20250823棉系周报： 短期去库仍存支撑 关注下游旺季表现 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年8月23日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中国央行15日发布的2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告(下称"报告")表示，把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策 的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平。 | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | 2、据21世纪经济报道,规模高达5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具将出,重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域,具体包括数字 | | | | 经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等，国家开发银行、中国农业发展 | | | | 银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其中。 | | | | 国际方面，近期美国棉区干旱程度略有缓解，推动优良率出现小幅回转、预计8月中旬得州仍有少量降水，8月下旬仍有少量 | | 供应 | | 降水。巴西新棉收获进度近半，为五 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the upward pressure on cotton prices remains significant, and the driving force is weak. Considering the global and domestic cotton market conditions, it is expected that the cotton price will face substantial upward pressure, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35]. Summary According to the Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - **Global 2025/26 Cotton Supply and Demand**: In the USDA's June report, for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, beginning/ending stocks, and trade volume are all adjusted downward. Production is cut by over 800,000 bales, with an increase in China's output and decreases in India, the US, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced by over 300,000 bales. Ending stocks decline by nearly 1.6 million bales, and the stock - to - use ratio drops 0.2 percentage points month - on - month and 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The global supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the production - consumption gap widens by 110,000 tons to - 170,000 tons [2]. - **US Cotton Supply and Weather**: The USDA's June report shows that for the 2025/26 season, US cotton production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks are adjusted downward month - on - month, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged. Due to excessive rainfall and delayed sowing, the harvested area is cut by 2 percentage points to 8.19 million acres, and the average yield per acre drops by over 1 percentage point to 820 pounds/acre. The US cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, 500,000 bales less than last month, the second - lowest in the past decade. Ending stocks are reduced by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. As of July 6, 2025, the US cotton (American cotton) good - to - excellent rate is 52%, slightly up from the previous week (51%) but lower than the same period last year (45%). The squaring rate is 48%, and the boll - setting rate is 14% [5][7]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - **Expected Domestic Cotton Production in 2025/26**: In 2024, the domestic weather was suitable during the new cotton planting and growing period, with a record - high yield per unit of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%, and the total national output was around 6.7 million tons. In June 2025, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's survey shows that the actual sown area in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.707 million mu or 6.3%. The expected total output will increase by 2.8% to 6.864 million tons, and the report estimates the output may be around 7 million tons [10]. - **Current Domestic Cotton Commercial and Industrial Inventories**: As of June 15, the national cotton commercial inventory is 3.1269 million tons, in a stable destocking state; the national cotton industrial inventory is 0.9301 million tons. The commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, and the industrial inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history, showing a state of low upstream inventory and high downstream inventory [14]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of the end of May 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises is 22.34 days, an increase of 1.3 days from last month and a decrease of 5.2 days year - on - year. The grey cloth inventory is 32.9 days, an increase of 1.7 days from last month and 2 days year - on - year. Yarn and grey cloth are continuously accumulating inventory [16][19]. - **Weak Textile and Apparel Export Performance**: The US is one of the main export destinations for China's textile and apparel. From January to May 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports are $116.67 billion, a 1% increase. Among them, textile exports are $58.48 billion, a 2.5% increase, and apparel exports are $58.2 billion, a 0.5% decrease. In May, textile and apparel exports are $26.21 billion, a 0.6% increase and an 8.4% month - on - month increase. Textile exports are $12.63 billion, a 1.9% decrease and a 0.4% month - on - month increase, and apparel exports are $13.58 billion, a 3% increase and a 17% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Consumption**: From January to May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are 20.3171 trillion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods are 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate rebounds by 1.3 percentage points month - on - month. