1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but next week may increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased by 6.05% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3531 - 3571 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: Refineries' recent production cuts reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, with most downstream开工率s lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil strengthening provides short - term cost support, while asphalt processing losses increase [9]. - **Expectation**: Futures price to fluctuate narrowly, with asphalt 2511 in the 3531 - 3571 range [10]. - **Likely positive factors**: Relatively high crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - **Likely negative factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened recession expectations in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 2nd, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month to 1270000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 674000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month to 190000 tons [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: Renders the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: Displays the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Illustrates the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trends**: Depicts the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41][43]. - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly shipment volume [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume [49][50]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production volume**: Presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: Shows the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume [61][62]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts [64][65][66]. - **Social and factory inventory**: Presents the historical trends of social and factory inventory [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio [71][72]. - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import [74][75]. - **Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price difference [77][78][79]. - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production volume**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption volume**: Shows the historical trends of apparent consumption volume [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Displays the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt开工率 [98]. - **Downstream开工率**: Presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane开工率 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. Although rainfall impact was expected to decrease next week, overall demand was difficult to exceed expectations due to capital constraints. Despite low refinery inventories, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to move in a volatile manner, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated this week, showing a slight upward trend in the second half of the week, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: Both supply and demand of refineries decreased this week, with a more significant decline in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories, which had been difficult to destock, showed signs of loosening, indicating a marginal positive trend [7]. - This week's view: With an increase in short - term maintenance and a decrease in rainfall, asphalt conditions are expected to improve marginally. However, demand will still be restricted by capital. Asphalt is unlikely to have an independent market and will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's view: Asphalt market was mainly driven by rigid demand. Next - week's rainfall impact was expected to decrease, but capital constraints limited demand growth. Low refinery inventories and non - destocking social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated and rose slightly in the second half, following crude oil [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply and demand both decreased, with a larger drop in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories showed signs of destocking [7]. - This week's view: Short - term maintenance increase and less rainfall will improve asphalt conditions marginally. However, capital constraints will still limit demand. Asphalt will follow the cost side [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis The report presents charts of asphalt futures prices, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators over different time periods, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports Charts present asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and price differences between imported and domestic prices, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts display operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in Shandong, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts show operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in East China, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts present operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Plant Maintenance A table lists asphalt production enterprises, their maintenance devices, capacities, maintenance start times, and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2116 tons/year and a maintenance loss of 648,400 tons [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current shipment boost is limited, and the short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the start of peak - season demand and the trend of oil prices [4]. - The strategy includes a weak and volatile unilateral market, taking profit on reverse spreads in the inter - period market, and no suggestion for the inter - variety market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a 1.4% decline from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residue oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [4]. - **Demand**: The sharp drop in crude oil prices increased the wait - and - see sentiment, and the enthusiasm for asphalt procurement declined. In Shandong, terminal demand was weak, and prices were under pressure to stimulate sales. In East China, some areas were affected by rain, and actual demand was lower than expected. Social inventory increased due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated downward following crude oil. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,754 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuated between 3,741 - 3,768 yuan/ton, with a wider range. Three regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and two regions had stable prices. The largest decline was in North China, and the largest increase was in Southwest China [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also considerations regarding raw material supply, import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report presents data on futures - disk prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil in different regions [11][12]. - **Spread**: It shows the basis and monthly spread data, including the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, and the monthly spread between different contract months [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, although the impact of some markets is relatively small [23]. - **Shipment and Capacity Utilization**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipment decreased significantly due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipment increased due to high - load production and good shipping after the weather improved. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 15.9%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week but a 2.8% increase year - on - year. In East China, the capacity utilization rate decreased due to weather and capital constraints [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Refineries are divided by region and attribute, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: The weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 561,000 tons, a 1.1% decrease from the previous week but a 25.8% increase year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt refineries was 717,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease from August 4. The total inventory of 104 domestic social asphalt warehouses was 1,872,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease from August 4. East China's refinery inventory decreased significantly, while its social inventory increased significantly due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [32]. - **Start - up and Inventory**: The report provides data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions and the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [35][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view was that anti - involution had little impact on the cost - end crude oil, asphalt was mainly for rigid demand, and it was difficult to have an unexpected performance due to capital constraints. The refinery's weekly operation rate decreased, but it was expected to rebound slightly next week. Although the refinery inventory was at a low level, the continuous non - reduction of social inventory might limit the overall upside space. The asphalt price was expected to fluctuate and follow the cost - end [7]. - This week, the asphalt price rose slightly, generally following the trend of cost - end crude oil but relatively weakly. This week, the supply and demand of refineries both increased, but the increase in demand was less than that in the operation rate. After the reduction of refinery inventory, it was at a low level in the same period, but the reduction speed of social inventory was slow. After entering the peak season, the reduction speed of social inventory would restrict the upward space of asphalt prices. The main view this week was that asphalt was still mainly for rigid demand, and it was difficult to have an unexpected performance due to capital constraints. Although the refinery inventory was at a low level, the continuous non - reduction of social inventory might limit the overall upside space. The asphalt price was expected to fluctuate and weakly follow the cost - end [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's main view: Anti - involution had little impact on the cost - end crude oil. Asphalt was mainly for rigid demand and was restricted by capital. The refinery's weekly operation rate decreased, and it was expected to rebound slightly next week. Low refinery inventory and non - reducing social inventory might limit the upside [7]. - This week's situation: The asphalt price rose slightly, following the crude oil trend weakly. Supply and demand of refineries both increased, with demand growth lower than the operation rate increase. Refinery inventory was at a low level after reduction, and slow social inventory reduction would restrict price increases [7]. - This week's main view: Asphalt was for rigid demand, restricted by capital. Low refinery inventory and non - reducing social inventory might limit the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate and weakly follow the cost - end [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The data includes asphalt's main price, the spread between September and December contracts, and the basis in East China and Shandong regions. The data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data shows asphalt device operation rate, weekly output, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate. The data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - The data covers asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by asphalt apparent consumption. The data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Import and Export - The data includes asphalt import and export volumes, and the import windows in East China and South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - The data shows refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. The data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in Shandong. The data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in East China. The data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Production Enterprise Maintenance Information - Multiple enterprises had their atmospheric and vacuum distillation units under maintenance. The total annual production capacity of these enterprises was 1936 tons, and the maintenance loss was 604,000 tons [33].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.1788%，环比减少0.72个百分点，全国 样本企业出货28.83万吨，环比增加5.99%,样本企业产量为53.7万吨，环比减少2.18%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为74.1万吨，环比增加4.66%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.4%，环比减少0.03个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate increased by 0.599 percentage points week - on - week, and the sample enterprise output increased by 1.86% week - on - week. Refinery production increases have raised supply pressure, but it is expected to decrease next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher. The waterproofing membrane开工率 decreased by 2.50 percentage points week - on - week and is also lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 602.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 711.6571 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.92%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support weakens in the short term. The asphalt 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3614 - 3674 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, and cost support may weaken [8][9]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the Shandong spot price was 3800 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis was 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.353 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%; factory inventory was 792,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.25%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions. Bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price Trends**: The prices of most asphalt contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.61% [18]. - **Basis and Spread Analysis**: The report provides the basis trends of Shandong and East China, as well as the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trends [20][23][26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional Market Prices**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China and Shandong [37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Output**: Weekly and monthly output trends are presented, and the planned production in June 2025 increased [8][52]. - **Inventory**: It covers various types of inventory, including exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [67][71][48]. - **Other Supply Indicators**: Such as shipping volume, refinery maintenance loss, and开工率 [46][64][61]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Downstream Demand**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, and downstream demand in areas such as highway construction and machinery [83][86][89]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The开工率 of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic, building, and modified asphalt, is analyzed [98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025 is provided, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [109].