Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and secondary fattening increases future supply pressure. In October, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase significantly, but the short - term pressure on large - scale farms has eased to some extent, and farmers are reluctant to sell due to the increasing price difference between fat and standard pigs [8]. - On the demand side, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and terminal consumption has increased but with insufficient continuous increment. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and their slaughter volume has decreased [8]. - Overall, the spot market may fluctuate as the supply pressure has been alleviated by secondary fattening, but the continuous upward space is limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly as there may be double supply pressure before the Spring Festival [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 30th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat and then declined, closing at 11,880 yuan/ton, down 2.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 24,476 lots to 341,989 lots [7]. - Spot: On the 30th, the average price of external ternary pigs nationwide was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Pig Market Comment - Supply: Long - term supply is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and short - term supply pressure in October is high. However, the short - term pressure on large - scale farms has eased, and farmers are reluctant to sell [8]. - Demand: Secondary fattening has turned to a wait - and - see attitude, terminal consumption has increased but with insufficient continuous increment, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has decreased. On October 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 161,100 heads, a decrease compared to the previous day, week, and month [8]. - Overall: The spot market may fluctuate, and the futures market may fluctuate weakly [8]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - Profit: As of October 23rd, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 138 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 50.4 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 378.6 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 53.6 yuan/head [13]. - Piglet Price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of October 23rd was 255 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - Price Difference: The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of October 23rd was 0.69 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.09 yuan/jin [13]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.02 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.39 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.43 yuan/kg [13]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 23rd, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.90 kg, a weekly decrease of 0.35 kg, a monthly decrease of 0.65 kg, and an annual increase of 1.83 kg [13]. - Utilization Rate of Fattening Pens: As of mid - October, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 44.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period and a 10 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [13].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with live pig futures experiencing a downward trend, dropping nearly 2% to 11,920.00 CNY/ton as of the report [1] Price Trends - The average price of piglets in the third week of October is 25.13 CNY/kg, down 3.5% week-on-week and 29.5% year-on-year, marking a 21-month low [2] - Prices for piglets vary by region, with higher prices in South China at 28.23 CNY/kg and lower prices in East China at 24.11 CNY/kg [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of piglets and feed is expected to remain ample into the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026, indicating a continued increase in supply [2] - Post-holiday, the pace of pig slaughter is expected to stabilize, with a decrease in slaughter weight contributing to a gradual easing of supply-demand conditions in the fourth quarter [2] Consumption Trends - After the frost season, daily pork consumption is increasing, indicating a marginal improvement in terminal demand [3] Market Sentiment - According to Zhongyuan Futures, the pace of slaughter is slowing, and there is a sentiment of price recovery in the market, although effective rebounds have not yet formed, maintaining a weak oscillation [4] - Caida Futures notes that the rise in national live pig prices is slowing, with slaughter demand increasing and pressure on slaughtering easing before the end of the month, providing short-term price support [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, with a significant increase in October. Although the pressure on large - scale farms has eased to some extent, there is still supply pressure. Farmers are reluctant to sell due to the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. On the demand side, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and terminal consumption has increased but lacks continuous growth. Spot prices may rebound but have limited upside, and futures prices also face supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with limited upward space [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: On the 28th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, down 1.30% from the previous day, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,847 lots to 308,132 lots [6] - **Spot**: On the 28th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 12.51 yuan/kg, up 0.31 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - No specific news content is provided in the given text 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of October 23, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 138 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 50.4 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 378.6 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 53.6 yuan/head [12] - **Price**: The average market selling price of 15kg piglets in the week of October 23 was 255 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.69 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.09 yuan/jin [12] - **Cost**: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.02 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.39 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.43 yuan/kg [12] - **Slaughter weight**: As of the week of October 23, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.90 kg, a weekly decrease of 0.35 kg, a monthly decrease of 0.65 kg, and an annual increase of 1.83 kg [12] - **Utilization rate**: As of mid - October, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 44.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period and a 10 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [12]