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 122.5 billion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate expands by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Poor Downstream Immediate Textile Profits**: As of the end of June, the domestic immediate yarn - cotton price difference is around 5,400 yuan/ton, continuously declining this year and at a relatively low historical level. In 2024, the overall yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton. Downstream textile enterprises have suffered large losses for a long time, which has a significant negative feedback on the upstream raw material prices, and the low downstream profits make it difficult to actively replenish inventory [31]. Trading Logic - **Global Perspective**: According to the USDA balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is in a weak balance. The current US weather is favorable for cotton growth, and the US good - to - excellent rate remains at a high level. There is also a lot of uncertainty in global tariffs, and both supply and demand have large adjustment spaces [32][35]. - **Domestic Perspective**: Currently, the domestic commercial inventory is at a low level, but the industrial inventory is at a high level, and the downstream yarn and grey cloth inventories are continuously accumulating. The losses of downstream textile enterprises have generally increased, and even Xinjiang yarn mills are on the verge of break - even. The willingness of the industrial chain to replenish inventory is low [35]. - **Demand Aspect**: The export demand for textiles is weak, and domestic consumption is also sluggish. Under the situation of tariff frictions, there is a lot of uncertainty in future exports. It is difficult to see variables that can significantly improve consumption in the short term [35]. - **Price Outlook**: The high inventory of domestic cotton spinning mid - and downstream finished products, combined with widespread losses, restrains the willingness of future yarn mills and grey cloth mills to replenish raw material inventory. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has increased in the new season, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. It is expected that the upward pressure on cotton prices will still be significant, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The outdoor industry is expected to continue thriving, with significant growth potential driven by increasing participation in outdoor activities and supportive government policies [4][15] - The textile manufacturing sector is impacted by the recent US-Vietnam tariff agreement, which may lead to a shift in orders from China to Vietnam [3][14] - The home furnishing sector is awaiting favorable real estate policies to stabilize demand, with a notable increase in transaction volume in major cities [5][16] Textile Manufacturing - The US-Vietnam trade agreement has reduced tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US, potentially shifting some orders from China to Vietnam [3][14] - Labor-intensive manufacturing has largely moved to Southeast Asia due to rising costs and trade barriers in China, with key companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group having significant overseas production [3][14] - Vietnam's reliance on Chinese raw materials remains high, but there are long-term plans to reduce this dependency [3][14] Outdoor Industry - The ISPO SHANGHAI 2025 event showcased a significant increase in brand participation, indicating strong international interest in China's outdoor consumption potential [4][15] - The outdoor sports industry is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2025, supported by government initiatives and infrastructure development [4][15] - Domestic brands are gaining market share in the outdoor sector, leveraging innovative technologies [4][15] Home Furnishing - Recent surveys indicate a push for policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for home furnishing demand [5][16] - The transaction volume of commercial housing in major cities has increased by 19.4% year-on-year, signaling a potential recovery [5][16] - Key companies in the home furnishing sector are recommended for their strong dividend yields and market positioning, including Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [5][16] Light Industry Exports - The upcoming changes in US tariff policies could impact export expectations for light industry products [5][16] - Despite potential policy shifts, Chinese manufacturers with cost advantages remain competitive in the US market [5][16] - Companies like Jianlin Home and Craft Home are highlighted for their stable performance and low valuations [5][16]

Core Viewpoint - The report on Taihua New Materials highlights its significant competitive advantages in the nylon industry, driven by a comprehensive vertical integration strategy and a focus on high-end products, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Company Overview - Taihua New Materials is a leading player in the nylon industry with a complete supply chain from spinning, weaving to dyeing and finishing, achieving a production capacity of 345,000 tons of nylon yarn, 716 million meters of grey fabric, and 710 million meters of finished fabric [2]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major brands like Decathlon and BERSHKA, enhancing its customized service capabilities for high-end market expansion [2]. Industry Dynamics - The nylon industry is experiencing accelerated capacity expansion, with a clear differentiation between high-end and low-end products. Companies with high-end and customized production capabilities are expected to benefit from increased concentration in high-end products [3]. - The demand for nylon is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-10% from 2025 to 2027, with a potential 36% increase in demand by 2030 due to rising participation in outdoor sports [3]. Growth Drivers - The company's growth is supported by the ramp-up of its Huai'an project, which is expected to add significant production capacity, and the commercialization of its recycled nylon technology, PRUECO, which has received global certification [4]. - The Huai'an project is anticipated to generate profits of 329 million, 123 million, 411 million, and 411 million yuan upon full production [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 855 million, 1.066 billion, and 1.288 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 24.7%, and 20.8% [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are projected to be 0.96, 1.20, and 1.45 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.51, 7.62, and 6.31, indicating a valuation below the average of comparable companies [5].