丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨东方电缆（603606.SH） [Table_Title] 东方电缆：Q2 经营基本触底，排产加速有望奠 定下半年交付放量基础 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年中报，公司实现营业收入 44.32 亿元，同比增长 8.95%；归属净利润 4.73 亿 元，同比下降 26.57%。其中，2025Q2 营业收入 22.85 亿元，同比下降 17.13%；归属净利润 1.92 亿元，同比下降 49.56%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 周圣钧 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490524120003 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 事件评论 ⚫ 收入端，公司 2025 年上半年营业收入同比增长，其中：海底电缆与高压电缆营收 19.57 亿元，同比增长 8.32%，海洋装备与工程运维营收 2.75 亿元，同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.43 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million RMB, a decrease of 26.6% year-on-year. The profit pressure is attributed to the adjustment in the revenue structure of submarine cables and the sale of land use rights in the same period last year. However, with key offshore wind projects like Fanshi No. 1 and Qingzhou No. 5 starting turbine hoisting, the company is expected to see a gradual increase in submarine cable deliveries in H2 2025 [1][2][3] - The company has a robust order backlog, reaching approximately 19.6 billion RMB as of August 12, 2025, with significant contributions from submarine cables and high-voltage cables, marine equipment, and engineering operations. The company is expected to enter a peak delivery season in the second half of the year, which will drive profit recovery [3][4] - The domestic and international offshore wind markets are experiencing high demand, with many projects yet to be tendered. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its leading technology and delivery experience [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.29 billion RMB, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year and an increase of 6.4% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million RMB, down 49.6% year-on-year and down 31.6% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 16.3%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year and 4.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables was 760 million RMB, down 46.9% year-on-year and 36.4% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from marine equipment and engineering operations was 210 million RMB, up 48.4% year-on-year and 223.1% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from power engineering and cable equipment was 1.31 billion RMB, up 10.9% year-on-year and 48.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] Order Backlog and Future Outlook - The company’s order backlog reached a new high of approximately 19.6 billion RMB, with 11 billion RMB from submarine cables and high-voltage cables, 3.6 billion RMB from marine equipment and engineering operations, and 5 billion RMB from power engineering and cable equipment. The backlog reflects a decrease of 4% for submarine cables and high-voltage cables but increases of 20% and 14% for marine equipment and power engineering, respectively [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming tendering of offshore wind projects in China and supportive policies in Europe, which will likely drive high growth in submarine cable orders [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the profit forecast for the company, expecting EPS of 2.81, 3.24, and 3.41 RMB for 2025-2027. The target price is set at 56.20 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 20 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong market position and order backlog [5][7]

Summary of Offshore Wind Pile Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The offshore wind pile industry is expected to recover starting from the second half of 2024, with significant growth in shipment volumes anticipated in 2025, particularly in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces [1][5] - The domestic offshore wind power installation capacity is projected to reach 10GW in 2025, with potential to exceed 15GW in 2026 based on current bidding projects, providing strong growth support for related companies [1][7] Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Improvement**: The profitability of the offshore wind pile segment is expected to improve due to the marginal effects of depreciation and amortization as the industry scales up, leading to a sustained increase in profitability in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [1][6] - **Deep Sea Projects**: Deep sea projects are identified as a major source of growth elasticity for companies, with projects in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Liaoning set to commence in 2025, transitioning product specifications towards jacket structures [1][8] - **Increased Production Difficulty**: As water depth increases, the production and construction of single piles become more challenging, leading to a higher penetration rate of jacket structures, which require advanced welding technology and equipment [1][9][10] Market Dynamics - **Domestic Market**: The domestic offshore wind construction pace is accelerating, particularly in Jiangsu and Guangdong, with significant increases in shipment volumes expected in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][5] - **Historical Competition**: The market competition in the offshore wind pile industry has been relatively stable, with minor fluctuations in processing fees and prices. The demand volume has been the primary influencing factor [1][4] International Market Opportunities - **Growing Overseas Demand**: The overseas demand for offshore wind power is rapidly increasing, with a medium to long-term plan requiring 15-20GW annually, compared to only 3GW last year. This presents export opportunities for domestic companies, especially in jacket products [1][11][12] - **Advantages of Domestic Companies**: Domestic companies have significant advantages in production capacity, cost efficiency, and delivery reliability, positioning them well to capture overseas market opportunities [1][12] Strategic Responses - **Head Companies' Strategies**: Leading domestic companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, with notable actions including stable deliveries by Dajin, acquisitions by Tiensun, and new base constructions by Haili to meet future demand [2][13] - **Short-term and Long-term Profit Outlook**: In the short term, the industry is expected to experience a recovery in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to the acceleration of deep sea projects and increasing overseas demand [1][14]

