证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-09-24 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2972.06 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2242.07 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《猪价低位震荡，产能调减政策效果有 所显现》 - 2025.09.09 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.9.15-2025.9.21） 猪价再创年内新低，"反内卷"再加码 ⚫ 行情回顾：大幅下跌 上周农林牧渔（申万）行业指数跌 2.70%，在申万 31 个一级行业 中涨幅排第 27 位。市场对生猪产能去化能否兑现有较大担忧，生猪、 肉鸡等农业核心板块均大幅下挫。 ⚫ 猪：价格再创年内新低，"反内卷"再加码 截至 9 月 21 日，全国生猪均价 12.69 元/公斤，较上周回落 0.66 元/公斤。周内价格持续下行、继续创年内新低。养殖端出栏积极，造 成市场猪源投放 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.14%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, increased by 2.37% and 1.70% respectively [12][14] - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price as of August 18 being 13.55 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.21 CNY/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [5][16] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to reducing production capacity in the pig farming sector to stabilize prices, with expectations of increased supply pressure in the latter half of 2025 [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with a 0.14% decline in the agricultural index, while the broader indices saw gains [12][14] - The pig farming and related feed sectors experienced the largest declines due to falling pig prices [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Farming - The average pig price has been declining, with significant supply but weak demand leading to a challenging market environment [5][16] - As of August 15, self-breeding pig farmers reported an average profit of 28 CNY per head, down 17 CNY from the previous week, while external pig purchases resulted in a loss of 157 CNY per head [17] - The government is enforcing production capacity reduction policies, which are expected to accelerate in the future [18] Broiler Chicken - As of August 15, the price of broiler chicken chicks rose to 3.80 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.52 CNY per jin, showing a slight decline [31] - The supply of chicks is tight due to reduced breeding and increased culling, leading to a potential slowdown in chick price increases [31] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with white sugar priced at 6000 CNY/ton as of August 15, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [34] - Soybean prices have seen a minor increase, with the landed price of Brazilian soybeans at 4040 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased, with an average price of 2356 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][38] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the agricultural index rising by 2.52%, outperforming the broader market indices [12] - The pig price has reached a new low for the year, with the average price at 13.54 CNY/kg as of August 11, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5][18] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support pig prices in the coming year, with significant supply pressures anticipated in the second half of 2025 [6][21] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing a price increase for chicks due to supply constraints, with chick prices rising to 3.50 CNY per chick [31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index outperformed the market, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [12] - The pig price has dropped below the breakeven point, reflecting strong supply and weak demand [18] Livestock Industry Tracking - **Pigs**: The average pig price is at a yearly low, with a significant supply pressure expected in the latter half of 2025 [5][18] - **White Feather Chicken**: Chick prices have increased due to supply shortages, with a notable decline in the number of breeding chicks updated in the first half of 2025 [31] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have continued to decline, while soybean prices have shown a slight increase [33]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend, reaching a high of 3669.04 points, with significant gains in sectors such as AI and liquid-cooled servers [1] - Several AI-related stocks, including Han's Laser and Industrial Fulian, saw trading volumes exceeding 5 billion yuan [1] - Four stocks, including Yuhua Tian, achieved a "20cm" limit-up, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Zhiyuan Innovation acquired a 5% stake in Shenzhen Yushu Intelligent Robot Co., increasing its registered capital from 50 million yuan to 52.63 million yuan, while Yuhua Tian's subsidiary now holds 95% [3] - Zhiyuan Innovation is the operating entity of the well-known startup "Zhiyuan Robot" [3] - Yuhua Tian's stock price surge is attributed to this equity change announcement [1][3] Group 3: Poultry Market Trends - The price of white feather chicken has experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising from 3 yuan/kg in July to a peak of 3.7 yuan/kg in August, and chick prices increasing from 1.5 yuan to 4.2 yuan [5] - In Shandong, chick prices surged by 300% over a month, reflecting strong demand in the poultry farming sector [5] - The average price of domestic white feather chicken products rose from 8260 yuan/ton to 8420 yuan/ton in July, indicating increased purchasing activity from slaughterhouses [5] Group 4: Stock Performance in Poultry Sector - Over 20 stocks related to the poultry industry are listed on the A-share market, with a total market capitalization of 3280.69 billion yuan, and an average increase of 14.22% this year [6] - Six stocks in the poultry sector have seen cumulative gains exceeding 20%, including Xiaoming Co. and Zhongchong Co. [6] - Xiaoming Co. reported a 97.3% increase in stock price, leading the sector, with a market share exceeding 20% in the breeding of parent stock chickens [7] Group 5: Financial Performance of Key Companies - Saint Farm expects a net profit of 8.5 billion to 9.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 831.00% [8][9] - The company has seen significant growth in retail channels and a reduction in production costs due to improved management and increased use of self-developed breeding stock [8] - Other poultry companies, including He Feng Co. and Ju Xing Agriculture, also reported substantial year-on-year profit growth for the first half of 2025 [9]

