1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, with a focus on the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixes and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market is mainly trading on the expected increase in production in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.6% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Market Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Core Contradiction - The market is currently focused on the current and future Brazilian sugar production during the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established, and after domestic restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing, the situation is relatively stable. The market is trading on the expected production increase in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3.2.2 Bullish Factors - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 464.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.71 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5]. - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) expects India's 2024/25 sugar - crushing season's ending sugar inventory to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of May, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the sugar - making ratio was 48.61%, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. 3.2.3 Bearish Factors - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed - sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons, and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [6]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [6]. - Thailand's 24/25 sugar - crushing season production is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [6]. - The Indian monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, reaching about 35 million tons due to good monsoon conditions, expanded sugar - cane planting areas in major producing regions, and the government's increase in the minimum sugar - cane purchase price [6]. 3.3 Sugar Price Data 3.3.1 Sugar Basis Daily Changes - On June 9, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 490, with a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 310, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 3 [7]. 3.3.2 Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5580, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; the closing price of SR03 was 5554, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; etc. [9]. 3.3.3 Sugar Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6080, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10; the price of Liuzhou sugar was 6130, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15; the price of Kunming sugar was 5900, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 45 [10]. 3.3.4 Sugar Import Price Daily Changes - On June 10, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4543, with a daily decrease of 12 and a weekly decrease of 48; the out - of - quota price was 5774, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 62 [10].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The current market is in the new Brazilian sugarcane crushing season, with the main focus on the expected increase in Brazilian production. Indian sugar production has decreased and Thai production has increased. After the restrictions on domestic syrup and premixes and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has few variables [4]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.04% and a historical percentile of 3.1% over 3 years [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can sell SR2507 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 5900 - 5950 range and sell SR507C6000 call options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 20 range [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy SR2507 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 5750 - 5800 range and sell SR509P5600 put options at a 75% ratio in the 30 - 40 range [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The market is mainly debating the current and future sugar production in Brazil. Indian production decline and Thai production increase are established facts. After restrictions on domestic syrup and premixes and domestic sugar crushing completion, the situation is relatively stable. The recent market is trading on the expected increase in Brazilian production [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - India's sugar production has declined this season, but the expected ending inventory of 480 - 500 million tons can meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [6]. - China has suspended the import of Thai syrup and premixes [6]. - In the second half of April in Brazil's central - southern region, the sugarcane crushing volume was 17.725 million tons, a 49.35% year - on - year decrease, sugar production was 856,000 tons, a 53.79% year - on - year decrease, and ethanol production decreased by 35.37% to 985 million liters. The sugar - cane ratio was 45.82% compared to 44.22% in the previous season. Rainfall in late April led to lower - than - expected crushing [6]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Heavy rainfall in Guangxi since May 9 has alleviated the previous drought [7]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's 25/26 sugar production to 46 million tons [7]. - Thailand's 24/25 sugar production is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [7]. 3.5 Market Data - **Sales Data**: As of the end of April, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 7.2446 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4981 million tons (26.07%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 65.22% (the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons), 7.49 percentage points faster than the same period last year [9]. - **Basis Data**: On May 28, 2025, the basis between different regions and futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 481, with a daily increase of 34 and a weekly increase of 59 [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On May 28, 2025, the closing prices of different sugar futures contracts showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, SR01 closed at 5674, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly decline of 0.94% [11]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread Data**: On May 28, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions also changed. For example, the price in Nanning was 6155, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5 [12]. - **Import Price Data**: On May 28, 2025, the import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar decreased. For example, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar was 4680, with a daily decrease of 16 and a weekly decrease of 106 [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The current market has entered the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, and there is a competition in the market regarding the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The reduction in India's production and the increase in Thailand's production are already facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixed powder and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market has mainly been trading on the expectation of Brazilian sugar production increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 48.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price decline, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6000 - 6030, and sell call options (SR507C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5850 - 5870, and sell put options (SR507P5800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The main contradiction in the current sugar market is the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production during the new crushing season, while the situations in India and Thailand are relatively stable, and the domestic situation has little change after relevant restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing [4]. 3.3 Bullish Factors - As of the end of March, the national sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons (26.64%), and the cumulative sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster year - on - year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than the same period last year. The cane crushed was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) compared to the same period last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) compared to the same period last year. The final output may be less than 26 million tons [5]. - China has suspended the import of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - As of May 6, 37 sugar mills in Yunnan have completed the crushing process, 8 less than the same period last year. The crushing capacity of the completed mills is 134,400 tons per day, a decrease of 24,600 tons per day compared to the same period last year. 15 sugar mills have not completed the crushing, and the planned crushing time has been postponed due to rainfall [5]. - In the second half of April in the central - southern region of Brazil, 17.725 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year decrease of 49.35%. The sugar production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.79%, and the ethanol production decreased by 35.37% to 985 million liters. The sugar - to - cane ratio was 45.82%, compared with 44.22% in the previous season. The crushing volume was lower than expected due to rainfall in late April [5]. 3.4 Bearish Factors - Starting from May 9, there has been a lot of rainfall in Guangxi, alleviating the previous drought situation [12]. - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/2026 crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [12]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/2025 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [12]. 3.5 Sugar Price Data - **Spot Price**: On May 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6120, down 20 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Liuzhou, it was 6160, down 10 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Kunming, it was 5910, down 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; in Rizhao, it was 6260, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [10]. - **Futures Price**: On May 16, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5723, with a daily decline of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SR03 was 5693, with a daily decline of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 0.25%; SR05 was 6000, with a daily decline of 1.15% and a weekly decline of 0.78%; SR07 was 5936, with a daily decline of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.2%; SR09 was 5855, with a daily decline of 0.53% and a weekly increase of 0.27%; SR11 was 5774, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 0.23% [9]. - **Import Price**: On May 16, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4919, up 65 from the previous day and up 33 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6264, up 85 from the previous day and up 44 from the previous week. The in - quota import price of Thai sugar was 4884, up 65 from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6218, up 85 from the previous day and up 52 from the previous week [11].