行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recovery of sugar production in Brazil suppresses sugar prices, while Zhengzhou sugar shows relatively strong performance compared to the external market, with the 5600 mark having strong support [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly, with the main October contract closing down 0.85% at 16.34 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.1% at $492.70 per ton. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken yesterday, with the 01 contract closing at 5623 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan or 0.45%, and reducing positions by 264 lots. Today, Zhengzhou sugar 01 fluctuated narrowly, performing slightly stronger than the external market, with three consecutive lower shadow lines on the technical chart and strong support at the 5600 mark. After the market, the previous speculative long positions started to turn short [7][8] - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Unica report, in the first half of August, the total sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.17%, and the sugar production increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons [7] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in the producing areas decreased slightly, with the price of Nanning sugar at 5960 yuan and that of Kunming sugar at 5790 yuan [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil's Port Shipping**: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting for export in the week, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.4764 million tons. The quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 1.7817 million tons, and that at Paranagua Port was 0.6127 million tons [9] - **Brazil's Sugar Production Forecast**: Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for the country's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane cultivation. The sugar production in the central - southern region is currently estimated at 40.6 million tons, a 2.8% decrease from the April forecast of 41.8 million tons. Despite the downward adjustment, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [9] - **ICE Position Data**: As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 lots, a decrease of 2,291 lots from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 179,365 lots, a decrease of 11,403 lots from the previous week; speculative short positions were 310,352 lots, an increase of 4,227 lots from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 130,987 lots, an increase of 15,630 lots from the previous week [9] - **Guangxi Sugar Inventory**: According to data from the Pan - Sugar Technology Smart Storage and Transportation Platform, as of August 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than the average level of the past five years. In August, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 140,000 tons compared to July, and the de - stocking speed slowed down significantly [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][16] - **Top 20 Seats' Trading and Position Data**: The total trading volume of the top 20 seats was 187,750 lots, a decrease of 12,543 lots; the total long position was 252,364 lots, a decrease of 178 lots; the total short position was 269,805 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [22]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：Conab：巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7 月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。 2025年7月中国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同 比减少6.85万吨。中性。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：进口糖近几个月大量增加，目前01价格接近配额外进口糖成本价。短期郑糖01可能围绕 5600上下震荡，除非外糖跌破16美分，否则郑糖进一步下跌空间有限。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6000，基差396（01合 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,631, down 47 (-0.83%), volume 4,579 (down 2,199), open interest 9,042 (down 2,316) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,620, down 12 (-0.21%), volume 147,466 (down 63,662), open interest 363,151 (down 2,979) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,586, down 13 (-0.23%), volume 5,530 (down 3,583), open interest 30,114 (up 318) [5] Spot Market - Sugar Spot Prices: Ranging from 5,905 (Kunming) to 6,370 (Xi'an), with price changes from -40 (Wuhan) to 0 (Bayuquan, Rizhao, Xi'an) [5] - Basis: Ranging from 274 (Kunming) to 739 (Xi'an) [5] Monthly Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -34, down 1; SR09 - SR5: Spread 45, down 34; SR09 - SR01: Spread 11, down 35 [5] Import Profit - Brazil Import: Quota - in price 4,489, out - of - quota price 5,719, difference with Liuzhou 301, with Rizhao 331, with futures -88 [5] - Thailand Import: Quota - in price 4,479, out - of - quota price 5,705, difference with Liuzhou 315, with Rizhao 345, with futures -74 [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - Brazil: As of August 20, 70 ships waiting to load sugar (down from 76), 2.9169 million tons of sugar waiting (down from 3.3179 million tons) [7] - Domestic Processed Sugar: Some processed sugar quotes were lowered on the 27th, overall trading was average [8][9] - Brazil's Production Forecast: Conab lowered the 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons (down 3.1% from April), ethanol production to be affected [10] Logic Analysis - International: Brazil at supply peak, global inventory may enter accumulation phase. Sugar production is low due to low cane crush and sugar content. Final output is uncertain, and external sugar is expected to be range - bound [11] - Domestic: Fast domestic sugar sales, low inventory, but large imports. Domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow external trends [11] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow external sugar trends and fluctuate in a narrow range [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide - straddle options [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts related to sugar market data such as monthly inventory, industrial inventory, sales rate, spot prices, spreads, and basis [17][23][27][31][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The actual sugar production in Brazil is currently lower than expected, and the final output remains uncertain. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. The domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is greatly affected by the international market and is expected to follow the trend of external sugar, with prices fluctuating slightly within a range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles can be considered [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,678, down 42 (-0.73%); SR01 closed at 5,632, down 56 (-0.98%); SR05 closed at 5,599, down 47 (-0.83%). The trading volume of SR01 increased by 78,039, and its open interest decreased by 1,534 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan were reported. The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions ranged from 227 to 692 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 33, up 9; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 79, up 5; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 46, up 14 [5]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, along with their spreads to the Liuzhou and Rizhao spot prices and the futures price [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: - Brazil exported 281.39 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of August 2025, a 0.27% increase from the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 17.58 million tons [7]. - The quotes of processing sugar in various regions such as Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong remained unchanged, with general trading volume [8]. - As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403, short positions increased by 4,227, and the net short position increased by 15,630 [10]. - **Logical Analysis**: - Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected due to low cane crushing volume and sugar content. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways [11]. - Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is arriving, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price and fluctuate slightly in the short - term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles [14]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, sugar basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][24][25][28][30].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 联系方式： 白糖日报 liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,720 | -6 | -0.10% | 6,005 | -145 | 14,926 | -3217 | | SR01 | | 5,688 | 18 | 0.32% | 133,089 | -2405 | 367,664 | 5745 | | SR05 | | 5,646 | 15 | 0.27% | 3,371 | 24 | 28,556 | 250 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 6030 | 5905 | 6230 | 5970 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 21 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 马来西亚进口 0.13 万吨;同期 21069062 项下进口预混粉 26.51 万吨，绝大部分 26.14 万吨从泰 国进口。 3、沐甜 21 日讯：广西:南宁中间商站台报价 6010 元/吨，报价上调 10 元，成交一般;南 宁仓库报价 5970 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。柳州中间商站台报价 6030 元/吨，仓库报价 5980-6000 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。广东:广州中间商湛江糖报价 6080 元/吨，报价不变， 成交一般。湛江中间商仓库报价暂无。 | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stocking phase due to the supply peak in Brazil, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is influenced by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and short - term traders can consider shorting at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,727 with a gain of 11 (0.19%), SR01 at 5,676 with a gain of 15 (0.26%), and SR05 at 5,633 with a gain of 14 (0.25%). The trading volume of SR09 decreased by 11,626 to 7,025, SR01 decreased by 17,130 to 153,382, and SR05 increased by 22 to 5,472. The open interest of SR09 decreased by 3,907 to 25,928, SR01 increased by 5,283 to 343,739, and SR05 increased by 171 to 26,617 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some fluctuations. In places like Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc., prices changed, with Liuzhou at 6030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Kunming at 5905 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. The basis for different regions ranged from 178 to 643 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 43 (down 1), SR09 - SR5 spread was 94 (down 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was 51 (down 4) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 4435 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5648 yuan/ton, with a spread of 382 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou prices and 402 yuan/ton compared to Rizhao prices. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 4453 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5671 yuan/ton, with spreads of 359 yuan/ton and 379 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: From January to July 2025, China imported 179 million tons of sugar, including 168,400 tons of white sugar and 1.6125 billion tons of raw sugar. In July, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 622,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 557,600 tons [7][8][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, due to the supply peak in Brazil, the global sugar inventory is expected to increase, and raw sugar prices have declined. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low, but a large amount of imported sugar is entering the market, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow the international trend [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, for unilateral trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6040，基差379（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：白糖进口量大幅增加，由于国内销售较好，现货价格坚挺。郑糖01合约短期5640-5700 区间震荡。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格在17美分/磅下方，进口利润窗口打开，进口冲 击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to start accumulating. Recent reports show high sugar production and a record - high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, leading to a likely higher - than - expected sugar output and a decline in raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress [11]. - Domestic market: The sales of domestic sugar are fast, and inventories are low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. Domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. In the short - term, consider short - selling at high prices. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. Sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures market**: SR09 closed at 5,716 with a decline of 20 (-0.35%), SR01 at 5,661 (-11, -0.19%), and SR05 at 5,619 (-7, -0.12%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [5]. - **Spot market**: Today's sugar prices in different regions are as follows: 6040 in Liuzhou, 5905 in Kunming, 6220 in Wuhan, 5980 in Nanning, 6175 in Bayuquan, 6050 in Rizhao, and 6370 in Xi'an. The price in Wuhan decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged. The basis and monthly spreads are also provided [5]. - **Import profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - free price is 4435, and the out - of - quota price is 5648. For Thai imports, the quota - free price is 4453, and the out - of - quota price is 5671 [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important information**: - Brazil exported 188.32 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August 2025, with a daily average of 17.12 million tons. In August 2024, the export volume was 392.08 million tons, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [7]. - In July 2025, the sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the recoverable sugar decreased by 4.8% [7]. - In July 2025, China's beverage output was 1796.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 11101.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [7]. - In July 2025, China's refined sugar output was 41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 982.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [8][10]. - In Yunnan, the average number of effective sugarcane stems per mu this year is 4200, an increase of 80 compared to last year. As of July, the average height of sugarcane is 127.2 cm, an increase of 3 cm compared to last year [10]. - **Logical analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazil's high - peak supply. Domestic sugar prices are influenced by international prices due to the entry of imported sugar [11]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling at high prices [12]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Options trading**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts, such as those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales rates of domestic sugar, basis, and price spreads [15][20][24][26][28][29].