Core Viewpoint - The significant financing decision by Ørsted has triggered a sharp decline in its stock price, dropping over 30% in both Frankfurt and London exchanges due to the unexpected capital raise of 60 billion Danish kroner (approximately 67.3 billion RMB) [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Ørsted is headquartered in Denmark and employs around 8,300 people, primarily focusing on the development, construction, and operation of offshore and onshore wind farms, solar power plants, energy storage facilities, and bioenergy plants [4]. - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 71 billion Danish kroner (approximately 79.6 billion RMB) [4]. Group 2: Financing Details - Ørsted announced a rights issue to raise 60 billion Danish kroner (approximately 7 billion GBP) to strengthen its financial position amid challenges in its UK and US projects [5]. - The rights issue will be fully underwritten by Morgan Stanley, with existing shareholders having the right to subscribe to their proportional share of the new capital. The Danish government, as a major shareholder, has committed to subscribing to 50.1% of the new shares [5]. Group 3: Use of Funds and Project Challenges - The funds raised will support Ørsted's offshore wind investment portfolio, including projects in Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region [6]. - Ørsted recently halted the Hornsea 4 offshore wind project due to rising costs and delays, which is one of the largest offshore wind farms under development globally, with a capacity of 2.4 GW. The termination of this project is expected to incur costs between 3.5 billion and 4.5 billion Danish kroner (approximately 3.825 billion to 4.918 billion RMB) [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Performance - Ørsted faces regulatory uncertainties and changing political support in the US, particularly after former President Trump halted the company's equity sale plan for the Sunrise Wind project in New York [7]. - The company reported an EBITDA of 15.5 billion Danish kroner (approximately 17.4 billion RMB) for the first half of the year, up from 14.1 billion Danish kroner in the same period last year. However, it downgraded the outlook for its offshore wind division from "high" to "neutral" due to slower market growth and uncertainties [7][8].

大金重工（002487.SZ）8月11日在投资者互动平台表示，大金重工唐山曹妃甸海工基地配备了业内唯一 符合欧洲海洋工程标准的风电深远海基础专用产线，定位于打造具备适应深远海作业需求的超大型风电 海工结构批量生产能力的世界级超级工厂，重点布局深远海超大型单桩、导管架和浮式基础海工产品制 造产线。同时，为配合全球化战略布局，公司着力搭建配套的全球化物流体系，拥有专业度高、经验丰 富的远洋航运业务团队；由公司独创设计和自行建造的2艘海上风电装备特种重型运输船，将在年内完 成下水。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问贵公司在欧洲深远海海工基地是否已规划设计完 成？预计什么时候开工建设？自建的两艘船舶预计本年度何时下水？首次起航时间？ ...

8日，上海 金山海上风电场一期项目最后一张风机叶片正在吊装。上海金山海事局供图 金山海上风电场一期项目是全国首个低于煤炭标杆电价的竞争性配置海上风电项目，共安装36台单机容 量为8.5兆瓦的风机，是当前上海市单机容量最大的海上风电场。最后一台风机吊装从8月6日13时开 始，由风电安装平台"海电运维801"轮负责起吊，历时49小时28分，先后完成了塔筒、机舱、轮毂、风 叶等起吊和安装工作。 中新网上海8月8日电 (谢梦圆)8日下午，随着最后一张叶片吊装完成，金山海上风电场一期项目36台风 机全部安装到位，这一关键性节点的完成标志着金山海上风电场一期项目取得突破性进展，为年内全容 量并网发电奠定了坚实基础。 据了解，金山海上风电场一期项目海上升压站已于今年4月26日安装到位，项目拟铺设的36个回路35kV 海底电缆和23.7千米220kV海底电缆敷设正在施工中。截至8月8日，风机至升压站间的35kV海底电缆已 敷设完成28个回路，升压站至岸基的220kV海底电缆已敷设完成4.42千米。(完) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth potential in the European offshore wind power sector, driven by ambitious government targets and the anticipated demand for manufacturing capacity, despite current local production limitations [4][5][6]. Group 1 - By early 2025, the UK government aims to enter a "super-intensive construction period" for offshore wind power, targeting an installed capacity of 43-50 GW by 2030 and potentially exceeding 100 GW by 2050 [4]. - Germany's Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency has set a goal for offshore wind capacity to reach 40 GW by 2035 and 70 GW by 2045 [4]. - With only 37 GW of cumulative installed capacity expected by the end of 2024, Europe is viewed as the next booming market for the offshore wind industry due to the substantial incremental growth potential [5]. Group 2 - There is a notable shortfall in local manufacturing capacity to meet these ambitious plans, particularly in monopile production, with a projected shortfall of over 50,000 tons by 2027 and potentially exceeding 100,000 tons by 2029 [6]. - Historically, when local production falls short, Chinese companies have stepped in to provide support, raising questions about which companies will participate this time [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The wind power industry is expected to see a bidding volume of 80-90 GW in 2025, which is lower than the peak in 2024 but still the third highest in history [1][3] - The offshore wind power market is experiencing a significant growth trend, driven by energy independence goals in Europe [2][35] Core Insights and Arguments - The bidding volume for wind power in 2025 is projected to be 80-90 GW, down from 164 GW in 2024, which was a historical high [3][8] - The average bidding price for wind power equipment from January to July 2025 is 1,518 RMB per kW, a 5.61% increase year-on-year, positively impacting the profit elasticity of manufacturers [1][10] - The construction pace for offshore wind projects has been delayed, with Q3 and Q4 being critical for performance release [4][30] - The expected installed capacity for offshore wind in 2025 is 8-10 GW, showing significant year-on-year growth but still falling short of the 20 GW target [1][30] - The impact of policy changes, such as the cancellation of subsidies, has affected companies like Dongfang Cable, but there are expectations for significant deliveries in the second half of the year [31][32] Additional Important Content - The 136 document has created uncertainty regarding investment returns in the wind power sector, leading to a temporary surge in bidding activity followed by a decline [6][7] - The market for large megawatt models has decreased, with medium power products becoming mainstream [1][17] - The offshore wind project approval process has not seen drastic fluctuations, indicating a stable project reserve for the second half of the year [9][30] - The European offshore wind market is expected to see a boost due to upcoming auctions in the UK, Germany, and Denmark, which are set to take place in late 2025 [33][34] - Companies like Mingyang Smart Energy are highlighted for their potential impact in the European market through factory establishment or order acquisition [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the wind power industry and its future trends.

