Core Viewpoint - Deep-sea mining is transitioning from exploration to development, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for deep-sea metals, but it still faces significant cost, environmental, and legal challenges before commercialization can be achieved [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The deep sea contains rich metal resources, including over 60 types such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and gold, with an estimated total resource volume of approximately 30 trillion tons and a recoverable potential of about 750 billion tons [4]. - The prices of various metals have surged in recent years, making deep-sea mining economically viable, particularly for metals like copper and cobalt [4]. - Historical attempts at deep-sea mining date back to the late 19th century, with significant efforts in the 1960s and 1970s, but these were largely abandoned due to a lack of understanding of the minerals' uses [4]. Group 2: Environmental and Legal Concerns - There is ongoing controversy regarding the environmental impact of deep-sea mining, with 37 countries advocating for a pause or ban until the effects are fully understood and regulations are established [5][6]. - Key environmental concerns include sediment plumes (referred to as "feather flow"), heavy metal pollution, and noise pollution affecting marine life [7][8]. - Legal issues arise from the international nature of deep-sea resources, governed by frameworks such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which outlines resource management and distribution [8]. Group 3: Commercialization Challenges - Despite technological advancements in deep-sea mining equipment, such as mining vehicles and ships, a viable revenue model has not yet been established [11]. - Current mining vehicles face significant operational challenges, including slippage, sinking, and low extraction efficiency, with the best-performing vehicle extracting only about 100 tons of polymetallic nodules per hour [11][12]. - The complexity of deep-sea equipment development and the high costs associated with testing limit the pace of commercialization [12][13]. Group 4: Alternative Applications and Collaborations - While deep-sea mining vehicles have not yet been commercialized, they have potential applications in offshore wind turbine maintenance, leveraging research in marine geotechnics [14]. - Collaboration between heavy equipment manufacturers and deep-sea mining researchers is encouraged to combine manufacturing strengths with marine expertise, positioning companies advantageously in the deep-sea technology sector [14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss of $184.5 million, or $0.46 per share, compared to a net loss of $20.5 million, or $0.06 per share for the same period in 2024 [25] - Free cash flow for Q3 2025 was negative $11.5 million, compared to negative $5.9 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher environmental, personnel, and corporate payments [28][29] - The company has approximately $165 million of liquidity, with potential additional proceeds from in-the-money warrants exceeding $50 million [6][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exploration and evaluation expenses decreased to $9.6 million in Q3 2025 from $11.8 million in Q3 2024, while general and administrative expenses increased to $45.7 million from $8.1 million in the same period [26] - The revenue mix is expected to be 45% from nickel products, 28% from manganese, 17% from copper, and 9% from cobalt during steady-state production [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company highlighted that America is critically dependent on foreign sources for metals, with imports for manganese, cobalt, and nickel at roughly 100% [7][8] - The U.S. government is taking steps to address vulnerabilities in rare earths and base metals, indicating a strategic shift towards domestic resource development [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a U.S. pivot aimed at achieving a commercial recovery permit by 2027, with ongoing discussions with NOAA and the U.S. government [5][6] - The strategy includes building a comprehensive ecosystem around the nodule resource, emphasizing partnerships and technological advancements [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the U.S. pivot leading to a commercial recovery permit and highlighted the importance of national security and energy independence [5][8] - The company is optimistic about its regulatory path and the potential for significant cash inflows from warrant exercises [6][33] Other Important Information - The company has achieved several industry firsts, including the first SEC-compliant resource statements and the first production of nodule-derived manganese sulfate [13][18] - The pre-feasibility study indicates a combined project net present value of $23.6 billion, with a clear path to first production [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on potential incoming cash from warrants - Management confirmed that total potential proceeds from warrants could exceed $432 million, with a strong liquidity position of $165 million [33] Question: Financial benefits from the Hidden Gem vessel's deployment to Japan - Management clarified that TMC will receive financial benefits from the contract between Allseas and the foundation funding the program, indicating it is not pro bono work [34] Question: Streamlining of NOAA's regulation process - Management explained that the combination of exploration and commercial recovery licenses is intended to facilitate the regulatory process, as TMC already has a prepared application for a commercial recovery permit [36][37] Question: Timing of exploration and production permit grants - Management indicated that the timeline for the exploration permit is aligned with the anticipated production start date of Q4 2027, regardless of whether the permits are granted sequentially [41][42]

