成文日期：20260106 报告周期:日报 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棉花期货日报 1 期货市场 棉花期货主力合约 CF2605 收盘价 14,855 元/吨，上涨 1.05%，日内最高价 14,885 元/吨,最低价 14,640 元/吨,成交量 394,098 手，成交额 29.09 亿元，市场交投活跃。 数据来源:wh6. : 棉花 CF605 分时图 2 现货市场 本公司建议交易者应考虑本报告的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定情形,在任何情 况下,本报告中的信息或所表述的意见仅供参考,并不构成对任何人的交易建议。本公 司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担任何责任。 同时提醒期货交易者,期市有风险,入市需谨慎! 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 截至 2025 年 12 月 15 日，全国棉花商业库存 534.90 万吨，工 业库存 98.39 万吨;中国纱线价格指数（C32S）报 21,240 元/吨; 新疆棉现 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 棉花：维持强势 20260107 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 CY2603 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 14,855 20,875 | 1.36% 1.46% | 15030 21020 | 1.18% 0.69% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 65.14 | 0.77% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 503,809 | -131,926 | 1,205,941 | 45,691 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 10,324 | -1,999 | 18,697 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 ...

【基本面跟踪】 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势 20251231 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,560 | 0.87% | 14570 | 0.07% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,605 | 0.56% | 20575 | -0.15% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 64.3 | -0.06% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 537,129 | -127,069 | 1,139,140 | -10,656 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 10,923 | -1,999 | 20,870 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪 20251224 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,140 | 0.50% | 14135 | -0.04% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,185 | 0.37% | 20210 | 0.12% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 64.02 | 0.64% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 308,398 | -144,220 | 1,123,245 | 7,199 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 8,895 | -1,999 | 23,262 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that cotton will maintain a volatile trend. The fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak, and the current market is mainly influenced by market sentiment [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,460 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 13,495 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,725 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 19,805 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 63.93 cents/pound with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 295,438 lots, an increase of 27,671 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 945,741 lots, an increase of 14,640 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 20,225 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 20,948 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 1,259 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,221, an increase of 74. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 17, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 27 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,376 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,363 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 14,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03%. The 3128B index was 14,796 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.03%. The international cotton index M was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan or 0.04% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases and having weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes are stable, and the spot sales basis is also stable. The current cotton outbound freight by truck has increased steadily. The freight from Northern Xinjiang's Kuitun to Shandong's Heze is about 665 yuan/ton, and from Southern Xinjiang's Aksu to Shandong's Heze is about 695 yuan/ton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall trading of pure - cotton yarn is average, with stable quotes and a downward - shifting transaction focus. Some high - count combed yarn prices have increased steadily. Recently, textile enterprises are mainly delivering previous orders, with few new orders. Small and medium - sized textile enterprises produce as needed, with little inventory pressure and good sales. Some large - scale textile enterprises have a decline in the production - sales ratio, a slight increase in inventory, and a certain reduction in the operating rate. High - quality yarns such as pure Australian cotton in traceability orders are selling well, and some manufacturers are rushing for exports [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly affected by market sentiment, and the fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the cotton industry as expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,615 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.59% and a night - session close at 13,630 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. CY2601 closed at 19,820 yuan/ton with a 0.13% daily increase and a night - session close at 19,890 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.07 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease [1] - **Transaction and Position Data**: CF2601 had a trading volume of 381,948 lots, an increase of 133,555 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 943,370 lots, an increase of 23,742 lots. CY2601 had a trading volume of 12,268 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 25,021 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 2,752 warehouse receipts, an increase of 182, and 1,377 valid forecasts, a decrease of 40. Cotton yarn had 6 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 12 valid forecasts, a decrease of 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.41%. The price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.05%. The 3128B index was 14,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local low - basis cotton spot transactions remained good, and the supply of low - basis spot goods gradually increased. Different grades of northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton had different basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with significant regional differentiation. Xinjiang textile enterprises reported smooth sales and good orders for medium - and high - count yarns, while the mainland market had a weak trading atmosphere, and some enterprises slightly reduced prices to clear inventory [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices. However, due to the improvement in international economic and trade relations, the market expected an improvement in global and US cotton demand, and ICE cotton was more resilient than in October [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Xinjiang region's new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The outer - market US cotton is running