白酒消费

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散瓶飞天茅台回收价跌破2000元,渠道商破防:从来没有过!
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-06-11 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle, with a decline of over 10% compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai reached 2020 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 2080 yuan for boxed bottles [2]. - The retail price in some Beijing stores is around 2100-2300 yuan per bottle, with indications that prices may rise slightly after mid-July due to seasonal demand [2]. - The recovery price for loose bottles has fallen below 2000 yuan, reaching 1970 yuan, marking a historical low [6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the end of the peak consumption season around the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a seasonal downturn in white liquor sales [6][7]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly during the "6·18" sales event, have further pressured prices, with some platforms offering Moutai at prices as low as 1499 yuan [7][8]. Supply Chain and Distribution - Moutai has increased the distribution of non-standard products, which has affected the demand for Feitian Moutai, contributing to the price drop [8]. - The company has implemented measures to control supply, including halting direct sales of 500ml Feitian Moutai and freezing a portion of inventory to stabilize prices [8][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai plans to adjust its product structure across various sales channels to enhance consumer reach and improve operational capabilities [9]. - The company aims to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and preferences by exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional gifting and dining occasions [9].
食品饮料行业周报:啤酒饮料正当旺季,关注大众品上新催化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-06-08 13:20
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点:啤酒饮料正当旺季,关注大众品上新催化 投资建议:1、白酒:淡季筑底、中长期价值凸显,建议关注" 优势龙头、红 利延续、强势复苏"三条主线:1)优势龙头,头部酒企份额持续提升:贵州 茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒;2)红利延续,高确定性区域酒:今世 缘(江苏格局红利)、迎驾贡酒(洞藏大单品红利)等;3)受益复苏与风险偏 好提升,弹性标的:泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、 酒鬼酒等。2、大众品:燕京 U8 改革深化,农夫山泉推新" 茶 ",山姆供应 链上新加速,建议寻找高成长与强复苏两条主线:1)高景气或高成长逻辑: 盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、 好想你等,港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、卫龙美味等。2)政策受益或复苏改善: 青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、 安井食品、立高食品等,港股 H&H 国际控股等。 白酒:茅台发布 走进系列",淡季进一步筑底。近期在时隔 6 年后,贵州茅 台上新走进系列新品,并于 6 月 5 ...
压在白酒头上的10座大山,连茅台也快扛不住了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 10:33
如果非要用一句话来形容现在的白酒行业,下面这句话或许最为贴切:天塌下来,有高个子顶着;山压下来,有茅台扛着。 当天只塌了一个小角的时候,高个子或许能顶住;当压下来的山只有那么一两座的时候,茅台或许能扛住。 作者︱余在洋 如果压在白酒头上的,不是一两座小山头,而是整整10座大山的时候,恐怕是连茅台都要扛不住了。 2024年的白酒市场,因为茅台酒的价格出现暴跌,让人感受到了一丝凉意,但并没有浇灭白酒商家们心中的希望。 2025年被各地不断加码的"禁酒令",直奔白酒厂商的命根子,一刀切下去,直接切掉了以往让酒厂酒商们趋之若鹜的"消费场景"——公务招待"不上烟,不 上酒"的规定,被有些地方放大为"24小时全天候禁酒",在高压之下,白酒的消费场景断崖式下跌。 这种抄后路的做法,让为地方带来大量税收的酒厂该怎么破?让那些响应国家号召,拼命在活跃市场、刺激消费、促进流通的酒商们的日子又该怎么过? 可以说,2025年导致白酒暴跌的不止一个"禁酒令"。连同其在内,一共有10座大山需要白酒厂商们翻越,它们分别是:库存积压、消费降级、新禁酒令、产 能过剩、资本降温、年轻人逃离酒桌、养生潮下的健康焦虑、对内的价格血战、对外的国际化遇 ...
食饮行业周报(2025年5月第4期):新消费掘金低位股,白酒待筑底拐点
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-02 02:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].
白酒行业,到底了吗?
集思录· 2025-05-21 14:10
看了一圈雪球,评论都很主观和没有逻辑,尤其是对于"年轻人不喝酒"这个话题 先说下我的观点,白酒的三大消费群: 1. 政府消费,现在禁酒 2. 商务消费,整体经营困难,带着商务消费下降 3. 居民消费,年轻人接不上力 所以不看好,白酒会持续性衰退,除非1和2有转机,还有一个想象空间是出口。 p.s. 现在对白酒的一些论调,很像当时房价下跌 三四线城市房价跌,一二线城市不会受影响 白酒消费整体减弱,大家都去好酒喝高端酒 学区房还是能保持住。 ymz1996 很多年前,我4元多买了长城汽车,然后看到最多的讨论就是国内汽车已经饱和了,道路无法 承受,然后就卖出了,结果....... 现在这么多年过去了,也没人说汽车饱和,道路拥挤了。 nvidia 这个东西涨上天也和我去无关。因为我不喝 身边也没人喝。巴菲特说不懂不做。 谁不想三五好友,小酌微熏,相谈甚欢呢。 铁骨素心 一二看看餐饮就知道了,高端餐饮成片的倒闭,中低端餐饮同样举步维艰 三的话更确定,第一是年轻人玩法不一样了,第二是年轻人哪来的钱消费高端白酒? ecowmy 一瓶茅台1499要抢,里面有什么吃了会爽翻天的东西么?除了送礼面子工程 抢购撸羊毛 金 融属性 ...
