Core Points - Iraq has resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region to Türkiye after a hiatus of over two and a half years, following an interim agreement involving Iraq's Federal Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil producers [1][2] - The agreement allows for the transport of 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Türkiye's Ceyhan port, with plans to increase this volume to 230,000 bpd [2][6] - The resumption of exports is expected to alleviate economic pressures in the Kurdistan region, which has been facing salary delays and service cuts [3] Industry Impact - Iraq, as the second-largest oil producer in OPEC, exports approximately 3.4 million barrels per day from its southern ports, and the addition of northern exports is anticipated to enhance overall production capacity [3][4] - The U.S. government has supported the restart of exports, viewing increased supply as a means to potentially lower crude prices [5] - Eight oil companies in Iraqi Kurdistan, which account for over 90% of the region's production, have reached agreements to resume exports under the new deal [5][6] Future Plans - The preliminary plan requires the KRG to deliver at least 230,000 bpd to the State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO), with an additional 50,000 bpd allocated for local use [6] - The involved parties are scheduled to meet within 30 days to discuss settling outstanding debts owed by the KRG to producers [6]

Core Viewpoint - DNO ASA has been instructed to prepare for oil exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline starting on 27 September 2025, following agreements among the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies [1]. Group 1: Export Operations - DNO will deliver the Kurdistan Regional Government's share of sales from the Tawke license, averaging 38,000 barrels per day, for export [2]. - The foreign contractor group, including DNO and Genel Energy International Limited, will continue selling an average of 30,000 barrels per day to local buyers under existing contracts [2]. - DNO has opted not to engage directly in exports at this time, continuing to sell oil on a cash-and-carry basis at prices in the low USD 30s per barrel [3]. Group 2: Buyer Arrangements - Buyers have established their own arrangements to place oil purchased from DNO into the export pipeline, which supports the larger export project [4]. Group 3: Agreements and Financials - The agreements between the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and participating international oil companies will end at year-end, with the first payment expected to be USD 14 per barrel after transportation costs, anticipated in mid-December [5]. - This payment figure will be adjusted in 2026 based on evaluations by a Baghdad-designated consultant [5]. Group 4: Production Expansion - DNO has launched a major production expansion program at the Tawke and Peshkabir fields to replace equipment damaged during July drone attacks, with plans to drill eight wells in 2026 targeting production of 100,000 barrels per day [6]. - The company emphasizes the need for immediate, predictable, and continuous flow of funds to support this ambitious program [6].

Group 1 - The meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump aims to negotiate an end to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, but analysts doubt a lasting solution will be achieved [1][2] - Putin is expected to leverage the meeting to extract concessions from the US, potentially expanding the agenda beyond Ukraine to include geopolitical and economic cooperation, such as energy deals and arms control [2][3] - Analysts suggest that Trump’s reluctance to impose severe sanctions directly on Russia may expose his vulnerabilities during the negotiations, as he has preferred to target Russia's allies instead [3][4] Group 2 - Despite appearing to hold an advantageous position, Putin is under pressure from international sanctions, labor shortages, and high inflation, which may weaken his negotiating stance [5] - The Russian economy is struggling, with significant fiscal deficits exacerbated by declining oil revenues, indicating a fragile economic situation [5] - There are concerns that any agreements reached may come at the expense of Ukraine, particularly if territorial concessions are made, which could lead to an unsustainable resolution [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 11, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three major markets declined slightly. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced over the weekend due to potential misunderstandings about the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Iran's plan to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, and changes in gasoline and diesel inventories in different regions. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a risk of decline due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, which supports the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is predicted to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production schedule [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From August 4 - 8, 2025, WTI prices decreased from $66.29 to $63.88, Brent from $68.76 to $66.59, and Dubai from $70.64 to $69.22. SC decreased from 514.30 to 489.80. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Ukraine's armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. Iran vowed to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. There might be a misunderstanding about Russia's cease - fire requirements by Trump's envoy. Canada plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. OPEC's oil production in July increased by 270,000 barrels per day compared to June. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, and China responded that its energy cooperation with Russia is legitimate. India continues to import Russian oil but the quantity may decline. Russian crude export price discounts have widened [3][4][5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of August 1, US crude exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 30,000 barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels (a 0.71% decline), the four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.61% year - on - year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 174,000 barrels per day to 5.962 million barrels per day. From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically unchanged. Chinese refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries declined [6]. 3.4 Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil dropped this week, and geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced. Global oil inventories increased, and refinery profits rebounded after the price decline. Near - term fundamentals are volatile. Supply may decline due to sanctions, OPEC+ exports are expected to accelerate, and third - quarter refinery operations are expected to be stronger. The peak of supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the price is expected to be volatile and fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and non - OPEC production schedules [6].

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of oil exports through the northern pipeline in the Kurdistan region of Iraq is contingent upon whether the relevant companies have received a finalized written agreement [1] Group 1 - The oil and gas company Apikur in the Kurdistan region of Iraq is involved in discussions regarding the resumption of oil exports [1] - The decision to restart oil exports is dependent on the receipt of a definitive written agreement by the involved companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's oil export is expected to range between 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day this year, influenced by current production cuts and regional stability concerns [1] Group 1: Oil Export Projections - Iran's oil export volume is projected to be between 1.7 million and 1.8 million barrels per day for the current year [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Dynamics - OPEC+ has maintained a good level of idle capacity despite the ongoing production cuts [1] Group 3: Market Risks - Any attacks in the region are likely to significantly increase oil prices, regardless of the supply situation [1]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia's oil export revenue decreased by 16.09% year-on-year in March [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil export revenue indicates potential challenges for the Saudi economy, which heavily relies on oil exports [1] - This drop may impact the global oil market dynamics, as Saudi Arabia is one of the largest oil exporters [1] - The decrease in revenue could lead to adjustments in Saudi Arabia's fiscal policies and budget planning [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan's Energy Minister announced that the country plans to export 55 million tons of oil through the Caspian Pipeline this year [1] Group 1 - The planned oil export volume of 55 million tons indicates a significant commitment to maintaining energy supply [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia's maritime oil product exports increased by 3.4% month-on-month in March [1]