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Taihua New Materials Group Co., Ltd. maintains a stable long-term credit rating of AA, with its convertible bond "Tai 21" also rated AA, reflecting the company's strong industry position and competitive advantages in the textile sector [1][3]. Company Overview - The company is one of the few domestic textile enterprises with a complete industrial chain encompassing nylon recycling, regeneration, polymerization, spinning, weaving, and dyeing [3][5]. - As of the end of 2024, the company reported total assets of 117.85 billion yuan and equity of 50.55 billion yuan, with a significant increase in revenue and profit due to growing downstream demand and the gradual production of ongoing projects [10][19]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 71.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.78%, and a profit of 8.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 69.13% increase compared to the previous year [5][19]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities remained positive, covering investment expenditures, with a high coverage ratio of cash assets and EBITDA for the "Tai 21" convertible bond [4][7]. Industry Analysis - The textile industry is experiencing growth, with the production value of the textile sector increasing by 4.4% in 2024, reversing the decline seen in 2023 [12][13]. - The demand for nylon products is influenced by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly nylon chips, which are affected by upstream oil prices [15][21]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a competitive edge through its integrated industrial chain, product development, and technological research, which enhance its responsiveness to customer needs and reduce production costs [16][17]. - The company has established stable partnerships with several well-known domestic and international brands, further strengthening its market position [17][18]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces potential risks related to the volatility of raw material prices and the significant capital expenditure required for ongoing projects, which may impact cash flow and operational stability [6][21]. - As of the end of 2024, accounts receivable and inventory accounted for 29.90% of total assets, indicating a substantial occupation of working capital and potential risks related to inventory depreciation [5][6].

Company Overview - Hunan Huasheng Co., Ltd. is a joint-stock limited company established in accordance with the Company Law of the People's Republic of China and other relevant regulations [2][3] - The company was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its initial public offering of 85 million shares on February 16, 1998, and registered with the Hunan Provincial Market Supervision Administration [3][4] - The registered capital of the company is RMB 402,110,702 [3][4] Business Objectives and Scope - The company's business objective is to focus on its main responsibilities and operations, promoting high-quality development through brand operation, product marketing, and capital operation [5] - The business scope includes the development, production, and sale of ramie and other textile products, including yarns, fabrics, and home textiles [5] Share Structure - The company has issued a total of 402,110,702 shares, all of which are ordinary shares with no other categories [6] - The company’s shares are issued in accordance with principles of openness, fairness, and justice, ensuring equal rights for all shares of the same category [6][7] Share Issuance and Management - The company can increase its capital through various methods, including public offerings, private placements, and bonus shares, subject to shareholder approval [7][8] - The company is restricted from acquiring its own shares except under specific circumstances, such as capital reduction or employee stock ownership plans [8] Shareholder Rights and Responsibilities - Shareholders have rights to dividends, participate in shareholder meetings, supervise company operations, and access company documents [10][11] - Shareholders are obligated to comply with laws and regulations, pay for their subscribed shares, and not misuse their rights to harm the company or other shareholders [15][16] Governance Structure - The company is governed by a board of directors, which is responsible for major decisions, including the appointment of senior management and approval of financial reports [18][19] - The shareholders' meeting is the highest authority of the company, with powers to elect directors, approve financial distributions, and make significant corporate decisions [18][19] Meeting Procedures - The company holds annual and temporary shareholders' meetings, with specific procedures for notification, proposal submission, and voting [19][20] - Shareholders can attend meetings in person or through proxies, and the company must ensure the legality and transparency of the meeting processes [26][27] Voting and Resolutions - Resolutions can be classified as ordinary or special, with different requirements for approval based on the nature of the decision [80][81] - The company ensures that voting rights are exercised fairly, with provisions for cumulative voting in certain situations [86][87]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it presents a "neutral" view on the cotton market, considering various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [3]. 