1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Supply side: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is below the historical average. The re - paving asphalt开工率 was 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 was 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 955.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 801.07 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories continue to be depleted. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support weakens. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3539 - 3609 [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, recovery is weak [15]. - Main influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: This week's refinery production reduction eases supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The planned production in June 2025 shows an increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is below the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [8]. - Cost: Asphalt processing losses increase, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil weakens, and short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation of the futures price in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract in the 3539 - 3609 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factor is the high - level crude oil cost; bearish factors are weak demand and economic recession expectations [13][14]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - price trend**: Analyzed the base - price trends of Shandong and East China asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [20]. - **Spread analysis** - **Main contract spread**: Analyzed the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts [23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Analyzed the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [25]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Analyzed the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) [28]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: Analyzed the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional market price trends**: Analyzed the price trend of Shandong re - paving asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: Analyzed the asphalt profit trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Analyzed the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [40]. - **Supply side** - **Shipment volume**: Analyzed the weekly shipment volume trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Analyzed the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [46]. - **Production volume**: Analyzed the weekly and monthly production volume trends, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [49]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Analyzed the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: Analyzed the asphalt production of local refineries, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [56]. - **开工率**: Analyzed the weekly开工率 trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [59]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: Analyzed the estimated trend of maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [61]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Analyzed the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [64]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: Analyzed the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [68]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: Analyzed the factory inventory inventory ratio trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [71]. - **Import - export situation** - **Asphalt export and import trends**: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [74]. - **South Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: Analyzed the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [79]. - **Demand side** - **Petroleum coke production**: Analyzed the petroleum coke production trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [80]. - **Apparent consumption**: Analyzed the apparent consumption trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [83]. - **Downstream demand** - **Infrastructure - related demand**: Analyzed the trends in highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Analyzed the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales trends of excavators, and the sales trends of road rollers [90]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Re - paving asphalt开工率**: Analyzed the re - paving asphalt开工率 trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [95]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Analyzed the开工率 trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc., but no specific analysis results are given in the text [98]. - **Downstream开工情况**: Analyzed the开工情况 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc., but no specific analysis results are given in the text [99]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate increased by 0.599 percentage points week - on - week, and the sample enterprise output increased by 1.86% week - on - week. Refinery production increases have raised supply pressure, but it is expected to decrease next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher. The waterproofing membrane开工率 decreased by 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and is also lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 602.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 711.6571 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.92%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support weakens in the short term. The asphalt 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3614 - 3674 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, and cost support may weaken [8][9]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the Shandong spot price was 3800 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis was 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.353 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%; factory inventory was 792,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.25%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions. Bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price Trends**: The prices of most asphalt contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.61% [18]. - **Basis and Spread Analysis**: The report provides the basis trends of Shandong and East China, as well as the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trends [20][23][26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional Market Prices**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China and Shandong [37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Output**: Weekly and monthly output trends are presented, and the planned production in June 2025 increased [8][52]. - **Inventory**: It covers various types of inventory, including exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [67][71][48]. - **Other Supply Indicators**: Such as shipping volume, refinery maintenance loss, and开工率 [46][64][61]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Downstream Demand**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, and downstream demand in areas such as highway construction and machinery [83][86][89]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The开工率 of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic, building, and modified asphalt, is analyzed [98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025 is provided, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [109].