2025 年 10 月 28 日 生猪：短期现货偏强，再累库格局 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12480 | | 500 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 11900 | | 200 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12060 | | 400 | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 12065 | | 575 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 12330 | | 155 | | 期 货 | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11725 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of live pigs has short - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; Sichuan spot price is 11,700 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; Guangdong spot price is 11,660 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. Futures prices for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 11,490 yuan/ton (-25 year - on - year), 12,175 yuan/ton (-25 year - on - year), and 11,570 yuan/ton (-40 year - on - year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volume for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 10,504 hands (600 more than the previous day), 102,151 hands (20,620 more than the previous day), and 20,428 hands (4,824 more than the previous day) respectively. Open interest for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 16,370 hands (-1,376 compared to yesterday), 112,397 hands (5,026 more than yesterday), and 89,282 hands (3,691 more than yesterday) respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis for生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 490 yuan/ton (125 year - on - year), -195 yuan/ton (125 year - on - year), and 410 yuan/ton (140 year - on - year) respectively. The 生猪11 - 1 spread is -685 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change, and the 生猪1 - 3 spread is 605 yuan/ton with a 15 year - on - year increase [2]. 3.2 Market Information - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - Yuexiu and Yangxiang have added delivery warehouses. - In September, the national feed output of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with high pig production capacity and a weak demand outlook. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the pig price is under pressure. Although the policy has released positive signals, the actual reduction in production capacity is less than expected. The pig price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state in the short term, with a possible seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter and a potential price rebound [7][8]. - For the strategy, the main contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 13,000. In the options market, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Spot Market**: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low pig price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, providing some support around 10 yuan/kg. However, the high supply and weak demand situation persists, and the market is expected to remain weak and volatile [7][14]. - **Production Capacity**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the national pig slaughter reached 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. By the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to continue to grow until May 2026 [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook** - **Outlook**: Policy signals are positive, but the actual reduction in production capacity is slow. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand, so the pig price is under pressure. In the medium term, the production capacity is still being released. The government has introduced a "double 100,000 - head" task for large - scale breeding enterprises. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year is still large, but the demand may improve seasonally in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 13,000. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, but the high supply and weak demand situation persists [14]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific information provided. - **Futures Price Spreads**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - Fat and Hairy - White Price Spreads**: The prices of standard and fat pigs increased synchronously this week. The average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.76 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The increase was due to the sufficient supply of standard pigs, low inventory of large - weight fat pigs, and the recovery of catering consumption. The price increase of standard pigs was more significant, leading to a narrowing of the price difference [34]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 166.43 yuan/head, up 0.72% week - on - week and down 50.57% year - on - year. The low market sentiment and strict environmental regulations in Guangdong and Guangxi have reduced the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment [38]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows this week was 8.29 yuan/kg, up 2.01% week - on - week and down 35.59% year - on - year. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the pig price [41]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In September 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Although it is within the normal range, it is at the upper limit. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to grow until May 2026. According to sample data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly in September, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms also decreased [45][48]. - **Culling Volume of Breeding Sows**: In September, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 106,603 heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.60%. The culling volume of small and medium - sized farms was 11,526 heads, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 29.83%. The culling volume is expected to continue to increase in October, but the process may be slow [51]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis provided. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In September, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 36.8499 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The inventory of small and medium - sized farms was 1.5402 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The inventory is expected to increase in October [58]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In September, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.2173 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.4803 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The slaughter volume is expected to increase in October [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.21 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49%. The weight is expected to be supported next week [67]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: The proportion of pigs under 90 kg and over 150 kg in the slaughter volume remained the same as last week. The temperature drop has increased the expectation of a wider standard - fat price difference, but it has little impact on the slaughter proportion of small and large - weight pigs [71]. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The fresh - sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week was 86.14%, the same as last week. The cold - storage rate was 18.08%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The fresh - sales rate is expected to decline next week, and the cold - storage rate may continue to increase slightly [76]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 34.94%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from last week and 7.35 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [77]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Pig Breeding and Slaughtering Profit**: The pig breeding industry has entered a deep - loss stage. The average loss per head of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets this week was 149.54 yuan and 279.65 yuan respectively, both showing a downward trend. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the overall supply - demand pattern has not changed fundamentally [91]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The pig - grain ratio this week was 5.13, a week - on - week increase of 3.89%. The market has returned to the third - level early - warning range. The pig - grain ratio is expected to fluctuate little next week [98].