2. Core View The fundamental pattern of the cotton market has limited improvement. The cotton price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the near term. The market is influenced by factors like tariff policies, supply and demand changes, and macro - economic trends. The US cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents due to a loose supply pattern, while the domestic cotton price may move in tandem with the external market. The actual increase in trade demand may be limited despite some warming expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro & Industry - The profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises in April increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. However, the cumulative profit of the textile and clothing industry in April decreased by 15.4% year - on - year [3]. - The US federal court's ruling on the Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and the repeated changes in tariff measures make the industry cautious [3]. 3.2 Supply - **International**: As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, the budding rate was 3%. The soil moisture in the US improved, which is negative for US cotton. The estimated cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well. The planting area in southern Xinjiang may increase, and the new - season output is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The cost of planting is expected to remain stable or decline slightly. The imported cotton resources have decreased for four consecutive times [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic**: The industrial and commercial inventory in China is in the seasonal de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down recently. The replenishment progress of cotton yarn, grey cloth, and blended products has also slowed down [3]. - **International**: In March 2025, the inventory of US wholesalers' clothing and fabrics reached the lowest level in 37 months, and the retailers' inventory has declined. There was no obvious replenishment in Q1, and the latest data will show the US replenishment intention after the tariff war [3]. 3.4 Demand - **Domestic**: The domestic textile industry is in the off - season. The number of orders from spinning mills rebounded limitedly and then declined again. The profit of spinning mills remains at around - 1000 yuan, and the industry's profit in April continued to decline [3]. - **International**: The demand for US cotton has not significantly improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited. The "rush - to - export" effect may not be further amplified [3]. 3.5 Cotton Supply - Related - **Inventory Changes**: The total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China decreased by 162,900 tons to 4.3275 million tons this week. The port inventory decreased by 4700 tons to 485,600 tons. The cotton import in April was about 168,662 tons, reaching a near - historical low [13]. - **Product Inventory**: The inventory days of pure cotton yarn, terminal grey cloth, and factory - made polyester - cotton yarn increased this week. The inventory of textile mills' grey cloth decreased in April. The inventory of the clothing and textile industry of Chinese industrial enterprises in March increased by 2 billion yuan to 180.94 billion yuan [17]. 3.6 Cotton Market Performance - **Cotton Futures and Spot**: The cotton price is in a weak - running state with insufficient positive drivers. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price mostly fluctuates within a range [5][7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot**: The cotton yarn price was weak this week, showing slightly better resistance than cotton [8]. 3.7 Market Indicators - **US Cotton Planting**: As of May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, and the budding rate was 3% [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 29, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou were 11,157, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 11,537, equivalent to 461,480 tons of cotton [19]. - **Operating Rate**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly to 74.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate remained stable at 42.3%. The upward momentum of the operating rate slowed down [21]. - **Profit and Orders**: The immediate profit of spinning mills remained at around - 1000 yuan/ton. The order days of textile enterprises decreased to 11.38 days [23]. 3.8 Market Demand - Side - **Domestic Sales**: In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 108.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, the total export of textiles and clothing in China was 24.1863 billion US dollars. Textile exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year in the first four months, while clothing exports decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in the first four months [29]. 3.9 Industry Overview - The cotton - spinning industry has higher volatility, with lower order peaks and higher inventory production links. The demand - side weakness and supply - side surplus have not been fully alleviated [31]. 3.10 Competitor Situation - The cotton - polyester and cotton - viscose price differences have reached near - four - year lows, and the pressure on cotton consumption has weakened temporarily. However, due to factors such as new capacity expansion in the chemical fiber industry, the pressure on cotton from competitors is expected to remain strong [34]. 3.11 CFTC Position Data The non - commercial positions and the net short positions of funds have made a small correction, but the report does not provide detailed data [35]. 