跟随成本，短期观望 沥青月报 2026/02/06 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 相关指标 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 3,200.0 3,400.0 3,600.0 3,800.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月3日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，山东地区部分炼厂停产或转产渣油，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少5.80%至21.45万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比持平， 仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的 生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的 贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的 折扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国 内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周山东胜星石化计划转产渣油，沥青开工维持低位。北方刚性需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current independent refinery operations are at a low level, with limited room for further decline. Although there is no significant short - term import - driven factor, the return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil). Meanwhile, the weak and volatile cost of crude oil will also restrict the upward movement of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - In the short term, the high - probability and high - winning - rate period for shorting the asphalt/crude oil valuation has passed, and the valuation is currently in the process of repair. Given the weak fundamentals of asphalt itself, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents a chart of the recent monthly trend of the asphalt main contract, showing changes in supply - demand and cost factors over time [13][14]. - **Medium - Term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and the resumption of major refinery operations will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are likely to remain relatively sluggish in the short to medium term. Regarding demand, the downstream operating rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - Term Factor Assessment**: Supply shows that the operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to rise, and imports remain strong; demand has entered the off - season, with the demand for rubber shoe materials falling far short of expectations; inventory is slowly decreasing but still below expectations. In terms of cost, the view that oil prices will remain weak at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but if shale oil production is restricted and there is strong demand in the peak season of the following year and strategic reserves from various countries, a long - term bullish outlook can be considered from the perspective of the shale oil break - even point [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: It provides price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][26]. - **Basis Trend**: Displays the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [32]. - **Term Structure**: Presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [35][36]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: Shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt operating rate and profit, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [43][46][49]. - **Imports**: Includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions, and cumulative import volumes from different countries [54][56][62]. - **Valuation Ratio**: Compares the ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [65]. - **Refinery Profit**: Displays the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [68]. - **Petroleum Coke**: Presents the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [71]. 3.4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: Includes domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [76]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [79]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: Presents the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [82]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: Displays the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [86]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Includes the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [97][100]. - **Highway Investment**: Presents highway construction investment, transportation fiscal expenditure data, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [102][105][112]. - **Road - Related Machinery**: Displays the sales volumes of road - related machinery such as road rollers and excavators, as well as the operating hours of excavators [113][116]. - **Related Consumption**: Includes fixed - asset investment completion data and local government special bond issuance data [120]. 3.6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: Displays the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [130][128]. 3.7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: Involves exploration and production links [134]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% of production and mostly used for road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [138].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 24.8%, a 4.2% decrease from the previous week due to some enterprises halting production or switching to other products [4]. - The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 370,000 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The shipment volume increased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions [4]. - Crude oil continued to weaken during the week, and the shipment of asphalt in the north showed signs of acceleration. With mediocre fundamental drivers, asphalt may maintain a weak trend in the short term following crude oil [4]. - The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 571 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan increase from the previous week. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,185 yuan/ton, a 38 - yuan decrease from the previous period [4]. - The recommended strategies are: 1) For the single - side operation, no specific strategy is given; 2) For the inter - period operation, take profit on the reverse spread; 3) For the inter - variety operation, go long on BU and short SC [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: The decline in capacity utilization was due to enterprises like Liaoning Zhende, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Yunnan Petrochemical halting asphalt production, and some refineries in East China and Shandong Shengxing switching to producing residual oil [4]. - Demand: In the Northeast, the increase in low - sulfur asphalt production and price cuts by refineries supported the increase in shipment volume. In Shandong, terminal demand and the concentrated delivery of contracts by individual refineries drove the increase in shipment volume [4]. - Viewpoint: The short - term trend of asphalt may be weak following the decline of crude oil [4]. - Valuation: The average price of asphalt decreased, with 6 regions seeing price drops (0.8% - 4.4%) and only 1 region (Shandong) having a 0.2% price increase [4]. - Strategy: As mentioned above, including single - side, inter - period, and inter - variety strategies [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and different types of crude oils. Some raw materials have advantages like not requiring crude oil quotas and being exempt from consumption tax. Different crude oils also have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: There are data on the trading volume, open interest, and price trends of asphalt futures, as well as the price trends of related crude oil futures such as Brent, WTI, and SC [9][11]. - Spot: There are data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margins in Shandong [12]. - Spread: There are data on the basis (e.g., Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta) and the inter - month spread of asphalt [14][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the marine fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the influence of some markets is relatively small [21]. - Shipment Volume: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.2% week - on - week, with significant increases in the Northeast and Shandong regions [4][25]. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 10.6%, a 0.6% decrease both week - on - week and year - on - year. The production enthusiasm of enterprises in Central and North China continued to decline, while the increase in demand in the South was slow [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Different regions and refineries have different characteristics in terms of quotas, production, and inventory [27]. - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: There are data on the weekly production volume of asphalt and the weekly port inventory of diluted asphalt. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 5.2% from November 17, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.7% [29][30][31]. - Start - up: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions (e.g., Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, Central China, South China, Southwest, Northeast) [35][36][38]. - Inventory: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions (e.g., North China, Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, South China) [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On November 12, 2025, BU2512 closed at 3,051 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.56% and a night - session closing price of 3,065 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase; BU2601 closed at 3,050 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase and a night - session closing price of 3,062 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase. The trading volume of BU2512 was 10,113 lots, a decrease of 2,857 lots, and the open interest was 20,360 lots, a decrease of 1,092 lots. The trading volume of BU2601 was 252,208 lots, a decrease of 7,506 lots, and the open interest was 193,828 lots, a decrease of 14,840 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 7,690 lots with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 12) was - 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 12 - 01 inter - period spread was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was - 340, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 0 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the factory - warehouse and warehouse spot equivalent prices on the futures market were 3,126 yuan/ton and 3,266 yuan/ton respectively. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse and warehouse spot equivalent prices on the futures market were 3,357 yuan/ton and 3,417 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 10, the refinery operating rate was 33.50%, a decrease of 0.36% compared to November 6; the refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, an increase of 0.60% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [8]. 3.3 Market Information - **Production**: In the week from November 4 to November 10, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 525,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.8% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.2% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to November was 27.156 million tons, an increase of 3.107 million tons or 12.9% year - on - year [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 688,000 tons, an increase of 0.4% compared to November 6. The inventory in Shandong increased significantly due to weakening terminal demand and the preference of industry players to clear social inventories first. The total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.167 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to November 6. The social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly, supported by rush - work demand and the approach of the seasonal off - season [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation where supply is at a relatively high level, demand is restricted, and prices are oscillating downward. Given the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, potential increased volatility in crude oil prices, and the strong basis in Shandong region, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines regarding asphalt futures prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - The asphalt price is oscillating downward [5] 3.2 Supply Side - The asphalt开工率 (operating rate) increased by 1.3 percentage points week - on - week to 35.8%, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. Shandong and East China have individual refineries with intermittent production [4][19]. - The estimated domestic asphalt production in October is 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a decrease of 0.1%), and an increase of 0.35 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 15.0%) [4]. - Refineries such as Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, and asphalt production will decrease but still remain at a high level [4] 3.3 Demand Side - As of the week ending October 17th, after the National Day holiday, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.48% week - on - week to 253,300 tons, at a moderately low level [4][23]. - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1% [28]. - As of the week ending October 17th, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate remained unchanged week - on - week at 29.0%, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [4][28] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week ending October 17th, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points week - on - week to 16.6%, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [33] 3.5 Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 245 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but next week may increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased by 6.05% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3531 - 3571 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: Refineries' recent production cuts reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, with most downstream开工率s lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil strengthening provides short - term cost support, while asphalt processing losses increase [9]. - **Expectation**: Futures price to fluctuate narrowly, with asphalt 2511 in the 3531 - 3571 range [10]. - **Likely positive factors**: Relatively high crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - **Likely negative factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened recession expectations in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 2nd, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month to 1270000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 674000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month to 190000 tons [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: Renders the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: Displays the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Illustrates the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trends**: Depicts the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41][43]. - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly shipment volume [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume [49][50]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production volume**: Presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: Shows the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume [61][62]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts [64][65][66]. - **Social and factory inventory**: Presents the historical trends of social and factory inventory [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio [71][72]. - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import [74][75]. - **Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price difference [77][78][79]. - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production volume**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption volume**: Shows the historical trends of apparent consumption volume [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Displays the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt开工率 [98]. - **Downstream开工率**: Presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane开工率 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. Although rainfall impact was expected to decrease next week, overall demand was difficult to exceed expectations due to capital constraints. Despite low refinery inventories, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to move in a volatile manner, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated this week, showing a slight upward trend in the second half of the week, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: Both supply and demand of refineries decreased this week, with a more significant decline in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories, which had been difficult to destock, showed signs of loosening, indicating a marginal positive trend [7]. - This week's view: With an increase in short - term maintenance and a decrease in rainfall, asphalt conditions are expected to improve marginally. However, demand will still be restricted by capital. Asphalt is unlikely to have an independent market and will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's view: Asphalt market was mainly driven by rigid demand. Next - week's rainfall impact was expected to decrease, but