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 22nd, the main pig contract 2601 opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow - range oscillation, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,220 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The total position of the index increased by 7 lots to 290,211 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Pig Review - Supply: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the pig slaughter volume in October continued to increase significantly, with high supply pressure. However, currently, the slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises across the country shows a stable and slightly faster rhythm, and the short - term slaughter pressure of large - scale farms has been alleviated to some extent. Also, with the expansion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs, farmers have the sentiment of resisting price cuts and delaying slaughter for weight gain [7]. - Demand: Currently, secondary fattening continues to enter the market due to low meat - making costs and the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. After the price rebounded to a high level in some areas, it turned to a wait - and - see attitude. As the weather in the south cools down rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On October 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, an increase of 300 heads from the previous day, 1,300 heads week - on - week, and 10,600 heads month - on - month [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the short - term supply has decreased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The spot price continues to oscillate and rebound. In the futures market, the pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, and it may rebound driven by the spot market. However, the entry of secondary fattening in October was relatively concentrated, and farmers mostly have the sentiment of hoarding and waiting for weight gain. Coupled with the continuous release of production capacity, it will form double supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [7]. Data Overview - Breeding Profit: On October 16th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased from outside was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [11]. - Piglet Price: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [11]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg in this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [11]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of pigs across the country was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [11]. - Slaughtering Enterprise开工率: In the week of October 16th, the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The opening rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise opening rate increased slowly [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term resonance of slaughter, fat - standard, and second - fattening emotions in the pig market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 11,460 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2601 is 12,220 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2603 is 11,585 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2511, the trading volume is 10,907 lots, a decrease of 10,641 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 20,254 lots, a decrease of 1,687 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2601, the trading volume is 80,626 lots, a decrease of 52,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 103,570 lots, an increase of 408 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 15,659 lots, a decrease of 13,058 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 84,415 lots, an increase of 1,227 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2511 is 520 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 315 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2601 is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 265 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 280 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 11 - 1 is - 760 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 1 - 3 is 635 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - New delivery warehouses have been added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang. - In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the demand elasticity of the 2601 contract remains. Driven by the spot market, it may rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest was 12,315 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,235 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 593 lots to 290,204 lots [8] - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.49 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In October, the planned live pig出栏量 of sample enterprises increased by 5.14% compared with the actual出栏量 in September. The出栏量 may continue to increase significantly, and the supply pressure remains high. The average slaughter weight increases seasonally. In the long term, the live pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [9] - Demand: Currently, due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is high, which diverts part of the supply. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with a slight increase in the operating rate and slaughter volume [9] Operation Suggestions - Spot: The supply and demand of live pigs have both increased, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. However, currently driven by the active demand for second - round fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price continues to fluctuate and rebound [9] - Futures: The live pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity and may rebound driven by the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 5: Industry News - On October 16, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 112 yuan/head [10][12] Group 6: Data Overview - On the week of October 16, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - On the week of October 16, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [14] - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [14] - As of the week of October 16, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a weekly decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a monthly decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [14] - On the week of October 16, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The enterprise operating rate fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation increased slowly [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. However, currently driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price shows an oscillating rebound. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase, and the 2601 contract may rebound under the drive of the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 12,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 9,613 lots to 290,797 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side**: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned live pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increases seasonally and slightly. In the long term, the live pig slaughter volume is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [8]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening has high replenishment enthusiasm due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, with the slaughtering rate and volume increasing slightly. On October 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 5,400 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 12,600 heads month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - On October 16th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [13]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [13]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of October 16th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation was slowly rising [13].