Core Insights - The establishment of a 16+ megawatt floating wind turbine by Goldwind Technology in Wenzhou marks a significant advancement in offshore wind power technology, with the unit expected to be shipped by the end of August [1] - Wenzhou is positioning itself as a leader in offshore wind power, leveraging its extensive marine resources and favorable environmental conditions to support the development of a robust offshore wind power industry [1][3] - The city has implemented a supply chain strategy to attract leading enterprises in the wind power sector, resulting in substantial investments and growth in energy and manufacturing sectors [2] Group 1 - The first 16+ megawatt floating wind turbine, weighing over 500 tons and made with carbon fiber materials, is set to enhance Wenzhou's capabilities in offshore wind power [1] - Wenzhou's marine area exceeds 8,600 square kilometers, with an average wind speed of over 7.5 meters per second, ensuring high efficiency for offshore wind projects [1] - The city aims to create a trillion-yuan offshore wind power industry cluster by integrating resources and attracting leading companies [1] Group 2 - Wenzhou has attracted major wind power companies such as Goldwind, Yunda, and Envision, which have stimulated local supply chains and investment growth [2] - The establishment of the National Wind Power Technology Innovation Center in Wenzhou will support technological advancements in offshore wind power and foster collaboration between universities and enterprises [2] - Wenzhou has planned over 17 offshore wind power projects with a total capacity exceeding 20 million kilowatts, accounting for over 50% of the province's capacity [3] Group 3 - The city is developing a deep-sea wind power hub with integrated functions for assembly, core component manufacturing, and operational services, aiming to support a 2 million kilowatt demonstration project by the end of the year [3] - By 2030, Wenzhou plans to establish a comprehensive deep-sea wind power hub with an installed capacity exceeding 5 million kilowatts and an industry output value of over 100 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company's electricity generation volume in Q2 2025 decreased by 4.54% year-on-year, primarily due to the strategy of generating "beneficial" electricity based on the electricity spot market conditions. The wind power generation was also impacted, with a 17.00% year-on-year decrease in Q2 [2][6]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 10.772 billion kWh and a revenue of 6.369 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.44%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.48% year-on-year to 1.337 billion yuan [6]. - The company has a robust project reserve and is expected to benefit from the resumption of approvals for offshore wind projects in Fujian, indicating potential for long-term growth and investment value [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.272 billion yuan, down 8.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 585 million yuan, down 11.65% year-on-year [2][6]. - The total electricity generation for the company in Q2 was 5.433 billion kWh, with a significant contribution from coal-fired power, which generated 4.458 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.54% year-on-year [12]. Market Conditions - The coal price has shown a downward trend, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 yuan/ton in Q2, down 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year, which helps alleviate some cost pressures [12]. - Wind conditions in Fujian province were weaker in Q2, leading to a 17.00% decrease in wind power generation, with offshore wind generation down 15.96% and onshore wind down 18.45% [12]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its share buyback program, having already repurchased 199 million yuan worth of shares, signaling confidence in its long-term value [12]. - The company has six projects approved or under construction, including three pumped storage projects and two combined heat and power projects, which are expected to enhance growth potential [12].