Financial Highlights - TMC has $165 million in liquidity as of November 13, 2025, excluding in-the-money warrants [8] - Potential proceeds from Class A and Class C warrants that are in-the-money today is approximately $54 million [14] - Q3 2025 operating loss was $55.3 million, compared to $19.9 million in Q3 2024 [84] - The company's cash balance increased mainly due to proceeds from warrants and stock options, with $7.1 million in proceeds in Q3 2025 and $12.8 million in October 2025 [11, 12] Resource and Production - A billion-tonne resource could supply the US with manganese for 330 years, cobalt for 95 years, nickel for 210 years, and copper for 5 years [18, 20] - The company estimates first production in Q4 2027 [65] - The PFS NPV is $5.5 billion, and the IA NPV is $18.1 billion, resulting in a combined NPV of $23.6 billion [62, 67] - The Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) projects revenue of $595 per dry tonne of nodules, with an EBITDA of $254 per dry tonne (43% margin) [72, 73] Regulatory and Strategic - The US depends entirely on imports for primary nickel, manganese, and cobalt, and 45% for copper [15, 16] - NOAA is streamlining the review of applications for Exploration Licenses (ELs) and Commercial Recovery Permits (CRPs) [32] - The United States and Japan will collaborate on developing rare earth minerals from Japan's seafloor [25]

Core Insights - Deep-sea mining has emerged as a contentious global issue, balancing economic interests, environmental risks, and international regulatory frameworks [1][2] - The International Seabed Authority (ISA) faces pressure from resource-demanding nations and multinational corporations while addressing ecological concerns from island nations and environmental organizations [1] - The negotiation process highlights the need for diverse interests to be balanced, emphasizing the importance of dynamic equilibrium for sustainable cooperation [2] Industry and Company Implications - The deep-sea mining debate underscores the intersection of resource extraction and environmental protection, necessitating that major powers balance development with responsibility in global governance [2] - Informal interactions during negotiations, such as "coffee time," can be crucial for building alliances and reaching consensus, indicating that effective negotiation requires flexibility between formal and informal settings [2] - There is a need for a training mechanism for composite negotiation talents, particularly in China, to enhance capabilities in international negotiations, which is essential for entities "going global" [3]

Core Insights - Deep-sea mining has emerged as a contentious global issue, balancing economic interests, environmental risks, and international regulatory frameworks [1][2] - The International Seabed Authority (ISA) faces pressure from resource-demanding nations and multinational corporations while addressing ecological concerns from island nations and environmental organizations [1][2] - The negotiation process highlights the need for vulnerable countries to leverage moral discourse and alliance strategies to gain relative advantages in international negotiations [1] Group 1: International Negotiation Dynamics - International negotiations seek to balance diverse interests, with countries prioritizing their benefits based on technological investment, resource endowment, and environmental vulnerability [2] - Global governance issues, such as deep-sea mining, require major powers to balance development and responsibility, proposing fair and sustainable institutional arrangements [2] - Informal interactions during negotiations can be crucial for breaking deadlocks, emphasizing the importance of flexibility between formal and informal communication [2] Group 2: Capacity Building for Negotiation - There is a need to enhance the framework and skill set for international negotiations, applicable to various Chinese entities facing complex issues [3] - Understanding cultural differences through field engagement is essential for identifying common ground and avoiding misunderstandings in negotiations [3] - A mechanism for cultivating composite negotiation talents is necessary, with a focus on interdisciplinary training and practical simulation platforms in Chinese higher education [3] Group 3: China's Role in Global Governance - China must uphold core interests while addressing global concerns, demonstrating responsible great power behavior [4] - Enhancing negotiation capabilities across government, enterprises, think tanks, and social organizations is vital for establishing a multi-layered foreign exchange network [4] - This approach will enable China to maintain its bottom line and gain more initiative in complex international negotiations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rally in critical materials stocks, particularly TMC The Metals Company, is driven by the heightened focus on rare earths amid U.S.-China trade tensions and potential de-escalation of the trade war [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - TMC shares surged by 20.3% following a significant drop the previous Friday, reflecting a recovery linked to President Trump's comments suggesting a de-escalation of trade tensions [1][5]. - The overall market saw a "risk-on" rally, particularly benefiting speculative and high-beta stocks like TMC, as investors reacted positively to the easing of trade war threats [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Context - China controls approximately 70% of the global supply of rare earths, which are essential for various industrial and military applications, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials [3]. - Despite TMC not mining rare earths, the company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for other critical minerals necessary for industrial uses [6]. Group 3: Company Profile - TMC is characterized as a high-risk investment, having experienced an extraordinary 855% gain in 2025, but it currently has no revenue and requires significant capital investment [7]. - The potential for deep-sea mining is substantial, with a 2024 analysis estimating the global addressable market for undersea metals could reach as high as $20 trillion [8].

