Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a bearish view, and the market is considered to be on the weaker side [3]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate is slow, and its price trend may remain weak [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 58,860 yuan, down 1,520 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 386,145 lots, down 1,995 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 287,506 lots, up 3,899 lots from T - 1. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,100 yuan, down 1,580 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 105,761 lots, up 9,832 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 149,266 lots, up 15,121 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 33,884 lots, up 30 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was 2,040 yuan, up 920 yuan from T - 1; the basis between spot and 2509 contract was 1,800 yuan, up 980 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 677 dollars, down 3 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,233 yuan/ton, down 562 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1]. - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week. Among them, smelter inventory was 56,235 tons, downstream inventory was 41,616 tons, and other inventory was 33,720 tons [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

Group 1 - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in China reached approximately 106,500 tons by the end of February 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.18% [1] - End users are replenishing their inventories based on demand, leading to a noticeable increase in inventory levels among lithium salt manufacturers [1] Group 2 - Xinluo Information, established in 2010, primarily serves the carbon, lithium battery, and electric furnace steel industries, focusing on industry research and consulting services [2] - The company provides a range of services including databases, industry forecasts, strategic consulting, and media promotion [2]