weakly, and short - term cotton may continue to be under pressure, but the downside space may be limited. Be cautious about chasing short positions in case of sharp drops [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Price Changes - On October 15, compared with October 14, domestic cotton futures CF01 rose 5 points to 13270 with a 0.04% increase; CF05 rose 10 points to 13330 with a 0.08% increase; CF01 - 05 decreased 5 points to - 60. In domestic cotton spot, the price in Xinjiang decreased 85 points to 14513 with a - 0.58% change; in Henan, it decreased 113 points to 14755 with a - 0.76% change; in Shandong, it decreased 82 points to 14676 with a - 0.56% change. Xinjiang - main continuous basis decreased 90 points to 1243 [3] Yarn Futures and Spot Price Changes - Domestic棉纱 futures CY rose 35 points to 19325 on October 15 compared with October 14, with a 0.18% increase. The domestic棉纱 spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20440 with a 0.00% change [3] Outer - market Cotton Price Changes - CT (USD/ lb) remained at 63 with a 0.00% change; the arrival price decreased 0.1 to 73.30 with a - 0.14% change; the US cotton spot 1% quota pick - up price decreased 18 to 12833 with a - 0.14% change; the sliding - duty pick - up price decreased 6 to 13872 with a - 0.04% change [3] Spread Data Changes - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) increased 30; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) increased 12; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) decreased 64 [3] Market Situation in Different Regions - In Xinjiang, the new - cotton harvest expectation is fulfilled. The purchase price of seed cotton first declined and then increased during the festival, generally showing a stable - with - increase trend. Cotton farmers mainly sell at a reasonable price. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is between 6 - 6.15 yuan/kg, and in southern Xinjiang, it is between 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The one - price sales quotation of ginning factories is between 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream textile industry's "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season did not meet expectations, and yarn mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3] Outer - market Situation - The outer - market US cotton is running weakly. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of US cotton - related data is suspended, the recession concern deepens, and there is no news about the Sino - US tariff negotiation, which drags down the US cotton price [3]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF01 + 1500, and the pre - sale basis of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang double 29 cotton was mostly above CF01 + 900 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and spinning mills sold at market prices. Cotton yarn prices were generally stable with a slow downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market maintained shipments, and grey fabric prices were stable. Overseas, U.S. cotton had a slightly lower good - to - excellent rate, an increased drought coverage in cotton - growing areas, and improved weekly export data, but overall it was in a weak and volatile range. Domestically, the purchase price of cottonseed was generally stable, but new cotton acquisition was slow due to local hail and rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Demand - side inventory was still decreasing steadily, but overall demand was weaker than the same period last year. In the short term, with limited new cotton supply, it would be weak under the pressure of a potential bumper harvest after the festival [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the latest survey by the China Cotton Association, the estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD - CNY exchange rate, and USD - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) is in a range - bound adjustment. Seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement has increased, and market trading has improved. Although textile mills are still in losses, the losses have narrowed. Before the new cotton is listed, ZCE cotton may fluctuate around the expected opening price of seed cotton, with limited upside and downside in the short - term [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The low basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint (3129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce. More quotes are above CF09 + 1200, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) is mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low basis is in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450. Some CF01 contract quotes are the same, also for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - **Domestic Downstream Market**: The seasonal peak season is approaching, downstream procurement and stocking have increased, and market trading has improved. Textile mills' losses have narrowed, but the operating rate has not recovered. Inland textile mills maintain a low operating rate, and inventory has decreased. The price of pure - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, downstream inquiries and sales have not improved continuously, and the overall trading atmosphere is still weak. The overall operating rate of weaving factories has increased slightly, and inventory has slowly declined [7] - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (53% the previous week, 42% the same period last year); the boll - setting rate was 73% (65% the previous week, 83% the same period last year, 80% the five - year average); the full - boll rate was 13% (8% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, 16% the five - year average); the budding rate was 97% (93% the previous week, 98% the same period last year, 98% the five - year average). The short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound situation [8] - **Domestic Market Outlook**: As the new cotton listing period approaches, the expected output of new cotton is stable with a slight increase. The downstream industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, the operating rate of textile mills has remained stable, and the grey fabric end is still dominated by small orders. The overall demand has improved slightly compared with the previous period. The recent market rumor that the pre - purchased price of seed cotton in northern Xinjiang is about 6.3 yuan/kg has put pressure on the market [8] 2. Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from September 1, 2026, for the warehouse receipts registered in the following cotton delivery warehouses, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the adjusted standards. For the warehouse receipts registered before September 1, 2026, the warehouse premium and discount will be calculated according to the original standards [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][19][26]