Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.55%, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries, with aquaculture and agricultural product processing leading the gains, while the animal vaccine sector declined [5][12][13] - The average price of live pigs as of July 6 is 14.73 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.38 CNY/kg, and there is market attention on whether prices can reach the 15 CNY/kg mark [6][17] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing deep losses due to weak demand, with chick prices dropping to a near historical low of 1.10 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices falling by 8.82% to 3.10 CNY/kg [7][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.55%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which increased by 1.40% and 1.54% respectively [12] - The aquaculture and agricultural product processing sectors showed significant gains, while the animal vaccine sector faced declines [13] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.64 kg, up 0.5 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [6][17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 120 CNY per head, an increase of 69 CNY from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets decreased to 26 CNY per head [18][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to seasonal price fluctuations, with potential short-term rebounds in July and August [6][19] White Feather Chicken - The average loss per chick is approximately 1.5 CNY, with the average loss per meat chicken at 2.2 CNY due to high temperatures and rising feed costs [7][30] - The update of breeding stock is at 150.07 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, but the uncertainty in imports due to avian influenza poses risks and opportunities for domestic breeding [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices remained stable at 6110 CNY/ton, while soybean prices increased by 2.2% to 3899 CNY/ton [33][34] - Cotton prices rose by 1.36% to 15189 CNY/ton, and corn prices increased by 11 CNY/ton to 2392 CNY/ton [34][37]

Core Viewpoint - The average price of pork in China has decreased in the first half of the year due to stable supply and seasonal decline in demand, with expectations for stable prices in the second half of the year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The average pork price on June 25 was 20.22 yuan/kg, down 11.4% from 22.81 yuan/kg on January 6 [1]. - The pig price in the third week of June was 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting an 11.8% drop since the beginning of the year and a 20.8% year-on-year decrease [1]. - From January to May, the slaughter volume of large-scale pig enterprises reached 15.349 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2]. - Pork imports from January to May totaled 450,000 tons, up 5.2% year-on-year, with May imports at 90,000 tons, an 11.7% increase [2]. - Seasonal demand for pork has declined post-Spring Festival, compounded by warmer weather, leading to a seasonal downturn in consumption [2]. Industry Profitability - Despite the drop in pork prices, the pig farming industry remains profitable, with average profits per head around 120 yuan from January to May, decreasing to about 80 yuan in May [3]. - The price of piglets has shown an overall upward trend this year, contributing to high levels of breeding sows [3]. - Continuous decline in feed prices and improved productivity of breeding sows have led to reduced farming costs [3]. Future Price Trends - The pork price is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations in the second half of the year due to various supply and demand factors [4]. - An increase in the number of breeding sows is anticipated to lead to a steady rise in piglet production, supporting a stable supply of pigs [4]. - Seasonal demand for pork is expected to rise with the approach of cooler weather and upcoming holidays, which will help stabilize prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The pig price has reached a 17-month low, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance in the market, with a recent average price of 14.45 yuan per kilogram, down 1.77% from previous periods [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average pig price showed a fluctuating downward trend last week, with a significant drop due to accelerated selling from the breeding sector and weak demand [1] - The national pig price has hit a low point, with the latest data indicating a price of 14.45 yuan per kilogram, marking a 1.77% decrease [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The breeding sector has increased the pace of market release, leading to an oversupply situation that has pressured prices downward [1] - Despite a rebound in prices after reaching low levels, weak demand continues to limit the extent of price increases [1] Group 3: Regional Variations - In some regions, the sentiment among breeders has shifted towards holding back sales, which has led to a reduction in supply and provided some support for prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pig futures market is experiencing pressure due to stable spot prices early in the week and increased supply as companies accelerate sales to meet monthly targets [1][2] - The average price of live pigs in China as of March 28 was 14.64 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight decline from the previous week [1] - Analysts predict that the supply of pigs will increase from April to May, leading to a market condition of excess supply and weak demand, which will limit the potential for price increases [2][3] Group 2 - Major pig farming company Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, up 519.42% [3] - Muyuan Foods has successfully reduced its pig farming costs from 15.8 yuan per kilogram in January-February to 13 yuan per kilogram by December, a decrease of 17.7% [3] - The company aims for a stable growth strategy, with a target of maintaining an average cost of 12 yuan per kilogram in 2025, having already achieved a cost of 12.9 yuan per kilogram in February [3][4]