Group 1 - The price of chicken seedlings in Shandong has surged by 300% in just over a month due to increased breeding demand [7] - The price of white feather chicken has experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising from 3 yuan/kg in early July to a peak of 3.7 yuan/kg in August [7] - The average price of domestic white feather chicken products increased from 8260 yuan/ton to 8420 yuan/ton in July, indicating a boost in the upstream chicken seedling market [7] Group 2 - The stock market has seen a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3669.04 points, driven by sectors such as AI and chicken-related stocks [2] - Four stocks, including Yuhua Tian, achieved a "20cm" limit-up, with Yuhua Tian's stock price being influenced by a recent equity change announcement [3][5] - The average increase in chicken-related concept stocks in the A-share market is 14.22% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [8] Group 3 - The company Xiaoming Co. has seen a cumulative stock price increase of 97.3%, leading the market, with a market share exceeding 20% in the sale of chicken products [9] - Shengnong Development expects a net profit of 8.5 billion to 9.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.33 to 8.31 times [10] - Over half of the chicken-related concept stocks have a rolling P/E ratio of less than 30 times, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for 1H25, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to low prices for chicken and chick sales [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was 1.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6 million yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -4.0% and -96.6% respectively [1] - In 2Q25, revenue reached 698 million yuan, with a net profit of 1.9 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of +1.4% and -73.8% respectively [1] Sales and Pricing Trends - The company sold 320 million white feather broiler chicks in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, but revenue decreased by 18.6% to 850 million yuan due to a 29.8% drop in average price to 2.7 yuan per chick [2] - Sales of "Yisheng 909" chicks were 46 million, with revenue of 43 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.3% [2] - The company sold 38,000 breeding pigs, a significant increase of 354.9%, with revenue of 90 million yuan, up 296.5% [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 1H25 was 11.8%, down 15.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling chick prices [3] - The expense ratios for sales, management, and financial costs were 1.4%, 9.3%, and 0.6% respectively, with changes in financial costs attributed to increased interest income [3] - The net profit margin decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 0.5% [3] Future Outlook - Chick prices remain under pressure, with a reported price of 1.93 yuan per chick as of July 25, down 37% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding breeding capacity and product sales, including "Yisheng 909" and breeding pigs, while also implementing an employee stock ownership plan to strengthen long-term development [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 37% to 295 million yuan, while the 2026 forecast remains at 620 million yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 33 and 16 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 10.0 yuan indicating a 13% upside potential [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a significant rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 3.62% last week, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture has convened major pig farming companies to discuss capacity regulation, which has positively impacted the breeding sector [5][14] - The pig market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply pressures and weak demand, with the average price of pigs at 14.33 CNY/kg as of July 27, showing a slight decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg from the previous week [6][17] - The white feather chicken market has seen a price rebound, with chick prices rising to 2.30 CNY/chick, an increase of 0.8 CNY/chick from the previous week [26] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index, which rose by 1.67% and 1.69% respectively [13] - The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting with leading pig companies has sparked market interest in pig production capacity regulation [14] 2. Breeding Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.48 kg, down 0.35 kg from the previous week, indicating a supply surplus [17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 62 CNY per head, down 29 CNY from the previous week, while purchased piglets are facing a loss of 71 CNY per head [18] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the need for quality development in the pig industry, including reducing the number of breeding sows and controlling slaughter weights [20] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - The average price of meat chickens has increased by 5.31% to 3.37 CNY/kg, driven by reduced supply and improved demand conditions [26] - The update of grandparent stock has decreased significantly, with a 29.62% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025 [26] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6075 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have rebounded to 3943 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.2% increase [29] - Cotton prices have increased by 1.43% to 15585 CNY/ton, and corn prices have risen slightly to 2379 CNY/ton [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][40]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index increased by 1.09%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index [5][13]. - The report highlights a slight rebound in the market, particularly in the fruit and vegetable processing and breeding sectors, while the aquaculture sector experienced a decline [5][16]. - The report indicates that pig prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a national average price of 14.52 yuan/kg as of July 13, 2025, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous week [6][19]. - The report anticipates seasonal fluctuations in pig prices, with a potential short-term increase during the peak consumption months of July and August, but significant pressure expected in the fourth quarter due to increased supply [7][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index rose by 1.09%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and 1.09%, respectively [13]. - The report notes that the market is rebounding, with previously underperforming sectors seeing some recovery [14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week [6][19]. - The report indicates that self-breeding and self-raising operations are still profitable, with average profits of 134 yuan per head, an increase of 14 yuan from the previous week [20][22]. - The report highlights a cautious approach to increasing production among breeding enterprises due to clear policy guidance [21][22]. Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks was 1.40 yuan/chick, a slight rebound of 0.3 yuan/chick from the previous week, with an average loss of 1.2 yuan per chick [32]. - The report notes that the demand for broilers is weak, leading to significant losses in the industry [32]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices decreased slightly, with white sugar priced at 6100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [34]. - The price of corn was 2399 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 3 yuan/ton [34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.55%, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries, with aquaculture and agricultural product processing leading the gains, while the animal vaccine sector declined [5][12][13] - The average price of live pigs as of July 6 is 14.73 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.38 CNY/kg, and there is market attention on whether prices can reach the 15 CNY/kg mark [6][17] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing deep losses due to weak demand, with chick prices dropping to a near historical low of 1.10 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices falling by 8.82% to 3.10 CNY/kg [7][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index rose by 2.55%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which increased by 1.40% and 1.54% respectively [12] - The aquaculture and agricultural product processing sectors showed significant gains, while the animal vaccine sector faced declines [13] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.64 kg, up 0.5 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [6][17] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 120 CNY per head, an increase of 69 CNY from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets decreased to 26 CNY per head [18][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to seasonal price fluctuations, with potential short-term rebounds in July and August [6][19] White Feather Chicken - The average loss per chick is approximately 1.5 CNY, with the average loss per meat chicken at 2.2 CNY due to high temperatures and rising feed costs [7][30] - The update of breeding stock is at 150.07 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, but the uncertainty in imports due to avian influenza poses risks and opportunities for domestic breeding [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices remained stable at 6110 CNY/ton, while soybean prices increased by 2.2% to 3899 CNY/ton [33][34] - Cotton prices rose by 1.36% to 15189 CNY/ton, and corn prices increased by 11 CNY/ton to 2392 CNY/ton [34][37]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The agriculture sector has shown defensive characteristics amid fluctuations in US-China relations, leading to an increase in the industry index [4][13] - The industry index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose by 1.62%, ranking third among 31 primary industries [12] - The report highlights significant supply pressure in the pig market, with prices remaining stagnant and a forecast for increased supply in the second half of 2025 [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector rebounded, with the industry index increasing by 1.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% [12] - The pig farming and animal vaccine sectors led the gains, while agricultural product processing experienced significant adjustments [15] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - As of June 15, the average price of pigs was 14.06 yuan/kg, down 1.82% from the previous week, indicating a stagnant price situation [5][17] - Supply pressure remains high, with an increase in production capacity since May 2024, and expectations for increased supply in the latter half of 2025 [5][20] - The report suggests that the pig price will likely fluctuate within a narrow range in 2025, with cost competition becoming a key focus for the year [21] Broilers - The price of broiler chicks has slightly decreased, with the price as of June 13 being 2.70 yuan/chick, down 0.2 yuan from the previous week [30] - Concerns regarding the introduction of foreign breeds have eased, and the report emphasizes the potential opportunities for domestic breeding companies due to disruptions in overseas imports [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downward, with the price of white sugar at 6090 yuan/ton as of June 13, down 60 yuan from the previous week [36] - The price of soybeans has slightly decreased, with the imported price at 3707 yuan/ton, down 1.3% [36] - Corn prices have shown slight fluctuations, with an average price of 2356 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous week [36]