Core Insights - The Earth contains approximately 40 trillion tons of gold, but over 99% of it is located in the core, making it inaccessible for mining [3] - The extractable gold is primarily found in the crust, with an estimated reserve of about 200,000 tons, which is a minuscule fraction of the total [3] - The average grade of gold ore is only 0.5 to 5 grams per ton, leading to high extraction costs [5] - Environmental regulations are becoming stricter, complicating gold mining operations [8] - Current gold recovery methods rely significantly on recycling, accounting for about one-third of global gold supply [10] Mining Challenges - Mining costs are exceedingly high due to the low concentration of gold in ores and the need to process large quantities of rock [5] - Extracting gold from seawater is economically unfeasible, as it requires filtering 250 million tons of seawater to obtain one kilogram of gold [6] - The depletion of easily accessible gold deposits and the increasing difficulty of finding new, high-quality mines are significant challenges [8] Future Prospects - Deep-sea mining may offer new opportunities, although the technology is still underdeveloped [11] - Asteroid mining presents a long-term potential solution, with some asteroids containing metals worth trillions, but current costs exceed potential returns [8][11] - Technological advancements in gold recovery and mining methods will be crucial for future supply [10][11] Conclusion - While gold is abundant in theory, the vast majority is inaccessible, maintaining its scarcity and value [13] - The industry faces significant challenges in extraction and environmental compliance, but future technological breakthroughs may change the landscape of gold availability [13]

Core Insights - The Indian government is accelerating deep-sea exploration in the Central Indian Ocean Basin to initiate polymetallic nodule mining [1] - There is a push for duty-free imports of high-capacity mining and beneficiation equipment [1]

Core Points - The third United Nations Ocean Conference opened on June 9 in Nice, France, marking the largest and highest-level ocean conference in recent years [2][3] - The BBNJ agreement, which aims to protect marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, has seen a significant increase in the number of ratifying countries, reaching 50 [1][6][7] - The conference produced the "Nice Ocean Action Plan," including a political declaration and over 800 voluntary commitments from various stakeholders [4] Group 1: BBNJ Agreement - The BBNJ agreement fills a governance gap by providing a framework for establishing marine protected areas in international waters, which currently account for less than 2% of the ocean [1][7] - As of the conference, 31 countries had ratified the agreement, with an additional 19 countries ratifying it during the conference, leaving only 10 more needed for it to come into effect [6][7][8] - The French President's special envoy projected that by September, there would be 70 ratifications, allowing for the first conference of parties to be held by 2028 [8] Group 2: Conference Participation and Outcomes - The conference attracted 15,000 representatives, including 55 heads of state and government, indicating a heightened global focus on ocean protection [3][4] - The "Nice Ocean Action Plan" aims to unify countries in urgent action for ocean protection, although it lacks binding commitments [4] - The conference also highlighted the need for precaution in deep-sea mining, with 37 countries advocating for a pause or ban on such activities due to environmental concerns [9][10]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has been pursuing deep-sea mining since the 1970s, aiming to expand its influence and control over international seabed resources [1][3] - The Trump administration intensified the focus on "critical minerals," implementing policies to protect the supply chain for key minerals essential for manufacturing and military industries [3][4] - The U.S. has significant deep-sea mineral resources, estimated at over 1 billion tons of polymetallic nodules, which contain essential materials for high-tech products [6][4] Group 2 - The current U.S. administration's push for deep-sea mining reflects a broader strategy to bypass international laws and regulations, aiming to secure critical resource control [9][7] - Environmental experts criticize the U.S. government's actions as reckless and irresponsible, highlighting the potential ecological damage and long recovery times for deep-sea ecosystems [10][12] - The unilateral approach to deep-sea mining raises concerns about the legality and sustainability of such operations, with potential challenges in international recognition and market access for extracted minerals [14][12]