Workflow
油脂油料市场行情
icon
Search documents
油脂:原油增产计划超出预期,油脂油料偏弱震荡
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 11:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil prices gap down due to OPEC+ exceeding market expectations with its August production increase plan, affecting biofuel raw materials and causing a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. Malaysian palm oil exports increased and production declined in June, with inventory expected to slightly decrease, but the Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation due to the weakening of crude oil and external oils and fats. [6][7] - In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to the off - season demand and weakened import cost support. The arrival speed of imported palm oil is accelerating, and the domestic price follows the external market with mainly rigid demand. Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range as the decline in domestic inventory and the uncertainty of subsequent imports still support the price. [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of July 2, the 2024/25 soybean harvest in Argentina reached 100%. The BAGE maintained the soybean production forecast at 50.3 million tons, a 15% increase from the five - year average due to ideal weather conditions during the planting season. [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Brazilian 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected production, compared with 64% at the beginning of June. The sales progress was lower than 77.5% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.1%. [2] - In June, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 1.011 billion tons, a record high. It is expected that the oil mills will maintain a high operating rate in July, with a crushing volume of about 950 million tons. [2] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than expected. The operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly from July 5 to July 11. [3] Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the increase in OPEC+ production in August exceeds market expectations, causing international crude oil prices to gap down, which affects biofuel raw materials and leads to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation. [6][7] - Domestically, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range. [7]
油脂油料早报-20250626
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 06:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A commodity research institution estimates Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season to be 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. However, the continuous dry conditions in Manitoba need to be closely monitored as they pose a risk to yield potential [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month, resulting in a reduction of the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a previous month was RM3,926.59 per ton with a 9.5% tariff, while the current month's reference price is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 0.25%, while that in Sabah decreased by 13.27%, Sarawak decreased by 4.56%, and East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month reached 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the same period last month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Canada Rapeseed - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate [1]. - Manitoba has a precipitation gap of about 30 mm in the past two weeks, and the precipitation gap in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expected to reach 24 mm in the next 10 days, which poses a risk to yield potential [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil, reducing the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a certain month is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month increased by 6.8% compared to the same period last month [1]. Price Information - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 19 - 25, 2025, are provided, showing a general downward trend [1].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250612
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts the export prospects of US soybeans, providing overall support for US soybean futures prices. Domestically, the recent significant increase in the operation rate of domestic oil mills is expected to accelerate the inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Affected by the recent strength of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] - Oils: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a weak and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil closed higher. The Sino - US easing signal boosts the performance of soybean oil. The domestic soybean - related supply is gradually recovering with the increase in soybean arrivals, and soybean oil is expected to gradually accumulate inventory in the later period. The May Malaysian palm oil supply - demand data has a neutral impact on the market, and oils are expected to maintain a volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7694, 7970, 9149, 3047, 2557, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 64, - 146, - 39, 16, 11, and 26, and price change rates of - 0.82%, - 1.80%, - 3.15%, 0.53%, 0.43%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: There were changes in spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc. For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 was 50, and the previous value was 60 [1] International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3876 (ringgit/ton), 1050 (cents/bushel), 48 (cents/pound), and 294 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of - 44, - 8, 0, - 2, and price change rates of - 1.12%, - 0.76%, 0.57%, - 0.54% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. had different price change rates. For example, the price change rate of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was - 1.00% [1] - Basis: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. were 266, 480 respectively [1] - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, etc. had changes compared with the previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 648, - 121, etc., showing changes compared with the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. were 17,652, 340, 0 respectively, with some changes compared with the previous values [1] Industry Information - As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold 175.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with cumulative sales reaching 1963.45 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 128.1 million tons, and the export industry purchased 47.69 million tons [2] - From June 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.71%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1%, and the output decreased by 17.24% [2] - As of June 8, the US soybean sowing was 90% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 68% [2]