行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡收涨。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15240 元/吨 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15240 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 3 元/吨。2024/ ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) are mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 and above, and for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton, the basis is mostly at CF09 + 900 and above, with some low - basis at 800 - 900, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market is slightly better but still dull, and the yarn price is difficult to rise and remains stable. The profit of spinning enterprises has deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market is sluggish, and the price remains stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al - Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories have gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate is low [7]. - In the international market, the U.S. cotton planting progress is 85% (89% last year), and the good - to - excellent rate is 48% (54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply - demand report increased the U.S. cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending stocks to 960,000 tons. The U.S. cotton fundamentals are good, and the ICE cotton futures are strongly supported. In the domestic market, with the stable - to - increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or increase. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. The downstream industry is currently in a weak state, with finished product inventories gradually accumulating, and the decline in the operating rate is not obvious. In the short term, the fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range fluctuating adjustment. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 15, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 85% (89% last year, 90% five - year average, 76% the previous week), the budding rate was 19% (21% last year, 17% five - year average, 12% the previous week), the boll - opening rate was 3% (0% the previous week, 5% last year, 3% five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% (54% last year). - As of June 14, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 2.8% (1.4% last week, 3.1% last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][19][25][28]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The spot cotton price index has increased, but the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are weak, and spinning mill profits have deteriorated. The开机 rate of local weaving factories in Xinjiang has increased after the festival, but the overall rate remains low. [7] - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, international agricultural products have risen. The signing and shipment of US cotton are in good progress, and the USDA report has adjusted relevant data favorably. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase steadily, and there is a risk of high - temperature damage to cotton. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and macro changes should be monitored. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for cotton sales in different regions vary. The cotton yarn market has slightly better but still weak transactions, with prices difficult to rise. The cotton fabric market is dull, and prices are stable and weak. [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: Overseas, the increase in crude oil has driven up agricultural products. The signing and shipment of US cotton is good, and the USDA report has positive adjustments. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase, but there is a risk of high - temperature damage. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. [8] 2. Industry News - As of the week of June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good - quality rate was 49%. As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange - rate data. [18][19][21][26]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had various cotton basis quotes. The cotton yarn market had slightly better but still weak trading, with prices stable and difficult to increase. Spinning mill profits deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market was sluggish, with prices remaining stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Overseas, the shipment progress of old - crop cotton was good, and the good - to - excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the foreign market. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new - crop cotton output was expected to be stable or slightly increase. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand, stable or increasing finished - product inventories, and a stable or decreasing operating rate of inland spinning mills. Downstream profits gradually deteriorated. In the short term, the fundamental drivers were limited, and the Zhengzhou cotton price was in a difficult situation. Attention should be paid to the performance at the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending June 8, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 76% (79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%), the budding rate was 12% (13% in the same period last year), and the good - to - excellent rate was 49% (56% in the same period last year) [9] - According to CONAB, as of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4% (0.9% last week and 1.7% in the same period last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided various data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][26]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Supported by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market was slightly better but still dull, and the cotton fabric market was light. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, the local weaving mills resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Macro situation: China and the US have reached a framework agreement in principle, with limited positive impact. Overseas, the shipment progress of old cotton was good, and the good and excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the external market. Domestically, the market expected the new cotton output to increase steadily. The downstream yarn and fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand and increasing inventory [8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust narrowly. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good and excellent rate was 49%, all weaker than the same period last year [9] - As of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4%, slower than the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][19]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to the influence of external factors. The overall market sentiment is relatively weak, with spot trading remaining sluggish and downstream demand showing signs of decline [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,795 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.89%, and its night - session price was 12,865 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. CY2507 closed at 18,750 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.87% decline, and its night - session price was 18,830 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase. ICE Cotton 07 rose 0.57% to 67.26 cents/pound [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 283,595 lots, an increase of 25,934 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 792,926 lots, an increase of 29,642 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 5,298 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,689 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,080, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 2,533, an increase of 21. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 10 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,680 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan. The price in Shandong remained unchanged at 14,298 yuan/ton, while the price in Hebei increased by 3 yuan to 14,236 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF59 spread was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading atmosphere of domestic cotton spot remained weak, and the spot basis was relatively firm. Spinning mills were cautious in purchasing. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was mainly in the range of CF09 + 1200 - 1350, and that of the same - quality Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF09 + 1450 [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and the sales of spinning mills were not good. Downstream orders decreased, and the inventory of spinning mills gradually increased, but the current inventory level was still acceptable. The cotton grey fabric market was mainly driven by rigid demand, and most weavers reported flat sales. Due to the lack of new orders, weavers maintained a "buy - as - you - go" purchasing strategy [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton rose slightly yesterday, benefiting from the recovery of overall market risk appetite [2]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].