3.12 Macroeconomic Impact The profit differentiation of domestic enterprises continues to intensify, and the consumer confidence indices in Europe and the US have declined, which affects the cotton market [37].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Taihua New Materials, is focusing on the nylon industry and expanding its integrated industrial chain, with significant projected revenue and profit growth for 2024. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects to achieve operating revenue of 7.12 billion yuan and net profit of 730 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 39.8% and 61.6% respectively [1]. Group 2: Industry Position and Product Offering - The company has developed an integrated industrial chain in the nylon sector, covering recycling, regeneration, polymerization, spinning, texturing, weaving, and dyeing, with main products including nylon filament, grey fabric, and functional finished fabrics [1]. - The products are utilized in various fields such as apparel, home textiles, industrial applications, and specialty applications [1]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has established three major production bases in Jiaxing, Suzhou, and Huai'an, and is investing in a new production base in Vietnam with a total investment of no more than 100 million USD, aimed at producing 60 million meters of grey fabric annually [1]. - The Huai'an production base project, which will produce 200 million meters of high-end nylon fabric, is progressing as planned and has recently completed trial production [3]. Group 4: Sustainability and Competitive Advantage - The company is focusing on the recycling of nylon raw materials, utilizing waste silk, edge scraps, and post-consumer fishing nets, ensuring a steady supply of recycled materials [2]. - The chemical recycling technology allows for high-quality regenerated nylon fibers, meeting the increasing global demand for sustainable materials [2]. - As a leader in nylon 66, the company has established advantages in product development, talent, management experience, and customer resources, with nylon 66 being recognized for its superior performance characteristics [2]. Group 5: Future Development Strategy - The company aims to strengthen its integrated nylon industrial chain, enhance its competitive advantages in differentiated products, and increase the sales proportion of these products [3]. - The strategic focus is on high-end, branded, intelligent, and green development, with the goal of becoming a global leader in green multifunctional nylon and high-end functional fabrics [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton declined by over 2% in the week ending May 16, pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and favorable weather in major US cotton - growing areas. The domestic textile industry's operation is stable, but the downstream confidence is weak, with开机率 decreasing due to poor profits and limited new orders. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly driven by market optimism from Sino - US talks, but there is a risk of decline if Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to drop. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 67.61, High at 68.89, Low at 64.75, Close at 65.14, Down 1.58 or 2.37%, Volume 120,492 lots, Volume Change 19,586 lots, Open Interest 113,188 lots, Open Interest Change 7,367 lots - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 12,945, High at 13,480, Low at 12,920, Close at 13,390, Up 440 or 3.40%, Volume 1,295,371 lots, Volume Change 487,287 lots, Open Interest 572,606 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,478 lots - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open at 19,205, High at 19,855, Low at 19,160, Close at 19,620, Up 400 or 2.08%, Volume 32,098 lots, Volume Change 9,847 lots, Open Interest 20,605 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,578 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and good weather in major US cotton - growing areas, ICE cotton declined. For the 2024/25 old - crop, USDA raised US cotton exports by 200,000 bales, but less than expected. The estimated ending stocks of 4.8 million bales pressured the July contract. For the 2025/26 new - crop, with a 11.7% year - on - year decrease in area and a 15.2% abandonment rate, production is expected to reach 14.5 million bales, and ending stocks will increase by 400,000 bales to 5.2 million bales [1][5] - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 27,700 tons, up 86% week - on - week and 2% above the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 74,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week and 5% below the four - week average. The total signed sales of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton reached 2.6296 million tons, accounting for 109% of the annual forecasted exports. The cumulative export shipments were 1.997 million tons, accounting for 76% of the total annual signed volume. New flower pre - sales were poor, and Pakistan continued to cancel contracts due to weak domestic demand [6] - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In February, cotton imports decreased month - on - month, and so did the exports of cotton yarn and textile clothing. As of April 30, the Cotton Corporation of India sold about 200,000 bales of cotton, reducing its inventory to 7 million bales. The arrival volume this season has reached 27.5 million bales. The daily arrival volume is about 27,000 bales, mostly from Maharashtra. In February, raw cotton imports were 49,126 tons, down 17% from January but higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first seven months of this season reached 439,237 tons, mainly from Australia and the African Franc Zone. In February, raw cotton exports were 37,651 tons, down 8% from the previous month and 69% from February 2024. Bangladesh is the main destination. Cotton yarn exports in February were 92,100 tons, slightly lower than in January and 8% lower than in February 2024. The total cotton yarn exports in the first seven months of this year were 625,064 tons, 8% less than in the same period of 2023/24. Textile exports in February were $2.05 billion, down 6% month - on - month but slightly higher than in February 2024 [8] - **Brazil**: Recent trading was light. