality coal mine resources in the Turpan region, with reserves of 500 million tons and an initial mining scale of 5 million tons/year [3]. - The coal quality is noted for its high calorific value and low impurities, which will enhance the company's overall production capabilities [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from policy implementations and seasonal demand recovery, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 2.277 billion, 2.750 billion, and 2.965 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.1, 12.5, and 11.6 for the years 2025-2027, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for chemical fibers is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in short fiber futures, which have seen a slight decline of 1.62% to 6326.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Dynamics - New Lake Futures indicates that both spot and traders are maintaining profit margins while selling, with downstream pricing at lower levels and acceptable transaction volumes. The mainstream negotiation range for semi-dull 1.4D is between 6350 and 6700 yuan/ton [1] - Southwest Futures reports an improvement in sales of polyester yarn, with downstream weaving and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang operating at load rates of 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Raw material inventory levels are cautiously optimistic, with a concentration of 10-20 days, while some factories have inventory exceeding one month [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, as of August 28, the equity inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China stands at 6.86 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous period. Physical inventory is at 14.42 days, up by 0.66 days [1] Future Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that short fiber prices have slightly retreated after an initial rise, indicating that the overall strength of the polyester sector remains insufficient. Seasonal improvements in terminal orders are noted, with a slight rebound in short fiber production and limited inventory accumulation. However, further observation is needed regarding the sustainability of terminal order recovery and its impact on production increases, suggesting limited upward potential in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nylon industry is experiencing weakened supply and demand, leading to pressure on the performance of Taihua New Materials in the second quarter of 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Taihua New Materials achieved operating revenue of 3.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.58% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million yuan, down 23.31% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 205 million yuan, down 44.71% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.36% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.46% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 162 million yuan, down 40.92% year-on-year and 0.73% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Industry Analysis - The nylon industry is facing significant market pressure due to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand after previous growth and capacity expansion [3]. - The average Brent crude oil price in the first half of 2025 was $71 per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, impacting raw material prices [3]. - Prices for key raw materials, caprolactam and nylon chips, fell by 26.01% and 15.18% year-on-year, respectively, while the price of nylon filament decreased by 10.28% [3]. Competitive Position - Taihua New Materials has a strong competitive edge with its integrated production capacity across the nylon industry chain, including recycling, polymerization, spinning, and weaving [4]. - The company is investing $100 million to establish a new production base in Vietnam, which is expected to enhance global supply capabilities and market share [4]. - The company’s export revenue in the first half of 2025 was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 20% [4]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Taihua New Materials from 2025 to 2027 are 756 million yuan, 977 million yuan, and 1.230 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%, 29.2%, and 25.9%, respectively [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.85 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.38 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.16, 8.64, and 6.86 times [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a "Cautious Bullish" rating on the cotton industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Considering the current de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory and the import situation, the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton goes on the market still exists. There is still some short - term support for the market due to the high - production capacity and the possibility of a small - scale pick - up in some areas. However, the expected increase in this year's new cotton production and the possibility of early listing limit the upside space and time. In terms of demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market has started, with the operating rate and orders gradually improving, but the demand performance needs further observation. It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips and consider adjusting the long - short rhythm according to the year - on - year demand situation in September [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Review - **Macro**: China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument will be launched. Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly eased, and the cotton excellent - rate has slightly rebounded. Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is the slowest in the past five years [4] - **Supply**: In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has eased, and Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is slow. Domestically, most of Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the boll - splitting stage, and some may be listed early in early October. The import quota policy has not been introduced, and the import volume in July did not effectively ease the tight inventory [4] - **Inventory**: Domestically, the commercial de - stocking of cotton is still fast and lower than the same period. The downstream terminal products are also slightly de - stocking, with pure - cotton products de - stocking faster than blended products [4] - **Demand**: Domestically, the "Golden September and Silver October" has started, with orders accelerating and the operating rate rising but still lower than the same period. The trading volume in the light - textile market has recovered, but the pure - cotton fabric trading has not recovered well. Externally, the textile and clothing export data in July was under pressure [4] 2. August USDA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The US cotton production and ending inventory in the August USDA supply - demand balance sheet were significantly revised down, which was more bullish than expected. For example, the US cotton production was revised down from 315 (July) to 262.7 (August) [5] 3. Cotton Futures and Spot - The weekly average cotton price and the basis both declined significantly [6] 4. Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The weekly cotton - yarn price declined along with the cotton price [13] 5. Supply - **Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: This week, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 153,500 tons to 1.7126 million tons, lower than the same period. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn in the factory all decreased [16] - **Imported Cotton**: In July, the imported cotton resources increased month - on - month but were still weak year - on - year, with a total of about 150,766 tons [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased by 564 to 7,198, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was equivalent to 290,400 tons of cotton [20] 6. Demand - **Operating Rate and Orders**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.3% to 65.8%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.2% to 37%. The spinning mill's orders increased by 3.06 days to 11.42 days. The spinning profit improved [22] - **Light - Textile Market**: The total trading volume in the light - textile market increased, but the cotton - fabric trading volume decreased. The prices of fabric and accessories in the Keqiao market declined [25] - **Retail Sales**: In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles above the designated size increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with a slightly slower growth rate than in June [28] - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports increased by 0.6%. In July, the exports decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month. Exports to the US, ASEAN, and the EU all weakened to varying degrees [30][33] - **PMI**: In July, the cotton - spinning industry PMI decreased by 12% to 35.71%, and sub - indicators such as new orders and operating rate also declined [35] 7. CFTC Positioning Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors decreased slightly [36] 8. Macro - China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and a large - scale policy - based financial instrument will be launched [4]