Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply pressure of live pigs eases slightly at the beginning of the month, and the spot price fluctuates and rebounds. The 2511 and 2601 futures contracts are in the peak demand season, with supply increasing slightly and demand increasing relatively more. The current spot price stabilizes and rebounds, and the short - term downside space may be relatively limited, mainly following the spot price to fluctuate and rebound [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: On the 3rd, the main 2511 contract of live pig futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated narrowly and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 384 lots to 180,527 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 13.97 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Comments**: In September, the slaughter volume of live pigs may continue to increase, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, with still existing slaughter pressure. However, since August, the overall slaughter enthusiasm has been strong, the rhythm has been fast, there has been overselling in some areas, and the slaughter weight has declined. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs may still maintain a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and there is an expectation of low - price second - fattening entry. At the beginning of September, universities in various regions started school one after another, and the centralized procurement of canteens at the beginning of the month boosted the market. In addition, the weather continued to cool in some areas, and the terminal consumption of residents may increase. The orders of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased, the slaughter progress was relatively fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased. On September 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 149,800 heads, an increase of 12,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 80,000 heads from a week ago [9] 2. Industry News - As of August 21st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 57.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10] 3. Data Overview - On August 21st, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 2.54%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 1.29% [19] - The planned slaughter volume of live pigs of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July, with a significant increase in slaughter volume [19] - As of the week of August 21st, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [19]

Core Insights - The significant decline in live pig futures prices reflects market expectations regarding the pork industry [1] - The future trend of pig prices remains uncertain, influenced by various market factors [1] - The impact of African swine fever on the industry is currently minimal, suggesting resilience in the market [1] Group 1 - The sharp drop in live pig futures indicates a bearish sentiment among investors [1] - Market expectations are shaped by supply and demand dynamics, as well as external factors affecting the pork industry [1] - The resilience of the industry against African swine fever suggests that current biosecurity measures are effective [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The core view is that the pig slaughter volume has decreased, and the futures and spot prices are oscillating. The investment view is neutral, with cautious second - fattening demand, stable supply, cost support at the bottom, and the market likely to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish, long - term bullish. The inventory and performance of sows capable of reproduction are steadily recovering. Theoretical calculations suggest that future supply will continue to increase, with greater pressure in the fourth quarter. However, the state is optimizing production capacity and guiding weight reduction, which is beneficial for the long - term market [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. The utilization rate of pens for second - fattening has decreased, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is low. Seasonal temperature drop and pre - holiday stocking demand have led to a seasonal improvement in terminal consumption [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis and monthly spread oscillated at a low level this week [3]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The breeding profit has turned slightly negative [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, with limited downside space [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand and a moderately loose monetary policy, which are helpful for boosting long - term pork demand [3]. - **Investment View**: Neutral. Second - fattening demand is cautious, supply is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to second - fattening demand and feed prices; for arbitrage, also wait and see [3]. 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: The report presents price data of Henan standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and first - three - grade white - striped pigs from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Production Capacity Scale**: It shows the inventory data of sample sows capable of reproduction, including inventory volume, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, as well as relevant data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of newly - born healthy piglets and commodity pig slaughter numbers in five - province samples, and survival rates in pigsties and fattening [11][13][23]. - **Commodity Pig Inventory Structure**: It includes the inventory proportion data of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg) from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - **Price Spread and Weight Data**: It shows the standard - fat price spread, north - south price spread, average slaughter weight, and average weight after slaughter [33]. - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Data**: It presents the monthly slaughter volume data of leading enterprises such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [42]. - **Slaughter Situation**: It includes daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse开工率, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as white - striped pork wholesale volume in Xinfadi Market, arrival volume in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao markets, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [49][56]. - **Profit and Cost Data**: It shows self - breeding and self - fattening profit, profit from purchasing piglets, pig - grain ratio, and fattening pig feed price [58]. 3.3 Pig Capital - related Data The report shows the basis data of 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts, and the spread data between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, and 05 - 09 from 2022 - 2025 [64][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report's view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weights and support pig prices to some extent. If farmers continue to reduce pig weights or keep them stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is somewhat favorable for the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - On August 26, there were 430 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs. The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 241 lots today, with a position of about 70,300 lots. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,860 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter will generally increase oscillatively in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatively. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced weights, which is beneficial for the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [2] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding end), and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weights and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weights or keep the weights stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is beneficial for the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Market Overview - On August 26, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.66% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.56 yuan/kg and 13.57 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.15 yuan/kg (1.09%) and 0.05 yuan/kg (0.37%). Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts all declined, with decreases ranging from 5 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton and decline rates from 0.04% to 0.94%. The main basis in Henan was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 50% from the previous day [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the terminal and second - fattening demand may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a potential low - level rebound in spot pig prices. The near - month 2509 futures contract may follow the spot price with a small rebound at the bottom. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a small increase in pig supply and a relatively large increase in demand. Along with factors like pork stockpiling, initiatives for high - quality development, and strengthened environmental protection, the medium - to - long - term pig prices are expected to rebound [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 26th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened lower, then fluctuated upwards and closed with a positive candle. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,305 lots to 181,393 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost remains low, increasing the expectation of second - fattening at low prices, which may reduce the slaughter pressure of farmers. The current demand is still in the seasonal off - season, with terminal demand remaining at a low level on a month - on - month basis. As students start school in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually pick up. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughtering rate and volume have increased slightly. On August 26th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,300 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day and the same as that of a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high, with second - fattened pigs being continuously released, so the slaughter pressure still exists. The average slaughter weight has slightly declined, and the weight pressure on farmers has weakened in the second half of the month. In the long run, pig slaughter may continue to increase slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided, only figure information about breeding profit, cost, etc. 3. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of August 21st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 57.6 yuan/head, also a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [14]. - **Piglet Price**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 21st was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 1.29% [14]. - **Planned Slaughter Volume**: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July [14]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of August 21st, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [14].