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 3.905 million tons, mainly due to the increased planting area in Bahia. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton has been sold through primary channels. Farmers are hesitant to sell at current prices. In Mato Grosso, about 16% of the 2026 - season production has been sold. In April, raw cotton exports were 239,145 tons, similar to March and last year. Turkey is the largest buyer, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. The cumulative exports from July to April exceeded 2.55 million tons, more than in the same period of 2023/24 [9] - **Pakistan**: Cotton demand is low. Favorable weather has promoted sowing, but water shortages in some areas of Sindh still hinder field operations. In Punjab, sowing progress is faster than last year, exceeding 60% of the planned target, while in Sindh, the sowing completion rate is 33%. The local cotton market is inactive. Ginning mills are eager to clear inventory, but few spinning mills are willing to buy due to low profits [10] - **Australia**: Cotton exports in March were low. The production report is good, with an expected output of about 5.5 million bales, potentially the highest since 2022/23. However, untimely rainfall during the critical growth period may affect cotton quality, and the market is closely watching the early grading results [10] - **Bangladesh**: Cotton imports in April remained stable. Many spinning mills have good orders and replenishment needs, but difficulties in opening letters of credit still hinder transactions. In April, cotton imports were 148,449 tons, slightly up month - on - month and 12% up year - on - year. African Franc Zone cotton is the main import source, followed by Brazilian and Indian cotton. The total imports in the first nine months of 2024 were 1.25 million tons, up 16% year - on - year [11] - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operation Rates**: As of the week ending May 16, India's textile enterprises'开机率 was 75.5%, Vietnam's was 66%, and Pakistan's was 59% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly in the week ending May 16, but spot transactions became lighter. After Sino - US tariff withdrawals, although some orders returned and backlogged orders were re - shipped, new orders were limited. The profit of downstream industries deteriorated as the price increase of cotton yarn and grey cloth was less than that of cotton, leading to low willingness to replenish raw materials [1][2][12] - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 16, the registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton were 11,548 lots, and the forecasted warehouse receipts were 365 lots, totaling 11,913 lots, equivalent to 500,346 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, 11,015 were Xinjiang cotton and 533 were local cotton [12] - **Downstream Market**: The transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the week. The prices of 40 - 60 count cotton yarns increased by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. The profit of inland spinning mills was slightly negative, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills was good. Spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory first increased and then decreased, currently at a moderately low level, and the开机率 was stable. The overall situation in the all - cotton grey cloth market improved slightly. After the Sino - US joint statement, some traceable orders returned, but the overall order volume recovery was not obvious. The inventory of grey cloth remained high, and the开机率 of weaving mills was about 50%. Weaving mills were not willing to buy cotton yarn and mainly purchased as needed [13][14] 3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises'开机率 (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises'开机率 (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are weak. Without new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or major changes in US trade agreements, the upward momentum of ICE cotton is insufficient. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly due to market optimism. If Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to decline, Zhengzhou cotton futures may fall. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [20]

Supply and Demand - PTA supply is tightening as Jia Tong's 3 million tons capacity resumes and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million tons unit increases load, leading to a PTA load increase to 76.9% (+4.4%) [3] - Demand is also rising with the opening of a long filament unit and a bottle chip unit, pushing polyester comprehensive load to 95.3% (+1.1%) [3] - The operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are improving, with texturing, weaving, and dyeing loads at 80% (+3%), 68% (+3%), and 77% (+4%) respectively [3] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to remain tight in the short term due to concentrated maintenance of PTA units and high polyester operating rates [4] - However, with PTA units set to restart in late May and unclear future maintenance plans, there are concerns about potential weakening in supply-demand dynamics as downstream polyester products face losses [4] - Strategies suggest that TA09 may face short-term pullback pressure, but supply-demand remains strong, indicating high-level fluctuations [4]