Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pig market is experiencing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous, and it is expected that the central price will continue to decline after the festival [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,880 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 550 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,650 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 12,060 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2603 contract is 10,995 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 155 yuan/ton; the pig 2605 contract is 11,685 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the pig 2607 contract is 12,245 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2603 contract is 36,874 lots, an increase of 7,752 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,864 lots, a decrease of 8,977 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the pig 2605 contract is 68,397 lots, a decrease of 1,878 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 144,469 lots, a decrease of 1,506 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the pig 2607 contract is 7,962 lots, an increase of 518 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 50,256 lots, a decrease of 199 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2603 contract is 1,885 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 705 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2605 contract is 1,195 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 600 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2607 contract is 635 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 600 yuan/ton; the spread between the pig 2603 and 2605 contracts is - 690 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the spread between the pig 2605 and 2607 contracts is - 560 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view (the range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish) [4].

2026 年 2 月 5 日 生猪：旺季不旺，预计节前难以消化压力 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12330 | | -300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11750 | | -250 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12260 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11150 | | -10 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11735 | | 135 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12295 | | 125 | | | | | 单 位 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 3rd, the main pig contract 2605 opened slightly lower, then冲高回落 and closed in the negative. The highest price was 11,685 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,565 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,017 lots to 339,037 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 3rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.56 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - Supply: Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be sold before the Spring Festival. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises may decline month - on - month. In the first ten days, the enthusiasm of breeders to sell pigs has increased and the rhythm has accelerated. The slaughter volume will be significantly released around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month [7]. - Demand: The spot price has rebounded to a high level and the Spring Festival is approaching, so second - fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Terminal consumer demand is average. Schools are on holiday one after another, group meals and other consumption may decrease, and the sales of white - striped pigs are poor. In the short term, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month in early February. On February 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 189,000 heads, a decrease of 500 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 heads, and a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, both supply and demand will increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will fluctuate. In the futures market, the production capacity is sufficient, and the pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. There are still some fattened pigs from second - fattening to be sold after the Spring Festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. At the same time, it will enter the consumption off - season after the Spring Festival, and the support for the market is insufficient. Contracts 03/05 will be mainly weak in shock [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of January, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising in the future was 12.18 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 0.82 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg. The cost of raising pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of raising purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.79 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.36 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1 yuan/kg compared with 14.9 yuan/kg [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of January 30, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 46 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/head; the profit of raising pigs with purchased piglets was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 221 yuan/head [12]. - As of January 20, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 37.7%, a ten - day increase of 3.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 7.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 24 percentage points [12]. - According to Yongyi Consulting, the average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in January was 407.8 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 103 yuan/head and a month - on - month increase of 33.8% [12]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in the country in January was 128.6 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 kg (a decrease of 0.9%) and a year - on - year increase of 4.9 kg (a year - on - year increase of 3.96%) [12]. - In 2025, 719.73 million pigs were slaughtered, a year - on - year increase of 17.16 million heads (an increase of 2.4%). Among them, the number of pigs slaughtered in the four quarters was 194.76 million, 171.43 million, 163.73 million, and 189.81 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons (an increase of 4.1%), and the output reached a record high. Among them, the pork output in the four quarters was 16.02 million, 14.18 million, 13.48 million, and 15.70 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Past week, both live hog spot and futures prices declined. The national average spot price dropped by 0.67 yuan to 12.21 yuan/kg, with the southern region being particularly weak. The main futures contract LH2603 fell 2.98% to 11,220 yuan/ton, and the commodity curve's positive structure steepened. The near - end reflects post - holiday off - season pressure, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction and relatively resistant to decline [7]. - Based on previous piglet birth data and hog feed production and sales, the theoretical standard hog slaughter volume in China will remain high until the second quarter. The de - capacity speed of breeding sows in the fourth quarter of last year did not meet the policy control target, and attention should be paid to whether new policy guidance will be introduced [7]. - In the short term, the peak - season demand before the Spring Festival started slowly, and the inventory of live hogs from secondary fattening and pressure - barring was high. As the peak - season window before the Spring Festival shortens, large - weight hogs may be difficult to clear, which means there will still be some digestion pressure after the Spring Festival, which is unfavorable for near - end contracts. After continuous declines, the far - end contracts' valuation has reached an appropriate level, and the further downside space may be limited. The near - end should be treated as oscillating weakly, and long - term buying on dips is recommended for the far - end [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - Live hog spot prices fell last week, and futures also declined. The near - end contracts are under pressure due to post - holiday off - season and inventory issues, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction. The theoretical hog slaughter volume will be high in the second quarter, and the de - capacity of breeding sows did not meet the target. Near - end contracts should be treated as oscillating weakly, and far - end contracts can be bought on dips [7]. 2. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not initiated when a level - three early warning is issued, may be initiated at the discretion when a level - two early warning is issued, and are initiated when a level - one early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are initiated when a level - two early warning is issued and the release intensity is increased when a level - one early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and releases are mainly organized during key periods after a level - one early warning is issued. Provinces can determine their own reserve release initiation conditions, which should not be higher than the central reserve release initiation conditions [65].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] 2. Core View - On the supply side, until April, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase. Second - round fattening pen utilization is currently higher year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the current slaughter rhythm is slightly slow. On the demand side, as the spot price rebounds to a high and the Spring Festival approaches, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumer demand is average, and the consumption of group meals may decrease. The sales of white - striped pigs are poor, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. Overall, the spot market is mainly in a shock state, and the 03/05 futures contracts are mainly in a weak shock state [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: On the 26th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest was 11,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,440 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,258 lots to 345,665 lots [8]. - **Spot**: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 23, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan/kg week - on - week [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of January 23, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 73 yuan/head, an increase of 47.7 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 38.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.8 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - **Slaughter weight**: In the week of January 22, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.89 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%, a decrease of 0.81 kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%, and an increase of 7.38 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 6.07% [13]. - **Price difference**: In the week of January 22, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.64 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.16 yuan/jin week - on - week [13]. - **Fattening cost**: The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Annual data**: In 2025, the number of pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million year - on - year, a growth of 2.4%. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 4.1%, reaching a record high [13].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 02 PART TWO 生猪基本面数据 现货价格 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 生猪：近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | - ...

021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 22 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，21 日生猪主力 2603 合约平开后震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最高 11555 元/吨，最低 11430 元/吨，收盘报 11470 元/ ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with live pig futures experiencing a slight decline of 1.29%, settling at 11,465.00 yuan/ton [1] - In the spot market, domestic pig prices have generally decreased, with the average price in Henan dropping by 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, while prices in Sichuan remained stable at 13.02 yuan/kg [2] - The supply side indicates that the pace of hog slaughter may accelerate before the Spring Festival, with some producers potentially advancing their slaughter schedules to this month [2] Group 2 - The supply of live pigs remains high, with production reduction being relatively slow, leading to a loose supply situation for both live pigs and pork [2] - Demand analysis suggests that upcoming cold weather and precipitation may complicate the slaughter process, while the approach of the Spring Festival is expected to support pig prices due to increased stocking activities [2] - Future market trends indicate a slight increase in live pig supply, with high levels of breeding stock remaining, and the market is expected to experience weak fluctuations post-festival [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the spot market, consumption is increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and the spot price will fluctuate. On the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, the pressure of second - fattening is still relatively high compared to the same period, the current epidemic situation is sporadic seasonally without continuous spread, and after the Spring Festival, it enters the off - season of consumption, so the 03 contract will mainly fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,745 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,530 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53% compared to the previous day. The total position of the index decreased by 12,586 lots to 344,360 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 13.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side**: Before the New Year's Day, the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment increased periodically. Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is higher than the same period last year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. Currently, the slaughter in the north is normal, while in the south, the quantity is controlled to raise prices, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7]. - **Demand - side**: Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The demand for curing and enema is near the end, the terminal consumer consumption has increased slightly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On January 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 186,600 heads, a decrease of 5,000 heads compared to the previous day, flat week - on - week, and a decrease of 19,000 heads month - on - month [7]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 15th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, an increase of 62 yuan/head compared to the previous week [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.15 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening externally purchased piglets to 125kg and then slaughtering was 12.24 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 yuan/kg. As of January 15th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was +25.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.8 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 100.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 29.3 yuan/head [16]. - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85kg, an increase of 0.31kg compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a decrease of 1.33kg compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and an increase of 5.89kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 4.79% [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on the hog market on January 19, 2026, with the title "Supply Pressure Reduces, Spot Runs Strongly" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot hog prices across the country are running strongly, but considering the high inventory and large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure may continue to show, and the spot price is expected to decline in the long - term [3][5] - Hog futures prices continued to decline today, affected by recent data and the full reflection of positive factors in previous price increases. The futures price may face downward pressure after the current round of increase stabilizes [5] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 13.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have increased, with the largest increase of 1 yuan/kg in Guangdong [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices of most contracts declined, such as LH03 down 275 yuan, LH05 down 210 yuan [3] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 330 yuan, up 23 yuan from last week; sow prices remain unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 7.39 yuan, up 18.93 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets is 48.35 yuan, up 50.66 yuan [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 is - 825, up 75 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 is 1290, down 270 from yesterday [3] Slaughter and Size Pig Spreads - The slaughter volume is 191,453 heads, down 927 from yesterday. The large - to - standard pig spread is 0.7, up 0.21 from yesterday [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]