Report Overview - Industry: Pig farming - Date: August 26, 2025 - Report Type: Daily report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the cost of fattening remains low. The expectation of second - round fattening at low prices has increased, which may reduce the pressure on farmers to sell pigs. Although current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with the start of school - related stocking in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually recover. - On the supply side, the planned pig出栏 volume in August is expected to increase significantly compared to July, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens remains high. However, the weight pressure on farmers has decreased recently. In the long term, pig出栏 is likely to maintain a slight increase. - Overall, in the spot market, demand from terminals and second - round fattening may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a possible low - level rebound in spot prices. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract may follow the spot price with a small - scale bottom - rebound. Contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak - demand season, and with a relatively larger increase in demand compared to supply, along with positive factors such as pork storage, high - quality development initiatives, and environmental protection efforts, the prices are expected to rebound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 25th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 13,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from last Friday. The total open interest of the index decreased by 3,810 lots to 182,698 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 25th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses on August 25th was 140,800 heads, down 1,100 heads from the previous day but up 400 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short - term, spot prices may rebound from lows, and near - month futures contracts may follow the spot price. Peak - demand season contracts are expected to rebound due to relatively larger demand growth [9]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of August 15th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 36 yuan/head. The average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 52 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - **Price and Sales Volume**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15th was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week. The planned pig出栏 volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from the actual出栏 volume in July [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of the slaughter sample in the week of August 15th was 1.6335 million heads, a 1.88% increase from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume was 138,446 heads, a 0.96% increase from the previous week [14]. - **Average Weight**: As of the week of August 15th, the average weight of nationwide pig出栏 was 127.82 kg, a 0.02% increase from the previous week and a 1.31% increase from the same period last year [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view on the pig market is that it will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract already has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 20, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 2,684 lots today, with a position of about 70,600 lots. The highest price today was 13,900 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,685 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,775 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase oscillatingly; on the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic is that the current weight reduction is beneficial to the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the November contract [4]. Market Overview - On August 20, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.51% compared with the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 13.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.22%; in Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74% [6]. - For futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 0.63%, the 03 contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton or 0.3%, etc. The basis of the main contract in Henan increased by 155 yuan/ton or 119.23% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report also presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, etc. over the years, as well as the closing prices of futures contracts in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts [7][9][10][14].

Report Information - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs in August is expected to increase significantly, with high enthusiasm among farmers for selling. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and spot prices may continue to face pressure. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract fluctuates weakly following the spot market. In the medium - to - long - term for far - month contracts, although supply shows a slight increase, contracts like 2511 and 2601 are in the peak demand season, and with positive factors such as the anti - involution high - quality development initiative and strengthened environmental protection, the downside space is relatively limited [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 19th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,425 lots to 181,426 lots. - Spot: On the 19th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.67 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pig pens is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is currently low, with most in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and orders from slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughtering progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 18, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,400 heads, 800 heads less than the previous day but 1,400 heads more than a week ago. - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in July. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released, so there is still pressure on slaughter volume, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided in the text. 3. Data Overview - Profit: As of August 15, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head. - Piglet price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15 was 484 yuan/head, 33 yuan/head lower than the previous week. - Slaughter volume: In the week of August 15, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.6335 million heads, an increase of 30,100 heads compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.88%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads compared to the previous week, with an average daily increase of 0.96%. - Planned slaughter volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase compared to July. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.82 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%, and an increase of 1.65 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.31% [14].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, with the supply pressure improving compared to before, but still existing due to the high inventory level. The scale enterprises'出栏量 has continued to tighten, while the ordinary farmers'出栏 progress has slowed down. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm is average, and the follow - up increase in entry enthusiasm is expected to be limited. The futures market is affected by the spot pressure, with the far - month contract having support but the near - month contract facing obvious pressure[2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Spot Information - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, and the supply was slightly tightened. The scale enterprises'出栏量 continued to tighten, but the overall supply pressure still existed due to the poor overall出栏 completion. The ordinary farmers'出栏 progress slowed down, and there was some pressure on the market to hold back pigs. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm was average, and the size - pig price difference increased slightly[2] Futures Information - The live pig futures market showed an oscillating trend today. The far - month contract was affected by the previous large increase and the current supply pressure, with some downward pressure, but still having support. The near - month contract faced obvious pressure[5] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips in the far - month contract - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage - Options: Sell far - month put options[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for live pigs continues to be weak. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume has been poor recently, and it is difficult to absorb market supply. The spot performance over the weekend was again below expectations, and there is a sentiment of panic selling. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The trend of closing the premium continues. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center. Short - term support for the LH2509 contract is at 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is at 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 14,990 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year. Futures prices: LH2509 is 13,640 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2511 is 13,820 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2601 is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For LH2509, trading volume is 7,834 lots, an increase of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 14,091 lots, a decrease of 1,630 lots from the previous day. For LH2511, trading volume is 35,708 lots, an increase of 15,263 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 71,193 lots, an increase of 6,351 lots from the previous day. For LH2601, trading volume is 13,123 lots, an increase of 3,215 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 47,783 lots, an increase of 1,038 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 140 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2511 basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2601 basis is - 380 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year. LH9 - 11 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with a range of [- 2,2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].