capital constraints limited demand growth. Low refinery inventories and non - destocking social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated and rose slightly in the second half, following crude oil [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply and demand both decreased, with a larger drop in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories showed signs of destocking [7]. - This week's view: Short - term maintenance increase and less rainfall will improve asphalt conditions marginally. However, capital constraints will still limit demand. Asphalt will follow the cost side [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis The report presents charts of asphalt futures prices, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators over different time periods, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports Charts present asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and price differences between imported and domestic prices, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts display operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in Shandong, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts show operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in East China, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts present operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Plant Maintenance A table lists asphalt production enterprises, their maintenance devices, capacities, maintenance start times, and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2116 tons/year and a maintenance loss of 648,400 tons [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current shipment boost is limited, and the short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the start of peak - season demand and the trend of oil prices [4]. - The strategy includes a weak and volatile unilateral market, taking profit on reverse spreads in the inter - period market, and no suggestion for the inter - variety market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a 1.4% decline from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residue oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [4]. - **Demand**: The sharp drop in crude oil prices increased the wait - and - see sentiment, and the enthusiasm for asphalt procurement declined. In Shandong, terminal demand was weak, and prices were under pressure to stimulate sales. In East China, some areas were affected by rain, and actual demand was lower than expected. Social inventory increased due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated downward following crude oil. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,754 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuated between 3,741 - 3,768 yuan/ton, with a wider range. Three regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and two regions had stable prices. The largest decline was in North China, and the largest increase was in Southwest China [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also considerations regarding raw material supply, import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report presents data on futures - disk prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil in different regions [11][12]. - **Spread**: It shows the basis and monthly spread data, including the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, and the monthly spread between different contract months [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, although the impact of some markets is relatively small [23]. - **Shipment and Capacity Utilization**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipment decreased significantly due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipment increased due to high - load production and good shipping after the weather improved. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 15.9%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week but a 2.8% increase year - on - year. In East China, the capacity utilization rate decreased due to weather and capital constraints [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Refineries are divided by region and attribute, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: The weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 561,000 tons, a 1.1% decrease from the previous week but a 25.8% increase year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt refineries was 717,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease from August 4. The total inventory of 104 domestic social asphalt warehouses was 1,872,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease from August 4. East China's refinery inventory decreased significantly, while its social inventory increased significantly due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [32]. - **Start - up and Inventory**: The report provides data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions and the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [35][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view was that anti - involution had little impact on the cost - end crude oil, asphalt was mainly for rigid demand, and it was difficult to have an unexpected performance due to capital constraints. The refinery's weekly operation rate decreased, but it was expected to rebound slightly next week. Although the refinery inventory was at a low level, the continuous non - reduction of social inventory might limit the overall upside space. The asphalt price was expected to fluctuate and follow the cost - end [7]. - This week, the asphalt price rose slightly, generally following the trend of cost - end crude oil but relatively weakly. This week, the supply and demand of refineries both increased, but the increase in demand was less than that in the operation rate. After the reduction of refinery inventory, it was at a low level in the same period, but the reduction speed of social inventory was slow. After entering the peak season, the reduction speed of social inventory would restrict the upward space of asphalt prices. The main view this week was that asphalt was still mainly for rigid demand, and it was difficult to have an unexpected performance due to capital constraints. Although the refinery inventory was at a low level, the continuous non - reduction of social inventory might limit the overall upside space. The asphalt price was expected to fluctuate and weakly follow the cost - end [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's main view: Anti - involution had little impact on the cost - end crude oil. Asphalt was mainly for rigid demand and was restricted by capital. The refinery's weekly operation rate decreased, and it was expected to rebound slightly next week. Low refinery inventory and non - reducing social inventory might limit the upside [7]. - This week's situation: The asphalt price rose slightly, following the crude oil trend weakly. Supply and demand of refineries both increased, with demand growth lower than the operation rate increase. Refinery inventory was at a low level after reduction, and slow social inventory reduction would restrict price increases [7]. - This week's main view: Asphalt was for rigid demand, restricted by capital. Low refinery inventory and non - reducing social inventory might limit the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate and weakly follow the cost - end [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The data includes asphalt's main price, the spread between September and December contracts, and the basis in East China and Shandong regions. The data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data shows asphalt device operation rate, weekly output, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate. The data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - The data covers asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by asphalt apparent consumption. The data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Import and Export - The data includes asphalt import and export volumes, and the import windows in East China and South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - The data shows refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. The data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in Shandong. The data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in East China. The data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Production Enterprise Maintenance Information - Multiple enterprises had their atmospheric and vacuum distillation units under maintenance. The total annual production capacity of these enterprises was 1936 tons, and the maintenance loss was 604,000 tons [33].