中经酒业周报∣5月上旬白酒环比价格总指数下跌,茅台酱香酒确定3家电商平台运营商,多家酒企人事变动
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 09:46
Industry Dynamics - In early May 2025, the national white liquor price index decreased by 0.05% to 99.95, with famous liquor down 0.04% and local liquor down 0.12, while base liquor remained stable at 100.00 [4] - The wholesale price index for white liquor increased by 8.84% year-on-year, with famous liquor up 10.92% [4] - Analysts attribute the decline in the price index to industry adjustments, weak consumption, and a restructuring of the pricing system, particularly in wedding banquet scenarios [4] - Four new liquor industry standards will be implemented starting November 1, 2025, covering various fruit wines and cooking yellow wine [5] - The "Chinese Whisky Plan" aims to tackle common technical challenges in the whisky industry with a budget exceeding 5 million yuan, targeting the establishment of core patents and technical guidelines within two years [7] - Guizhou province announced 11 liquor projects with a total investment of approximately 9.42 billion yuan, focusing on various production and logistics initiatives [7] - The establishment of the Qionglai Wine Industry College aims to foster innovation and collaboration between government, academia, and industry [8] Company Dynamics - Moutai's sauce-flavored liquor company has selected three e-commerce platforms for its theme terminal store operations, including Meituan, Ele.me, and Douyin [9] - Several personnel changes have occurred in various liquor companies, including new appointments at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan and Moutai Cultural Tourism [9] - Zhenjiu Lidou plans to launch a new mid-to-high-end product priced between 500 to 600 yuan, targeting the market segment around 2000 yuan [10] - Hong Kong-listed China Environmental Energy has changed its name to "Du Fu Liquor Group," focusing on modern liquor production and sales [11]
白酒市场寒意袭人,酒企如何应对“内卷”与消费降级挑战?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 13:25
中国酒业分析师肖竹青指出,当前白酒消费降级趋势明显,高端白酒需求不足,价格倒挂,库存积压。曾经的主流消费群体如房地产、大基建和金融行业 受到冲击,名酒企业开始转型大众民酒赛道,注重极致性价比。同时,一线名酒渠道下沉,给各省市区域酒厂带来了巨大压力。 为了应对行业内卷,头部名白酒企业纷纷发力百元以内的高性价比口粮酒。例如,江苏洋河股份推出了59元和99元的高性价比平民名酒,泸州老窖亮相了 69元的光瓶泸州老窖二曲,古井贡集团则重点推出了80元和45元的平价酒。这些举措进一步挤压了县级小酒厂的生存空间。 酒业正面临着多重挑战,包括国际环境不确定性加剧、国内消费动能转换、存量竞争与产能过剩矛盾凸显以及传统渠道与新兴模式博弈升级等。去年全 年,白酒行业经历了"先热后冷"的过程,春节前期需求旺盛,但随后整体动销放缓。今年上半年,白酒行业整体呈现产量上升、收入增长、利润提升的特 点,但分化明显,消费双理性及存量时代特征显著;下半年则呈现出强集中、强分化的发展态势。 今年的白酒市场似乎笼罩在一层寒意之中,这一趋势在被誉为酒类行业风向标的成都全国春季糖酒会(春糖会)上得到了直观体现。与往届人声鼎沸的场 景不同,今年的春糖会酒 ...
泸州老窖(000568):一季度环比改善,销售增长中枢下沉
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-05-09 11:30
食品饮料 分析师:刘冉 登记编码:S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 一季度环比改善,销售增长中枢下沉 ——泸州老窖(000568)业绩点评 证券研究报告-年报点评 谨慎增持(首次) 市场数据(2025-05-08) | 收盘价(元) | 127.18 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 192.74/100.02 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,852.90 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.73 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,868.48 | | 基础数据(2025-03-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 34.08 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 2.25 | | 毛利率(%) | 86.51 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 9.16 | | 资产负债率(%) | 24.67 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 147,195.15/146,916.4 | | | 9 | B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 资料来源:中原证券研究所,聚源 相关报告 投资要点: 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 ...
泸州老窖:业绩点评:一季度环比改善,销售增长中枢下沉-20250509
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-05-09 10:23
相关报告 食品饮料 分析师:刘冉 登记编码:S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 一季度环比改善,销售增长中枢下沉 ——泸州老窖(000568)业绩点评 | 收盘价(元) | 127.18 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 192.74/100.02 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,852.90 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.73 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,868.48 | | 基础数据(2025-03-31) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 34.08 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 2.25 | | 毛利率(%) | 86.51 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 9.16 | | 资产负债率(%) | 24.67 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 147,195.15/146,916.4 | | | 9 | 证券研究报告-年报点评 谨慎增持(首次) B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 市场数据(2025-05-08) 资料来源:中原证券研究所,聚源 投资要点: 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 ...
山西汾酒(600809):25Q1经销商稳定增长 盈利端表现平稳
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 00:32
Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 36.011 billion and 12.243 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 16.523 billion and 6.648 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue reached 35.875 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% [1] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.96%, with revenues of 26.532 billion and 9.342 billion yuan for mid-to-high-end and other liquors, respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, liquor revenue was 16.480 billion yuan, with revenue from Fenjiu and other liquors at 16.212 billion and 0.268 billion yuan, respectively [2] Market Dynamics - In 2024, revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets was 13.500 billion and 22.374 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [1] - The number of distributors increased by 613 to 4,553, while the average scale per distributor decreased by 2.88% to 7.3657 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, provincial and out-of-province revenues were 6.083 billion and 10.396 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% [2] Profitability Analysis - In 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin were 76.20% and 34.00%, respectively, with increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 78.80% and 40.23%, with changes of +1.34 and -0.60 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 68.47% year-on-year to 12.172 billion yuan in 2024, while in Q1 2025, it decreased by 0.21% to 7.027 billion yuan [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth of 8%, 9%, and 9% for 2025-2027, reaching 39 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% for the same period, reaching 13 billion, 14.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The revised earnings forecast reflects a weaker consumption environment for liquor [3]